Weekly Bets Thread

[SmittyBacall]

On 9/11/2022 at 10:35 AM, Broncofan said:

Hollywood Brown o5.5 catches +100 finally showed up.  Added for 2U. 

This killed me yesterday from pulling in a 55U parlay. 

Parlayed receiving milestones for Pittman Jr., Kirk, Hurst, AJ Brown, and Marquise Brown.

[Broncofan]

11 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

This killed me yesterday from pulling in a 55U parlay. 

Parlayed receiving milestones for Pittman Jr., Kirk, Hurst, AJ Brown, and Marquise Brown.

There were 3 bad calls that weren't close - Ceedee Lamb, Hollywood Brown and Dameon Pierce rush props.  Always best to learn from them.

I'd be very concerned if I was a Brown fantasy owner - in a gamescript that was absolutely catchup - they just went away from him a ton.   That's a game where you should get 12+ targets.    

I did mention how bad I think ARI is - obv KC is a great O.   But what worries me is we've seen ARI be this bad before - and I don't think it's just 2H season narrative.   The common thread the last season and now this one - the ARI D is just very mediocre when they don't have bigtime DL pressure.   Without Watt & Chandler Jones, they are prone to getting abused.    And on O, man, when Kyler faces adversity - it hasn't been pretty.  

I think this graphic is very useful - not to talk about the QB - but to talk about the vulnerable pass D's.  I'm going to lean on this for next weeks' props.

I'm hoping he keeps publishing data like this - it ID's the D's to target.  This would strongly suggest not just the ARI pass D, but also the Giants, Raiders, Jets & Lions pass D.  Now sure, you can say Mahomes/Allen/Herbert are elite, but if you keep seeing the same above average EPA/completion% above expected, it's definitely also on the D.  And it's hard to convince me Tannehill & Hurts are elite passers.

I can definitely say the CHI-SF data can be thrown out - I've never seen field conditions like that before.  

[Dash]

On 9/11/2022 at 3:14 PM, BayRaider said:

Please Adams, please!!!

Also, damnit… I knew I should have picked Patterson over Harris. 

Knew I couldn't be the only one that saw value with the Jax/Was game. Went 100% Dotson too. Unfortunately Henry and Mitchell sank some lineups. 

[BayRaider]

4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I can definitely say the CHI-SF data can be thrown out - I've never seen field conditions like that before.  

There was a Miami/Pittsburgh game years ago that was worse, I think it was even a primetime game. Absolutely frickin terrible…. one of the worst NFL games I have watched. 

[Broncofan]

BTW this is the time to look for special bet boosts - B365 has a Javonte Williams TD +400 2U bet boost (instead of +100) for Javonte Williams (max bet is 2U), so even though the SEA rush D is better than their pass D, and MG3 is taking 45 percent of the work, well...

 

Edited September 12, 2022 by Broncofan

[BayRaider]

This one: https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/271126023

[TakeTheBallDeep]

Had the following bets Week 1 and went 5-2

Rams +2.5

Steelers +6.5

Lions +4.5

Texans +8.5

Dolphins -3

Jags +3

Vikes +2

Going to post my results as the year goes on, if I do well then maybe make some money and if I stink do the opposite lol

Week 2 I have already bet the Titans +10 at Buffalo. The Bills are great but this feels like a massive overreaction to that Thursday night game plus the Titans losing to the Giants 

Also like

Steelers +1

Bengals -7

 

[Broncofan]

19 minutes ago, TakeTheBallDeep said:

Had the following bets Week 1 and went 5-2

Rams +2.5

Steelers +6.5

Lions +4.5

Texans +8.5

Dolphins -3

Jags +3

Vikes +2

Going to post my results as the year goes on, if I do well then maybe make some money and if I stink do the opposite lol

Week 2 I have already bet the Titans +10 at Buffalo. The Bills are great but this feels like a massive overreaction to that Thursday night game plus the Titans losing to the Giants 

Also like

Steelers +1

Bengals -7

 

 

I can't explain it, but with this regime, the Titans are awful as ATS favorites, and they are monsters as ATS dogs (especially at home).    If you blindly just bet against them as faves and back them as dogs (especially at home), I think the success rate is over 75 percent.  Wild. 

The uncertainty with NYG's OL and WR corps was why I didn't back NYG as a dog, but once again, TEN's Jekyll/Hyde nature as a favorite/dog is just crazy.

Edited September 12, 2022 by Broncofan

[BayRaider]

So life savings on Broncos -6.5 or call 1-800-Gambler @Forge @Broncofan

[BayRaider]

How about these props?

Sutton at least 1 TD

Jeudy 60+ receiving yards

Metcalf 59+ receiving yards

Broncos points over 25

[Broncofan]

56 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

So life savings on Broncos -6.5 or call 1-800-Gambler @Forge @Broncofan

Personally I think the player props are way easier than -6.5.  

I had DEN as a 90 percent win prob, and a 70 percent to cover -4, and 60 for -6.5, until 2 guys were out - our ILB Jewell (why I like the Penny prop so much), and now news our best RT, Billy Turner, isn't playing tonight.

I'm still on DEN, but -6.5 is probably more like 55-60 percent cover.  That's not mortgage territory lol.  

And FTR, 90 percent is the highest you can ever bank - there's never a 100 percent.   But with those 2 out, it's a 80 percent win prob IMO.   The spread, though, not so great with those 2 out.  

[Broncofan]

21 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

How about these props?

Sutton at least 1 TD

Jeudy 60+ receiving yards

Metcalf 59+ receiving yards

Broncos points over 25

The issue with Metcalf is he might get the Surtain treatment.  It's a new staff, so no one knows if they believe in shadow coverage with PS2.  If he shadows anyone, even Metcalf, NO WAY I'm taking the over.  If he's sticks to one side, then sure, I can see it.

Problem is outside of our inability to stop the run consistently, and our better talent on O vs. their D, I don't have a feel for our staff's tendencies.  It's why I stuck to Jeudy/Sutton rec yd props and Penny rush props.

Edited September 12, 2022 by Broncofan

[N4L]

I am teasing the under with denver tonight. Denver winning with the game going under 50 feels like a good bet to me. Seattle probably tries to keep the pace down tonight to control the ball. 

I also have played the over 39.5 rushing yards for Melvin Gordon. Seems like that backfield is a more of a split than Vegas assumes and the discrepancy between javonte's prop and melvin's is large enough that it screams value to me. 

I have also parlayed Gordon over rushing yards, Javonte over 69.5 rushing yards, and the Denver ML. It is a correlated parlay. If Denver wins, its likely they have a solid night on the ground. 

I am interested to see how Seattle's LBs look without Wagner. Very possible there is a big hole in the middle of that field for the denver RBs to break big gains. 

 

[BayRaider]

@Broncofan Wilson 22+ pass attempts?

[N4L]

1 hour ago, TakeTheBallDeep said:

Week 2 I have already bet the Titans +10 at Buffalo. The Bills are great but this feels like a massive overreaction to that Thursday night game plus the Titans losing to the Giants 

This fits one of @Broncofans rules about the Titans. He only bets on them when they are underdogs. 

I will have more thoughts on this game later in the week, but for now, the thing that really worries me, even with 10 points to play with, is that Buffalo tends to win games by double digits. 

Last season, they went 11-6. Only one of those wins was by 10 points or less. They are the type of team that gets a lead and keeps their foot on the gas. 

Glad you had a great first week!