Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

18 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

I've ran through all of the games a few times and I don't feel overly confident on too many games. 

Some I like though: 

Cardinals (+6) vs Chiefs

Vikings (+1.5) vs Packers

Ravens (-6.5) at Jets

I took the Chiefs when it was -3.5, but wasn't confident enough to call it at -6.5 (I'd still go DEN -6.5 even though I got the opener at -4, FWIW), but if I were forced to, I'd lean that way.

A few points on why:

-Cards lost Chandler Jones to KC (!!!), and now JJ Watt is hurting.   The ARI D is very mediocre without Watt; without Jones & Watt, OMG it's a bad draw.   I know KC in theory has a huge drop in WR production, and I think it's legit - but I don't see it playing out this week.   Getting pressure on Mahomes is the easiest way to expose those WR issues, but I don't see ARI's D as being able to.

-KC's O has also decided to incorporate more FB-formation schemes.  It's actually a key counter to 2-high safety schemes that give O's problems like it did for KC last year.

-On the flip side, not only does Arizona miss Nuk Hopkins for the first 6 weeks, but both Rondale Moore & Zach Ertz are likely to miss the game.   I'm really disappointed - because books have held off on Hollywood Brown's props, and I was going to hammer O5.5 recs - now I doubt they even put up a line until really late.   And likely it's not going to be juiced.   But for ATS purposes, this makes ARI's O incredibly predictable.   

As much as I hate the result, I think KC wins by 10+ here.    Make it a week 10 matchup, I'm totally with you, but that's a terrible combo of personnel matchups I see above.

The other 2 I'm totally on with you.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Broncofan

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Early on is the best chance to get the books but its definitely tough to know just how good everyone is

1 of Den-SF-Cinn-Indy-Balt will lose outright 

[NYRaider]

4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

The other 2 I'm totally on with you.

How do you feel about the Eagles/Lions and Patriots/Dolphins games?

[Broncofan]

13 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Early on is the best chance to get the books but its definitely tough to know just how good everyone is

1 of Den-SF-Cinn-Indy-Balt will lose outright 

If there's a team that screams upset, it's IND.    New scheme, the OL still hasn't got it's LT situation sorted out (Matt Pryor still the guy, Raimann needs time), and even Danny Pinter isn't as great as their 2020 days.   More importantly, no Shaq Leonard, and a new scheme that's known to be more vanilla.  On the flip side, HOU has improved both their OL and DL a ton this offseason.   If I had a lean now, I'd go HOU +7.   But I'm not so sure I'm all the way to HOU ML.   Looking back, this might be the dog shot I regret passing up on my card (esp with the juiced odds).   I've adjusted my IND win probability to 65 percent, which means HOU wins 1 in 3 games in this setting.

I'm still very much on DEN -6.5 but I thought it was a 10-14 pt victory (and I got -4, no brainer).   Us losing Jewell does give SEA's path of leaning on the run game to contract the clock some hope.  But it's probably raised the win probability for SEA from 10 to 20-25 percent there - big increase, but ultimately there's a massive talent and game management edge DEN's way, I'd still go that way (but not as much of a "lock of the week" type feel for a fave).  

SF/BAL are just facing either bad talent (CHI) or decimated key areas (NYJ's OL issues combined with Flacco is a terrible combo).   Those I give the faves an 80+ percent win probability.  The same holds for PIT, mainly because their OL is still a big issue IMO, and backing Mitch Trubisky is always a bad idea until he shows you something.   I put SF in all my survivor pools, because everyone seems to be on BAL lol.

Still every game has uncertainty, simply because TO's matter so much, and aren't predictable.   Great stat I saw last year to begin the season, in the previous 10 years, teams that win the TO battle +1 win 65 percent of games, teams that go 2+ win 90 percent, and 3+ 96 percent.   TAM's Week 1 win over DAL last year at -4 was such an anomaly.  On the flip side, our dreadful 7-10 team crushed DAL on the road partly because we were +5 in TO's when you count the blocked punt that we recovered and advanced for a first down (very definition of a turnover in practice).   

When we look back at the upset bettors didn't see coming, it's almost certainly going to be a -2 TO differential game.   

Edited September 10, 2022 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

3 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Early on is the best chance to get the books but its definitely tough to know just how good everyone is

1 of Den-SF-Cinn-Indy-Balt will lose outright 

I could see the Steelers upsetting the Bengals, Super Bowl losers historically play poorly week one the following season. And the Steelers upset the Bills on the road last year to start the season.

[Broncofan]

10 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

How do you feel about the Eagles/Lions and Patriots/Dolphins games?

I love PHI....but I can't deny DET's ATS excellence last year.   I figure something like PHI comfortably up by 10+ all game long, and then a backdoor DET cover is coming.   FTR, I have taken PHI +300 to win division, and +1000 to be the 1 seed.  But I'd be stupid not to recognize DET maximized their output last year.    I put PHI in my ML parley, just don't want any ATS action.  But if you forced me to, yes, I'd go PHI -4. 

NE-MIA, it screams MIA winning big.   Patricia playing OC, it's in MIA...but man, it's an intra-divisional game.  They know each other so well.    Why I passed.

FTR, I have Hurts, Goedert & MIA D in my DFS lineups.  In a way, that's my way of hedging on my beliefs, without putting outright $ on PHI -4 and MIA -3

Edited September 10, 2022 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

I love PHI....but I can't deny DET's ATS excellence last year.   I figure something like PHI comfortably up by 10+ all game long, and then a backdoor DET cover is coming.   FTR, I have taken PHI +300 to win division, and +1000 to be the 1 seed.  But I'd be stupid not to recognize DET maximized their output last year.    I put PHI in my ML parley, just don't want any ATS action.  But if you forced me to, yes, I'd go PHI -4. 

NE-MIA, it screams MIA winning big.

FTR, I have Hurts, Goedert & MIA D in my DFS lineups.  In a way, that's my way of hedging on my beliefs, without putting outright $ on PHI -4 and MIA -3

You're the man, thanks for sharing. Anyone else you really like for DFS this week?

[Broncofan]

FTR, if you told me I had to take 5 dogs to win this weekend, in order of confidence, it would be:

JAX

MIN (no Lazard and almost certainly no LT Bakhtiari <why risk it if he's not even able to practice yet>, I think Jenkins plays, but even that could be an issue)

DAL (losing Smith at LT was a massive blow though, I was ready to include them until he went down)

HOU (see above)

LV (just hate putting any $ against Herbert, especially with a roster that addressed their OL, run D and pass rush - improving trenches is the path to SB glory when you have the great QB).

___________________________

For those that didn't follow this page - the biggest change I implemented last year was to be more dog-heavy - and frankly, I'm disappointed I only have 2/6 dogs in my ATS/ML/RACE plays.   But it's also why I only have 6 plays - because I keep leaning faves, and history has clearly shown that's not the right way to go.

FWIW, the other piece of info to retain - teams that win ATS of 6 pts or less, win 90+ percent of the time.    Now, that's not THAT crazy of a stat - because it means that faves who cover ATS, that's obv 100 percent ML coverage.   But the key part is that a lot more dogs who win ATS with spreads of 6 or less - they win outright a ton.     It's why you see me on JAX/MIN ML, and then the higher payouts with RACES as a possible bigger payout and hedge against a late comeback.

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

You're the man, thanks for sharing. Anyone else you really like for DFS this week?

Aaron Jones, Christian Kirk are definitely making into lineups.     If it's a close game and GB is trailing, then it's Aaron Jones all day (of course this will be the game he gets hurt early lol).

[NYRaider]

14 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Aaron Jones, Christian Kirk are definitely making into lineups.     If it's a close game and GB is trailing, then it's Aaron Jones all day (of course this will be the game he gets hurt early lol).

Kirk is super under valued right now, he's going to have a crazy target share, IMO. 

On draft kings some of the other guys I like: Saquan Barkley (6,100), Michael Pittman Jr (5,500), Hollywood Brown (6,200), Pat Freiermuth (4,200), Trey Lance (6,000). 

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Kirk is super under valued right now, he's going to have a crazy target share, IMO. 

On draft kings some of the other guys I like: Saquan Barkley (6,100), Michael Pittman Jr (5,500), Hollywood Brown (6,200), Pat Freiermuth (4,200), Trey Lance (6,000). 

If you're going to do a Lance lineup - my advice is stack it with Brandon Aiyuk & Danny Gray.   You're basically counting on Lance to take all the key rush chunk plays or TD's - which means don't pair him with Deebo, since Deebo's big games almost always come with rush game (which limits your total output).  Then you take the 2 WR targets who he's going to use downfield.   If you want to get really game-theory-ish, correlate those with Cole Kmet at TE.   

The only reason I avoided it in DFS is the weather/wind, I love the props for O3.5 Aiyuk catches, and a Gray TD (along with Lance/Kmet), but the ceiling for 30+ pt DFS games may be lower.     But if you're taking Lance, unless you think it's the Lance running show, just a matter of which WR you pair with (like how I'm going Hurts - Goedert as a cheaper play off Hurts-AJ Brown).

[Dash]

Think for DFS it would be good to eat the chalk and take a combination of Henry/Taylor/Ekeler/Kamara/Mixon/Conner. Take the guaranteed volume,positive match ups and game script and go out from there. Should be plenty of value at the more violate WR position this week. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

I could see the Steelers upsetting the Bengals, Super Bowl losers historically play poorly week one the following season. And the Steelers upset the Bills on the road last year to start the season.

Im not heavily invested in Cincy week 1 but i think they are a better team this year, playing at home and i have no faith in Mitch. Despite how miserable Big Ben was down the stretch he at least had some veteran savy to lean on plus we know the Bills had some inconsistencies offensively but thats hindsight. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

1 minute ago, Dash said:

Think for DFS it would be good to eat the chalk and take a combination of Henry/Taylor/Ekeler/Kamara/Mixon/Conner. Take the guaranteed volume,positive match ups and game script and go out from there. Should be plenty of value at the more violate WR position this week. 

Violate a position? What kind of DFS leagues are you in?

[Broncofan]

9 minutes ago, Dash said:

Think for DFS it would be good to eat the chalk and take a combination of Henry/Taylor/Ekeler/Kamara/Mixon/Conner. Take the guaranteed volume,positive match ups and game script and go out from there. Should be plenty of value at the more violate WR position this week. 

If you only take chalk plays you basically eliminate any chance of winning big $.  Even if they all hit you’re sharing with 30 percent of the field.   The other part is if you take all RB chalk there’s a good chance your cheaper WR are chalk too.   Then you compound the effect.  
 

If you’re playing cash double ups no problem.  But if it’s a GPP tourney that’s just donating $.  Even if you win it’s small.  And high likelihood to lose in tourneys since only top 20 percent gets paid.  

Edited September 10, 2022 by Broncofan