Weekly Bets Thread

[JaguarCrazy2832]

On 9/10/2022 at 9:25 AM, NYRaider said:

I could see the Steelers upsetting the Bengals, Super Bowl losers historically play poorly week one the following season. And the Steelers upset the Bills on the road last year to start the season.

Well what the heck do I know lol Burrow playing like Mitch out there

[BayRaider]

In DFS I stacked the WAS/JAX game in majoroty of my lineups with Samuel/McLaurin/Kirk/Engram. So far Samuel and Kirk are crushing but McLaurin and Engram haven’t fone squat. I also have Swift in every lineup and he’s doing pretty well. 

[BayRaider]

I also took the Falcons defense in a lot of DFS teams because I’m a firm believer the Saints offense is trash. I will never understand the hype. Also took a lot of Dolphins and Titans. 

Edited September 11, 2022 by BayRaider

[BayRaider]

Please Adams, please!!!

Also, damnit… I knew I should have picked Patterson over Harris. 

Edited September 11, 2022 by BayRaider

[Broncofan]

On 9/6/2022 at 3:17 PM, Broncofan said:

All right, player props are starting to trickle in, so starting to get my Week 1 card in.  Some of these bets (ATS / ML picks) were placed over 10 days ago, so I'll try to refresh the new line:

ATS/ML/RACE's (assume -110 odds and 1U-result ATS/ML bets and 0.5U per RACE, if not listed otherwise)

TNF

WIN 2U - BUF ML -120 (at opening - now -135) EDIT:  Added in-game for another U - nothing against LAR, I have nothing but love for them.  But I just like the matchup here, especially with a bunch of guys hurting and coming back for LAR.   EDIT:  As posted later, live ML bet at halftime for -115 also hits.

EARLY SUN GAMES

LOSS 2.2U - SF -7 @ CHI 2.2U - yes, I know the Lance Q's remain.   SF is just better on both sides of the ball.  The Bears are just so talent-poor on both sides of the ball.   I honestly expect this could be a 31-14 type game.

WIN - BAL -7 @ NYJ - I took this before Zach Wilson got hurt, I have a lot of respect for Saleh, but this is going to take a while.  BAL has actual CB's back, which changes their D back to their usual stingy selves.   I think a 31-17 or 27-13 type game.

LOSE 1.3U - JAX +145 ML (now +120) / RACE  to 20/25/30 (+175/+325/+500) - people are finally getting the memo on JAX's improvements and WAS's struggles.    

LATE

WIN 1.9U -  MIN +110 ML / RACE to 20/25 (+160/+240) - as expected, the GB T's and Lazard are out.  Adding this in to the card, gotta have more dogs, intradivision and home dog fits the bill.

SNF

TAM/DAL U49.5 +100 2U (at opening, U51.5 now U50.0) - with all the OL issues on both sides of the ball, this line seems mega inflated.  I was considering DAL ML, but now both OL's are in serious trouble, so much easier to tackle the under here.  Think it's more likely to be 20-17 than 27-24.  

MNF

DEN -4 @ SEA (now 6.5) 2.2U - I hammered this at opening.  Won't lie, as long as it's -7 or better, I'd still back this.     

I've also played a 8-leg ML parley with BUF / JAX / SF / PHI / BAL / NO / KC / DEN for +3500 a week ago - with JAX / DEN lines moving, it's already down to +2700.    That's a total of 14U on ATS/ML/RACE's including the parley (only about 5-10 percent tops on parleys, 10 max) - but 2U are already in the bank with BUF W for 2U.

 

PLAYER PROPS (assume 1U-win result bets unless otherwise stated)

TNF

WIN 2U EDIT SEPT 8:  Josh Allen O37.5 rush yards - as posted later on in thread, played 1 hr before game time, hits easily with 48 yards.

EARLY

LOSS Trevor Lawrence O1.5 pass TD's +140 - better receivers, better OL, better coaching.  And a WAS pass D that was bottom 5 in DVOA.   Add in no Chase Young either.   You're giving me +140 on what seems like a -110 prop.  

EDIT  SEPT 11 PRE-GAME - VOIDED: Justin Fields O34.5 rush yards - Fields will be forced to run with his OL issues, and frankly, it's one of the few weapons CHI can leverage outside of Darrell Mooney and Cole Kmet (more on him later).   Last year he went for 100+ on SF, and I expect the new coaching staff to let Fields use his mobility more (something Nagy & co. didn't actually design - smh).   Weather keeps me from going any higher than a 1U win investment.  EDIT:  Voided with field/rain issues.

EDIT SEPT 11 PRE-GAME - VOIDED - : Brandon Aiyuk O3.5 catches +125 - with Kittle out, the chances of getting more targets his way goes up exponenentially.   The weather/wind are the only reasons I don't go with more than 1U, but with Lance's arm talent, I don't see as much of an issue.  EDIT:  Voided with weather / field issues.

WIN 2U Christian Kirk O55.5 rec yards (EDIT: 2U win total) - this is a total reflection of Kirk's past volume, and ignores the fact he's Trevor Lawrence's main target option.   Then you add a WAS D that's very vulnerable to the pass game, and man, this is again at least 10+ yards too low.  

LOSS Christian McCaffrey O5.5 catches +120 (now O4.5 -145) - when CMC is healthy, he goes 6+ catches on 70+ percent of games.   Again, you're giving me +120, I'll take those odds.

WIN DJ Moore O60.5 rec yards - I'll go with a guy who can get 61+ in 1 play...but also has had at least 7 targets in every game (he played 16), 8+ targets in 12/16 games last year, and 10+ in 9/17.   Volume = yards with a better QB.   I could take O5.5 catches at +125, but realizing he gets Denzel Ward a lot, I'll take the yardage prop instead, even with a lower payout (more important to just take the easier path to a W).

EDIT SEPT 11 PREGAME - VOIDED - Cole Kmet O3.5 catches +100 (now -130) O34.5 yards - besides Mooney, the focal point of the CHI O.  I expect negative game script, which is only more garbage time for him.  I'd love to see him at 4/40 by halftime, but I'm willing to be patient lol.  EDIT:  VOIDED DUE TO FIELD/WEATHER

WIN AJ Brown O65.5 rec yards - man, there are 2 main targets in the PHI O - and AJB is going to soak up a 30+ percent target share.   You give me that, I'm going to easily put his number at 75+.    

WIN Dallas Goedert O45.5 rec yards - did I mention the 2nd target?    Again, this is a number that is at least 10 yards too low.   I'll gladly take this now.

LOSS EDIT SUNDAY AM Dameon Pierce O47.5 rush yards - with Shaq Leonard out, I have to take a shot here.   This number should be at 60+ yards.   

WIN EDIT SUNDAY AM Michael Pittman O63.5 rec yards - with the gamescript making this a much closer game than IND -7 initially, I'm comfortable with Pittman, who should feast with his QB connection improved 

LATE

WIN 1.5U Patrick Mahomes O2.5 pass TD's +150 - with the news that JJ Watt has a calf injury and is day-to-day, that absolutely crushes their D.   I know with Tyreek Hill gone, ppl are concerned that there is no alpha.   But they can just spread it around with Mahomes tossing the ball.  Rather than figure out who gets the ball, I'm happy to take +150 odds for what I see is a 50/50 prop.  The 'Zona secondary can be beat, so give me +150 odds on an elite QB, I'm in.

WIN 1.7U Justin Herbert O2.5 pass TD's +165 - this is even crazier IMO.    The weakest area of the LV D is their secondary.   The LAC OL is improved again.   50-50 prop that is +165?  Sign me up.

WIN Saquon Barkley O26.5 rec yards - the new Daboll O works off the Andy Reid tree, which emphasizes using the pass game with RB's as an extension of their run game.   This number will likely be closer to 40+ in 2+ weeks time, assuming Barkley stays healthy.   

LOSS Austin Hooper O22.5 rec yards - Hooper is almost certainly the #2 target in TEN right now, and while it's going to be based around Derrick Henry, NYG's TE D is abysmal.   He could get this in the first 20 mins of play, and even though he's just an average athlete, a seam route could get this in 1 play.   For a guy with a clear path to 5-6 targets and a bad D, I'll gladly take this low number.

LOSS Hollywood Brown O5.5 catches 2U

EDIT SUN AM:  Was given a 0.5U free bet - so I'm going to go YOLO here and go with Pierce O47.5 rush yds / Pittman O63.5 rec yards / Kirk O54.5 rec yards / Kmet O34.5 rec yds / Hooper O23.5 rec yds / Goedert O45.5 rec yds prop 6-leg parley for +5000 (totals slightly different than above 2-3 days later).

So now I'm up to 18U in player props (1-0 with TNF with late edition Josh Allen O38.5 rush yards hitting)

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

TNF

Lance McCutcheon +750 / +11000 2+ (0.4U/0.1U)****VOIDED**** - this is a VERY longshot prop, and it depends on 2 factors - first, Van Jefferson has to be inactive.   If Van J is active, then I'm pulling the bet (B365 allows me to, voids it as well if he's inactive).   Secondly, McCutcheon himself has to be active (because the other depth guys play ST, he could still be inactive - most books will void this bet in that case, however).    But if the above scenario happens, McCutcheon could easily be the RZ 3rd WR - and they are carrying fewer TE's to keep him, so he's potentially in EZ package plays.  I think he's way more talented than Skronek, so if he's active, we could see him used much like LAC uses Donald Parham (EZ/RZ special plays). 

Isiah McKenzie +350 / +4000 2+ (0.4U/0.1U) EDIT - 2nd bet at +450/+5000 (0.4U/0.1U) - This is as much about McKenzie's price and fact he's the slot guy.  Now, I know Jalen Ramsey played a ton of slot in 2021 - but as Darious Williams exits and David Long enters, it's far more likely Long stays in the slot.   Long's decent, but in the RZ, it's so hard to keep McKenzie in check.   Still, it's a longshot play, so not getting too invested, but I love the odds here.  EDIT:  With the odds pregame going up to +450/+5000 2+, I loaded a 2nd bet, as posted later.  

EARLY

EDIT SEPT 11 PREGAME - VOIDED - Trey Lance +200 (now +175) / +1800 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - Eli Mitchell banged up and a lot of new RB's in new roles.   No more Mostert.  Jerry Wilson Jr. could rain on this parade, but I love me some Cam-like game potential.  It's enough to bend my "take +250 or better) rule here.  EDIT:  VOIDED with weather/field issues.

EDIT SEPT 11 PREGAME - VOIDED : Danny Gray +1200 / +12500 2+ - another ripple effect from the Kittle injury, if there's pass work, more spread around, and I don't see the TE's getting it.  Gotta take a shot with these odds on Gray, who seems to have won at least a share of WR3 work over Juan Jennings.  EDIT:  VOIDED (also inactive)

LOSS Cole Kmet +375 / +4500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - keeping up with the Kmet love for the TD prop.   If anything, he's more of a target with the TE vulture Jimmy Graham gone.   This is way too low.   If I'm having a good start, I may increase this stake. 

LOSS Demetric Felton +750 / +11000 2+ (0.4U/0.1U) - he's apparently getting regular slot work.   Again, those odds are just crazy.  Worth a play.

 

LATE

LOSS - omeo Doubs +375 / +4000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U)*** - this could get pulled like McCutcheon - but I'm dropping this in now, before news on Allen Lazard's availability comes out.  If Lazard is inactive, Doubs' odds are going to drop like a rock.   I want the near +400 / +4000 bet in before I know what Lazard's status is.  If he's active, I'll consider pulling it before gametime.  But if he's out or iffy, then giddy up on the guy with the biggest physical matchup advantage. 

LOSS - Kyle Phillips +800 / +12500 2+ (0.4U/0.1U) - I must be missing something here, as I do think Phillips is going to see significant snaps in the slot.   While his RZ PT is uncertain and he's not a big guy, he's shifty and gets separation.  At +800/+125000 this is simply too wide.    Have to take a shot here.

MNF

Eric Saubert +750 / +11000 (0.4U/0.1U) - this is where local knowledge helps.  Albert O is in the doghouse because of blocking issues - which means Saubert & Eric Tomlinson are going to see a lot more snaps early on (Greg Dulcich is on IR).   I definitely want a stab here and frankly, if I'm having a good weekend, I may increase the stake accordingly.

Interesting, there are very few games without TD props, so I'm likely pretty much done for now - that's 6U, but I may sprinkle another 0.5-1U here so far.

UPDATE SEPT 7: So that's now 29U in props, and that's pretty much at my limit.  Obviously if TNF goes well, it reduces my exposure, so then we can see if there are better options.    One nice thing with B365 - I can void the bets pretty much any time before game time (and if the player is inactive, it auto-voids).    So if your book does NOT allow this - then maybe wait (but then you also run the risk of a much worse line as gametime nears - as always, it's your $, your call).

UPDATE SEPT 9:  34U total weekly stake, but that counts TNF's bets, which went 4-0, and leave me +6.0U so far, and "only" 29U at stake.  Still, that's enough for now.   If anything, I may pull back on the CMC prop, or a game with weather concerns.

UPDATE SEPT 11: 38U total weekly stake, but again, with a 6.0U profit so far and 4-0 total, I'm risking 32U, plus the free bet 6-prop parley. A little higher over my max, but Week 1 is one where the leverage is in our favor.  BOL!

UPDATE SEPT 11 PREGAME:  SF-CHI bets voided except Kmet TD & SF -7 props; now 32U total slate, risking 26U today.

ATS/ML/RACE

2-1 ATS, 1-1 RACE (JAX win RACE to 20, but lose the others, MIN win ML & RACE to 20)

It came down to 1 play & 1 missed 35 yard FG - Travis Etienne drops a walk in TD in the 2Q that gets JAX 7 more points, then the next drive (after a WAS punt), the missed FG.     Even if WAS somehow overcame those extra 7-10 pts - all 3 RACES to 20/25/30 win, instead of a ML L and RACE to 25/30 as L's.   Oh well.   Still a good day with ATS/ML

DAL/TB U49.5 +100 & DEN -4 (now -6.5) still left.

+1.4U

 

PLAYER PROPS

9-5

The Etienne drop really stings because it also cost me a +125 O1.5 TD prop on Trevor Lawrence.   Ah well, that's the life of gambling.    And frankly, being able to void the Lance TD / Aiyuk catch / Kmet catch & yard prop all saved me with the monsoon conditions.   So I can't be too unhappy, especially since I hit Kirk for 2U & the 2 QB plus money hits (Etienne literally cost me 2.5U here and 7.5U in ML/RACE - ah well).

+7.2U

No props pending so far, adding tonight

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

1-4 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets, lose with Kmet/Phillips/Doubs/Felton).

Because I win with 0.8U at +400 combined, this still gets me slightly ahead.   Felton was a bad play, never really saw the field, but Kmet / Phillips / Doubs were a big part of the O (or in Kmet's case, he is).   Phillips & Doubs both got RZ looks, and Doubs got tackled at the 9 and 2 with only 1 guy to beat.  Way it goes. 

+1.2U

Eric Saubert +750/+11000 2+ (0.4U/0.1U) still left

If Etienne catches that walk in TD, I'm already off to a 20U+ start, but I'm still OK with a 9.8U profit to start (and yes, it means really today was +3.8U, since I was perfect on TNF with 4 plays and 6U profit).

Edited September 12, 2022 by Broncofan

[BayRaider]

9-5 in my point spread predictions so far. Not too shabby considering the top guys in the world who do this for a living only average about 59%. 

[UncleAdamz]

Just now, BayRaider said:

9-5 in my point spread predictions so far. Not too shabby considering the top guys in the world who do this for a living only average about 59%. 

I’m in an ATS pool for fun and was 10/10 on the week…

And then Lions/Commanders covered at the very end and all 4 late games went wrong

But tbh 8-6 for glorified guessing in week one is pretty good

[BayRaider]

Just now, UncleAdamz said:

I’m in an ATS pool for fun and was 10/10 on the week…

And then Lions/Commanders covered at the very end and all 4 late games went wrong

But tbh 8-6 for glorified guessing in week one is pretty good

Anything above 50% is good when legal gambling.

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Anything above 50% is good when legal gambling.

I have to stress this too - it matters a ton if you're putting $ on the line.  Then 55 percent is outstanding, and 60% is basically a 5th percentile record.   

It's one thing when it's for fun, or it's for a season-long record prize.  When it's every week, every game that you're putting bets on, the practice changes a lot.   

I know you know this, but more for the crowd.   If you're putting a bet behind each play you're touting, the #'s get a lot more real lol.

[Broncofan]

Adding 1 play for tonight along with the U49.5 for +100 - Ceedee Lamb 7+ recs for +160.    Decided to get a little frisky.   TAM's secondary traditionally has trouble containing top guys, and easier to go for milestones with a higher payout.  If he gets 6 tonight (which would have been -120), yes I'll be sad lol. 😄

Edited September 12, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

For MNF, I have 4 plays to go with DEN -4 and  Eric Saubert +750 / +11000 2+ TD props (already in):

Russell Wilson O1.5 pass TD's -130 1.3U, O2.5 +220 - SEA's pass D is still the leakier part of the D.   I'm totally willing to take a 2.3U loss if he only throws 1 TD, but I'm also willing to go for a 3.2U win with 3 TD's, but break even if it's only 2.   

Jerry Jeudy O57.5 rec yards - Wilson's connection with both Jeudy and Sutton are strong.  I see them taking up 20-25 percent target shares or air yard shares each.    Should be about 10 yards higher.

Courtland Sutton O57.5 rec yards - see above.  

[Broncofan]

The Sutton/Jeudy props have already risen to 60.5 and 61.5 yards, suspect it will be 2-3 yards more by gametime.  Get them in while you can!

I'm going to add 1 more play with confirmation ILB Jewell is out - Rashaad Penny O68.5 rush yards.    Carroll is going to lean ball control, and with our ILB issues, breaking at least 2-3 10+ runs is a given IMO.   This number is again 10 yards too low.    Unlike other weeks later this year, there is no Kenneth Walker as he's missing 3-4 weeks minimum.   Penny's only risk to going below this number is getting hurt, which is there.  But that's baked into the lower # IMO.   

With Week 1, the books are giving free single game parley bets, so I'm going to risk a little and go DEN 1H ML / DEN ML / Sutton & Jeudy rec yd props / Penny rush props for +1400 0.4U.  Again, it's a free bet, so I can freeroll this play, hoping to go 5-0 (DEN -4,  Wilson O1.5 & O2.5 pass TD's, Jeudy & Sutton mid 60's and Penny into 70's, and a Saubert TD would be icing on the cake).  BOL for a strong Week 1 finish!

[braylon]

So I have a parlay that will cash with a DEN -6.5 cover tonight.. Am I crazy if I don't hedge it? I'm feeling supremely confident in this being at least a touchdown game. Any thoughts? @Broncofan

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, braylon said:

So I have a parlay that will cash with a DEN -6.5 cover tonight.. Am I crazy if I don't hedge it? I'm feeling supremely confident in this being at least a touchdown game. Any thoughts? @Broncofan

A hedge is never a bad idea if the money is something you would feel awful about.  I'd bet DEN -6.5 if you forced me to choose (I'm far more comfortable at -4 lol).   But that's not the same Q as yours.

I totally get that in the long run, hedging is a bad idea - but I hedge whenever I have a big play (like +5000) coming in, I actually tailor the few parleys I play to have a hedge angle.   

It's up to you, but a really tricky (but not guaranteed option) is to try and middle it - say Denver goes up 7-10 pts before halftime.   They'll probably be -9.5.  That might be the time to take SEA +9.5.   Then you might win both bets.  Or you can just hedge it straight up and sleep like a baby.

Make no mistake, if you hedge every time, it's been shown to be less profitable.  But either if you literally can't afford to lose the parley (in which case I'd seriously question why you parley'd to begin with but I digress), or it's for major money....I get it.  I do it myself.   Literally the first rule though - it's your money.  Do what feels comfortable and what you can live with. 

Edited September 12, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

The Saubert TD prop is now +1100 - unless he's inactive, just too good to pass up.   Again, this is probably no better than a 20 percent play, but it's being priced at 9 percent (and before was priced at 13-14 percent).