Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, N4L said:

This fits one of @Broncofans rules about the Titans. He only bets on them when they are underdogs. 

I will have more thoughts on this game later in the week, but for now, the thing that really worries me, even with 10 points to play with, is that Buffalo tends to win games by double digits. 

Last season, they went 11-6. Only one of those wins was by 10 points or less. They are the type of team that gets a lead and keeps their foot on the gas. 

Glad you had a great first week! 

If it was TEN at home, I'd consider it.   The TEN record as a home dog is amazing.   On the road, not so much.

[braylon]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

A hedge is never a bad idea if the money is something you would feel awful about.  I'd bet DEN -6.5 if you forced me to choose (I'm far more comfortable at -4 lol).   But that's the same Q as yours.

I totally get that in the long run, hedging is a bad idea - but I hedge whenever I have a big play (like +5000) coming in, I actually tailor the few parleys I play to have a hedge angle.   

It's up to you, but a really tricky (but not guaranteed option) is to try and middle it - say Denver goes up 7-10 pts before halftime.   They'll probably be -9.5.  That might be the time to take SEA +9.5.   Then you might win both bets.  Or you can just hedge it straight up and sleep like a baby.

Make no mistake, if you hedge every time, it's been shown to be less profitable.  But either if you literally can't afford to lose the parley (in which case I'd seriously question why you parley'd to begin with but I digress), or it's for major money....I get it.  I do it myself.   Literally the first rule though - it's your money.  Do what feels comfortable and what you can live with. 

Appreciate your thoughts. For sure am aware it's my money and need to do what's best for me. Just wanted to gauge your confidence in the Broncos tonight one last time lol. I am truly confident, but it seems almost no one else is.. Just wanted someone/something to confirm my side just to make me not feel like a dummy lol. 

[Dash]

27 minutes ago, N4L said:

I am teasing the under with denver tonight. Denver winning with the game going under 50 feels like a good bet to me. Seattle probably tries to keep the pace down tonight to control the ball. 

I also have played the over 39.5 rushing yards for Melvin Gordon. Seems like that backfield is a more of a split than Vegas assumes and the discrepancy between javonte's prop and melvin's is large enough that it screams value to me. 

I have also parlayed Gordon over rushing yards, Javonte over 69.5 rushing yards, and the Denver ML. It is a correlated parlay. If Denver wins, its likely they have a solid night on the ground. 

I am interested to see how Seattle's LBs look without Wagner. Very possible there is a big hole in the middle of that field for the denver RBs to break big gains. 

 

Would actually take the under on those rushing yards for the Denver backs. Seattle's run D was pretty good last year. The split is not ideal either.

[braylon]

I honestly expect an onslaught and that's how I placed bets and how I made DFS lineups. I took J. Williams to outrush Penney @+165 on DK. I also took J. Williams TD/Broncos Moneyline @+170. Both of those feel like good value in a game that I expect the Broncos to dominate from top to bottom.

I took Jeudy and Sutton props, would've been on them regardless of @Broncofan, but his confidence certainly didn't hurt my thoughts on them. I'm huge on both this year, especially Sutton. I even placed a very small wager on Sutton to have 125+ receiving yards and 1 TD.

I'm a Broncos fan tonight. Had a soft spot for them since this Clinton Portis days, but it's more than just a soft spot tonight lol. Go Broncos!!

[SmittyBacall]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

There were 3 bad calls that weren't close - Ceedee Lamb, Hollywood Brown and Dameon Pierce rush props.  Always best to learn from them.

I don’t think Ceedee and Hollywood were bad calls at all. Ceedee was the primary target versus a defense that funnels away from the run, in a game script that predictably had them trailing - dude got like 11 targets and had a few chunk plays taken back.  Nothing wrong there, Dallas’ O is just worse than what anyone anticipated. Hollywood, again, was at least supposed to be the primary option, but (a consistently pressured) Kyler was looking for Greg Dortch all game and showed little interest in throwing to the boundary. 

I’m making a those bets every time. Sometimes they just miss, that’s betting. 

Pierce I did not tail.

[Broncofan]

9 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

I don’t think Ceedee and Hollywood were bad calls at all. Ceedee was the primary target versus a defense that funnels away from the run, in a game script that predictably had them trailing - dude got like 11 targets and had a few chunk plays taken back.  Nothing wrong there, Dallas’ O is just worse than what anyone anticipated. Hollywood, again, was at least supposed to be the primary option, but (a consistently pressured) Kyler was looking for Greg Dortch all game and showed little interest in throwing to the boundary. 

I’m making a those bets every time. Sometimes they just miss, that’s betting. 

Pierce I did not tail.

Yeah the reasoning was sound with Ceedee and Hollywood.  But the info learned was more than just "bad week", that's more my point.     I made a ton off both guys last year, and won't shy away from them later on - just it's a new year and a very different set of circumstances.  But that cuts both ways - going to be some guys I'm going to be very much on next week that popped volume/opp wise (and not just chunk play creating all the stats).

Pierce...man.   Today Lovie Smith is like "we were planning on getting him more touches, we need to get him more involved next week"......lol dammit. 

Edited September 12, 2022 by Broncofan

[Norm]

SEA on the ML though 

[BayRaider]

Burning cash:

4 Prop Parlay

Denver ML

Jeudy over 60.5 receiving yards

Sutton at least 1 TD

Wilson 22+ pass completions

Bet 210 to win 550 (760 total)

I'm hoping my Jefferson OPOY bet breaks me even on everything at the end of the year. I've got $170 on that with a $1550 payout. He's off to a great start and clearly in the OPOY lead so far. 

[Norm]

3 hours ago, Norm said:

SEA on the ML though 

RIDE WITH NORM 

[braylon]

Sheesh lol. It felt like I was watching the old Browns trying to root for Denver in that game. They did everything wrong and still almost won. Not even close to the cover I needed either way.. But thankful for some props hitting. That was just an outrageously poorly coached game in so many ways. I didn't know it heading in, but not surprised to find out that there is a first time head coach, first time OC and first time DC in charge of the squad. All three struggled, clock management was horrible, they were on the verge of a delay of game on every snap lol. Man am I thankful I was hoping for a small parlay to turn into a big amount and not just an even bet on that. Yikes.

[Broncofan]

On 9/11/2022 at 8:06 PM, Broncofan said:

ATS/ML/RACE

2-1 ATS, 1-1 RACE (JAX win RACE to 20, but lose the others, MIN win ML & RACE to 20)

It came down to 1 play & 1 missed 35 yard FG - Travis Etienne drops a walk in TD in the 2Q that gets JAX 7 more points, then the next drive (after a WAS punt), the missed FG.     Even if WAS somehow overcame those extra 7-10 pts - all 3 RACES to 20/25/30 win, instead of a ML L and RACE to 25/30 as L's.   Oh well.   Still a good day with ATS/ML

DAL/TB U49.5 +100 & DEN -4 (now -6.5) still left.

+1.4U

 

PLAYER PROPS

9-5

The Etienne drop really stings because it also cost me a +125 O1.5 TD prop on Trevor Lawrence.   Ah well, that's the life of gambling.    And frankly, being able to void the Lance TD / Aiyuk catch / Kmet catch & yard prop all saved me with the monsoon conditions.   So I can't be too unhappy, especially since I hit Kirk for 2U & the 2 QB plus money hits (Etienne literally cost me 2.5U here and 7.5U in ML/RACE - ah well).

+7.2U

No props pending so far, adding tonight

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

1-4 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets, lose with Kmet/Phillips/Doubs/Felton).

Because I win with 0.8U at +400 combined, this still gets me slightly ahead.   Felton was a bad play, never really saw the field, but Kmet / Phillips / Doubs were a big part of the O (or in Kmet's case, he is).   Phillips & Doubs both got RZ looks, and Doubs got tackled at the 9 and 2 with only 1 guy to beat.  Way it goes. 

+1.2U

Eric Saubert +750/+11000 2+ (0.4U/0.1U) still left

If Etienne catches that walk in TD, I'm already off to a 20U+ start, but I'm still OK with a 9.8U profit to start (and yes, it means really today was +3.8U, since I was perfect on TNF with 4 plays and 6U profit).

 

On 9/11/2022 at 8:27 PM, Broncofan said:

For MNF, I have 4 plays to go with DEN -4 and  Eric Saubert +750 / +11000 2+ TD props (already in):

Russell Wilson O1.5 pass TD's -130 1.3U, O2.5 +220 - SEA's pass D is still the leakier part of the D.   I'm totally willing to take a 2.3U loss if he only throws 1 TD, but I'm also willing to go for a 3.2U win with 3 TD's, but break even if it's only 2.   

Jerry Jeudy O57.5 rec yards - Wilson's connection with both Jeudy and Sutton are strong.  I see them taking up 20-25 percent target shares or air yard shares each.    Should be about 10 yards higher.

Courtland Sutton O57.5 rec yards - see above.  

 

16 hours ago, Broncofan said:

The Sutton/Jeudy props have already risen to 60.5 and 61.5 yards, suspect it will be 2-3 yards more by gametime.  Get them in while you can!

I'm going to add 1 more play with confirmation ILB Jewell is out - Rashaad Penny O68.5 rush yards.    Carroll is going to lean ball control, and with our ILB issues, breaking at least 2-3 10+ runs is a given IMO.   This number is again 10 yards too low.    Unlike other weeks later this year, there is no Kenneth Walker as he's missing 3-4 weeks minimum.   Penny's only risk to going below this number is getting hurt, which is there.  But that's baked into the lower # IMO.   

With Week 1, the books are giving free single game parley bets, so I'm going to risk a little and go DEN 1H ML / DEN ML / Sutton & Jeudy rec yd props / Penny rush props for +1400 0.4U.  Again, it's a free bet, so I can freeroll this play, hoping to go 5-0 (DEN -4,  Wilson O1.5 & O2.5 pass TD's, Jeudy & Sutton mid 60's and Penny into 70's, and a Saubert TD would be icing on the cake).  BOL for a strong Week 1 finish!

 

7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

BTW this is the time to look for special bet boosts - B365 has a Javonte Williams TD +400 2U bet boost (instead of +100) for Javonte Williams (max bet is 2U), so even though the SEA rush D is better than their pass D, and MG3 is taking 45 percent of the work, well...

 

 

Well tonight sucked hard in so many ways:

-DEN fumbling 2x at the 1 yard line, 13 penalties, and the absolute worst game management plan seen by the modern era with 4 mins left (not to mention the most unprepared presnap readiness by the O).    DEN -4 goes up in flames.

-Russ O1.5/O2.5 loses 2.3U but not for a ton of opps. 

-Penny O68.5 loses mainly because Penny left at least 15-20 yds on the field, and a massive hold penalty that took away 20+ yards (but was legit)'

-Most painful of all, Javonte Williams 2U +400 TD and Saubert's +1100 TD (0.5U) props were BARELY missed - Williams at the GL, and Saubert got an EZ target that was just off.   Soooo close as these likely cash the ML bet, Wilson O1.5 1.3U and of course those props.

Jeudy/Sutton props are totally fine - but it's a -3.8U day for me tonight.  Yesterday's DAL game was a wash with U49.5 +100 hitting and Lamb 7+ catches +160 whiffing.  

Thankfully it's still a +6.0U week 1 - ironically it's exactly what I scored after TNF.  I could have literally skipped Week 1 after TNF and had the same result.

Still, what hurts the most is the L - real-life matters more than 3.8U in the red.   But there's next week, and most importantly, the DEN talent is real (but OMG that goes down as the WORST coaching debut by a rookie HC ever, even worse than Freddie Kitchens and his 12 penalty-fest with CLE).

---------------

 

 

WEEK 1 FINAL

ATS/ML/RACE

3-2 ATS, 1-1 RACE (JAX win RACE to 20, but lose the others, MIN win ML & RACE to 20)

In JAX, it came down to 1 play & 1 missed 35 yard FG - Travis Etienne drops a walk in TD in the 2Q that gets JAX 7 more points, then the next drive (after a WAS punt), the missed FG.     Even if WAS somehow overcame those extra 7-10 pts - all 3 RACES to 20/25/30 win, instead of a ML L and RACE to 25/30 as L's.   Oh well.  

I can't even begin to talk about DEN's L again...lol.  ANOTHER ripple effect with the 2 fumbles at the 1 (and Saubert / Javonte both having TD opps miss by THAT much)

+1.8U

 

PLAYER PROPS

11-7

The Etienne drop really stings because it also cost me a +125 O1.5 TD prop on Trevor Lawrence.   Ah well, that's the life of gambling.    And frankly, being able to void the Lance TD / Aiyuk catch / Kmet catch & yard prop all saved me with the monsoon conditions.   So I can't be too unhappy, especially since I hit Kirk for 2U & the 2 QB plus money hits (Etienne literally cost me 2.5U here and 7.5U in ML/RACE - ah well).

Penny leaving 10-20 yards on the field, hold and of course, Wilson literally missing 2nd and 3rd TD's by inches...OMG so painful.   Still, the yardage evals and TD props were profitable, and more targets to ID next week.

+5.2U

No props pending so far, adding tonight

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

1-6 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets, lose with Kmet/Phillips/Doubs/Felton).

Because I win with 0.8U at +400 combined, this still gets me slightly ahead.   Felton was a bad play, never really saw the field, but Kmet / Phillips / Doubs were a big part of the O (or in Kmet's case, he is).   Phillips & Doubs both got RZ looks, and Doubs got tackled at the 9 and 2 with only 1 guy to beat.  Saubert AND Javonte Williams on MNF - soooo close.  Way it goes. 

-1.0U

 

If Etienne catches that walk in TD, or Javonte/Saubert scores I'm already off to a 30U+ start, but I'm still OK with a 6.0U profit to start (and yes, it means really today was +3.8U, since I was perfect on TNF with 4 plays and 6U profit).

Edited September 13, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

3 early TNF plays:

LA-KC U54.5 - I know, I know, it's Mahomes vs. Herbert.   But the reality is that TNF, with short weeks, the game plans are simplified, and these are divisional foes who know each other very well.    JC Jackson was a GTD, but it's a short week.  If he was playing, I'd probably side with LAC +3.5 pretty easily, and go for a RACE to 20/25.  However, I think it's just easier to bank on both D's being a lot better (LAC's D is miles ahead).  I think it's far more likely we see a 24-20 game than a 31-27 game.   

 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire O45.5 rush yards - the line looks deceiving, 42 yards rushing last week.  What wasn't seen is that it was after 2.5 quarters of play, and KC was up by 4 scores.  That's when Isiah Pacheco took over.   Until then, it was all CEH pretty much.  Given that, the line should be at least 55+ yards, as that's still where LAC is vulnerable.

Josh Palmer TD +300, 2+ +4000 (0.4u/0.1u) - B365 still has Keenan Allen listed at +150 - which means this line is going down hard when Allen is ruled out.   No yardage props out, I'll def be on them.  I get that he didn't see the targets when Allen went out, but that's somewhat flukish.  Palmer will take over Allen's role & share a lot more than the other guys.   

[Broncofan]

On 9/13/2022 at 1:40 PM, Broncofan said:

3 early TNF plays:

LA-KC U54.5 - I know, I know, it's Mahomes vs. Herbert.   But the reality is that TNF, with short weeks, the game plans are simplified, and these are divisional foes who know each other very well.    JC Jackson was a GTD, but it's a short week.  If he was playing, I'd probably side with LAC +3.5 pretty easily, and go for a RACE to 20/25.  However, I think it's just easier to bank on both D's being a lot better (LAC's D is miles ahead).  I think it's far more likely we see a 24-20 game than a 31-27 game.   

 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire O45.5 rush yards - the line looks deceiving, 42 yards rushing last week.  What wasn't seen is that it was after 2.5 quarters of play, and KC was up by 4 scores.  That's when Isiah Pacheco took over.   Until then, it was all CEH pretty much.  Given that, the line should be at least 55+ yards, as that's still where LAC is vulnerable.

Josh Palmer TD +300, 2+ +4000 (0.4u/0.1u) - B365 still has Keenan Allen listed at +150 - which means this line is going down hard when Allen is ruled out.   No yardage props out, I'll def be on them.  I get that he didn't see the targets when Allen went out, but that's somewhat flukish.  Palmer will take over Allen's role & share a lot more than the other guys.   

The lines are already moving to reward the early bird bettors - Palmer TD prop went down to +210/+2000 with the Allen news, and CEH rush prop is already O46.5 yds, and the O/U is now 54.0.  I went & doubled that stake to 0.8U/0.2U before the line change, so I'll stick with that.

The yardage / rec props are out, and 3 I'm adding right now:
 

Josh Palmer O4.5 catches +120, O46.5 rec yards - now I know DeAndre Carter is the WW darling after his 2-TD day.  But here's the thing - Carter did that on about 25 snaps (admittedly he took over Allen's role).   Palmer was the Z WR in Week 1 with Allen in the slot and Williams in the X, and when Allen got hurt - instead of moving Palmer into the Allen role, the staff chose to keep Palmer in his Z role, and then move Carter into the slot - resulting in 3 targets.  I do NOT expect that to happen with KC's game and Allen now out.    When Allen missed time last year - Palmer was the #2 target with Williams #1, and he went 7 targets, 5 catches, 60+ yards, and a TD - in a game they won going away, and let off the gas.    Obv it's a small sample size, but I always love to go with the talent.   Why I'm invested in the catches at + money, yardage and that nice +300 TD prop.

Mike Williams O65.5 rec yards - with Allen out, but with a subpar week 1, the line's been suppressed.   I always like Williams in these kind of situations, and historically, he's been good for 70+ vs. KC, with the exception of 1 awful game, and last December - where he hurt his shoulder on the 1st drive.    It's not as confident a play as Palmer, but with Allen out, I'm OK with taking the top 2 players with Herbert.   Frankly, the combined prop is pretty low with Allen out, given Herbert's 282.5 pass yards set as the OU.   If you think the Herbert line is right, those are supremely low shares.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

Went 4-1 last week.

Hits: Michael Carter O12.5 receiving, Christian Kirk O55.5 receiving, Vikings (+1.5), Ravens (-6.5)

Misses: Cardinals (+6.5)

I'll keep track of my picks this year on here as well. 

 

 

[incognito_man]

If there is an attractive futures bet tied to the Saints making the Super Bowl I'd take it.