Broncofan Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 (edited) On 9/13/2022 at 1:40 PM, Broncofan said: 3 early TNF plays: LA-KC U54.5 - I know, I know, it's Mahomes vs. Herbert. But the reality is that TNF, with short weeks, the game plans are simplified, and these are divisional foes who know each other very well. JC Jackson was a GTD, but it's a short week. If he was playing, I'd probably side with LAC +3.5 pretty easily, and go for a RACE to 20/25. However, I think it's just easier to bank on both D's being a lot better (LAC's D is miles ahead). I think it's far more likely we see a 24-20 game than a 31-27 game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire O45.5 rush yards - the line looks deceiving, 42 yards rushing last week. What wasn't seen is that it was after 2.5 quarters of play, and KC was up by 4 scores. That's when Isiah Pacheco took over. Until then, it was all CEH pretty much. Given that, the line should be at least 55+ yards, as that's still where LAC is vulnerable. Josh Palmer TD +300, 2+ +4000 (0.4u/0.1u) - B365 still has Keenan Allen listed at +150 - which means this line is going down hard when Allen is ruled out. No yardage props out, I'll def be on them. I get that he didn't see the targets when Allen went out, but that's somewhat flukish. Palmer will take over Allen's role & share a lot more than the other guys. On 9/14/2022 at 7:38 PM, Broncofan said: The lines are already moving to reward the early bird bettors - Palmer TD prop went down to +210/+2000 with the Allen news, and CEH rush prop is already O46.5 yds, and the O/U is now 54.0. I went & doubled that stake to 0.8U/0.2U before the line change, so I'll stick with that. The yardage / rec props are out, and 3 I'm adding right now: Josh Palmer O4.5 catches +120, O46.5 rec yards - now I know DeAndre Carter is the WW darling after his 2-TD day. But here's the thing - Carter did that on about 25 snaps (admittedly he took over Allen's role). Palmer was the Z WR in Week 1 with Allen in the slot and Williams in the X, and when Allen got hurt - instead of moving Palmer into the Allen role, the staff chose to keep Palmer in his Z role, and then move Carter into the slot - resulting in 3 targets. I do NOT expect that to happen with KC's game and Allen now out. When Allen missed time last year - Palmer was the #2 target with Williams #1, and he went 7 targets, 5 catches, 60+ yards, and a TD - in a game they won going away, and let off the gas. Obv it's a small sample size, but I always love to go with the talent. Why I'm invested in the catches at + money, yardage and that nice +300 TD prop. Mike Williams O65.5 rec yards - with Allen out, but with a subpar week 1, the line's been suppressed. I always like Williams in these kind of situations, and historically, he's been good for 70+ vs. KC, with the exception of 1 awful game, and last December - where he hurt his shoulder on the 1st drive. It's not as confident a play as Palmer, but with Allen out, I'm OK with taking the top 2 players with Herbert. Frankly, the combined prop is pretty low with Allen out, given Herbert's 282.5 pass yards set as the OU. If you think the Herbert line is right, those are supremely low shares. 5 hours ago, Broncofan said: Adding Patrick Mahomes O16.5 rush yards, like this call, full credit to @NYRaider With news that JC Jackson is indeed playing, I'm going to go with the dog - LAC ML +175, and RACE to 20/25 at +180 / +300 for 0.5U each. I still think the under is more likely, so I'm not chasing 30 pts and thus likely to root against my own bets. Man, soooo close to having a monster night. Josh Palmer gets 9 targets, and a 1H TD but for the CB tackling him on a DPI with a walk in TD (and saved them 4 pts, great play) and Herbert uncharacteristically being wild on his throws (probably timing issues with those 2). And that pick 6 took away the RACE to 20, and very likely a ML win and a great chance for RACE to 25. Still, the late Palmer TD really saved the day - and CEH / Mike Williams and the U54.5 were big W's. Mahomes O16.5 was the only L that wasn't at all close. Final tally: ATS/ML - 1-0 ATS (under), 0-1 Dog RACE/ML - -1.0U with the whiff on LAC (damn you pick-6 lol) Player Props - 2-1 (CEH / M-Williams win, but Palmer loses x2) - DRAW TD Props - 1-0, +2.4U Net - +1.4U (lol...that pick-6 was again at the very least a 4.0U swing for RACE to 20 & ML, and very possibly another 2U with RACE to 25....dammit) WEEK 2 TNF INCLUDED WEEK 1 FINAL ATS/ML/RACE 4-2 ATS, 1-2 ML/RACE (Etienne & KC EZ pick-6 could be amazing instead of OK) +0.8U PLAYER PROPS 13-8 +5.2U LONGSHOT TD PROPS 2-6 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF). +1.4U TOTAL - +7.4U (45U bet so far - Week 1 - +6.0U, Week 2 TNF - +1.4U) Edited September 16, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 3 hours ago, NYRaider said: Some other early lines that I like: Zach Ertz O39.5 receiving - The Raiders have had trouble covering TE's dating back to last season and it seemed to carry over last week against the Chargers. Our best safety is likely going to miss the game so I think this is a smash spot for Ertz. Josh Jacobs U2.5 receptions - Jacobs had 1 reception last week but didn't play a single third down. Bolden seems to be locked into the passing down role and it appears that McDaniels is going to use Jacobs like he used Damien Harris last season. Courtland Sutton O54.5 receiving - Matt Ryan/Michael Pittman absolutely destroyed the Texans secondary last week. Sutton was relatively quiet to start last week but came on strong in the second half, finishing with 72 yards. Seems like a smash spot. My only warning on Ertz is that he's still dealing with a calf issue. So that's the only reason to be wary. Sutton & Jeudy should feast Sunday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: @Broncofan @N4L First drive exactly how we drew it up. Except for the pick-6 in the 4Q, it was going great until then...oh well. On the flip side, CEH's big run and Palmer's TD don't necessarily happen if LAC goes up 24-17 instead of KC, so gotta keep that in mind. Edited September 16, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 (edited) Early bets to jump on IMO: ATS/ML & RACE (1U Wins for ATS/ML, 0.5U for RACE unless otherwise stated) EARLY PIT ML +110 vs. NE - I know TJ Watt is gone, big blow. But this is a bad matchup for NE. Matt Patricia is a disaster with the OL and as OC. PIT's D and HFA really make a difference. I don't have much confidence in a high scoring game, so no RACE's, just the straight ML shot. EDIT ADDED SUNDAY AM - NYG MG +100 vs. CAR - the line moved late here, so I'm willing to take them at a slight dog and basically pick' em returns. Run game (love CMC, but Saquon is back) / trench & coaching edges all go the NYG. NO ML +130 ML vs. TAM, RACE to 20/25 +160 / +240 - once again, bookmakers backing TB12 and TAM - when NO is their kryptonite. I'm totally good with a ML play and RACE to 20/25. JAX +3.5 vs. IND - the JAX trenches are better this year, their skill guys are better this year, and we know Pittman is out, and very possibly Shaq Leonard (plus Kenny Moore is Q). That's a huge disadvantage to IND, I'm not quite sold on ML/RACE unless I know Shaq Leonard isn't playing. But +3.5 is too good to pass up as a home dog. LATE LV -5.5 vs. ARI - ARI without Hopkins and JJ Watt still gimpy, and Chandler Jones gone, well, they're a bad team. Going to travel to Vegas, and a big bounceback game from Carr & co. On the flip side, the Raiders pass rush likely to find a lot more success vs ARI's OL, and the secondary doesn't have to worry nearly as much on the WR/TE corps here. I think the final score could be 10+ for the Raiders in a TO-neutral game. CIN -7 @ DAL 2.2U - this is self-explanatory. Terrible WR/OL, no Dak, and a D that is very much exposed when they can't generate negative plays or TO's. A big get-right game for CIN. SNF GB -10.0 vs. CHI - any Given Sunday. Last week proved that in spades. But the talent gap here is massive, and there's no monsoon to level the playing field. I don't expect this to be competitive TBH. TOTAL - 7U at stake PLAYER PROPS None out so far besides TD's, I'm going to be looking hard at following props: EARLY EDIT SUNDAY AM REMOVED - Jameis Winston O1.5 pass TD's +110 - the path to beating TAM's D is in the air, I think this is a -150 prop. EDIT: With injury news, while he'll play, this removes the edge he had. BET VOIDED. Juwan Johnson O19.5 rec yds 2U - with Kamara likely out or limited, the Saints won't turn to more RB pass catching work with other guys, but likely use Johnson more. He's now their pass catching TE, and his blocking has improved to the point where he's out-snapping Adam Trautman 2-1. This number again should be in the low 30's, so this is an easy 2U play. Saquon Barkley O74.5 rush yds 2U - CAR's D gave up 200+ yds to CLE. NYG isn't quite at the same OL level, but they have made massive gains. Anything less than 80 yds and it's 2U time, but even up to 85 yds, I'm good with. Zay Jones O43.5 rec yds 2U - JAX's 2nd leading target hog. Definitely building a connection with T-Lawrence. And if Kenny Moore, IND's all-world slot CB plays, well that makes his matchup with the boundary CB's (Facyson more than Gilmore, duh) much tastier this week. LATE Trey Lance O1.5 pass TD's +160 - SEA's pass D is where you beat them. Monsoon game aside, I think the prop should be a pick 'em, so gotta take the shot with +160. Trey Lance O189.5 pass yards 2U - my eyes did a double take when I saw this number. In the unplayable monsoon last week - he threw for 160+ yards, with only 13 completions. SEA just gave 340+ yards to Russell Wilson when they were being tipped as to what they were throwing on many plays. TBH, this might be a 4U play. Don't get me wrong, I don't think he's throwing for 300+, but my number I had in mind was 230 - he threw for 250+ against HOU's porous pass D last year without Kittle, this is much the same idea. Jerry Jeudy O57.5 rec yds 2U - HOU's pass coverage got torched by IND's WR's - they couldn't hang on to the ball. I don't expect problems with either guy; they'll be hungry to post big #'s in the DEN debut for Russell Wilson. Courtland Sutton O54.5 rec yards - see Jeudy. Brandon Aiyuk O3.5 recs +150 / O49.5 yds +150 - SEA's pass coverage is so vulnerable - Aiyuk likely stands to benefit the most. At that plus money, I'm all over O3.5. I'm also going to go over the 40.5 and instead take O49.5 at +150 - it's a little riskier, but I really see chunk play potential as well as 4+ catches (much like Jeudy & Sutton did), so the juice is worth the squeeze here. Davante Adams O7.5 recs - We know he's going to be a target hog, and ARI's pass D is so vulnerable. SNF/MNF Kyler Phillips rec / rec yd props (PENDING) - the leading target guy, and excellent slot skills. I'm convinced. B365 is offering another 0.5U free bet, so I'll also play a 6-leg Lance O189.5 pass yd/Barkley O74.5 rush yd/D-Adams O7.5 rec/J-Johnson O19.5 rec yds/Z-Jones O43.5 rec yds/Jeudy O57.5 rec yds for +4800. TOTAL - 16U at stake so far (Philips receiving props still not released yet) LONGSHOT TD PROPS (0.4U/0.1U 2+ unless otherwise stated) EARLY Zay Jones +350 / +4000 2+ (1.8U/0.2U) - did I mention 2nd target in JAX? Well, in the RZ, he's the top target guy along with Kirk. Have to take a shot at these #'s. Ashton Dulin +450 / +7000 2+ (0.9U/0.1U) - Pittman hurting, Pierce with a concussion - in steps Dulin. Already had EZ looks, so hopefully he gets another shot (don't drop this one, kid). Juwan Johnson +550 / +8000 (0.8U/0.2U) - he's now the de factor move TE when they're in the RZ - gotta take a stab as long as it's anything +500 or higher. Because of all the TAM uncertainty, the props aren't out yet. LATE SNF MNF Kyle Phillips +1100 / +12500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - starting slot guy, highest target share - admittedly small, but he's out there when they are trying to score. Given the target share, this number is WAY to high. Going 0.8U/0.2U accordingly. TOTAL - 5U at stake so far ________________________________________________________________________________________________ WEEK 2 TNF INCLUDED WEEK 1 FINAL ATS/ML/RACE 4-2 ATS, 1-2 ML/RACE (Etienne & KC EZ pick-6 could be amazing instead of OK) +0.8U PLAYER PROPS 13-8 +5.2U LONGSHOT TD PROPS 2-6 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF). +1.4U TOTAL - +7.4U (45U bet so far - Week 1 - +6.0U, Week 2 TNF - +1.4U) Edited September 18, 2022 by Broncofan Sunday - remove Winston, added NYG ML 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Broncofan said: NO ML +130 ML vs. TAM, RACE to 20/25 +160 / +240 - once again, bookmakers backing TB12 and TAM - when NO is their kryptonite. I'm totally good with a ML play and RACE to 20/25. LATE LV -5.5 vs. ARI - ARI without Hopkins and JJ Watt still gimpy, and Chandler Jones gone, well, they're a bad team. Going to travel to Vegas, and a big bounceback game from Carr & co. On the flip side, the Raiders pass rush likely to find a lot more success vs ARI's OL, and the secondary doesn't have to worry nearly as much on the WR/TE corps here. I think the final score could be 10+ for the Raiders in a TO-neutral game. You beat me to the punch with both of these. The cardinals are a huge fade for me, they are inept on so many different levels. The raiders pass rush is going to give them some major problems and Kyler just looks lost out there. I think the NFL has figured out Kyler and Kliff. Arizona's defense is bad, their pass rush is non-existent. Simmons looks like a major bust who cant cover anyone. Its very bad, and I dont think they have the locker room to right the ship. Its going to get very ugly for them. Raiders seem competent and basically lost to LAC because Herbert went god mode. Kyler wont hurt them like that. I already locked in the -5 and will probably use the raiders as a teaser leg I didnt get to watch SNF last week (will watch it tomorrow), so I dont have a good read on TB just yet, but actually was eyeballing the under 45 in that game. I just watched ATL NO back and I came away pretty encouraged with ATL's defense, but also very concerned about NO's OL. They were not getting much push in the run game and Winston was under a lot of pressure. Tampa can get after the QB. Evans, Julio, Godwin are all injured and havent practiced this week. Brady isnt the same without Gronk, the numbers show that. Saints defense seems like it is most susceptible on the ground, so I think that is where TB attacks them, which chews clock obviously. This just feels like a slow, field position type divisional dog fight, with FGs and field position battles. Both defenses are excellent. I do like NO to win the game outright but not as much as the under. Will probably play both with the under being 2x the cumulative bet on NO+2.5/3/ML. Another one I like is the over 48 in DET and WSH. Both defenses are bad, particularly in the secondary. This WSH O seems legit. Curtis Samuel is dynamic, Dotson is a stud, Terry is Terry, and Logan Thomas is a solid TE as well. Wentz being turnover prone helps the over imo. DET has no fear in airing it out and trying to put up points, especially when they fall behind. Its a few points higher than I would have liked, would love to have gotten it in the 46 range, but I still think both offenses have a lot of talent while neither defense is very good. Will need to check some pace of play stats and other things like that before I bet it, but I really like this one. I am also going to take a peek at ATL +10.5. Its not typically my style to take such large road dogs against a team coming off a long week, but I was really impressed with their defense, particularly their front. The Rams OL was horrendous against BUF. That DL is obviously fantastic so it can be hard to make a judgement off of one game, but they were so thoroughly beaten its hard for me to automatically assume they cover a large number against a team that I believe to be under rated. I really liked what I saw out of Mariota, he was accurate, poised, and moving extremely well. Was not afraid of contact, was not skiddish at all. Threw the ball down field, with accuracy, made plays with his legs. Pitts should have a big game over the middle. Drake London looked fantastic. Cpat hit the hole like his life depended on it. Really great wiggle from him. Great speed/power combo. I was thoroughly impressed by him, seems like he took a step forward this offseason. Seems like a good teaser leg as well. I do like the idea of fading NE. That offense is pathetic and I think Bill has lost his touch. I think if this game was played in a month from now that the steelers would be 5-6 point favorites, at least. I think after they lose this week, Vegas will move them down a lot. Seems like a sharp bet to me. I will tail you with this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 (edited) On 9/16/2022 at 1:47 AM, Broncofan said: Early bets to jump on IMO: ATS/ML & RACE (1U Wins for ATS/ML, 0.5U for RACE unless otherwise stated) EARLY PIT ML +110 vs. NE - I know TJ Watt is gone, big blow. But this is a bad matchup for NE. Matt Patricia is a disaster with the OL and as OC. PIT's D and HFA really make a difference. I don't have much confidence in a high scoring game, so no RACE's, just the straight ML shot. NO ML +130 ML vs. TAM, RACE to 20/25 +160 / +240 - once again, bookmakers backing TB12 and TAM - when NO is their kryptonite. I'm totally good with a ML play and RACE to 20/25. LATE LV -5.5 vs. ARI - ARI without Hopkins and JJ Watt still gimpy, and Chandler Jones gone, well, they're a bad team. Going to travel to Vegas, and a big bounceback game from Carr & co. On the flip side, the Raiders pass rush likely to find a lot more success vs ARI's OL, and the secondary doesn't have to worry nearly as much on the WR/TE corps here. I think the final score could be 10+ for the Raiders in a TO-neutral game. CIN -7 @ DAL 2.2U - this is self-explanatory. Terrible WR/OL, no Dak, and a D that is very much exposed when they can't generate negative plays or TO's. A big get-right game for CIN. SNF GB -10.0 vs. CHI - any Given Sunday. Last week proved that in spades. But the talent gap here is massive, and there's no monsoon to level the playing field. I don't expect this to be competitive TBH. PLAYER PROPS None out so far besides TD's, I'm going to be looking hard at following props: EARLY Saquon Barkley rush/rec yd props - CAR's D gave up 200+ yds to CLE. NYG isn't quite at the same OL level, but they have made massive gains. Anything less than 80 yds and it's 2U time, but even up to 85 yds, I'm good with. Jonathan Taylor rec yd props - with the injury to Pittman, I expect Taylor to 25-30 touches and more targets too. Zay Jones rec yd props - JAX's 2nd leading target hog. Definitely building a connection with T-Lawrence. LATE Jerry Jeudy & Courtland Sutton rec yd props - HOU's pass coverage got torched by IND's WR's - they couldn't hang on to the ball. I don't expect problems with either guy; they'll be hungry to post big #'s in the DEN debut for Russell Wilson. Dameon Pierce rush yd props - OK, I'm going to bank on the coaches seeing the same game film - Rex Burkhead is not the vet answer. Brandon Aiyuk rec / rec yd props - SEA's pass coverage is so vulnerable - Aiyuk likely stands to benefit the most. If it's O3.5 at + money, I'll be on that plus the yards. Davante Adams rec yd props - Similar theme, ARI's pass D is so vulnerable. Joe Mixon rush yd props - DAL's D really wore down and let the RB's feast. Prime opp for Mixon here. SNF/MNF Kyler Phillips rec / rec yd props - the leading target guy, and excellent slot skills. I'm convinced. LONGSHOT TD PROPS (0.4U/0.1U 2+ unless otherwise stated) EARLY Zay Jones +350 / +4000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - did I mention 2nd target in JAX? Well, in the RZ, he's the top target guy along with Kirk. Have to take a shot at these #'s. Ashley Dulin +450 / +7000 2+ (0.4U/0.1U) - Pittman hurting, Pierce with a concussion - in steps Dulin. Already had EZ looks, so hopefully he gets another shot (don't drop this one, kid). Juwan Johnson ??? / ???? (0.4U/0.1U) - he's now the de factor move TE when they're in the RZ - gotta take a stab as long as it's anything +500 or higher. LATE SNF MNF Kyle Phillips +1100 / +12500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - starting slot guy, highest target share - admittedly small, but he's out there when they are trying to score. Given the target share, this number is WAY to high. Going 0.8U/0.2U accordingly. OK here we go with player props for Sunday, and I'm confident enough to go 2U win results on a few.... EARLY Jameis Winston O1.5 pass TD's +110 - the only way you score consistently against TAM's D with Vita Vea is with the pass. If I think NO's O is getting 2 TD's, I have to take this prop. As I'm on the Saints ML, I'm definitely going here. Maybe the Saints win a 16-13 game and it blows up, but I'm willing to go with what I think is more of a -150 line at +110. Saquon Barkely O75.5 rush yards 2U - the NYG OL looked super impressive in run blocking (pass pro a diff story). They now face the D that just gave up 200+ rush yards to CLE. The Browns OL is a great unit, but I put NYG in the top half and likely top 10 run-wise. This should have been at least 85+, and understanding Barkley finally has all the burst/explosion/sudden COD ability back 18 months post-ACL, I'm confident enough to risk to win 2U. Zay Jones O43.5 rec yards 2U - the Jags #2 target last week, and tied for RZ looks with Christian Kirk. Besides the volume, as he plays outside, he'll face some Gilmore, but also gets Facyson - which is a far better matchup than Kenny Moore in the slot (and why I'm not on Kirk this week). I'm also confident enough to increase my Jones TD prop to 1.6U/0.4U there, and play him in DFS. LATE Trey Lance O1.5 pass TD's +160 - this is all about the payout vs. the prob. SEA's pass D is absolutely their weak spot - and even with no Kittle I expect SF scores at least 3 TD's, so 2 pass TD's is again a 50-50 prop here, have to take the +160 shot. Davante Adams O7.5 catches - the Raiders showed they are willing to pepper him. Won't make it 2U as the number's only 1.5 below my projection, but given how bad ARI's D is, I have to have some stake here. Jerry Jeudy O57.5 rec yards 2U - the line doesn't change even though the pass D is just as leaky - and IMO, Wilson is likely only going to Jeudy's way even more. I can also support Courtland Sutton O54.5 rec yards, but Jeudy is going to be get even more looks as he continues to separate and be wide open (he was there so many times, including the ill-fated 3rd down and 16 where they took the safe dump off - leading to the incredulous play-for-FG by Hackett). With the Kamara & Kittle injuries, SF & NO props aren't out for receivers or TD's, but I am still very much interested in Brandon Aiyuk & NO receiver props. Also no MNF props out, but those are ones that I really like now, and IMO several of them will only get higher #'s to back. Edited September 17, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Tua over 1.5 passing TDs +100 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 10 hours ago, N4L said: You beat me to the punch with both of these. The cardinals are a huge fade for me, they are inept on so many different levels. The raiders pass rush is going to give them some major problems and Kyler just looks lost out there. I think the NFL has figured out Kyler and Kliff. Arizona's defense is bad, their pass rush is non-existent. Simmons looks like a major bust who cant cover anyone. Its very bad, and I dont think they have the locker room to right the ship. Its going to get very ugly for them. Raiders seem competent and basically lost to LAC because Herbert went god mode. Kyler wont hurt them like that. I already locked in the -5 and will probably use the raiders as a teaser leg I didnt get to watch SNF last week (will watch it tomorrow), so I dont have a good read on TB just yet, but actually was eyeballing the under 45 in that game. I just watched ATL NO back and I came away pretty encouraged with ATL's defense, but also very concerned about NO's OL. They were not getting much push in the run game and Winston was under a lot of pressure. Tampa can get after the QB. Evans, Julio, Godwin are all injured and havent practiced this week. Brady isnt the same without Gronk, the numbers show that. Saints defense seems like it is most susceptible on the ground, so I think that is where TB attacks them, which chews clock obviously. This just feels like a slow, field position type divisional dog fight, with FGs and field position battles. Both defenses are excellent. I do like NO to win the game outright but not as much as the under. Will probably play both with the under being 2x the cumulative bet on NO+2.5/3/ML. Another one I like is the over 48 in DET and WSH. Both defenses are bad, particularly in the secondary. This WSH O seems legit. Curtis Samuel is dynamic, Dotson is a stud, Terry is Terry, and Logan Thomas is a solid TE as well. Wentz being turnover prone helps the over imo. DET has no fear in airing it out and trying to put up points, especially when they fall behind. Its a few points higher than I would have liked, would love to have gotten it in the 46 range, but I still think both offenses have a lot of talent while neither defense is very good. Will need to check some pace of play stats and other things like that before I bet it, but I really like this one. I am also going to take a peek at ATL +10.5. Its not typically my style to take such large road dogs against a team coming off a long week, but I was really impressed with their defense, particularly their front. The Rams OL was horrendous against BUF. That DL is obviously fantastic so it can be hard to make a judgement off of one game, but they were so thoroughly beaten its hard for me to automatically assume they cover a large number against a team that I believe to be under rated. I really liked what I saw out of Mariota, he was accurate, poised, and moving extremely well. Was not afraid of contact, was not skiddish at all. Threw the ball down field, with accuracy, made plays with his legs. Pitts should have a big game over the middle. Drake London looked fantastic. Cpat hit the hole like his life depended on it. Really great wiggle from him. Great speed/power combo. I was thoroughly impressed by him, seems like he took a step forward this offseason. Seems like a good teaser leg as well. I do like the idea of fading NE. That offense is pathetic and I think Bill has lost his touch. I think if this game was played in a month from now that the steelers would be 5-6 point favorites, at least. I think after they lose this week, Vegas will move them down a lot. Seems like a sharp bet to me. I will tail you with this one. I'm getting a piece of WAS/DET for DFS, so I'm with you on the over. I like the idea of ATL +10.5, especially since LAR's OL is still very much in flux. The only 2 things holding me back are: 1. The big advantage in rest / prep with LAR playing TNF and ATL 2. The travel / adjustment for ATL going to the west coast. Still, 10 is a LOT to give up. I kinda lean your way if you pushed me, but I'm going to stay away. With the news that Shaq Leonard & Alex Pierce is out, I'm comfortable going with JAX +3.5, although I'm also starting to lean with O45 there as well (maybe take both!). JAX pass rush is what protects the D the most, and against the IND OL, I think that's why over is in play - without Leonard, IND's D is way more vulnerable, especially with Eberfleus in CHI. There's no coincidence on why I'm taking TD props on both Zay Jones and Ashton Dulin given their longshot odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: Tua over 1.5 passing TDs +100 ? I missed that game almost entirely - how was MIA's revamped OL pass pro wise? If it was OK, definitely worth a shot. If it's still an issue, I'd pass. The biggest problem with backing MIA's pass attack is their OL pass pro. This is one where I'd love to watch the all-22, but at work this week, so limited time. Edited September 16, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dash Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 3 hours ago, Broncofan said: I'm getting a piece of WAS/DET for DFS, so I'm with you on the over. I like the idea of ATL +10.5, especially since LAR's OL is still very much in flux. The only 2 things holding me back are: 1. The big advantage in rest / prep with LAR playing TNF and ATL 2. The travel / adjustment for ATL going to the west coast. Still, 10 is a LOT to give up. I kinda lean your way if you pushed me, but I'm going to stay away. With the news that Shaq Leonard & Alex Pierce is out, I'm comfortable going with JAX +3.5, although I'm also starting to lean with O45 there as well (maybe take both!). JAX pass rush is what protects the D the most, and against the IND OL, I think that's why over is in play - without Leonard, IND's D is way more vulnerable, especially with Eberfleus in CHI. There's no coincidence on why I'm taking TD props on both Zay Jones and Ashton Dulin given their longshot odds. You don't think the colts try to shorten the game and just pound Taylor all day? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Dash said: You don't think the colts try to shorten the game and just pound Taylor all day? With JT it might not shorten the game. The JAX rush D wasn't that great. Edited September 16, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 (edited) 14 hours ago, Broncofan said: OK here we go with player props for Sunday, and I'm confident enough to go 2U win results on a few.... EARLY Jameis Winston O1.5 pass TD's +110 - the only way you score consistently against TAM's D with Vita Vea is with the pass. If I think NO's O is getting 2 TD's, I have to take this prop. As I'm on the Saints ML, I'm definitely going here. Maybe the Saints win a 16-13 game and it blows up, but I'm willing to go with what I think is more of a -150 line. Saquon Barkely O75.5 rush yards 2U - the NYG OL looked super impressive in run blocking (pass pro a diff story). They now face the D that just gave up 200+ rush yards to CLE. The Browns OL is a great unit, but I put NYG in the top half and likely top 10 run-wise. This should have been at least 85+, and understanding Barkley finally has all the burst/explosion/sudden COD ability back 18 months post-ACL, I'm confident enough to risk to win 2U. Zay Jones O43.5 rec yards 2U - the Jags #2 target last week, and tied for RZ looks with Christian Kirk. Besides the volume, as he plays outside, he'll face some Gilmore, but also gets Facyson - which is a far better matchup than Kenny Moore in the slot (and why I'm not on Kirk this week). I'm also confident enough to increase my Jones TD prop to 1.6U/0.4U there, and play him in DFS. LATE Trey Lance O1.5 pass TD's +160 - this is all about the payout vs. the prob. SEA's pass D is absolutely their weak spot - and even with no Kittle I expect Davante Adams O7.5 catches - the Raiders showed they are willing to pepper him. Won't make it 2U as the number's only 1.5 below my projection, but given how bad ARI's D is, I have to have some stake here. Jerry Jeudy O57.5 rec yards 2U - the line doesn't change even though the pass D is just as leaky - and IMO, Wilson is likely only going to Jeudy's way even more. I can also support Courtland Sutton O54.5 rec yards, but Jeudy is going to be get even more looks as he continues to separate and be wide open (he was there so many times, including the ill-fated 3rd down and 16 where they took the safe dump off - leading to the incredulous play-for-FG by Hackett). With the Kamara & Kittle injuries, SF & NO props aren't out for receivers or TD's, but I am still very much interested in Brandon Aiyuk & NO receiver props. Also no MNF props out, but those are ones that I really like now, and IMO several of them will only get higher #'s to back. Adding in a couple more: Trey Lance O189.5 pass yards 2U - my eyes did a double take when I saw this number. In the unplayable monsoon last week - he threw for 160+ yards, with only 13 completions. SEA just gave 340+ yards to Russell Wilson when they were apparently being tipped as to what DEN O was throwing on many plays. TBH, this might be a 4U play. Don't get me wrong, I don't think he's throwing for 300+, but my number I had in mind was 230 - he threw for 250+ against HOU's porous pass D last year without Kittle, this is much the same idea. Juwan Johnson O19.5 rec yds 2U - with Kamara likely out, the Saints won't turn to more RB pass catching work with other guys, but likely use Johnson more. He's now their pass catching TE, and his blocking has improved to the point where he's out-snapping Adam Trautman 2-1. This number again should be in the low 30's, so this is an easy 2U play. Still no NO-TB TD props, I'd definitely look to add J-Johnson TD props as well. Very much interested on Kyle Phillips (although he's on injury report) yard props, and Brandon Aiyuk yard/catch props as well. I'm now up to 25U at stake so far, so unless there's a smash spot I'm missing, I'm probably done for now. Edited September 17, 2022 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dash Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 8 hours ago, Broncofan said: With JT it might not shorten the game. The JAX rush D wasn't that great. See your point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 13 hours ago, Broncofan said: I like the idea of ATL +10.5, especially since LAR's OL is still very much in flux. The only 2 things holding me back are: 1. The big advantage in rest / prep with LAR playing TNF and ATL 2. The travel / adjustment for ATL going to the west coast. Still, 10 is a LOT to give up. I kinda lean your way if you pushed me, but I'm going to stay away. Yeah, the extra days for mcvay after a loss is not ideal, but I think that is baked into the line a bit Going west is 10x easier than going east. As someone that lives on the west coast, going east suuuuucks. When I fly back home I have an extra three hours and zero jet lag Playing a game at 4:25pm (east coast team going west) is muuuch different than at 10am (west coast team going east) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldfishwars Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Michael Carter > 20.5 receiving yards Saquon Barkley > 29.5 receiving yards Drake London > 49.5 receiving yards Geno Smith < 205.5 passing yards Russell Wilson > 246.5 passing yards Darren Waller > 51.5 yards receiving 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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