Weekly Bets Thread

[JaguarCrazy2832]

6 hours ago, JonStark said:

Anyone have a draftkings survivor pool for around $20-50? The only one they have up there is $100 buy in. 

I wish, i was wondering the same thing. I did really well last year

[Broncofan]

All right, player props are starting to trickle in, so starting to get my Week 1 card in.  Some of these bets (ATS / ML picks) were placed over 10 days ago, so I'll try to refresh the new line:

ATS/ML/RACE's (assume -110 odds and 1U-result ATS/ML bets and 0.5U per RACE, if not listed otherwise)

TNF

BUF ML -120 (at opening - now -135) EDIT:  Added in-game for another U - nothing against LAR, I have nothing but love for them.  But I just like the matchup here, especially with a bunch of guys hurting and coming back for LAR.   EDIT:  As posted later, live ML bet at halftime for -115 also hits.

EARLY SUN GAMES

SF -7 @ CHI 2.2U - yes, I know the Lance Q's remain.   SF is just better on both sides of the ball.  The Bears are just so talent-poor on both sides of the ball.   I honestly expect this could be a 31-14 type game.

BAL -7 @ NYJ - I took this before Zach Wilson got hurt, I have a lot of respect for Saleh, but this is going to take a while.  BAL has actual CB's back, which changes their D back to their usual stingy selves.   I think a 31-17 or 27-13 type game.

JAX +145 ML (now +120) / RACE  to 20/25/30 (+175/+325/+500) - people are finally getting the memo on JAX's improvements and WAS's struggles.    

LATE

EDIT SUNDAY SEPT 11 AM:  MIN +110 ML / RACE to 20/25 (+160/+240) - as expected, the GB T's and Lazard are out.  Adding this in to the card, gotta have more dogs, intradivision and home dog fits the bill.

SNF

TAM/DAL U49.5 +100 2U (at opening, U51.5 now U50.0) - with all the OL issues on both sides of the ball, this line seems mega inflated.  I was considering DAL ML, but now both OL's are in serious trouble, so much easier to tackle the under here.  Think it's more likely to be 20-17 than 27-24.  

MNF

DEN -4 @ SEA (now 6.5) 2.2U - I hammered this at opening.  Won't lie, as long as it's -7 or better, I'd still back this.     

I've also played a 8-leg ML parley with BUF / JAX / SF / PHI / BAL / NO / KC / DEN for +3500 a week ago - with JAX / DEN lines moving, it's already down to +2700.    That's a total of 14U on ATS/ML/RACE's including the parley (only about 5-10 percent tops on parleys, 10 max) - but 2U are already in the bank with BUF W for 2U.

 

PLAYER PROPS (assume 1U-win result bets unless otherwise stated)

TNF

EDIT SEPT 8:  Josh Allen O37.5 rush yards - as posted later on in thread, played 1 hr before game time, hits easily with 48 yards.

EARLY

Trevor Lawrence O1.5 pass TD's +140 - better receivers, better OL, better coaching.  And a WAS pass D that was bottom 5 in DVOA.   Add in no Chase Young either.   You're giving me +140 on what seems like a -110 prop.  

EDIT  SEPT 11 PRE-GAME - VOIDED: Justin Fields O34.5 rush yards - Fields will be forced to run with his OL issues, and frankly, it's one of the few weapons CHI can leverage outside of Darrell Mooney and Cole Kmet (more on him later).   Last year he went for 100+ on SF, and I expect the new coaching staff to let Fields use his mobility more (something Nagy & co. didn't actually design - smh).   Weather keeps me from going any higher than a 1U win investment.  EDIT:  Voided with field/rain issues.

EDIT SEPT 11 PRE-GAME - VOIDED - : Brandon Aiyuk O3.5 catches +125 - with Kittle out, the chances of getting more targets his way goes up exponenentially.   The weather/wind are the only reasons I don't go with more than 1U, but with Lance's arm talent, I don't see as much of an issue.  EDIT:  Voided with weather / field issues.

Christian Kirk O55.5 rec yards (EDIT: 2U win total) - this is a total reflection of Kirk's past volume, and ignores the fact he's Trevor Lawrence's main target option.   Then you add a WAS D that's very vulnerable to the pass game, and man, this is again at least 10+ yards too low.  

Christian McCaffrey O5.5 catches +120 (now O4.5 -145) - when CMC is healthy, he goes 6+ catches on 70+ percent of games.   Again, you're giving me +120, I'll take those odds.

DJ Moore O60.5 rec yards - I'll go with a guy who can get 61+ in 1 play...but also has had at least 7 targets in every game (he played 16), 8+ targets in 12/16 games last year, and 10+ in 9/17.   Volume = yards with a better QB.   I could take O5.5 catches at +125, but realizing he gets Denzel Ward a lot, I'll take the yardage prop instead, even with a lower payout (more important to just take the easier path to a W).

EDIT SEPT 11 PREGAME - VOIDED - Cole Kmet O3.5 catches +100 (now -130) O34.5 yards - besides Mooney, the focal point of the CHI O.  I expect negative game script, which is only more garbage time for him.  I'd love to see him at 4/40 by halftime, but I'm willing to be patient lol.  EDIT:  VOIDED DUE TO FIELD/WEATHER

AJ Brown O65.5 rec yards - man, there are 2 main targets in the PHI O - and AJB is going to soak up a 30+ percent target share.   You give me that, I'm going to easily put his number at 75+.    

Dallas Goedert O45.5 rec yards - did I mention the 2nd target?    Again, this is a number that is at least 10 yards too low.   I'll gladly take this now.

EDIT SUNDAY AM Dameon Pierce O47.5 rush yards - with Shaq Leonard out, I have to take a shot here.   This number should be at 60+ yards.   

EDIT SUNDAY AM Michael Pittman O63.5 rec yards - with the gamescript making this a much closer game than IND -7 initially, I'm comfortable with Pittman, who should feast with his QB connection improved 

LATE

Patrick Mahomes O2.5 pass TD's +150 - with the news that JJ Watt has a calf injury and is day-to-day, that absolutely crushes their D.   I know with Tyreek Hill gone, ppl are concerned that there is no alpha.   But they can just spread it around with Mahomes tossing the ball.  Rather than figure out who gets the ball, I'm happy to take +150 odds for what I see is a 50/50 prop.  The 'Zona secondary can be beat, so give me +150 odds on an elite QB, I'm in.

Justin Herbert O2.5 pass TD's +165 - this is even crazier IMO.    The weakest area of the LV D is their secondary.   The LAC OL is improved again.   50-50 prop that is +165?  Sign me up.

Saquon Barkley O26.5 rec yards - the new Daboll O works off the Andy Reid tree, which emphasizes using the pass game with RB's as an extension of their run game.   This number will likely be closer to 40+ in 2+ weeks time, assuming Barkley stays healthy.   

Austin Hooper O22.5 rec yards - Hooper is almost certainly the #2 target in TEN right now, and while it's going to be based around Derrick Henry, NYG's TE D is abysmal.   He could get this in the first 20 mins of play, and even though he's just an average athlete, a seam route could get this in 1 play.   For a guy with a clear path to 5-6 targets and a bad D, I'll gladly take this low number.

 

EDIT SUN AM:  Was given a 0.5U free bet - so I'm going to go YOLO here and go with Pierce O47.5 rush yds / Pittman O63.5 rec yards / Kirk O54.5 rec yards / Kmet O34.5 rec yds / Hooper O23.5 rec yds / Goedert O45.5 rec yds prop 6-leg parley for +5000 (totals slightly different than above 2-3 days later).

So now I'm up to 18U in player props (1-0 with TNF with late edition Josh Allen O38.5 rush yards hitting)

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

TNF

Lance McCutcheon +750 / +11000 2+ (0.4U/0.1U)****VOIDED**** - this is a VERY longshot prop, and it depends on 2 factors - first, Van Jefferson has to be inactive.   If Van J is active, then I'm pulling the bet (B365 allows me to, voids it as well if he's inactive).   Secondly, McCutcheon himself has to be active (because the other depth guys play ST, he could still be inactive - most books will void this bet in that case, however).    But if the above scenario happens, McCutcheon could easily be the RZ 3rd WR - and they are carrying fewer TE's to keep him, so he's potentially in EZ package plays.  I think he's way more talented than Skronek, so if he's active, we could see him used much like LAC uses Donald Parham (EZ/RZ special plays). 

Isiah McKenzie +350 / +4000 2+ (0.4U/0.1U) EDIT - 2nd bet at +450/+5000 (0.4U/0.1U) - This is as much about McKenzie's price and fact he's the slot guy.  Now, I know Jalen Ramsey played a ton of slot in 2021 - but as Darious Williams exits and David Long enters, it's far more likely Long stays in the slot.   Long's decent, but in the RZ, it's so hard to keep McKenzie in check.   Still, it's a longshot play, so not getting too invested, but I love the odds here.  EDIT:  With the odds pregame going up to +450/+5000 2+, I loaded a 2nd bet, as posted later.  

EARLY

EDIT SEPT 11 PREGAME - VOIDED - Trey Lance +200 (now +175) / +1800 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - Eli Mitchell banged up and a lot of new RB's in new roles.   No more Mostert.  Jerry Wilson Jr. could rain on this parade, but I love me some Cam-like game potential.  It's enough to bend my "take +250 or better) rule here.  EDIT:  VOIDED with weather/field issues.

EDIT SEPT 11 PREGAME - VOIDED : Danny Gray +1200 / +12500 2+ - another ripple effect from the Kittle injury, if there's pass work, more spread around, and I don't see the TE's getting it.  Gotta take a shot with these odds on Gray, who seems to have won at least a share of WR3 work over Juan Jennings.  EDIT:  VOIDED (also inactive)

Cole Kmet +375 / +4500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - keeping up with the Kmet love for the TD prop.   If anything, he's more of a target with the TE vulture Jimmy Graham gone.   This is way too low.   If I'm having a good start, I may increase this stake. 

Demetric Felton +750 / +11000 2+ (0.4U/0.1U) - he's apparently getting regular slot work.   Again, those odds are just crazy.  Worth a play.

 

LATE

Romeo Doubs +375 / +4000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U)*** - this could get pulled like McCutcheon - but I'm dropping this in now, before news on Allen Lazard's availability comes out.  If Lazard is inactive, Doubs' odds are going to drop like a rock.   I want the near +400 / +4000 bet in before I know what Lazard's status is.  If he's active, I'll consider pulling it before gametime.  But if he's out or iffy, then giddy up on the guy with the biggest physical matchup advantage. 

Kyle Phillips +800 / +12500 2+ (0.4U/0.1U) - I must be missing something here, as I do think Phillips is going to see significant snaps in the slot.   While his RZ PT is uncertain and he's not a big guy, he's shifty and gets separation.  At +800/+125000 this is simply too wide.    Have to take a shot here.

MNF

Eric Saubert +750 / +11000 (0.4U/0.1U) - this is where local knowledge helps.  Albert O is in the doghouse because of blocking issues - which means Saubert & Eric Tomlinson are going to see a lot more snaps early on (Greg Dulcich is on IR).   I definitely want a stab here and frankly, if I'm having a good weekend, I may increase the stake accordingly.

Interesting, there are very few games without TD props, so I'm likely pretty much done for now - that's 6U, but I may sprinkle another 0.5-1U here so far.

UPDATE SEPT 7: So that's now 29U in props, and that's pretty much at my limit.  Obviously if TNF goes well, it reduces my exposure, so then we can see if there are better options.    One nice thing with B365 - I can void the bets pretty much any time before game time (and if the player is inactive, it auto-voids).    So if your book does NOT allow this - then maybe wait (but then you also run the risk of a much worse line as gametime nears - as always, it's your $, your call).

UPDATE SEPT 9:  34U total weekly stake, but that counts TNF's bets, which went 4-0, and leave me +6.0U so far, and "only" 29U at stake.  Still, that's enough for now.   If anything, I may pull back on the CMC prop, or a game with weather concerns.

UPDATE SEPT 11: 38U total weekly stake, but again, with a 6.0U profit so far and 4-0 total, I'm risking 32U, plus the free bet 6-prop parley. A little higher over my max, but Week 1 is one where the leverage is in our favor.  BOL!

UPDATE SEPT 11 PREGAME:  SF-CHI bets voided except Kmet TD & SF -7 props; now 32U total slate, risking 26U today.

Edited September 11, 2022 by Broncofan
SEPT 11 130 PM - updated to reflect voided CHI-SF bets

[Broncofan]

My full-season plays:

Sutton O5.5 TD's

Sutton O930.5 yards

Jeudy O73.5 catches, O939.5 yards

Philly +300 NFCN champ

Breece Hall +800, Romeo Doubs +2000, D-Pierce +2000 OROY

Devin Llloyd +1400 DROY

Allen Robinson +2200 Comeback

Edited September 6, 2022 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

17 hours ago, Broncofan said:

All right, player props are starting to trickle in, so starting to get my Week 1 card in.  Some of these bets were placed over 10 days ago, so I'll try to refresh the new line:

ATS/ML/RACE's (assume -110 odds and 1U-result ATS/ML bets and 0.5U per RACE, if not listed otherwise)

BUF ML -120 (at opening - now -135) - nothing against LAR, I have nothing but love for them.  But I just like the matchup here, especially with a bunch of guys hurting and coming back for LAR. 

SF -7 @ CHI 2.2U - yes, I know the Lance Q's remain.   SF is just better on both sides of the ball.  The Bears are just so talent-poor on both sides of the ball.   I honestly expect this could be a 31-14 type game.

BAL -7 @ NYJ - I took this before Zach Wilson got hurt, I have a lot of respect for Saleh, but this is going to take a while.  BAL has actual CB's back, which changes their D back to their usual stingy selves.   I think a 31-17 or 27-13 type game.

JAX +145 ML (now +120) / RACE  to 20/25/30 (+175/+325/+500) - people are finally getting the memo on JAX's improvements and WAS's struggles.    

TAM/DAL U49.5 +100 2U (at opening, U51.5 now U50.0) - with all the OL issues on both sides of the ball, this line seems mega inflated.  I was considering DAL ML, but now both OL's are in serious trouble, so much easier to tackle the under here.  Think it's more likely to be 20-17 than 27-24.  

DEN -4 @ SEA (now 6.5) 2.2U - I hammered this at opening.  Won't lie, as long as it's -7 or better, I'd still back this.     

I've also played a 8-leg ML parley with BUF / JAX / SF / PHI / BAL / NO / KC / DEN for +3500 a week ago - with JAX / DEN lines moving, it's already down to +2700.    That's a total of 12U on ATS/ML/RACE's including the parley (only about 5-10 percent tops on parleys, 10 max)

 

PLAYER PROPS (assume 1U-win result bets unless otherwise stated)

Trevor Lawrence O1.5 pass TD's +140 - better receivers, better OL, better coaching.  And a WAS pass D that was bottom 5 in DVOA.   Add in no Chase Young either.   You're giving me +140 on what seems like a -110 prop.  

Christian McCaffrey O5.5 catches +120 (now O4.5 -145) - when CMC is healthy, he goes 6+ catches on 70+ percent of games.   Again, you're giving me +120, I'll take those odds.

Cole Kmet O3.5 catches +100 (now -130) 2U, O38.5 yards - besides Mooney, the focal point of the CHI O.  I expect negative game script, which is only more garbage time for him.  I'd love to see him at 4/40 by halftime, but I'm willing to be patient lol.

There are LOTS of games without player props out, so I'll add more later as they come.   For now, that's 5U invested.

 

 

 

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Lance McCutcheon +750 / +11000 2+ (0.4U/0.1U)**** - this is a VERY longshot prop, and it depends on 2 factors - first, Van Jefferson has to be inactive.   If Van J is active, then I'm pulling the bet (B365 allows me to, voids it as well if he's inactive).   Secondly, McCutcheon himself has to be active (because the other depth guys play ST, he could still be inactive - most books will void this bet in that case, however).    But if the above scenario happens, McCutcheon could easily be the RZ 3rd WR - and they are carrying fewer TE's to keep him, so he's potentially in EZ package plays.  I think he's way more talented than Skronek, so if he's active, we could see him used much like LAC uses Donald Parham (EZ/RZ special plays). 

Isiah McKenzie +350 / +4000 2+ (0.4U/0.1U) - This is as much about McKenzie's price and fact he's the slot guy.  Now, I know Jalen Ramsey played a ton of slot in 2021 - but as Darious Williams exits and David Long enters, it's far more likely Long stays in the slot.   Long's decent, but in the RZ, it's so hard to keep McKenzie in check.   Still, it's a longshot play, so not getting too invested, but I love the odds here.

Trey Lance +200 (now +175) / +1800 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - Eli Mitchell banged up and a lot of new RB's in new roles.   No more Mostert.  Jerry Wilson Jr. could rain on this parade, but I love me some Cam-like game potential.  It's enough to bend my "take +250 or better) rule here.

Romeo Doubs +375 / +4000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U)*** - this could get pulled like McCutcheon - but I'm dropping this in now, before news on Allen Lazard's availability comes out.  If Lazard is inactive, Doubs' odds are going to drop like a rock.   I want the near +400 / +4000 bet in before I know what Lazard's status is.  If he's active, I'll consider pulling it before gametime.  But if he's out or iffy, then giddy up on the guy with the biggest physical matchup advantage. 

Cole Kmet +375 / +4500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - keeping up with the Kmet love for the TD prop.   If anything, he's more of a target with the TE vulture Jimmy Graham gone.   This is way too low.   If I'm having a good start, I may increase this stake. 

Eric Saubert +550 / +10000 (0.4U/0.1U) - this is where local knowledge helps.  Albert O is in the doghouse because of blocking issues - which means Saubert & Eric Tomlinson are going to see a lot more snaps early on (Greg Dulcich is on IR).   I definitely want a stab here and frankly, if I'm having a good weekend, I may increase the stake accordingly.

Interesting, there are very few games without TD props, so I'm likely pretty much done for now - that's 4.5U, but I may sprinkle another 0.5-1U here so far.

Definitely going to be more player props coming, as maybe 1/4 of games are covered so far, and a lot of missing players.  BOL!

 

I like it. How do you have receiving prop lines already available on Bet365? I’m only seeing touchdowns.

Speaking of TD props, I’ll tack on this play:

Mark Ingram anytime TD +333 (1U) - Too high for a goal line back on a team that should outmatch the other and have game script in their favour. He punched in a TD in the third preseason game with starters in and Kamara available.

 

[Broncofan]

53 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

I like it. How do you have receiving prop lines already available on Bet365? I’m only seeing touchdowns.

Speaking of TD props, I’ll tack on this play:

Mark Ingram anytime TD +333 (1U) - Too high for a goal line back on a team that should outmatch the other and have game script in their favour. He punched in a TD in the third preseason game with starters in and Kamara available.

 

B365 is just starting to get more in, there are like 4-5 games in only on my board.   I live in Canada, so if you're doing NJ, maybe they're late in coming in.  They do have slightly different app versions for where you live.

PS - I added Kyle Phillips TD props.  They are the best value IMO on the board so far.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

7 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I like it. How do you have receiving prop lines already available on Bet365? I’m only seeing touchdowns.

Speaking of TD props, I’ll tack on this play:

Mark Ingram anytime TD +333 (1U) - Too high for a goal line back on a team that should outmatch the other and have game script in their favour. He punched in a TD in the third preseason game with starters in and Kamara available.

 

 

7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

B365 is just starting to get more in, there are like 4-5 games in only on my board.   I live in Canada, so if you're doing NJ, maybe they're late in coming in.  They do have slightly different app versions for where you live.

PS - I added Kyle Phillips TD props.  They are the best value IMO on the board so far.

BTW I think I know the issue you're facing - the player yardage props aren't listed if you click on the game page.   But if you click on Football - NFL - Player Props, then they all show up.

OK, with that in mind, a bunch more player props have shown up, and I'm on a bunch of them:

EARLY

AJ Brown O65.5 rec yards - man, there are 2 main targets in the PHI O - and AJB is going to soak up a 30+ percent target share.   You give me that, I'm going to easily put his number at 75+.    

Dallas Goedert O45.5 rec yards - did I mention the 2nd target?    Again, this is a number that is at least 10 yards too low.   I'll gladly take this now.

Christian Kirk O55.5 rec yards - this is a total reflection of Kirk's past volume, and ignores the fact he's Trevor Lawrence's main target option.   Then you add a WAS D that's very vulnerable to the pass game, and man, this is again at least 10+ yards too low.  

DJ Moore O60.5 rec yards - I'll go with a guy who can get 61+ in 1 play...but also has had at least 7 targets in every game (he played 16), 8+ targets in 12/16 games last year, and 10+ in 9/17.   Volume = yards with a better QB.   I could take O5.5 catches at +125, but realizing he gets Denzel Ward a lot, I'll take the yardage prop instead, even with a lower payout (more important to just take the easier path to a W).

Demetric Felton +750 / +11000 2+ (0.4U/0.1U) - he's apparently getting regular slot work.  Plus, he's their KR/PR.  So he's getting regular snaps on O, and he gets free opps on returns.      Again, those odds are just crazy.  Worth a play.   If TNF goes well, will consider adding here TBH.

LATE

Patrick Mahomes O2.5 pass TD's +150 - with the news that JJ Watt has a calf injury and is day-to-day, that absolutely crushes their D.   I know with Tyreek Hill gone, ppl are concerned that there is no alpha.   But they can just spread it around with Mahomes tossing the ball.  Rather than figure out who gets the ball, I'm happy to take +150 odds for what I see is a 50/50 prop.  The 'Zona secondary can be beat, so give me +150 odds on an elite QB, I'm in.

Justin Herbert O2.5 pass TD's +165 - this is even crazier IMO.    The weakest area of the LV D is their secondary.   The LAC OL is improved again.   50-50 prop that is +165?  Sign me up.

Saquon Barkley O26.5 rec yards - the new Daboll O works off the Andy Reid tree, which emphasizes using the pass game with RB's as an extension of their run game.   This number will likely be closer to 40+ in 2+ weeks time, assuming Barkley stays healthy.   

Austin Hooper O22.5 rec yards - Hooper is almost certainly the #2 target in TEN right now, and while it's going to be based around Derrick Henry, NYG's TE D is abysmal.   He could get this in the first 20 mins of play, and even though he's just an average athlete, a seam route could get this in 1 play.   For a guy with a clear path to 5-6 targets and a bad D, I'll gladly take this low number.

Those 8 bets are now on the board, and depending on how TNF goes, probably that's all for now, unless something ridiculous shows up.   One important note - my book allows me to void these bets as long as the game hasn't started.   That's a big plus - if your book doesn't allow this, then you probably need to be way more cautious.  In the end, it's your $ and your call.   BOL!

Edited September 7, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

For those that haven’t followed also understand I watch the games so I’ll go 90+ percent over on player props - because barring injury / benching they can always hit last minute - but they can also win very early in the game.    It’s just way more enjoyable for me to have the overs as a result.  
 

But then given the above ppl need to pick the over spots - because Vegas knows the above mentality affects public betting - unders always get less action and they set the totals accordingly.  I’m looking for leverage opps but keep the above in mind.     Caveat emptor.  

Edited September 7, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Ignore double post 

[Dash]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

 

BTW I think I know the issue you're facing - the player yardage props aren't listed if you click on the game page.   But if you click on Football - NFL - Player Props, then they all show up.

OK, with that in mind, a bunch more player props have shown up, and I'm on a bunch of them:

EARLY

AJ Brown O65.5 rec yards - man, there are 2 main targets in the PHI O - and AJB is going to soak up a 30+ percent target share.   You give me that, I'm going to easily put his number at 75+.    

Dallas Goedert O45.5 rec yards - did I mention the 2nd target?    Again, this is a number that is at least 10 yards too low.   I'll gladly take this now.

Christian Kirk O55.5 rec yards - this is a total reflection of Kirk's past volume, and ignores the fact he's Trevor Lawrence's main target option.   Then you add a WAS D that's very vulnerable to the pass game, and man, this is again at least 10+ yards too low.  

DJ Moore O60.5 rec yards - I'll go with a guy who can get 61+ in 1 play...but also has had at least 7 targets in every game (he played 16), 8+ targets in 12/16 games last year, and 10+ in 9/17.   Volume = yards with a better QB.   I could take O5.5 catches at +125, but realizing he gets Denzel Ward a lot, I'll take the yardage prop instead, even with a lower payout (more important to just take the easier path to a W).

Demetric Felton +750 / +11000 2+ (0.4U/0.1U) - he's apparently getting regular slot work.  Plus, he's their KR/PR.  So he's getting regular snaps on O, and he gets free opps on returns.      Again, those odds are just crazy.  Worth a play.   If TNF goes well, will consider adding here TBH.

LATE

Patrick Mahomes O2.5 pass TD's +150 - with the news that JJ Watt has a calf injury and is day-to-day, that absolutely crushes their D.   I know with Tyreek Hill gone, ppl are concerned that there is no alpha.   But they can just spread it around with Mahomes tossing the ball.  Rather than figure out who gets the ball, I'm happy to take +150 odds for what I see is a 50/50 prop.  The 'Zona secondary can be beat, so give me +150 odds on an elite QB, I'm in.

Justin Herbert O2.5 pass TD's +165 - this is even crazier IMO.    The weakest area of the LV D is their secondary.   The LAC OL is improved again.   50-50 prop that is +165?  Sign me up.

Saquon Barkley O26.5 rec yards - the new Daboll O works off the Andy Reid tree, which emphasizes using the pass game with RB's as an extension of their run game.   This number will likely be closer to 40+ in 2+ weeks time, assuming Barkley stays healthy.   

Austin Hooper O22.5 rec yards - Hooper is almost certainly the #2 target in TEN right now, and while it's going to be based around Derrick Henry, NYG's TE D is abysmal.   He could get this in the first 20 mins of play, and even though he's just an average athlete, a seam route could get this in 1 play.   For a guy with a clear path to 5-6 targets and a bad D, I'll gladly take this low number.

Those 8 bets are now on the board, and depending on how TNF goes, probably that's all for now, unless something ridiculous shows up.   One important note - my book allows me to void these bets as long as the game hasn't started.   That's a big plus - if your book doesn't allow this, then you probably need to be way more cautious.  In the end, it's your $ and your call.   BOL

You got Goedert having more targets than Smith?

[Broncofan]

10 minutes ago, Dash said:

You got Goedert having more targets than Smith?

Against DET yes.   Their LB/S pass D is the weak point.  And in the RZ he’s clearly 2nd.  

Edited September 7, 2022 by Broncofan

[BayRaider]

Do we think Ravens cover? 89% of the bets is on Ravens covering, it's hard to see that bet hitting because of that. But it is so tempting.

[Dash]

9 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Against DET yes.   Their LB/S pass D is the weak point.  And in the RZ he’s clearly 2nd.  

Ah ok thought you were talking about the season.

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, Dash said:

Ah ok thought you were talking about the season.

He will be close - and in terms of valuable targets he may in fact surpass Smith.    Given he’s such a RZ mismatch.

AJ Brown should get 150+ targets (30 percent share).   I think D-Smith will get 100+ but Goedert won’t be far behind.   But RZ looks should be heavily titled to Goedert FWIW.  

[BayRaider]

So I decided to not bet on Trey Lance to win MVP because the line has been juiced to death. It was 200 to 1 in June and now it's only 16 to 1. You would just be getting the left overs of all the sharks/whales that went big on Lance. Like buying a stock at an All Time High.

I usually only bet Week 1 of the season just to celebrate kickoff. Here are my bets:

A Hail Marry 5 Team Parlay:

Broncos ML -265

Colts ML -325

Bengals ML -275

Ravens ML -325

Jaguars/Commanders OVER 44 - 110

Risk $215.00 to win $1100.00

The one I'm worried about most is the Colts. They could easily lose on the road to the Texans. Road division game. I would be absolutely shocked if the Bengals, Ravens, or Broncos lost this week though. 

NFL Players Futures Bet:

Offensive Player of the Year:

Justin Jefferson +900

Risk $170.00 to win $1530.00

[JaguarCrazy2832]

3 hours ago, BayRaider said:

Do we think Ravens cover? 89% of the bets is on Ravens covering, it's hard to see that bet hitting because of that. But it is so tempting.

Some have moved to -7.5 now too