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Weekly Bets Thread


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going to do a 8 team division winner parlay probably slap $25 on a tix

 

locks for me: bucs, rams, and bills to win their division

North winners between MIN and GB - leaning towards GB despite no Adams but im torn

afc west: no idea who wins this..i originally went LAC but you cant overlook Chiefs upgrades defensively plus a stronger DEN+OAK team

nfc east: eagles have the best OL and DL in their division but the Cowboys have the best QB. my heart tells me PHI bc trenches+strong defense/run game..feel like Dak will take a step back without Cooper then again, MM systems never required 2 star WRs to generate a good pass O. 

afc south: coin flip betwen IND and TEN: leaning towards TEN (better coaching)

afc north: 3 team race depending on D Wat case. Ravens imo will have the best defense followed by CLE in that division. CIN got better at OL too, its really tough. leaning towards BAL (coaching edge)

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5 hours ago, indifference said:

going to do a 8 team division winner parlay probably slap $25 on a tix

 

locks for me: bucs, rams, and bills to win their division

North winners between MIN and GB - leaning towards GB despite no Adams but im torn

afc west: no idea who wins this..i originally went LAC but you cant overlook Chiefs upgrades defensively plus a stronger DEN+OAK team

nfc east: eagles have the best OL and DL in their division but the Cowboys have the best QB. my heart tells me PHI bc trenches+strong defense/run game..feel like Dak will take a step back without Cooper then again, MM systems never required 2 star WRs to generate a good pass O. 

afc south: coin flip betwen IND and TEN: leaning towards TEN (better coaching)

afc north: 3 team race depending on D Wat case. Ravens imo will have the best defense followed by CLE in that division. CIN got better at OL too, its really tough. leaning towards BAL (coaching edge)

Cincy will win the division.

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Overs are still weighted to win for Vegas, but the Patrick injury makes these all great plays (Jeudy TD's are the only one I'd pass on for now).   I thought they were going to be the top 2 regardless, but this takes away all doubt.  Injury is the only path I see either guy misses on the rec/yards prop, and Sutton seems a lock for 8+ TD's.

 

Edited by Broncofan
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  • 2 weeks later...
On 7/23/2022 at 5:54 AM, agarcia34 said:

I have placed two bets so far and it’s a player prop Derek Carr over 29.5 passing TDs -120. With the offense McDaniels is gonna use that is gonna go over by at least 7 TDs. We should see a 40 TD season from Carr. 
 

The other is Waller over 5.5 TDs -120 

He will finally get used in the red zone where he was basically an after thought with Gruden. McDaniels will get him the ball in the red zone. 

Love the carr over, and how it corolates with the waller tds. 

Davante is the best RZ target in the league. Waller should have space to work. I dont expect a ton of catches but hes going to be a third down monster over the middle. 

On 7/29/2022 at 12:52 PM, indifference said:

going to do a 8 team division winner parlay probably slap $25 on a tix

 

locks for me: bucs, rams, and bills to win their division

let me stop you right there.

do a three team parlay of your "locks" 

but mainly you should bet them individually

its better to place slightly higher bets on things you have more confidence in

(dont bet on the rams to win the division - but you do you)

Quote


nfc east: eagles have the best OL and DL in their division but the Cowboys have the best QB. my heart tells me PHI bc trenches+strong defense/run game..feel like Dak will take a step back without Cooper then again, MM systems never required 2 star WRs to generate a good pass O. 

 

eagles feel more talented in the trenches and theyve suddenly got some ballers on offense

their defense was very weak on the back end. their LBs were a$s. Safeties were bad in space. 

They have some new faces there so its possible the defense comes together

I also have zero faith in MM so theres no freaking way I would put money on dallas to win the division

Cowboys are a game by game bet only for me

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Some of the props that I like:

Kirk Cousins (O 4,200.5 passing yards): He had 4,200+ over the last two seasons as well as in 3/4 years in Zimmers system. With KOC taking over as the Vikings head coach they're reportedly going to have a much more pass happy offense and Stafford passed for 4,800 yards in the same scheme last season. 

Leonard Fournette (O 775.5 rushing yards): He's finally the clear cut #1, 3-down RB for the Buccaneers after finishing last season with over 800 yards despite missing 3 games and being in a committee to start the year. With the Buccaneers WR room being super banged up to start the season and Bowles taking over as HC I could see them implementing a more run heavy approach, particularly early on.

Daniel Jones (U 13.5 interceptions): Jones has never had more than 12 interceptions in a year during his 3 year career. Even when Josh Allen struggled early on in Buffalo, Daboll did a good job of managing him to limit his turnovers so I expect he'll do the same for DJ. I also think that if Saquan is healthy that he'll be the focal point for them and if DJ starts slow I also think that Tyrod Taylor will step in sooner rather than later. 

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Bets ive already placed

- Kyle Shanahan COY +2004 - This is a very narrative award and hes got some QB narrative that plays well in the media. He has put together some masterful gameplans with the team he assembled. He has won a lot of games over the last 3 years. Sign me right up for +2000! 

- Nick Bosa DPOY +1100 - This is another narrative award but its also about consistently stacking stats every week. Nick Bosa is about as consistent of a football player there is in the league. In week 2 of 2020 this dudes leg damn near snapped off at the dogsh!t turf in new jersey and he came back better than ever. He has the name and this defense is going to be the best in the nfl this year. +1100 

- Olave OROY +750 - Dude is a baller ready to ball out from day one like he has always done. NO shrewdly snagged a playmaker who they plan on peppering with passes

- Kenneth Walker OROY +1200 - He is a very talented, powerful runner. He feels like Petes wet dream and I think that means he is going to get fed. We get good value because vegas expects them to be losing and therefore "they will need to throw the ball" but in reality Pete is gonnna run the rock regardless. He is a tad oldschool at this point but its a winning formula overall, obviously 

- Quez Walker DROY +1000 - Great DL in front of him. They need a centerpiece to their defense. He is very talented but slid in the draft which is why we get great value. These awards require splash plays on D and he should have some opportunities in the middle of that defense

Breece Hall +500 - I havent checked recently but when I made this he was not the favorite when in reality he is the most likely player to win the award. He is such an instinctual runner with a real feel for the game. Very complete player

 

Last but certainly not least 

49ers over 10 wins:

- The defense is going to be the best in the NFL next season. The DL is stacked and extremely deep/well orchestrated, Fred Warner is a Samourai and the new gold standard in coverage, the secondary is talented and works in unison.

DeMeco Ryans is a field general who always has a plan. He was a coach on the field as a rookie. He calls fantastic games.

The niners play the AFCW which means its a bit of a murders row of QBs. Those games come a bit later in the season. That will give the offense time to sort out whatever they need to in the beginning of the season.

I am confident the offense will score enough points early, but even if they dont, this defense will keep them in games until they sort it out. 

It feels like vegas is pricing in a slow start to the season due to the unknown at QB. 10 does not feel like a very high number for how talented and well coached this team is. Schematically sound and supremely talented on both sides of the ball. 

The fact its 10 and not 10.5 also makes it a smash spot.

 

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I generally like to just bet on games than futures but I love Allen Robinson over 6 TDs @ -125. He's going to be the top redzone option by far. Stafford's O/U TDs is 34.5. Assuming he is around that, even if Kupp catches 12+, there is still ~20 TDs left. And besides Higbee, it's not like Skowronek, Tutu, and Kendall Blanton are going to catch of a lot of TDs. OBJ potentially coming back later and Van Jefferson getting healthy are other bodies, but don't think it will take much away from Robinson's share. I honestly like him to catch more TDs this year than Kupp.

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It’s pretty hardcore to bet preseason but 2 lines are imo wrong tonight: 

CAR +210 @ NE - Pats aren’t playing a lot of Mac Jones tonight.   CAR going to use Baker a fair amount then Darnold / Corral.    That’s a pretty big mismatch vs. Zappe / Hoyer.   Should be a pick ‘em imo.   I’d also note that in the first game BB didn’t even use his TO’s when the G-men were inside the 15 and down 1 pt.     He basically didn’t worry about the score.   Gotta take a dog shot here given the above. 
 

NO ML +130 @ GB - all both D’s have dominated. Now we get A-Rod sitting and Jordan Love (who threw 3 picks vs SF)?   I know the same will apply for NO QB’s but I will take plus money on another pick ‘em game.  

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I also think week 1 offers 2 bets that can be leveraged now with the TB12 news: 

1.  DAL ML +110 - I think TB12 plays.   But the OL expects Jensen to start on the IR, Wirfs has an oblique strain and they already lost Cappa (plus Marpet retirement).  Godwin won’t be even close to 100 percent.    DAL can still lose with their awful coaching / discipline (10+ penalty type game) but as TB12 absence lingers I imagine the line will shift to Dallas and it won’t be +money.    
 

2.  U50.5 pts - given the above any 50 pt line is nuts.  
 

I took plays on both right away.   As always BOL! 

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Favorite bets for Week 1 are 

Jags +3.5 vs Washington 

Giants +6 vs the Titans 
 

Will look towards adding those two sides to a 6.5 teaser with the Cardinals and the Colts and Maybe the Cowboys since the Bucs got massive OL issues 

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On 8/19/2022 at 5:48 PM, BayRaider said:

Where are you guys betting on player props? Sutton's TD and yardage props are the easiest smashes I've ever seen

BetMGM had them a while back but I found the same on B365 (which isn't available in US except New Jersey).

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