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Weekly Bets Thread


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On 2/1/2022 at 8:39 PM, Broncofan said:

Teasing totals absolutely lose money in the long run.   Spread teasers work a lot better for sure. Just there aren’t many combos with 1 game left. 

My book let's us doing 4 teasers on the same game. My betting group called it our "Golden Cross"

 

We only do the Golden cross with 13 point teasers as that has been the most successful in the past. So that would be Rams +9, Bengals +17, over 35.5, and under 61.5

 

61.5 scares me a little because I am expected a higher scoring Super Bowl, but I'm still taking it for sure. Not the best odds though, gotta risk $130 to win $100 which is what I consider to be my unit

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If you like the Bengals to win, consider Rams first half W/Bengals second half W at +700.

The Bengals start notoriously slow, and have turned into a comeback team that makes significant adjustments at half. If we win I like the odds of us coming from behind.

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What you guys say might be true about the over/under, but my prediction is 28-27 Bengals. So I'm gonna stick with that.

Did a two team parlay: Bengals ML (+170), Over 48 1/2 (-110). $300 to win about $1200. Also did a small $25 bet on Chase to win Super Bowl MVP which would pay $500. 

Been kind of bad with predicting the playoffs this year so far though, 6-6 overall (5-1 WC, 0-4 DV Round, 1-1 CC Round). I am 8-3 in my last 11 Super Bowls though dating back to the Packers vs Steelers in Super Bowl 45. My three being wrong: 49ers over Ravens, Falcons over Patriots, 49ers over Chiefs. 

If I lose, I lose, just play money and don't gamble often. Always gamble responsibility and bet money you don't care about losing/seeing again. 

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36 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

If you like the Bengals to win, consider Rams first half W/Bengals second half W at +700.

The Bengals start notoriously slow, and have turned into a comeback team that makes significant adjustments at half. If we win I like the odds of us coming from behind.

I wanted to bet the Bengals 4th QTR ML really bad, feel that bet is almost a shoe in whether they win or lose, but the book didn't have it. Can't wait for sports betting to be legal in California and not have to use these lame online websites. 

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4 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

If you like the Bengals to win, consider Rams first half W/Bengals second half W at +700.

The Bengals start notoriously slow, and have turned into a comeback team that makes significant adjustments at half. If we win I like the odds of us coming from behind.

Counterpoint, Mcvay is like 45-1 with a halftime lead. 

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SB MVP.. long shot odds im taking Jessie Bates 150-1 and Leonard Floyd 200-1. Stafford is a pick machine and Bengals OL is garbage, so if it goes to a defensive guy I like those two the most

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1 hour ago, adamq said:

SB MVP.. long shot odds im taking Jessie Bates 150-1 and Leonard Floyd 200-1. Stafford is a pick machine and Bengals OL is garbage, so if it goes to a defensive guy I like those two the most

I may have parlayed a Jessie Bates INT with Rams first half ML, Bengals ML at +5000…

Stafford has the tendency to throw the “punt” deep ball. Tartt dropped it last week - if Bates gets the opportunity he won’t. 

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On 2/7/2022 at 4:14 PM, DerbyRam said:

It's a good suggestion, but honestly I can see Aaron Donald winning the MVP and that would be my dark horse bet. He has a bigger reputation than Stafford and he's got a good matchup to thrive. If the game is close, and I suspect that's going to be the case, then it could come down to the defender who closes the game out. 

I do think the Rams will scheme the defensive line up predominantly to make it very difficult for the Bengals to get four hands on him, which we saw in the game against Tampa where Von and Donald almost lined up shoulder to shoulder. 

I really like the value from betting on Donald. 

2 of the last 3 defensive players to win MVP had a touch down in the game. Malcom Smith and Dexter Jackson. Von Miller won MVP with 2.5 sacks but Manning was basically done at that point and that was a Denver team who won by its defense. 

Stafford has the loveable loser story. Coming from the Lions to the Rams to show everyone he was the QB who they thought he could be. The narrative is there for Stafford the media will push for it as well as whoever is calling the game. 

Its a great match up for Donald no doubt but he would have to put up crazy numbers cause if Stafford is at worst steady in the game and goes for 250 and a couple of TDs its gonna be hard to give it to anyone else.

Only other player I can truly see win it from the Rams side is Kupp which his odds at +600 right now  

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I’m in the UK but this is the props that I’m going to bet on in a number of parlays available here:

Cooper Kupp - TD scorer
Joe Mixon - TD scorer
Samaje Perine - over 8.5 receiving 
Van Jefferson - over 29.5 receiving
Cam Akers - over 64.5 rushing 
Cooper Kupp - over 7.5 receptions
Ja’Marr Chase - over 5.5 receptions
Joe Burrow - to throw an INT
Matthew Stafford - to throw an INT
Aaron Donald - to get a sack
Von Miller - to get a sack
Mike Hilton - over 4.5 tackles & assist
Jalen Ramsey - over 3.5 tackles & assist

LA Rams to win the race to 10 points
Bengals to win coin toss & Rams to get the first down of the game

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5 hours ago, MWil23 said:

Best prop bet:

Bet that the winning coin toss team DEFERS. 92% since 2008...the outlier was the Saints who had orchestrated that 2nd half onside kick vs. the colts.

That's gotta be like -3000 DEFERS vs +1000 RECEIVES or something

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On 1/13/2022 at 12:12 AM, Broncofan said:

I already put 2U on TEN +1400, and I figured that either CIN/BUF were likely going to be playing them.   So I took Georgia -2.5 / CHA NBA ML +120 / PHI NBA -6.5 & added SB props on CIN/SF & 1U plays on BUF/LAR/DAL with that 3-leg play (using the $$ from the reg season, i figured I could play with 10U on Monday).   I also took the 3-leg play for 2U and both single bets, so Monday was a great night lol - now it puts me in play.

The end result - I've got 6U worth of tickets on TEN for 28U, CIN & BUF for 40U each now - basically playing the field against KC in the AFC.   PIT, NE & LV, I just don't see them making long runs.   For the NFC, I now have DAL/SF/LAR for 40U - again, I'm playing the field against TAM & GB.   I don't see PHI or ARI as able to make long runs because of the gaps in their roster.   

As someone who backed TAM hard last year and made a TON of $$ (from start to finish, I made over 100U with their playoff run), it's nothing personal - but their WR injuries and their holes on D, I just don't see them being overcome.  GB/KC are deservedly seen as favorites, but the odds don't represent much value.   If it comes down to the NFCG/AFCG against 1 of my 3 teams then I'm going to hedge them like crazy lol.  

 

 

 

 

 

Pretty light card, given that I've got SB winner cards on both the Bengals & Rams for 42U each, and the loser 14U.  But here goes....

LAR -3.0 1H - I think the Rams trench edges are such an advantage.   And McVay's conservative ways don't usually go crazy until the 2H (although the decision on 4th and short at CIN 40's might burn me here).    

CIN ML 2H +130 - to be clear, I'm saying CIN outscores LAR in the 2H.   I'm probably going to take the 4Q ML too once it becomes live.    I still think LAR wins the game, but this is all about Sean McVay's conservative game calling letting CIN catch up.   There's risk in that LAR could still win the 2H by getting a big 3Q, but I have enough trust in Burrow & McVay's conservative ways to play this.   This should be an even money prop, if not the usual -110 IMO, so I'm happy to take this.     I'll probably double down on this if LAR is up 10+ by halftime.

Joe Mixon O24.5 rec yards 2.2U to win 2U - been my favorite SB prop since the CG's ended.    Definitely worth 2U.

Kendall Blanton O29.5 rec yards 2.2U to win 2U - with Higbee out, Blanton becomes the main TE target - and CIN is so leaky to TE's.   Another 2U play.

Ja'Marr Chase O3.5 rush yards - the Chase run is a great way to get him the ball and to slow down the Rams pass rush.  I think this could be broken by the 1Q on 1 play, TBH.   

Odell Beckham O62.5 rec yards - I just love the matchup here, and it's so clear who the #2 guy is in LA now.    

Aaron Donald O1.5 sacks +150 - he's a -220 for 1 sack, so the value isn't great there, but given the interior pressure, I'm willing to take the plus money play on 2+ sacks. 

Ben Skowronek +1400 TD / +12500 2+ (0.9U/0.1U) - if this wasn't the last game of the year, it's likely only a 0.45U / 0.05U play...but YOLO.   He dropped a wide open TD, and CIN is not going to pay him much attention, so if there's a WTF TD, not a bad play...especially with Higbee out.    Worth a final longshot play.


MVP plays - Donald +1400, Chase +2200 both worth 1U each, the probability if CIN/LAR wins makes both much stronger plays at that number.   


With my SB ticket in for a guaranteed 56U win thanks to my taking LAR/CIN (along with BUF/TEN/DAL/SF) in those start-of-playoff 5-leg parleys (for which the 4-leg won solo 10U and paid off all the other props with profit), it's going to be the most enjoyable no-sweat SB ever.   But no reason we can't end it on a positive note prop-wise.  BOL!

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 22 (SUPER BOWL!)

ATS 66-50; 18-22 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +134.1U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win, and then Week 16/17 parley with MIA-3 Week 16 MNF / DAL ML hoops / Georgia -7 NCAAF / PHI / TEN / LAR / CIN ML for +7000 0.5U). 

Player props - 175-170, +29.1U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-83 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +36.9U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +200.1U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 - +29.3U Week 17 +32.9U Week 18 - +23.0U Week 19 <WC Weekend> - -8.0U  Week 20 <Division Weekend> - +3.2U   Week 21 <Conf Championship Weekend> -1.0U)

 

Edited by Broncofan
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On 2/6/2022 at 12:38 AM, Broncofan said:

With the Senior Bowl practices done I think we have our first draft longshot value - Malik Willis 1.1 at +8000.    I’m hoping 1.2 gets released soon and is +4000 or better.   Both are worth 1U plays.  
 

Why?  Well it’s becoming clear the draft is deep with trench help.   But Willis is starting to show that tools-insane ceiling we saw with Trey Lance.     And we saw Kyler helium pass Nick Bosa.    Now obv JAX isn’t taking QB.   But the trench depth also means they may be very open to trading down.  That’s a huge reason why it’s +8000 now.   But I’m also convinced Willis is likely the top QB off the board.   And that means +8000 is insane no matter if JAX is there.   Because there is no consensus 1.1 it makes a trade-back more possible.  I’m just hoping I can take 1.2 at +4000 as I’d be very much on Willis making that leap (and as top QB with the insane ceiling - which is now the narrative post-SB) - is very possible.  We’ve seen it before.  
 

As long as JAX owns 1.1 it’s not happening.  But I’d put a trade back as a 15-20 percent probability.  And it’s only going to be for a QB IMO.   At 1.2 the scenarios really open up.   Why Id be happy even if it’s “only” +4000 or more there. 

 

FWIW Malik Willis is now +2500 to be 1.1.   Still a big longshot, but if you took Willis at +8000, you're loving how the line is moving pre-Combine. 

Again, there's ZERO shot Jacksonville is taking Willis - but if there's no head-and-shoulders consensus 1.1 (or if JAX wants to take a LT), then moving down to a team that wants to take the Lance/Allen all-tools/bust-floor/insane ceiling labelled guy (I really didn't think Willis has the same ceiling as Allen, but the Senior Bowl did a ton of good for his ceiling perception, can't deny it), then we've seen QB go 1.1 so many times.   At +2500, obviously way less value now.

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