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Love Burrow under 282.5 aside from the road game against the Ravens Burrow has not went over that number in any of his road games this season. Also a QB playing his first road playoff game. His highest passing yards on the road aside from the Ravens game is 271 against the Lions. Number is just to high. Yes Bengals are throwing more and relying on the pass but this is a good match up for the Titans DL. Tennessee is 2nd in average time of possession and don’t think the chances will be there for him to hit the over 

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12 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Joe Burrow over 276.5 yards passing (2u) - Same idea everyone else has. Ever since Reiff went down, our effectiveness rushing the ball has dropped off significantly. I don’t think we find ground success versus TENs #2 ranked run defense, but they are proven to be susceptible to the pass. This game falls on Joey B airing it out. 

Tee Higgins over 62.5 yards receiving, and Ja’Marr Chase over 76.5 yards receiving (1u each) - Again, this falls in with the theme above. Both receivers outmatch TENs corners. Both will get theirs.

Denico Autry to record a sack +185, and Jeffrey Simmons to record a sack +195 (1u each) - No matter how much we game plan around our line, we are going to give up a few sacks. The weakness of this unit is undoubtedly the interior, which matches up poorly with TEN. TEN is also great versus the run, increasing the drop backs for Burrow and the likelihood to find himself in pass rushing situations. TEN doesn’t blitz either, so if they get home, they’ll get home with 4. At plus odds, I’ll gladly take both hoping one or both hit.

Also going to tail a few @Broncofan picks. Good luck everyone.

Strong start.   My only miss was Boyd and the RACE’s but that went almost completely according to script (9 sacks is insane though lol).

Edited by Broncofan
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23 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK, this weekend's card...

ATS/ML/RACE

SAT

CIN ML +170, RACE to 20/25 (+200/+350) - I expect a close game, and if CIN's going to win, it's almost certainly with them putting TEN in catchup gamescript, so there's a lot of value in taking the chase $ here.    Hendrickson returning, and Burrow being able to use the 3 WR's and Mixon in the pass game, while I do think Henry has some rust to shake off.   Keep in mind I've got SB tickets on TEN/CIN/BUF in the AFC (and SF/LAR in the NFC), with E/W (so winning the conference wins me $$ too).   So I'll take either result, but hopefully CIN gets to 20/25 first no matter what.  😃

SF +6, SF 1Q ML +140 - I'm not going to bet against A-Rod outright - but I do think where Shanahan excels is creating early advantages, and so I'm willing to take +money on a 1Q lead (and if it's tied, it pushes).    Ultimately, I'll take the points here game-wise, but I do think the 1Q ML has a ton of equity, given what we've seen SF do time and again with fast starts.

SUN

LAR +140, RACE to 25/30 (+240 / +400) - I hate that Whitworth is out, this makes the game a lot closer than I originally saw.  But I do not believe that Jensen or Wirfs are going to be effective.   That swings the OL/DL matchups heavily to both D's now - and TB12's weapon limitations with inside and outside pressure, that's a problem.  I see TAM winning this with a 2+ TO advantage, but if it's TO neutral, I think we'll see the LAR weapons expose TAM's secondary vulnerabilities.   I also have to take a shot on the RACES, because if it's a LAR win, I think it's a dominant one.   

BUF +110, RACE to 30/35 (+240 / +400) - nothing but respect for KC.  This is just a case where BUF matches up in a tough way for KC - Allen presents huge problems, and unlike last year, they've got a lot more diversity with Knox/Davis both taking a huge leap in their play this year, and Isaiah McKenzie providing the C-Patt type hybrid RB/WR weapon.    On the flip side, the BUF D is far better at run D than last year, so I'll take BUF.   Same deal as the other dogs - if I'm going to take the dogs ML, might as well take a shot on the tasty RACE +money payouts.

I do have a 5-leg 0.5U parley with the 4 ATS/ML plays above (combined with OBJ hitting his O46.5 rec yd prop on MNF WC game) at +5800 as well.   So that's 8.5U in play.

 

PLAYER PROPS

SAT

Joe Burrow O275.5 pass yds 2U - if CIN is going to be competitive, it's going to be the Burrow air show.   IMO this number is 25 yards too low.   So it's a 2U play.

Tyler Boyd O4.5 catches +160 2U - this is the best matchup assuming Janoris Jenkins plays, and the +160 is just crazy for what I think is a 50-50 or better play.  So it's worth 2U as well.

Ja'Marr Chase O76.5 rec yds - when Chase & Fulton have so much familiarity, and Burrow does too - IMO the edge goes to the QB-WR connection.   It doesn't have to be a ton of catches, either - we could see 1-2 40+ yard plays here. 

Eli Mitchell O79.5 rush yds - if JimmyG is hurting, then I expect a ton of short passes and runs (Deebo rush props are very appealing).   When SF wins, Mitchell actually goes past the 100+ yard mark, so while I'm not sure they win, I am confident in Shanny leaning on the run game barring an early large deficit.   So this is an easy play.

George Kittle O49.5 rec yds - I know Kittle's been a ghost for the last 3+ games.   But this is a game that sets up for him to have a huge day, with the short pass / drag route options.   Now that the # is below 50 yards, it's an easy call with how JimmyG's physical limitations are going to promote looking his way.  And with his YAC ability, we could break this in just 2+ catches. 

SUN

Odell Beckham O47.5 rec yds 2U - I can't imagine TAM won't try to take Kupp away much like we saw ARI try.  That only opens things up for OBJ, and it's clear Stafford looks his way.

Stefon Diggs O71.5 rec yds - KC is absolutely a strong pass D.  But when they do give up yards, they give it up in the 15-25 yard area.   Diggs may not get 7+ grabs, but I'm quite confident he'll get 80+ yards.   It's only a 15 percent margin, so I'm sticking with the 1U play.

Devon Singletary O60.5 rush yds - I do think KC will try to dare BUF to run the ball - and so that means more room for Singletary to operate.   This isn't a 2U play, because gamescript could change things, but I can't pass this up either.

Along with the plays above, I have a 6-leg with all of the above except Singletary for a cool +10000 0.5U lol.    So that's 11.5U in play here.    I would have been very interested in the Pringle catch props for +money (I'm thinking O3.5 +140 or better), as I think he'll have the best matchup - but there are no KC catch props.  

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

SAT

Aaron Rodgers +900 / +11000 2+ (0.6U/0.1U) - this reflects that SF's run D will key on the RB's and in RZ situations, they're always vulnerable to A-Rod getting out of the pocket.   Or a QB sneak if you get to the 1 yard line. So a rush A-Rod TD isn't at all out of the Q.   At these odds, gotta take a stab. 


SUN

OJ Howard +900 / +11000 2+ (0.6U/0.1U) - it was missed in last week's game, but OBJ was in on a lot of big formations, and they did have a RZ screen, and had him in 12 formation at the GL.   That sets up for some very tasty TD opps, at +900 it's worth a stab.

Noah Gray +2500 / +12500 2+ (0.55U / 0.05U) - Blake Bell is at +850, and I may add on, if the weekend is going well.  I just think with BUF's secondary, you have to think of the decoy targets here, and away from the WR's.

This puts 2.0U in play for longshot TD's, so I've got a total of 22.0U in play this weekend.  BOL!

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 19 (WC Round)

ATS 61-48; 16-20 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +127.9U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win, and then Week 16/17 parley with MIA-3 Week 16 MNF / DAL ML hoops / Georgia -7 NCAAF / PHI / TEN / LAR / CIN ML for +7000 0.5U). 

Player props - 170-163, +31.1U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-80 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +38.9U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +197.9U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 - +29.3U Week 17 +32.9U Week 18 - +23.0U Week 19 <WC Weekend> - -8.0U)

OK, well that was quite the Saturday!

The tally so far:

ATS/ML/RACE - I'm 2-1 in ATS/ML, because I took SF 1Q ML, but SF +6 & CIN +170 both win - DOGS BARKING BABY!   I go 0-4 (at 0.5U each) for the RACE's, but that puts me -0.3U so far combined - but my 5-leg parley with OBJ O46.5 rec yds MNF WC Game / CIN ML +170 / SF +6 / LAR ML +130 / BUF ML +110 for +5800 0.5U is VERY much alive.  So I've got a 29.0U potential winfall (and if LAR wins, I can look for a live hedge if KC trails anytime in 2H for pretty solid $, but I prefer the BUF W lol)  Let's go Rams & Bills tomorrow!

PLAYER PROPS - 3-2, with Tyler Boyd 2U +160 and Eli Mitchell O79.5 rush yards both missing badly.  But Joe Burrow O275.5 pass yards 2U and Ja'Marr Chase O76.5 rec yds and George Kittle O47.5 rec yards all hit comfortably, so that's a 1.0U profit.


LONGSHOT TD PROPS - 0-1, A-Rod didn't score the lone TD, so that's a -0.7U L.

So I've literally gone even for Saturday - but my 5-leg ATS/ML parley +5800 0.5U is now live with LAR/BUF left.    So let's go LAR/BUF!

Edited by Broncofan
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On 1/13/2022 at 6:11 PM, SmittyBacall said:

For those that believe in a Bengals playoff run and want a nice value long-shot, Tee Higgins is +2500 to lead the playoffs in receiving yards.

Higgins was 3rd in the NFL for most receiving yards since Week 12 (was nursing a shoulder injury, now healthy). Also, Chase will be the focus of double teams, as teams will learn their lesson from KC game. Chase is +1400, which is also good value. I’ll be sprinkling 0.5u on both, as well as Davante Adams +1000 (even with the bye). 

The rest of the field is meh.

Well, I’m glad I hopped on Chase at +1400. He’s got a pretty substantial lead without any threatening competitors at the moment, but you never know - Evans, Kelce, even Tyreek could make a push. If he can put in another 75+ yard performance I think it’s locked up. Looking good right now.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/stat/receiving/table/receiving/sort/receivingYards/dir/desc

 

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7 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Akers finished with… 48 yards. 

Bummer. 

Which if he hangs on to the ball he gets at least 2 more and finishes the game.  At least it paid off my race to 30 and LAR still won lol.  But yeah for 2 mins I was pretty salty lol. 

Edited by Broncofan
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On 1/22/2022 at 12:17 AM, Broncofan said:

OK, this weekend's card...

ATS/ML/RACE

SAT

CIN ML +170, RACE to 20/25 (+200/+350) - I expect a close game, and if CIN's going to win, it's almost certainly with them putting TEN in catchup gamescript, so there's a lot of value in taking the chase $ here.    Hendrickson returning, and Burrow being able to use the 3 WR's and Mixon in the pass game, while I do think Henry has some rust to shake off.   Keep in mind I've got SB tickets on TEN/CIN/BUF in the AFC (and SF/LAR in the NFC), with E/W (so winning the conference wins me $$ too).   So I'll take either result, but hopefully CIN gets to 20/25 first no matter what.  😃

SF +6, SF 1Q ML +140 - I'm not going to bet against A-Rod outright - but I do think where Shanahan excels is creating early advantages, and so I'm willing to take +money on a 1Q lead (and if it's tied, it pushes).    Ultimately, I'll take the points here game-wise, but I do think the 1Q ML has a ton of equity, given what we've seen SF do time and again with fast starts.

SUN

LAR +140, RACE to 25/30 (+240 / +400) - I hate that Whitworth is out, this makes the game a lot closer than I originally saw.  But I do not believe that Jensen or Wirfs are going to be effective.   That swings the OL/DL matchups heavily to both D's now - and TB12's weapon limitations with inside and outside pressure, that's a problem.  I see TAM winning this with a 2+ TO advantage, but if it's TO neutral, I think we'll see the LAR weapons expose TAM's secondary vulnerabilities.   I also have to take a shot on the RACES, because if it's a LAR win, I think it's a dominant one.   

BUF +110, RACE to 30/35 (+240 / +400) - nothing but respect for KC.  This is just a case where BUF matches up in a tough way for KC - Allen presents huge problems, and unlike last year, they've got a lot more diversity with Knox/Davis both taking a huge leap in their play this year, and Isaiah McKenzie providing the C-Patt type hybrid RB/WR weapon.    On the flip side, the BUF D is far better at run D than last year, so I'll take BUF.   Same deal as the other dogs - if I'm going to take the dogs ML, might as well take a shot on the tasty RACE +money payouts.

I do have a 5-leg 0.5U parley with the 4 ATS/ML plays above (combined with OBJ hitting his O46.5 rec yd prop on MNF WC game) at +5800 as well.   So that's 8.5U in play.

 

PLAYER PROPS

SAT

Joe Burrow O275.5 pass yds 2U - if CIN is going to be competitive, it's going to be the Burrow air show.   IMO this number is 25 yards too low.   So it's a 2U play.

Tyler Boyd O4.5 catches +160 2U - this is the best matchup assuming Janoris Jenkins plays, and the +160 is just crazy for what I think is a 50-50 or better play.  So it's worth 2U as well.

Ja'Marr Chase O76.5 rec yds - when Chase & Fulton have so much familiarity, and Burrow does too - IMO the edge goes to the QB-WR connection.   It doesn't have to be a ton of catches, either - we could see 1-2 40+ yard plays here. 

Eli Mitchell O79.5 rush yds - if JimmyG is hurting, then I expect a ton of short passes and runs (Deebo rush props are very appealing).   When SF wins, Mitchell actually goes past the 100+ yard mark, so while I'm not sure they win, I am confident in Shanny leaning on the run game barring an early large deficit.   So this is an easy play.

George Kittle O49.5 rec yds - I know Kittle's been a ghost for the last 3+ games.   But this is a game that sets up for him to have a huge day, with the short pass / drag route options.   Now that the # is below 50 yards, it's an easy call with how JimmyG's physical limitations are going to promote looking his way.  And with his YAC ability, we could break this in just 2+ catches. 

SUN

Odell Beckham O47.5 rec yds 2U - I can't imagine TAM won't try to take Kupp away much like we saw ARI try.  That only opens things up for OBJ, and it's clear Stafford looks his way.

Stefon Diggs O71.5 rec yds - KC is absolutely a strong pass D.  But when they do give up yards, they give it up in the 15-25 yard area.   Diggs may not get 7+ grabs, but I'm quite confident he'll get 80+ yards.   It's only a 15 percent margin, so I'm sticking with the 1U play.

Devon Singletary O60.5 rush yds - I do think KC will try to dare BUF to run the ball - and so that means more room for Singletary to operate.   This isn't a 2U play, because gamescript could change things, but I can't pass this up either.

Along with the plays above, I have a 6-leg with all of the above except Singletary for a cool +10000 0.5U lol.    So that's 11.5U in play here.    I would have been very interested in the Pringle catch props for +money (I'm thinking O3.5 +140 or better), as I think he'll have the best matchup - but there are no KC catch props.  

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

SAT

Aaron Rodgers +900 / +11000 2+ (0.6U/0.1U) - this reflects that SF's run D will key on the RB's and in RZ situations, they're always vulnerable to A-Rod getting out of the pocket.   Or a QB sneak if you get to the 1 yard line. So a rush A-Rod TD isn't at all out of the Q.   At these odds, gotta take a stab. 


SUN

OJ Howard +900 / +11000 2+ (0.6U/0.1U) - it was missed in last week's game, but OBJ was in on a lot of big formations, and they did have a RZ screen, and had him in 12 formation at the GL.   That sets up for some very tasty TD opps, at +900 it's worth a stab.

Noah Gray +2500 / +12500 2+ (0.55U / 0.05U) - Blake Bell is at +850, and I may add on, if the weekend is going well.  I just think with BUF's secondary, you have to think of the decoy targets here, and away from the WR's.

This puts 2.0U in play for longshot TD's, so I've got a total of 22.0U in play this weekend.  BOL!

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 19 (WC Round)

ATS 61-48; 16-20 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +127.9U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win, and then Week 16/17 parley with MIA-3 Week 16 MNF / DAL ML hoops / Georgia -7 NCAAF / PHI / TEN / LAR / CIN ML for +7000 0.5U). 

Player props - 170-163, +31.1U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-80 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +38.9U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +197.9U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 - +29.3U Week 17 +32.9U Week 18 - +23.0U Week 19 <WC Weekend> - -8.0U)

 

23 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK, well that was quite the Saturday!

The tally so far:

ATS/ML/RACE - I'm 2-1 in ATS/ML, because I took SF 1Q ML, but SF +6 & CIN +170 both win - DOGS BARKING BABY!   I go 0-4 (at 0.5U each) for the RACE's, but that puts me -0.3U so far combined - but my 5-leg parley with OBJ O46.5 rec yds MNF WC Game / CIN ML +170 / SF +6 / LAR ML +130 / BUF ML +110 for +5800 0.5U is VERY much alive.  So I've got a 29.0U potential winfall (and if LAR wins, I can look for a live hedge if KC trails anytime in 2H for pretty solid $, but I prefer the BUF W lol)  Let's go Rams & Bills tomorrow!

PLAYER PROPS - 3-2, with Tyler Boyd 2U +160 and Eli Mitchell O79.5 rush yards both missing badly.  But Joe Burrow O275.5 pass yards 2U and Ja'Marr Chase O76.5 rec yds and George Kittle O47.5 rec yards all hit comfortably, so that's a 1.0U profit.


LONGSHOT TD PROPS - 0-1, A-Rod didn't score the lone TD, so that's a -0.7U L.

So I've literally gone even for Saturday - but my 5-leg ATS/ML parley +5800 0.5U is now live with LAR/BUF left.    So let's go LAR/BUF!

A good Sunday....but a 13-sec / OT comeback away from a GREAT day - lost the BUF ML & +5800 0.5U parley (an couldn't hedge with KC falling behind in last 2 minutes, lines closed lol).   

ATS/ML - For Sunday 1-1 (3-2 total), with BUF ML losing and LAR +140 winning, and RACES 2-0 Sunday (2-2 total) but the BUF +400 RACE to 35 winning, and LAR RACE to 25/30 both hitting at +240/+400, so that's a total of +4.2U for the weekend.

PLAYER PROPS - 1-2, but the 2U play wins with OBJ O47.5, while both BUF props whiff - so that's a 4-4 weekend, for a 1.0U profit.

TD PROPS - 0-2, not really close, 0-3 for the weekend, for a -2.0U total.

So that's a net +3.2U profit for the Division weekend, but a BUF W away from hitting 32U+, sooooo close.   Ah well, profit's profit - looking to stick above the 200U mark next weekend!

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 19 (WC Round)

ATS 64-50; 18-22 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +132.1U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win, and then Week 16/17 parley with MIA-3 Week 16 MNF / DAL ML hoops / Georgia -7 NCAAF / PHI / TEN / LAR / CIN ML for +7000 0.5U). 

Player props - 174-167, +32.1U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-83 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +36.9U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +201.1U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 - +29.3U Week 17 +32.9U Week 18 - +23.0U Week 19 <WC Weekend> - -8.0U  Week 20 <Division Weekend> - +3.2U)

 

 

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