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Weekly Bets Thread

BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
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JaguarCrazy2832

JaguarCrazy2832

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, TakeTheBallDeep said:

Week 1 lines I like as of right now 

Rams +2

Steelers +6.5

Lions +3.5

Dolphins -2.5

Panthers +4.5

Vikings +1.5

 

Going to stay away from Denver -4.5 at Seattle….feel like the Seahawks might be at their best for this game at least after hearing all offseason how bad they are going to be

Where the heck did you get Carolina +4.5?

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N4L

N4L

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On 8/12/2022 at 2:41 AM, N4L said:

49ers over 10 wins:

- The defense is going to be the best in the NFL next season. The DL is stacked and extremely deep/well orchestrated, Fred Warner is a Samourai and the new gold standard in coverage, the secondary is talented and works in unison.

DeMeco Ryans is a field general who always has a plan. He was a coach on the field as a rookie. He calls fantastic games.

The niners play the AFCW which means its a bit of a murders row of QBs. Those games come a bit later in the season. That will give the offense time to sort out whatever they need to in the beginning of the season.

I am confident the offense will score enough points early, but even if they dont, this defense will keep them in games until they sort it out. 

It feels like vegas is pricing in a slow start to the season due to the unknown at QB. 10 does not feel like a very high number for how talented and well coached this team is. Schematically sound and supremely talented on both sides of the ball. 

The fact its 10 and not 10.5 also makes it a smash spot.

With Garoppolo coming back, I like this bet even more. Not that he is going to be the starter (it is very clearly Trey's team) but it simply eliminates some injury risk for the mobile QB who likes to run but not slide (Trey slid for the first time in his entire life in a preseason game this year. He had not done so going back all the way to his days as a kid in MIN, apparently).

So, in the scenario Trey gets hurt, it is now Jimmy and not Sudfeld. Thats eliminates some of the risk of this bet. 

 

The niners may have some OL issues early in the season. Their pro-bowl level FS is also out the fist 4-6 weeks. Not good, but I still really love the roster construction overall and am pretty confident I will get at least a push here. 

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N4L

N4L

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Posted
On 8/12/2022 at 2:41 AM, N4L said:

Bets ive already placed

- Kyle Shanahan COY +2004 - This is a very narrative award and hes got some QB narrative that plays well in the media. He has put together some masterful gameplans with the team he assembled. He has won a lot of games over the last 3 years. Sign me right up for +2000! 

- Nick Bosa DPOY +1100 - This is another narrative award but its also about consistently stacking stats every week. Nick Bosa is about as consistent of a football player there is in the league. In week 2 of 2020 this dudes leg damn near snapped off at the dogsh!t turf in new jersey and he came back better than ever. He has the name and this defense is going to be the best in the nfl this year. +1100 

- Olave OROY +750 - Dude is a baller ready to ball out from day one like he has always done. NO shrewdly snagged a playmaker who they plan on peppering with passes

- Kenneth Walker OROY +1200 - He is a very talented, powerful runner. He feels like Petes wet dream and I think that means he is going to get fed. We get good value because vegas expects them to be losing and therefore "they will need to throw the ball" but in reality Pete is gonnna run the rock regardless. He is a tad oldschool at this point but its a winning formula overall, obviously 

- Quez Walker DROY +1000 - Great DL in front of him. They need a centerpiece to their defense. He is very talented but slid in the draft which is why we get great value. These awards require splash plays on D and he should have some opportunities in the middle of that defense

Breece Hall +500 - I havent checked recently but when I made this he was not the favorite when in reality he is the most likely player to win the award. He is such an instinctual runner with a real feel for the game. Very complete player

 

Last but certainly not least 

49ers over 10 wins:

- The defense is going to be the best in the NFL next season. The DL is stacked and extremely deep/well orchestrated, Fred Warner is a Samourai and the new gold standard in coverage, the secondary is talented and works in unison.

DeMeco Ryans is a field general who always has a plan. He was a coach on the field as a rookie. He calls fantastic games.

The niners play the AFCW which means its a bit of a murders row of QBs. Those games come a bit later in the season. That will give the offense time to sort out whatever they need to in the beginning of the season.

I am confident the offense will score enough points early, but even if they dont, this defense will keep them in games until they sort it out. 

It feels like vegas is pricing in a slow start to the season due to the unknown at QB. 10 does not feel like a very high number for how talented and well coached this team is. Schematically sound and supremely talented on both sides of the ball. 

The fact its 10 and not 10.5 also makes it a smash spot.

 

update: 

I took Josh Allen to win MVP +826. This dude will win an MVP at some point. He takes over games and is a media darling. That will help a lot. 

Nakobe Dean DROY +2000 - Talented player on a team that needs production in the middle. Great DL in front of him. Should have opportunities to make plays. 

Added to my Breece hall bet +800 - I know he hasnt looked great and carter will get a lot of work early in the season, but +800 seems like great value. 

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SmittyBacall

SmittyBacall

Posted
Posted

On Bet365 you can bet the exact order of the division. I took CIN->BAL->PIT->CLE +2500 and hedged it with BAL->CIN->PIT->CLE +1800.

There’s no doubt in my mind either Baltimore or Cincinnati win the division. And even though Trubisky/Pickett is perceived as a potential downgrade to the immobilized Big Ben, I actually think it’s a pretty clear improvement. For a team that finished 9-7 last year, I like them to finish in and around the same this year. As for Cleveland, something stinks. The 11-game Deshaun Watson suspension, the complete doubt I have in Brissett as a replacement, and just the general attitude towards Cleveland signing Deshaun and his inevitable unwelcoming return - I think they’re in for a tough year in a very competitive division. Not to mention Deshaun will be very long removed from his last football action when he does come back. Just sounds like a recipe for a down year.

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SmittyBacall

SmittyBacall

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, N4L said:

Nakobe Dean DROY +2000 - Talented player on a team that needs production in the middle. Great DL in front of him. Should have opportunities to make plays. 

I like this. 

12 hours ago, N4L said:

I took Josh Allen to win MVP +826. This dude will win an MVP at some point. He takes over games and is a media darling. That will help a lot. 

I think it’s either Allen, Herbert (+900), or Burrow (+1200). Guess which one I’m backing?

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JaguarCrazy2832

JaguarCrazy2832

Posted
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13 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

On Bet365 you can bet the exact order of the division. I took CIN->BAL->PIT->CLE +2500 and hedged it with BAL->CIN->PIT->CLE +1800.

There’s no doubt in my mind either Baltimore or Cincinnati win the division. And even though Trubisky/Pickett is perceived as a potential downgrade to the immobilized Big Ben, I actually think it’s a pretty clear improvement. For a team that finished 9-7 last year, I like them to finish in and around the same this year. As for Cleveland, something stinks. The 11-game Deshaun Watson suspension, the complete doubt I have in Brissett as a replacement, and just the general attitude towards Cleveland signing Deshaun and his inevitable unwelcoming return - I think they’re in for a tough year in a very competitive division. Not to mention Deshaun will be very long removed from his last football action when he does come back. Just sounds like a recipe for a down year.

I like that alot

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SmittyBacall

SmittyBacall

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, BayRaider said:

I’m really tempted to put $500 on Trey Lance winning MVP to win $8000. 

Not putting $500 on the Warriors right before the playoffs started to win $4500  still makes me cringe. I was a hair away from doing it. 

Save the donation. Put it on Joe Burrow +1200 instead. Thank me later.

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