Weekly Bets Thread

[Dash]

29 minutes ago, JonStark said:

Not much Mixon could do with 8 carries. 

True, but 3.4 ypc against one of the worst run defenses in the league does not give confidence he would be effective even with 20.

[JonStark]

1 hour ago, Dash said:

True, but 3.4 ypc against one of the worst run defenses in the league does not give confidence he would be effective even with 20.

Too small of a sample size to come to that conclusion. I think if you gave him 10-12 more carries against that defense, he gets the over.

[Dash]

5 hours ago, JonStark said:

Too small of a sample size to come to that conclusion. I think if you gave him 10-12 more carries against that defense, he gets the over.

He had a chance against the falcons too. Falcons 29th in run defense adjusted line yards by football outsiders. 17 carries for just 58 yards. Browns were worse but this game pushed them up to 27th. Ravens and saints sit 21 and 18 and they dont get many stuffs by the metrics. He didn't do anything in those games either. He's just been bad this year. O-line and coaching can play a part in it.

 

Edited November 1, 2022 by Dash

[Broncofan]

On 10/31/2022 at 11:57 AM, Broncofan said:

Absolutely the way to go prop wise.  Will tail Mixon on FD for O65.5 2U main prop, and also take the 1U alt line 80+ +180 & 100+ +400 0.5U (all FD lines)

The other prop that NO books have right now - Harrison Bryant rec yds.    They're waiting to see if Bryant is the only active TE, or if Pharoah Brown will play.   If it's anything less than 40, just hammer it and get the 50/75 yard props as well.

I'm also going to go with the Harrison Byant +400 TD prop / +4000 2+ (already down to +360/+3000 on FD) and 2 longshot TD props - Mike Thomas +500 / Trent Taylor +1100 (FD again) for 0.5U each.  With Stanley Morgan out, it's those 2 - and frankly, I think it's more likely Taylor plays a lot of slot, and could be the sneaky value.  I don't think books accounted for Morgan being out here (although to be fair, CIN might run the ball to the EZ each time lol).  BOL!

That's 5.5U on the line, so with the Allen TD props losing, I'm basically putting my +2U Week 8 on the line (lol).  BOL!

 

On 10/31/2022 at 3:07 PM, Broncofan said:

Fwiw if there’s anything 2022 has shown backing RB performance is the way to go.   I’d back both RB’s tonight.   Added Chubb O81.5 rush yds (FD) for 2U and 100+ for +180 1U as well.  

 

On 10/31/2022 at 7:13 PM, Broncofan said:

Adding Harrison Bryant o28.5 Rec yards 2U, 50+ Rec yds +320 & 75+ Rec yds 0.5U

This is the prop I think has the highest confidence with Njoku out.   Just took forever for books to get out.  With Chubb 3U play that’s 12U on the line tonight.  BOL! 

Man I called it dead wrong on Harrison Bryant.   ZERO role reversal with Njoku out.    And the play with Mixon was recs, not rushing...oh well.  At least Chubb hit both his alt lines, but with the 2U zero TD winners, it's a -5.2U MNF. 

This creates my first losing week since Week 2 - at -0.4U lol.   Still, hoping for betting things in Week 9.

 

 

 

SEASON TALLY up to Week 9 TNF 

ATS / ML & RACE

18-19-1 ATS, 9-12 ML/RACE (OK, but ML/RACE picks nowhere close to the 45+ percent I need to make ML/RACE's profitable). 

BALANCE -4.9U

 

PLAYER PROPS

70-58

+90.2U (42-29in 2U+ plays, with big +payouts <+300, +400, +500> on several alt lines)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

13-58 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 3 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop; and Week 4 Lat Murray +1000 / Josh Reynolds +500 / Jody Fortson +1000, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Adam Trautman +800 0.5U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200, Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 & +6000 2+, Week 8 TNF Isiah Likely +700).

+40.0U

 

TOTAL:   +125.3U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 - +23.2U, Week 5 - +41.9U, Week 6 - +16.2U. Week 7 - +36.0U  Week 8 - -0.4U  Week 9 TNF - +2.1U)

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

Edited November 4, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK 3 simple plays, and not going to extend it unless there's a killer compelling argument lol:

ATS/ML

PHI -7 1H 2U (FD) - pretty simple reasoning, PHI absolutely demolishes in the 1H, and with word Brandin Cooks has missed practice all week with his displeasure at not being traded - I love this 1H line.  

PLAYER PROPS

Dameon Pierce O62.5 rush yds 2U, 80+ +200, 100+ +420 0.5U FD - this line is ABSOLUTELY deflated because of his 35 yard performance against TEN last week - but the reality is TEN is #1 vs. run by DVOA.   PHI not only is a lot more pedestrian - they now miss Jordan Davis on IR.    This is my one solid 3.5U play.   

Honestly the rest of the props are so iffy because they're all dependent on game flow.    Even Goedert rec yds, Miles Sanders or Jalen Hurst rush props....can't figure out who gets it, and when the Iggles might pull back.  Pass on the rest

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Tyron Johnson +1400 DK (still +1000 on FD), +9000 2+ (Score) - 0.8U / 0.2U - I know, I know - he only got 5 snaps last week.   But that's because Brandin Cooks played (along with Dorsett & Chris Moore).   I just can't pass up that value.   It's already down to +850 on DK, as a reference.

So it's 6.5U on the board for TNF, hoping we get off to a good start.  BOL!   

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Broncofan

[N4L]

It feels very chalky, but Miles Sanders should have 100+ yards rushing (line is 78.5). He is a big play RB and is good for 10-15 carries each week. 

Last week he had 9 carries for 78 yards. He only played 55% of the snaps. I think they had a big lead in PIT and knew they were playing on TNF and intentionally monitored his workload. 

Their OL is just such a massive advantage, the gamescript is favorable, philly is one of the better rushing teams, and houston has had some major issues with their run D. I really cant see a reason not to take this other 

 

I am staying away from the Jalen Hurts rush prop. He has been running less the last few weeks. He has been running less. Here are his carries per week with the designed runs in ():

17 (8) - 90 yards against DET

11 (6) - 57 yards against MIN

9 (4) - 20 yards against wash

16 (9) - 38 yards against jax

15 (12) - 38 rush yards against ari

9 (5) - 61 rush yards against dal 

BYE

2 (1) - 5 rush yards against PIT

Not trending in the right direction for him recently. I will stay away. 

 

I like the pierce bet because houston will know they have to run the ball. Philly's secondary is too good to expect them to try and attack the eagles through the air. He is their bellcow. It makes sense they are going to commit to the run and stick to it all game. 

PHI first half bet is money as well. They are a first half team that can be had in the second half.  

I will probably play their first half team total as well. 

 

Some lines I am interested in that havent been released yet: Ekeler over rush+rec yards - he is coming off a bye, no mike williams, no keenan allen. They need to win. They will feed this man. Might go with his rush yards in addition to his rush+rec yards. 

Jamaal Williams over rush yards - He is the lead back there and GB can be had on the ground. DET OL is fantastic and its a bit of a revenge game for him. 

Jeff wilson JR over rush yards - He should hit the ground running. He knows the offense already. Mostert's knee is bothering him and he did not look super explosive last week. Bears run D is bad and they will have their hands full with tyreek and waddle so I think the running lanes will be there. Will probably also take the mostert rush yards but I think the line will be a lot higher and I do expect a near 50-50 split. Jeff can easily break 20-30 yard runs. Love the way he runs downhill. Its exactly what that offense needed. 

Will look to target KC passing game somehow against the titans. Probably Kelce receptions. 

[adamq]

Tyrone Johnson is still +1300 on caesars.. everyone else is dropping the odds

 

Looking at Boston Scott +480.. he's the short yardage/#2 back, and I can't see them risking injury on a qb run with Hurts vs the lowly Texans

 

https://www.scoresandodds.com/prop-bets/982701/joe-fortson

 

I use this site to check odds on the 4-5 major books.. they don't always have all the lines though, so if someone knows of a better (free) site let me know!

Edited November 3, 2022 by adamq

[JaguarCrazy2832]

I feel like everyone is on the Eagles 1H...I mean I am too but I hate that it feels so public

[Broncofan]

7 hours ago, adamq said:

Tyrone Johnson is still +1300 on caesars.. everyone else is dropping the odds

 

Looking at Boston Scott +480.. he's the short yardage/#2 back, and I can't see them risking injury on a qb run with Hurts vs the lowly Texans

 

https://www.scoresandodds.com/prop-bets/982701/joe-fortson

 

I use this site to check odds on the 4-5 major books.. they don't always have all the lines though, so if someone knows of a better (free) site let me know!

I can buy that - and on Score, Scott at +475 / +5000 2+ isn't crazy, 0.8U / 0.2U on both.   

[Broncofan]

On 11/2/2022 at 5:49 PM, Broncofan said:

OK 3 simple plays, and not going to extend it unless there's a killer compelling argument lol:

ATS/ML

PHI -7 1H 2U (FD) - pretty simple reasoning, PHI absolutely demolishes in the 1H, and with word Brandin Cooks has missed practice all week with his displeasure at not being traded - I love this 1H line.  

PLAYER PROPS

Dameon Pierce O62.5 rush yds 2U, 80+ +200, 100+ +420 0.5U FD - this line is ABSOLUTELY deflated because of his 35 yard performance against TEN last week - but the reality is TEN is #1 vs. run by DVOA.   PHI not only is a lot more pedestrian - they now miss Jordan Davis on IR.    This is my one solid 3.5U play.   

Honestly the rest of the props are so iffy because they're all dependent on game flow.    Even Goedert rec yds, Miles Sanders or Jalen Hurst rush props....can't figure out who gets it, and when the Iggles might pull back.  Pass on the rest

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Tyron Johnson +1400 DK (still +1000 on FD), +9000 2+ (Score) - 0.8U / 0.2U - I know, I know - he only got 5 snaps last week.   But that's because Brandin Cooks played (along with Dorsett & Chris Moore).   I just can't pass up that value.   It's already down to +850 on DK, as a reference.

So it's 6.5U on the board for TNF, hoping we get off to a good start.  BOL!   

 

 

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I can buy that - and on Score, Scott at +475 / +5000 2+ isn't crazy, 0.8U / 0.2U on both.   

Well, PHI didn't blow out HOU, so Boston Scott barely got any work...oh well, way it goes when you don't get the gamescript right.    If we all knew HOU would keep it tight - Goedert & AJ Brown props would have been taken (and would have lost 3.5U on Brown, but won 7U+ with Goedert - still, way it goes, have to trust your instincts).

But man, that was an easy-peasy +6.1U win with Dameon Pierce O63.5 / 80+ +200 / 100+ +420 0.5U - something to keep in mind with PHI D until rookie DT Jordan Davis returns.    So this makes for a +2.1U profit tonight - always take the plus start for the week!

[thebestever6]

11 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

But man, that was an easy-peasy +6.1U win with Dameon Pierce O63.5 / 80+ +200 / 100+ +420 0.5U - something to keep in mind with PHI D until rookie DT Jordan Davis returns.    So this makes for a +2.1U profit tonight - always take the plus start for the week!

it was beautiful the Alternate second prop for pierce was 12 yards away by half time wish they were all that easy 

[Broncofan]

OK for you DK bettors, there are 4 player props I am hammering right away for 2U each, 3 I'm willing to go 1U each, and then look at FD for the alt lines for another 1.5U each on the 2U plays, and a 0.5U play for the 3 1U plays.   Even better, if you lock them in now, 2 of the top 4 high-confidence plays, you get now for plus money:

1.  Tyler Boyd O61.5 rec yds +110 DK 2U - with Ja'Marr Chase out, the CIN O now becomes a 2-headed target hog share for Tee Higgins and Boyd.  The thing is, Boyd is going to play a LOT of slot, and Higgins is going to draw the top guy a lot.   This week, that's Jaycee Horn - who either follows Higgins, or stays on a side - and doesn't move in to slot that much, if at all.   CB Donte Jackson and S Justin Burriss are now out on the other side, and their slot guy is their weakness - so this is a hammer 2U spot.   Once FD has alternate 80+ and 100+ yard lines, I'll go 1U & 0.5U for the 3.5U stake.

2.  DJ Moore O64.5 rec yds +115 DK 2U - on the flip side, CIN's top 10 pass D takes a tremendous hit with 2 more CB's down (along with Eli Apple) - Chidube Awuzie & Tre Flowers join Apple on the sidelines.   Moore has been peppered by PJ Walker (who generally sucks, but he does feed Moore) since they benched Baker Mayfield.  The line probably reflects CIN's excellent pass D - but it's not the same anymore.   Going to likely go 90+ and 110+ here on FD.

3.  Darrell Mooney O43.5 rec yds DK 2U - Mooney's gone 50+ the last 5 games and his lowest 2 games were in the 50’s - and 1 of those 2 games was the NE drubbing, when the O let off the gas.  I do NOT expect that to happen with a game with MIA in town.  Will likely take the 70+ and 90+ yard props here for my 3.5U play given the craziness expected with Bears - Dolphins scoring wise.

4.  Robert Tonyan O30.5 rec yds DK 2U - Tonyan has gone 30+ yards the last 3 games - but I'm very interested in this, and the 50+ / 70+ yd props because DET's TE D is supremely awful - last in the league by DVOA.    With the choas in GB's WR corps, I see Tonyan taking advantage.  

 

I also like Kenneth Walker's O71.5 rush yds & Josh Jacobs O76.5 rush yds  & Justin Fields O49.5 rush yds props (all on DK) - but more likely I'll just dabble with a 0.5U 100+ play for the RB's and 70+ rush yds on Fields (and take 1U each on FD's main line) for 2.5U each, rather than a full 3.5U play.    

I'll have some ATS / ML & RACE plays and Longshot TD plays once they are out - but I wanted to lock in the value on those 7 player props with DK now.    I do miss having B365 post the main plays AND the alt lines ahead of time - but DK is actually ahead of B365 with the main plays, so I might as well take advantage where I see leverage.   BOL!

Edited November 4, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

2 really, really, really ridiculous longshot DK TD plays - Velus Jones +2200 (again! last time I'll likely put him on, but MIA shootout and more time needed to get Claypool integrated)  & MyCole Pruitt +1900 both on DK (very few opps, but a lot of 12 personnel near the GL for ATL).    At those odds, playing 0.5U each just can't pass up the value opp. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

20 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I feel like everyone is on the Eagles 1H...I mean I am too but I hate that it feels so public

Well damn

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Minny 1Q -0.5

Sea 1H

TB -3

Colts +6

Bills -12.5

Miami/Chi O42