Weekly Bets Thread

[SmittyBacall]

11 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK for you DK bettors, there are 4 player props I am hammering right away for 2U each, 3 I'm willing to go 1U each, and then look at FD for the alt lines for another 1.5U each on the 2U plays, and a 0.5U play for the 3 1U plays.   Even better, if you lock them in now, 2 of the top 4 high-confidence plays, you get now for plus money:

1.  Tyler Boyd O61.5 rec yds +110 DK 2U - with Ja'Marr Chase out, the CIN O now becomes a 2-headed target hog share for Tee Higgins and Boyd.  The thing is, Boyd is going to play a LOT of slot, and Higgins is going to draw the top guy a lot.   This week, that's Jaycee Horn - who either follows Higgins, or stays on a side - and doesn't move in to slot that much, if at all.   CB Donte Jackson and S Justin Burriss are now out on the other side, and their slot guy is their weakness - so this is a hammer 2U spot.   Once FD has alternate 80+ and 100+ yard lines, I'll go 1U & 0.5U for the 3.5U stake.

2.  DJ Moore O64.5 rec yds +115 DK 2U - on the flip side, CIN's top 10 pass D takes a tremendous hit with 2 more CB's down (along with Eli Apple) - Chidube Awuzie & Tre Flowers join Apple on the sidelines.   Moore has been peppered by PJ Walker (who generally sucks, but he does feed Moore) since they benched Baker Mayfield.  The line probably reflects CIN's excellent pass D - but it's not the same anymore.   Going to likely go 90+ and 110+ here on FD.

3.  Darrell Mooney O43.5 rec yds DK 2U - Mooney's gone 50+ the last 5 games and his lowest 2 games were in the 50’s - and 1 of those 2 games was the NE drubbing, when the O let off the gas.  I do NOT expect that to happen with a game with MIA in town.  Will likely take the 70+ and 90+ yard props here for my 3.5U play given the craziness expected with Bears - Dolphins scoring wise.

4.  Robert Tonyan O30.5 rec yds DK 2U - Tonyan has gone 30+ yards the last 3 games - but I'm very interested in this, and the 50+ / 70+ yd props because DET's TE D is supremely awful - last in the league by DVOA.    With the choas in GB's WR corps, I see Tonyan taking advantage.  

 

I also like Kenneth Walker's O71.5 rush yds & Josh Jacobs O76.5 rush yds  & Justin Fields O49.5 rush yds props (all on DK) - but more likely I'll just dabble with a 0.5U 100+ play for the RB's and 70+ rush yds on Fields (and take 1U each on FD's main line) for 2.5U each, rather than a full 3.5U play.    

I'll have some ATS / ML & RACE plays and Longshot TD plays once they are out - but I wanted to lock in the value on those 7 player props with DK now.    I do miss having B365 post the main plays AND the alt lines ahead of time - but DK is actually ahead of B365 with the main plays, so I might as well take advantage where I see leverage.   BOL!

Love these. Piggy-backing off Moore, also going to add PJ Walker passing yard milestones over 200 2U +100, 250 0.5U +390, and 300 0.5U +1450.

No Chido with Apple, Hilton, AND Flowers all banged up. Will be rookie Taylor-Britt’s 2nd start, and he didn’t look great last week. 

Carolina should be able to take what they want through the air.

[SmittyBacall]

JD McKissic has missed the last two practices. I’m interested to see what Antonio Gibson’s receiving/receptions look like.

[thebestever6]

what's everyone think of the Kyle Pitts over 39.5 yards and some alternate yardage props? LAC is nineteenth against tes and Mariota averages 22 passing attempts per game.

[SmittyBacall]

46 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Love these. Piggy-backing off Moore, also going to add PJ Walker passing yard milestones over 200 2U +100, 250 0.5U +390, and 300 0.5U +1450.

No Chido with Apple, Hilton, AND Flowers all banged up. Will be rookie Taylor-Britt’s 2nd start, and he didn’t look great last week. 

Carolina should be able to take what they want through the air.

Hilton now ruled out. Dax Hill likely to start in slot.

[SmittyBacall]

1 minute ago, thebestever6 said:

what's everyone think of the Kyle Pitts over 39.5 yards and some alternate yardage props? LAC is nineteenth against tes and Mariota averages 22 passing attempts per game.

Love Pitts, but he lost my trust in that offense months ago. 

It’s nice to see them including him more but I can’t trust an offense that is that run-centric.

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

JD McKissic has missed the last two practices. I’m interested to see what Antonio Gibson’s receiving/receptions look like.

Sadly the books are wise and haven't posted.   Dammit.

3 more TD props where I strongly suggest ppl look around as books haven't all caught up -

1. Denzel Mims +800 / +12500 2+ (0.9U/0.1U Sports Interaction <SI>) - sadly this has dropped to +360 on FD/DK & +500 on B365, but keep looking at all the other sources - I got Sports Interaction (Canuck book) at those before it dropped.  Corey Davis out again and Mims took nearly all the snaps at David’s spot.    Maybe less active books still have this crazy #.

2. Damien Byrd +700 / +10000 2+ (0.9U/0.1U SI) - this one was weird, as DK was at +300, realizing he's the #2 WR now.    B365 & SI have him at +650/700 - major value IMO.

3.  Noah Grey +1000 / +12500 2+ (still on B365 @SmittyBacall & @adamq - 0.9U/0.1U SI) - wait why am I veering away from my normal TE2 Jody Fortson?   It's not because he's +650 - it's because he's missed practices 2x with a hammy issue - huge red flag to not play.    That leaves Gray as the main TE2 and they usually get 2+ RZ looks a game.  Unlike those who can't get SI - B365 bettors, do it now if you are tempted, once Fortson news comes out, Grey's dropping at least to +500.

Edited November 4, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

8 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

what's everyone think of the Kyle Pitts over 39.5 yards and some alternate yardage props? LAC is nineteenth against tes and Mariota averages 22 passing attempts per game.

LAC has improved their run D, but SEA absolutely trucked them there.   If ATL does the same, they may not even throw it 20x.  That's what makes taking yardage/catch props so iffy on ATL players.  I think there are far better opps out there.

[Broncofan]

On 11/4/2022 at 12:00 AM, Broncofan said:

OK for you DK bettors, there are 4 player props I am hammering right away for 2U each, 3 I'm willing to go 1U each, and then look at FD for the alt lines for another 1.5U each on the 2U plays, and a 0.5U play for the 3 1U plays.   Even better, if you lock them in now, 2 of the top 4 high-confidence plays, you get now for plus money:

1.  Tyler Boyd O61.5 rec yds +110 DK 2U - with Ja'Marr Chase out, the CIN O now becomes a 2-headed target hog share for Tee Higgins and Boyd.  The thing is, Boyd is going to play a LOT of slot, and Higgins is going to draw the top guy a lot.   This week, that's Jaycee Horn - who either follows Higgins, or stays on a side - and doesn't move in to slot that much, if at all.   CB Donte Jackson and S Justin Burriss are now out on the other side, and their slot guy is their weakness - so this is a hammer 2U spot.   Once FD has alternate 80+ and 100+ yard lines, I'll go 1U & 0.5U for the 3.5U stake.

2.  DJ Moore O64.5 rec yds +115 DK 2U - on the flip side, CIN's top 10 pass D takes a tremendous hit with 2 more CB's down (along with Eli Apple) - Chidube Awuzie & Tre Flowers join Apple on the sidelines.   Moore has been peppered by PJ Walker (who generally sucks, but he does feed Moore) since they benched Baker Mayfield.  The line probably reflects CIN's excellent pass D - but it's not the same anymore.   Going to likely go 90+ and 110+ here on FD.

3.  Darrell Mooney O43.5 rec yds DK 2U - Mooney's gone 50+ the last 5 games and his lowest 2 games were in the 50’s - and 1 of those 2 games was the NE drubbing, when the O let off the gas.  I do NOT expect that to happen with a game with MIA in town.  Will likely take the 70+ and 90+ yard props here for my 3.5U play given the craziness expected with Bears - Dolphins scoring wise.

4.  Robert Tonyan O30.5 rec yds DK 2U, 50+ +240 & 70+ +580 0.5U FD - Tonyan has gone 30+ yards the last 3 games - but I'm very interested in this, and the 50+ / 70+ yd props because DET's TE D is supremely awful - last in the league by DVOA.    With the choas in GB's WR corps, I see Tonyan taking advantage.  

 

I also like Kenneth Walker's O71.5 rush yds & Josh Jacobs O76.5 rush yds  & Justin Fields O49.5 rush yds props (all on DK) - but more likely I'll just dabble with a 0.5U 100+ play for the RB's and 70+ rush yds on Fields (and take 1U each on FD's main line) for 2.5U each, rather than a full 3.5U play.    

I'll have some ATS / ML & RACE plays and Longshot TD plays once they are out - but I wanted to lock in the value on those 7 player props with DK now.    I do miss having B365 post the main plays AND the alt lines ahead of time - but DK is actually ahead of B365 with the main plays, so I might as well take advantage where I see leverage.   BOL!

 

On 11/4/2022 at 12:48 AM, Broncofan said:

2 really, really, really ridiculous longshot DK TD plays - Velus Jones +2200 (again! last time I'll likely put him on, but MIA shootout and more time needed to get Claypool integrated)  & MyCole Pruitt +1900 both on DK (very few opps, but a lot of 12 personnel near the GL for ATL).    At those odds, playing 0.5U each just can't pass up the value opp. 

 

21 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Sadly the books are wise and haven't posted.   Dammit.

3 more TD props where I strongly suggest ppl look around as books haven't all caught up -

3.  Noah Grey +1000 / +12500 2+ (still on B365 @SmittyBacall & @adamq - 0.9U/0.1U SI) - wait why am I veering away from my normal TE2 Jody Fortson?   It's not because he's +650 - it's because he's missed practices 2x with a hammy issue - huge red flag to not play.    That leaves Gray as the main TE2 and they usually get 2+ RZ looks a game.  Unlike those who can't get SI - B365 bettors, do it now if you are tempted, once Fortson news comes out, Grey's dropping at least to +500.

Getting Week 9's card all in 1 place:

ATS / ML & RACE

None for now...

 

PLAYER PROPS (ALT LINES on FD not released yet - FRI afternoon)

 

EARLY

Tyler Boyd O61.5 rec yds +110 DK 2U 80+ Rec yds +240 100+ +450 0.5U (last 2 FD) -  with Ja'Marr Chase out, the CIN O now becomes a 2-headed target hog share for Tee Higgins and Boyd.  The thing is, Boyd is going to play a LOT of slot, and Higgins is going to draw the top guy a lot.   This week, that's Jaycee Horn - who either follows Higgins, or stays on a side - and doesn't move in to slot that much, if at all.   CB Donte Jackson and S Justin Burriss are now out on the other side, and their slot guy is their weakness - so this is a hammer 2U spot.   Once FD has alternate 80+ and 100+ yard lines, I'll go 1U & 0.5U for the 3.5U stake.

DJ Moore O64.5 rec yds +115 DK 2U 80+ rec yds +220 100+  rec yds +420 0.5U (last 2 on FD) - on the flip side, CIN's top 10 pass D takes a tremendous hit with 2 more CB's down (along with Eli Apple) - Chidube Awuzie & Tre Flowers join Apple on the sidelines.   Moore has been peppered by PJ Walker (who generally sucks, but he does feed Moore) since they benched Baker Mayfield.  The line probably reflects CIN's excellent pass D - but it's not the same anymore.   Going to likely go 90+ and 110+ here on FD.

Darrell Mooney O43.5 rec yds DK 2U 70+ rec yds +320 90+ +700 0.5U (last 2 on FD) - Mooney's gone 50+ the last 5 games and his lowest 2 games were in the 50’s - and 1 of those 2 games was the NE drubbing, when the O let off the gas.  I do NOT expect that to happen with a game with MIA in town.  Will likely take the 70+ and 90+ yard props here for my 3.5U play given the craziness expected with Bears - Dolphins scoring wise.

Robert Tonyan O30.5 rec yds DK 2U, 50+ +240 & 70+ +580 0.5U FD - Tonyan has gone 30+ yards the last 3 games - but I'm very interested in this, and the 50+ / 70+ yd props because DET's TE D is supremely awful - last in the league by DVOA.    With the choas in GB's WR corps, I see Tonyan taking advantage.  

Justin Fields O49.5 rush yds - don't like this as much as Mooney's, but with CHI's coaching staff actually calling for 6-8 designed QB runs, have to take this.  Will likely take the FD 70+ alt line when it's offered for 0.5U (not out yet as of Sat)

Josh Jacobs O76.5 rush yds & 100+ +220 0.5U FD - JAX's run D isn't as worrisome as ARI's, but LV's O is so dysfunctional, I can't trust the 3.5U play.  Will likely take the 100+ 0.5U alt line though.

LATE

Kenneth Walker's O71.5 rush yds & 100+ +260 0.5U FD- ARI's top 12 ranked DVOA rush D is the only reason I don't hammer this for 3.5U - likely take a 100+ 0.5U shot once it's out.

 

SNF

Not out yet...

 

 

LONGSHOT TD PLAYS

EARLY

Velus Jones +2200 DK 0.5U - in a MIA shootout and the last game likely before Claypool really integrates in, just way too wide.   Other books have him at +700 to +800.

MyCole Pruitt +1900 DK 0.5U - ATL mostly runs close to the EZ - but they use a lot of 12 formation, and the LAC TE D sucks.   Pitts has no real TD value though, but Pruitt is the other look...and at close to 20-1, worth the 0.5U play.

Denzel Mims +800 / +12500 2+ (0.9U/0.1U Sports Interaction <SI>) - sadly this has dropped to +360 on FD/DK & +500 on B365, but keep looking at all the other sources - I got Sports Interaction (Canuck book) at those before it dropped.  Corey Davis out again and Mims took nearly all the snaps at David’s spot.    Maybe less active books still have this crazy #.

Damien Byrd +700 / +10000 2+ (0.9U/0.1U SI) - this one was weird, as DK was at +300, realizing he's the #2 WR now.    B365 & SI have him at +650/700 - major value IMO.

LATE

Nothing yet...

SNF

Noah Gray +1000 / +12500 2+ B365 & SI (0.9U / 0.1U) - Jody Fortson has missed practice, so I'm totally happy to get it down to 1 main TE2, who usually still gets 2+ RZ looks.   Worth the +1000 play, and get it now before Fortson is declared out, and the line drops a ton.

 

That's all for now - once the alt lines comes out, I'll add them in here.   BOL!

 

 

SEASON TALLY up to Week 9 TNF 

ATS / ML & RACE

18-19-1 ATS, 9-12 ML/RACE (OK, but ML/RACE picks nowhere close to the 45+ percent I need to make ML/RACE's profitable). 

BALANCE -4.9U

 

PLAYER PROPS

70-58

+90.2U (42-29in 2U+ plays, with big +payouts <+300, +400, +500> on several alt lines)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

13-58 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 3 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop; and Week 4 Lat Murray +1000 / Josh Reynolds +500 / Jody Fortson +1000, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Adam Trautman +800 0.5U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200, Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 & +6000 2+, Week 8 TNF Isiah Likely +700).

+40.0U

 

TOTAL:   +125.3U (Week 1 - +7.4U.   Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 - +23.2U, Week 5 - +41.9U, Week 6 - +16.2U. Week 7 - +36.0U  Week 8 - -0.4U  Week 9 TNF - +2.1U)

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

Edited November 5, 2022 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

dang Deon Jackson opened up at 47.5 yards rushing with the Taylor news coming out. I go to look up his previous games and it already went up to 55.5. Man should of jumped on it.

[goldfishwars]

I like the Titans -12.5 line versus the Chiefs. Tennessee’s defense is the best on third down in the league, where KC has lived this year. I think that will be a tighter game than that.

[Broncofan]

A couple of late TD additions - Chargers have so many guys missing anyone is live so going Richard Rodgers & Zander Horvath  for +1200 on DK at 0.5U each.   The FD alt lines came out and everyone but Fields rush yds had it - so took them all - listed above.  

ATS/ML wise, I'm going with TEN +12.5 (agree with @goldfishwars), CAR +7, LAR ML +140 and SEA ML +120 (don't trust the scoring enough to go RACES).    That's an extra 4U in ATS/ML and 1U in TD props.   BOL!

Edited November 6, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On 11/4/2022 at 6:35 PM, thebestever6 said:

dang Deon Jackson opened up at 47.5 yards rushing with the Taylor news coming out. I go to look up his previous games and it already went up to 55.5. Man should of jumped on it.

The IND OL is playing awful right now, and most of Jackson's points vs. DEN were accrued by pass catching.  I would personally stay away from the rush props TBH, especially because game script could favor a pass game approach.

Edited November 6, 2022 by Broncofan

[Malfatron]

Hammer ten at +12.5

Lar +3 is also a good bet. Maybe you might get a push

Balt only -1 against the saints seems odd too. Bet on lamar against that

[Malfatron]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

LAR ML +140 and SEA ML +120

Yeah the public still seems to think seattle sucks

[Broncofan]

8 hours ago, Broncofan said:

A couple of late TD additions - Chargers have so many guys missing anyone is live so going Richard Rodgers & Zander Horvath  for +1200 on DK at 0.5U each.   The FD alt lines came out and everyone but Fields rush yds had it - so took them all - listed above.  

ATS/ML wise, I'm going with TEN +12.5 (agree with @goldfishwars), CAR +7, LAR ML +140 and SEA ML +120 (don't trust the scoring enough to go RACES).    That's an extra 4U in ATS/ML and 1U in TD props.   BOL!

2 more Sun AM additions - with news Damien Harris is out, I'm adding Rhamondre Stevenson O24.5 rec yds, given IND's run D is much stouter than their pass D to RB's.    And I'm taking the 50+ rec yds alt line for +420 0.5U.    

Finally the Zylstra news comes as Brock Wright is very iffy to play - that makes James Mitchell a solid 0.5U play at +700 (now down already to +550 on B365).  So that's 2U added to the card as well.

FD offers a free 0.4U parley, so I'm going to go with Mooney O43.5 / Boyd O61.5 / Moore O64.5 / Tonyan O30.5 / Jacobs O76.5 / Walker-III O74.5 (went up a lot) / SEA ML +120 / TEN +12.5 - that way, if my 7 legs hit, I can hedge out on TEN, but I'm for a free +12500 play on the 8-legs I'm backing anyways.  Interestingly, Fields rush props have been taken completely off the board.  BOL everyone!