adamq Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 (edited) QBs to score- Aaron Rodgers +900 Herbert +600 I like to take a +400 or better QB or two every week.. these guys are past due and missing weapons. One more I've added, MVS +270. KC just traded for yet another WR. While Toney is probably to replace what Skyy has been doing, MVS still needs to step up today. Him and Mahomes have just been slightly off, but this will be the week he actually gets across the line. Added AJ Dillon +280/+1500 I'm on a "he's due" theme this week, it appears Edited November 6, 2022 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 After a very bad week , I have Buff -11.5 Mia -4 Jax +2 Atl +3 LA +3 i also have some NE/Mia ML parlays 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 (edited) The full (125 yds +880) Mixon ladder is 12 yards from cashing at halftime. 🤣 In other news, AJ Dillon has been pathetic Edited November 6, 2022 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 Dang we were all a week early on Mixon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 Tennessee +12.5 had to be the easiest win of the year, no? Gray should have hit! Still a chance in OT, I suppose 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 On 11/6/2022 at 12:17 AM, Malfatron said: Hammer ten at +12.5 Lar +3 is also a good bet. Maybe you might get a push Balt only -1 against the saints seems odd too. Bet on lamar against that Im a genious Even called the push 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonStark Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 The GB/DET teased over bet killed me, but I somehow managed to end just barely green. How does that matchup not hit 41? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 23 minutes ago, JonStark said: The GB/DET teased over bet killed me, but I somehow managed to end just barely green. How does that matchup not hit 41? B/c there are college teams with better receiver groups than what GB is running out there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 (edited) It was going to happen sooner or later, but Week 9 was a bad one, a couple of bad breaks, but also some plain bad calls (although who knew Mixon would do THAT). The tally: ATS/ML: 1-1 ATS, 1-1 ML, +0.2U. I gotta say, it kinda sucked hard on LAR ML - Sean McVay's conservative game management finally bit them (and by extension, me lol) hard. Oh well. CAR +7 though was just a bad, bad call. SEA ML & TEN +12.5 were easy money - Live & learn. PLAYER PROPS - Well I finally took a bath in the player props - pretty damn unlucky on 2/4 (Tonyan had 3/29 but got hurt, when the GB TE's went 9/75+ total, and Mooney got 2 late catches on bubble screens but got stuffed, and finished RIGHT on the number at 43 with O43.5 - ugh), and then got Mixon'd for the other 2 (Boyd/DJ Moore). 0/4 for all 3 major player props, though, so that puts me at -14U right off the bat. Fields O49.5 NEVER got any alt lines out - which really sucked as I was ready to take them (but Vegas knew something was up lol). Walker O71.5 and 100+ +240 did help, although Josh Jacobs O76.5 and Rhamondre Stevenson rec yds also lost. So it's literally 2-6, 0-4 major confidence plays - -13.0U TD PROPS - the only thing that kept the damage from being worse was Shane Zylstra +2000 0.25U (I wish it was 0.5U now lol) and James Mitchell +700 - it created a +7.0U day with the other misses. Sucks that some guys were REALLY close too (Gray & Mims in particular had excellent shots to pay off - oh well, way it goes). SEASON TALLY up to Week 9 TNF ATS / ML & RACE 19-20-1 ATS, 10-13 ML/RACE (OK, but ML/RACE picks nowhere close to the 45+ percent I need to make ML/RACE's profitable). BALANCE -4.7U PLAYER PROPS 72-64 +76.2U (42-33in 2U+ plays, with big +payouts <+300, +400, +500> on several alt lines) LONGSHOT TD PROPS 15-63 (win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 3U play, David Njoku +500 Week 3 TNF, and 3.2U cashout profit on Week 3 Zamir White/Tony Jones prop massive odds drop; and Week 4 Lat Murray +1000 / Josh Reynolds +500 / Jody Fortson +1000, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Adam Trautman +800 0.5U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200, Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 & +6000 2+, Week 8 TNF Isiah Likely +700, Week 9 Shane Zylstra +2000 DK & James Mitchell +700 DK). +47.0U TOTAL: +121.6U (Week 1 - +7.4U. Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh> Week 3 - +8.9U, Week 4 - +23.2U, Week 5 - +41.9U, Week 6 - +16.2U. Week 7 - +36.0U Week 8 - -0.4U Week 9 TNF - -3.7U) 2020 - +226U, 18% ROI. 2021: +251U, 27% ROI 2022: Edited Thursday at 11:20 PM by Broncofan Edited November 7, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 (edited) For tonight, not surprisingly, I've got 2 player props and 2 longshot TD props, but they're probably not who you think I'm going with 2nd-guy wise: PLAYER PROPS Alvin Kamara 6+ catches +160 2U, 7+ +320 1U, 8+ +600 0.5U - no surprise. Until a team shows they can take away the option route / dump-off, I have to go here. Juwan Johnson O2.5 catches +120 2U, 4+ catches +280 DK, 5+ +600 DK 0.5U - sadly even B365 isn't willing to go with the alt line prop - they're learning. With Olave likely to draw Humphrey, and some more attention paid to Kamara - this is the easiest next target to focus on. I know there are reports Trautman may return - but off an ankle injury, I'm willing to bank that Trautman does more blocking today. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. If ppl are wondering about Isiah Likely - NO has the #1 TE D by DVOA. As much as I absolutely want to smash this, I have to respect the methodology and pass here. If he has a big night - I then pay my respects. TD PROPS Juwan Johnson +400 / +4000 2+ DK 1.2U/0.3U - I'm shocked that they're willing to go this far on DK - and even FD is going at +360, seems wild. It's worth a slight uptick. Rashid Shaheed +1100 DK 0.5U - Another eye-raiser. I get it, he's not going to get a LOT of work, but he's going to get some with Michael Thomas gone, even if Landry is back (Shaheed & Callaway share the same role anyways). So that's 9U at stake, hoping we can rebound in a good way tonight after yesterday. If ppl are wondering why I'm NO heavy, it's simple - BAL isn't a team you usually attack through the ground, and I still think BAL finds a way to win - which means NO pass props. The other reason - the BAL props are pretty much picked to the bone, the books don't have great leverage spots. BOL! Edited November 7, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 7, 2022 Share Posted November 7, 2022 You can tell they're trying to get more ppl in with Turkey Day around the corner, I was given 1 SGP free bet, and 1 free TD bet (tempted to just keep piling on J-Johnson, lol) - but instead I'll add Tylan Wallace +1100 0.5U (Free) and the 0.5U SGP is going to be Kamara TD / Kamara 6+ catches / J-Johnson 3+ catches / Olave 6+ catches / Duvernay 4+ catches for +1800. Won't say no to a free bet there! BOL! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Broncofan said: For tonight, not surprisingly, I've got 2 player props and 2 longshot TD props, but they're probably not who you think I'm going with 2nd-guy wise: PLAYER PROPS Alvin Kamara 6+ catches +160 2U, 7+ +320 1U, 8+ +600 0.5U - no surprise. Until a team shows they can take away the option route / dump-off, I have to go here. Juwan Johnson O2.5 catches +120 2U, 4+ catches +280 DK, 5+ +600 DK 0.5U - sadly even B365 isn't willing to go with the alt line prop - they're learning. With Olave likely to draw Humphrey, and some more attention paid to Kamara - this is the easiest next target to focus on. I know there are reports Trautman may return - but off an ankle injury, I'm willing to bank that Trautman does more blocking today. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. If ppl are wondering about Isiah Likely - NO has the #1 TE D by DVOA. As much as I absolutely want to smash this, I have to respect the methodology and pass here. If he has a big night - I then pay my respects. TD PROPS Juwan Johnson +400 / +4000 2+ DK 1.2U/0.3U - I'm shocked that they're willing to go this far on DK - and even FD is going at +360, seems wild. It's worth a slight uptick. Rashid Shaheed +1100 DK 0.5U - Another eye-raiser. I get it, he's not going to get a LOT of work, but he's going to get some with Michael Thomas gone, even if Landry is back (Shaheed & Callaway share the same role anyways). So that's 9U at stake, hoping we can rebound in a good way tonight after yesterday. If ppl are wondering why I'm NO heavy, it's simple - BAL isn't a team you usually attack through the ground, and I still think BAL finds a way to win - which means NO pass props. The other reason - the BAL props are pretty much picked to the bone, the books don't have great leverage spots. BOL! 2 hours ago, Broncofan said: You can tell they're trying to get more ppl in with Turkey Day around the corner, I was given 1 SGP free bet, and 1 free TD bet (tempted to just keep piling on J-Johnson, lol) - but instead I'll add Tylan Wallace +1100 0.5U (Free) and the 0.5U SGP is going to be Kamara TD / Kamara 6+ catches / J-Johnson 3+ catches / Olave 6+ catches / Duvernay 4+ catches for +1800. Won't say no to a free bet there! BOL! Tylan Wallace inactive - so I'm getting that free bet returned for another day (won't let me cash out lol). FD came out with very late lines - and BOTH Demarcus Robinson and D-Jax came out at +650 - so taking 1U on D-Rob and 0.5U on D-Jax & 0.5U on James Proche. All of those guys are +300 or less everywhere else, can't pass up that value. Basically if 2 of those 3 hit, it's the gravy train, and 1 of 3 still nets profit. There's a combo prop for Lamar 200+ pass yds & Kamara 70+ rush yds, I wouldn't want to bet singles on either at usual odds, but both combined are boosted to +320, so I'll take that for 1U. BOL! Edited November 8, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dash Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 3 hours ago, Broncofan said: For tonight, not surprisingly, I've got 2 player props and 2 longshot TD props, but they're probably not who you think I'm going with 2nd-guy wise: PLAYER PROPS Alvin Kamara 6+ catches +160 2U, 7+ +320 1U, 8+ +600 0.5U - no surprise. Until a team shows they can take away the option route / dump-off, I have to go here. Juwan Johnson O2.5 catches +120 2U, 4+ catches +280 DK, 5+ +600 DK 0.5U - sadly even B365 isn't willing to go with the alt line prop - they're learning. With Olave likely to draw Humphrey, and some more attention paid to Kamara - this is the easiest next target to focus on. I know there are reports Trautman may return - but off an ankle injury, I'm willing to bank that Trautman does more blocking today. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. If ppl are wondering about Isiah Likely - NO has the #1 TE D by DVOA. As much as I absolutely want to smash this, I have to respect the methodology and pass here. If he has a big night - I then pay my respects. TD PROPS Juwan Johnson +400 / +4000 2+ DK 1.2U/0.3U - I'm shocked that they're willing to go this far on DK - and even FD is going at +360, seems wild. It's worth a slight uptick. Rashid Shaheed +1100 DK 0.5U - Another eye-raiser. I get it, he's not going to get a LOT of work, but he's going to get some with Michael Thomas gone, even if Landry is back (Shaheed & Callaway share the same role anyways). So that's 9U at stake, hoping we can rebound in a good way tonight after yesterday. If ppl are wondering why I'm NO heavy, it's simple - BAL isn't a team you usually attack through the ground, and I still think BAL finds a way to win - which means NO pass props. The other reason - the BAL props are pretty much picked to the bone, the books don't have great leverage spots. BOL! Not sure Humphrey shadows this season. ESPN WR/CB chart has him lining up at the RCB spot 85% of the time and Olave lines up on the other side 47% of the time with about 25% in the slot. Wouldn't be too worried about it but anything can happen. Robinson and Duvernay should hit a good amount of yardage this game for the Ravens with Lattimore and Roby out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, Dash said: Not sure Humphrey shadows this season. ESPN WR/CB chart has him lining up at the RCB spot 85% of the time and Olave lines up on the other side 47% of the time with about 25% in the slot. Wouldn't be too worried about it but anything can happen. Robinson and Duvernay should hit a good amount of yardage this game for the Ravens with Lattimore and Roby out. I also think Proche and D-Jax are all live. Duvernay / Likely will kill me if they gets the TD's, but I think Lamar throws for 2 and maybe 3 - I only need 1 of Proche/D-Jax/Duvernay to hit to profit, and if I get 2, it's a beautiful night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malfatron Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 20 hours ago, Malfatron said: On 11/6/2022 at 12:17 AM, Malfatron said: Hammer ten at +12.5 Lar +3 is also a good bet. Maybe you might get a push Balt only -1 against the saints seems odd too. Bet on lamar against that Im a genious Even called the push A genious i tell ya Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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