Weekly Bets Thread

[Rainmaker90]

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Yea I am on Pittsburgh ML, I did get sucked into taking Baltimore +3.5 but now I'm wondering if I need to cash that out

I’m in on Cinci large. 
 

Humphrey has a foot injury and may not play 

Marcus Williams is out 

 

Staley and Linderbaum also are likely out.

 

Cinci home opener after getting embarrassed week 1

[JaguarCrazy2832]

17 minutes ago, Rainmaker90 said:

I’m in on Cinci large. 
 

Humphrey has a foot injury and may not play 

Marcus Williams is out 

 

Staley and Linderbaum also are likely out.

 

Cinci home opener after getting embarrassed week 1

yea its the same narrative to back with the Giants, Seahawks and Steelers but for some reason that 3.5 got me

[Broncofan]

Along with Goedert Rec yards & Penny TD I’m adding Jordan Addison o38.5 Rec yds 2U DK +120 (combining the 50% boost offered for 2U max bets, already have Goedert/Penny TD plays in) - he’d still splitting wr2 duties with KJ Osborn.  But that’s going to change soon.  In a game where MIN likely trailing and a PHI pass funnel D and heavy attention on Justin Jefferson an easy play.  No alt lines out yet.

Edited September 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Along with Goedert Rec yards & Penny TD I’m adding Jordan Addison o39.5 2U FD - he’d still splitting wr2 duties with KJ Osborn.  But that’s going to change soon.  In a game where MIN likely trailing and a PHI pass funnel D and heavy attention on Justin Jefferson an easy play.  No alt lines out yet.

We have even better news for Addison - James Bradberry is not going to clear concussion protocol, so it's goiing to be Slay vs. JJ, and then other guys vs. Addison.

DK is offering a 50% boost with a 2U max, so I'm playing him on DK instead for O38.5 rec yds 2U DK at +122 (instead of -120).  I'm also taking the alt line 50+ rec yds at +160 for 1U, and the 75+ rec yds +500 alt line for 0.5U.

This now puts me at 8U played for TNF with Goedert/Addison 3.5U player props and 1U on Penny TD (who's down to +320 on DK and +220 on FD), and I honestly don't see any more value opps (I do like the Hock call, but I'm not going to invest in both guys here).   BOL!

Edited September 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

5 hours ago, Rainmaker90 said:

I’m in on Cinci large. 
 

Humphrey has a foot injury and may not play 

Marcus Williams is out 

 

Staley and Linderbaum also are likely out.

 

Cinci home opener after getting embarrassed week 1

I understand that Baltimore is dealing with a lot of injuries and they're on the road here, but I would be very wary of putting any big money on Cincinnati over the next month until Burrow returns to form. He didn't just have a random off day, he's coming back from injury and said post game he hamstring was still sore. It will take some time to knock the rust off.

We saw it last year with the appendectomy during training camp - he was uncharacteristically bad early, slowly progressed each week, and then played like an MVP the last dozen weeks or so. I think we see that again here. It wouldn't surprise me to see us lose (we lost to Pittsburgh and @ Dallas with Cooper Rush the first two weeks in 2023 to start 0-2), or see a banged up Ravens team keep it unexpectedly close.

Personally, I like the under in that game. 46.5 is too high for two teams with good defenses and a hobbled Burrow. Also, our last three match ups of 2023 came below that number (albeit, 2 of them were without Lamar). BOL.

[BobbyPhil1781]

Anyone have any "locks" they want to throw my way? Got a $100 bonus bet for using a DK referral match sign up so curious to see what everyone thinks compared to my thoughts.

[SmittyBacall]

@Broncofan Do you have a link for underdogs that cover winning 89% of games? Looking to link it for a friend that doesn’t believe me.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

@Broncofan Do you have a link for underdogs that cover winning 89% of games? Looking to link it for a friend that doesn’t believe me.

It's not underdogs - it's ALL teams that cover, and it's with spreads of 6 pts or less, too.   It includes both favorites and dogs that cover.   Teams that are favored ATS that cover obviously win 100% of the time.  That's about 40-44 percent the last 2 years.   That would mean that of the 60% of dogs that cover the spread, it's 49/60 = 80+ percent.    Or if it's 56 percent of dogs that cover, it's 35/44, so just under 80 percent for the dog sides.

Here's one link for 2023 first half:

 

https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/underdog-nfl-picks-trends - You'll see that of the 56% of dogs who were winning ATS, 40% were winning outright.   And again...that's all comers.   When you take away the >6 pt spreads, that number goes up to 89%.

Here's a reference to historical trends:

https://www.wunderdog.com/nfl/regular-season-nfl-philosophy - see section 6, where they point out that spreads only change the outcome 16%, 84% of the time the team that covers the spread also just wins outright.   Again, you're talking both favorites & dogs who cover.   

And that number of 84 percent - refers ALL spreads, including spreads of >6 pts.   There was another tweet or article in 2020 that pointed out when the spread was 6 points or less - that 84 percent goes to 89 percent.   It's actually somewhere here in last year's posting around this time lol.  I'll see if I can find it.

But to be clear - the 89 percent is ALL teams - so you have to take the 40+ percent of faves.  Still, that means 49/60 percent remaining ATS dogs that cover also win their games.  It's less impressive than 89 percent, but depending on the %faves that cover, we're back at the high 70’s to 80+ percent outright wins for dogs that cover.   Hope that helps.  

 

Edited September 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

It's not underdogs - it's ALL teams that cover, and it's with spreads of 6 pts or less, too.   It includes both favorites and dogs that cover.   Teams that are favored ATS that cover obviously win 100% of the time.  That's about 40-44 percent the last 2 years.   That would mean that of the 60% of dogs that cover the spread, it's 49/60 = 80+ percent.    Or if it's 56 percent of dogs that cover, it's 35/44, so just under 80 percent for the dog sides.

Here's one link for 2023 first half:

 

https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/underdog-nfl-picks-trends - You'll see that of the 56% of dogs who were winning ATS, 40% were winning outright.   And again...that's all comers.   When you take away the >6 pt spreads, that number goes up to 89%.

Here's a reference to historical trends:

https://www.wunderdog.com/nfl/regular-season-nfl-philosophy - see section 6, where they point out that spreads only change the outcome 16%, 84% of the time the team that covers the spread also just wins outright.   Again, you're talking both favorites & dogs who cover.   

And that number of 84 percent - refers ALL spreads, including spreads of >6 pts.   There was another tweet or article in 2020 that pointed out when the spread was 6 points or less - that 84 percent goes to 89 percent.   It's actually somewhere here in last year's posting around this time lol.  I'll see if I can find it.

But to be clear - the 89 percent is ALL teams - so you have to take the 40+ percent of faves.  Still, that means 49/60 percent remaining ATS dogs that cover also win their games.  It's less impressive than 89 percent, but depending on the %faves that cover, we're back at the high 70’s to 80+ percent outright wins for dogs that cover.   Hope that helps.  

 

I’m so bad with numbers. I’m still confused.

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

I’m so bad with numbers. I’m still confused.

100 games, 40x favorite covers, 60x dog covers.  

40x favorite covers ATS (for example, PHI -5.5 @ NE) - they obv win the game 100% of the time they cover as a favorites.   So that's 40/40.

60x dog covers ATS - if 89/100x, the team that covers the spread wins the game, it means 49/60 of the dogs win outright.   40 faves + 49 dogs = 89/100.   

That means for dogs, 49/60x they cover, they win - just around 80%.  

If you change the numbers, the percentages change a little bit, but not much.

Hope that helps. 

 

 

[stl4life07]

5 hours ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

Anyone have any "locks" they want to throw my way? Got a $100 bonus bet for using a DK referral match sign up so curious to see what everyone thinks compared to my thoughts.

Eagles ML against the Vikings. You know Cousins isnt good on Primetime. Not to mention the Vikings defense isnt good. So I can see the Eagles covering the spread but just to be safe they just straight up win so Ill say Eagles money line.

Another lock is the Niners over the Rams. As much as it pains me as a Rams fan to say this, the Niners have the Rams number in the regular season. The last time the Rams beat the Niners in the regular season it was in 2017. Now I find pleasure that the Rams did beat the Niners when it matter the most which was in the NFCCG but this is the regular season and I wont expect the Rams to beat the Niners until they actually do. They havent so its a lock to me the Niners beat the Rams. Again I think they can cover the spread but just to be safe just take the Niners money line. 

 

[Broncofan]

 

For ppl who can live bet - Den 2H live props worth considering.  Quite the decision by Riverboat Ron - there's no way to get fully used to altitude whether it's 2 vs 3 days, but cutting it to under 24 hours, generally not recommended for full go in first 24 hours... now, we're not talking medical risks (unless you sickle cell trait - why some players with that condition don't play, or play a lot less), but performance-wise, quite counter-intuitive. 

 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

 

Equanameous St. Brown - +2200 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U
 

ESB scored 1 TD last year when he started last 3 games or so.   Moore & Mooney aren’t great RZ threats.  ESB is 6’5.  

Tampa is def a team you throw against in RZ.  Maybe he’s inactive then it voids.  Took 0.4U / 0.1U now.

[SaveOurSonics]

Loving my futures on Pittman (O72.5), Ridley (O72.5), Nico (O600.5), Addison (O675.5), & DMontgomery (O5.5 TDs), albeit only after 1 week. 

Unfortunately not feeling NEARLY as good about my futures on Diontae (O81.5) & CKirk (O70.5). I actually still really like that number for Diontae if he can only miss 1 game (the %'s actually favor 1-2 games rather than 3+). 

 

Anyways, here are my favorite TEASER lines (6.5pt) of the week. Would love any input on these! 

• ATL +8.5 (vGB)
• LAC +4.5 (vTEN)
• SEA/DET O41 
• JAX +10.5 (vKC) 
• NYG +3 (@ARI) 
• SF -0.5 (@LAR) 
• WAS/DEN U46 

 

I really like banking on those three home teams to cover anywhere from a FG to a FG+TD+. I expect Seattle to bounce back against this Detroit defense & I expect the Lions to continue to exploit the same problems LA did. I really don't see NYG starting 0-2 with a matchup against Joshua Dobbs, 49ers have an impeccable track record against the Rams, & the Washington/Denver matchup squares up two really good defenses against two slow-paced offenses with mistake-prone QBs. 

Edited September 14, 2023 by SaveOurSonics

[SmittyBacall]

Reviewing the available TD props on B365, these stand out to me:

Justice Hill +300 - Scored twice from the RZ last week. Should see half the RB snaps. 

Tank Dell +450 - Noah Brown on IR. Dell to see majority of slot snaps.

Calvin Ridley +175 - Too juicy for #1 WR in what will likely be a shootout.

Tyjae Spears +550 - Played half the snaps last week. LAC weak on the ground. 

Donald Parham +600 - Parham has never steered us wrong at this value.