Weekly Bets Thread

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, stl4life07 said:

Some have said DK has a Jalen Hurts 1+ completion for +100. Some even have max $50. I saw max $25 too. Definitely take advantage of that if you can. 

that's-10000 on mine

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I considered smashing but Jefferson did struggle last year

To be fair, PHI had Bradberry, CGJ & Maddux to support Slay.   Maddux is the only guy of those 2, and he has to play the slot to be effective.   So it's a different situation.   The one way JJ gets limited is if the PHI DL wrecks the MIN OL.   With Bradbury out and maybe Darrisaw, that's certainly possible.   Darrisaw playing (and not being limited by injury) would be huge.

Edited September 14, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

SOS TNF Player Props:

AMattison U13.5 Carries (1.5u)

• I see this game going rather poorly for Minnesota, & Mattison was all but taken out of the game plan when MIN fell behind last week. 

DGoedert O4.5 Catches + O44.5 Yards (0.5u) 

• Great bounce back spot for Dallas.

DSwift O8.5 Carries + RPenny O6.5 Carries (0.5u)

• I’m leaning in on projected game script here. I see Philly milking a 2nd half lead & showing off their two offseason acquisitions. 

DGoedert O44.5 Yards + DGoedert O4.5 Catches + DSwift O37.5 Yards + JAddison O44.5 Yards + KCousins O0.5 INTs (0.25u)

• Long shot play. I really like all of these lines. $25 pays out $450. 
 

[Broncofan]

He's active, so DK has a ridiculous prop line for Rashad Penny O30.5 rush yds, 50+ yards +240, and 75+ yds +1200 DK (FD is +220 50+, but 80 is +480),  so I'm putting a half-stake 1U/0.5U/0.25U play.   Fingers crossed here - Penny doesn't play ST which is why he was inactive, but have to believe they'll use him here.   If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and I'm down 2.75U (no TD) but the potential payout is massive here for the prob IMO.

Edited September 14, 2023 by Broncofan

[N4L]

5 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

He's active, so DK has a ridiculous prop line for Rashad Penny O30.5 rush yds, 50+ yards +240, and 75+ yds +1200 DK (FD is +220 50+, but 80 is +480),  so I'm putting a half-stake 1U/0.5U/0.25U play.   Fingers crossed here - Penny doesn't play ST which is why he was inactive, but have to believe they'll use him here.   If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and I'm down 2.75U (no TD) but the potential payout is massive here for the prob IMO.

Came here to post this.

I also love Addison over 41 yards. 51+ yards, 71+ yards

AJB over 5.5 rec, over 71 yards 

[stl4life07]

2 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

that's-10000 on mine

Yeah same here for me. Some have it and others have the Jefferson and Brown boost. 

[11sanchez11]

Hockenson TD +260 lets go

also have the over so that helps

[SaveOurSonics]

5 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

SOS TNF Player Props:

AMattison U13.5 Carries (1.5u)

• I see this game going rather poorly for Minnesota, & Mattison was all but taken out of the game plan when MIN fell behind last week. 

DGoedert O4.5 Catches + O44.5 Yards (0.5u) 

• Great bounce back spot for Dallas.

DSwift O8.5 Carries + RPenny O6.5 Carries (0.5u)

• I’m leaning in on projected game script here. I see Philly milking a 2nd half lead & showing off their two offseason acquisitions. 

DGoedert O44.5 Yards + DGoedert O4.5 Catches + DSwift O37.5 Yards + JAddison O44.5 Yards + KCousins O0.5 INTs (0.25u)

• Long shot play. I really like all of these lines. $25 pays out $450. 
 

Lesson learned; don’t parlay player props (as if I haven’t learned that before 😂).

 

Had supreme confidence in Mattison U, Swift O, and Goedert O Catches and I ended up getting greedy. Would’ve been a big day had I played singles. 

That said, Mattison U13.5 Carries hits pretty easy for +1.25u. With -1.25u in losses, it’s another net zero day 🤦🏻‍♂️

[11sanchez11]

4 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said:

Hockenson TD +260 lets go

also have the over so that helps

Over hits

Also had a +250 sgp of Osborn 20+ rec yards, Mattison under 65 rush, over 39.5 points, MIN +14.5 that hit. 

And a +485 SGP of Hurts TD, Devonta 50+ rec, Eagles 1H ML, and Hurts 225 passing that missed because of the 225 passing.

Dumbest thing I did was I had MIN +6.5 and cashed out for half my bet at the start of their last drive because I thought the Eagles were winning by 14, not 13. I was wondering why they were letting me cash out for half when I thought it had no chance of hitting lol.

[SaveOurSonics]

TD props I like for this week. Would love to hear some more thoughts before I place any of these! 

Roschon Johnson +500 (I think he overtakes Herbert for RB1 this game) 

Tyler Lockett +190 (had 2 EZ targets last week, SEA should come out hungry on offense) 

Gus Edwards +190 (Hill took these carries last week, but I still expect Gus to be that guy [and so does Vegas])

Nick Chubb +120 (any time I can get Chubb at +EV here I like it) 

Odell Beckham +400 (led Ravens WRs in snaps last week; crazy number) 

Anthony Richardson +180 (Vegas hasn't quite adjusted to ARich's potential short TDs in a Steichen offense

Christian Kirk +200 (just feels like a bounce back spot for him, KC is strongest on the perimeter)

Jerick McKinnon +325 (led KC RBs in RZ snaps last week, the touches are coming)

Jake Ferguson +350 (huge target share last week, NYJ is pass funnel defense to TEs)  

Jimmy Graham +650 (Panthers strength is on the perimeter & I expect Jimmy to be a RZ specialist this year) 

Jordan Akins +1100 (Watson's former safety valve in HOU, I really like these long odds for a short RZ score)

 

[Broncofan]

OK, adding 2 more props, one early Sunday & MNF, and adding a TD prop for SUN as well.   Please note FD hasn't released a lot of game slates yet, so there's still value in some areas I'm waiting on for potential targets (LAC-TEN TD, BAL-CIN TD, etc).

SUN EARLY

NEW FRI AM - Sam Laporta O34.5 rec yds 2U - SEA remains vulnerable to TE's, and DET showed they are more than willing to get Laporta both playing a lot of snaps, and sending him targets.  The only reason I'm not going alt lines is because Laporta's ADOT wasn't high, he's in the short-areas, so he'd have to start getting more seam routes / vertical action to trust 50+/75+.  I think it's coming, but better to see evidence of this, let's stay at a very manageable # for now.

NEW FRI AM - Colby Parkinson +1100 FD / +10000 2+ DK 0.4/0.1U (if you have FD, consider waiting) - Parkinson has won the #2 TE job in SEA, and he's SEA's version of Donald Parham / Jody Fortson - matchup nightmare in the RZ.  He split time with Noah Fant, but Vegas odds treat Fant like the top guy, when in the RZ, Parkinson's usage last December started to be more of a timeshare.   Because these are FD odds, for longshots we often see a last hour rise, so I'm posting so you're aware, but you may want to wait (I took the DK as that won't change, but waiting on the 1-TD FD prop).

MNF

NEW FRI AM - Rasheed Shaheed O36.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ +180 & 75+ rec yds +500 0.5U - Posting this now so ppl can take advantage of what I think will be a rising line.   Without Jaycee Horn, CAR's pass D takes a fairly big hit.   Don't let the low pass yard totals fool you, ATL plays a mega run-first O, NO showed they're willing to go pass-heavy with their OL issues and talent - Shaheed is clearly their 2nd best WR (sorry Mike Thomas).    May only take 1 play to get the main line.  My #3 confidence play for the week. 

 

[adamq]

11 hours ago, Broncofan said:

He's active, so DK has a ridiculous prop line for Rashad Penny O30.5 rush yds, 50+ yards +240, and 75+ yds +1200 DK (FD is +220 50+, but 80 is +480),  so I'm putting a half-stake 1U/0.5U/0.25U play.   Fingers crossed here - Penny doesn't play ST which is why he was inactive, but have to believe they'll use him here.   If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and I'm down 2.75U (no TD) but the potential payout is massive here for the prob IMO.

I started him in a fantasy league with thr same thought. Ugh.

 

 

Halftime I got on and bet Osborn to score +650 and then wanted to use the "risk free" sgp promo on FD, so I went Osborn td/Swift td/over 43.5... +3850 🤙

[Rainmaker90]

Not a bad night. 
 

Winners 

minny 

JJ 

Addison

Hock

 

Losers 

AJ Brown yards and first TD

Goedart first TD

[SmittyBacall]

AJ Brown's line will be one to watch next week if it's in the low-mid sixties. Was clearly frustrated last night with lack of targets and Tampa's secondary is hurting at the moment.

[SaveOurSonics]

14 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

TD props I like for this week. Would love to hear some more thoughts before I place any of these! 

Roschon Johnson +500 (I think he overtakes Herbert for RB1 this game) 

Tyler Lockett +190 (had 2 EZ targets last week, SEA should come out hungry on offense) 

Gus Edwards +190 (Hill took these carries last week, but I still expect Gus to be that guy [and so does Vegas])

Nick Chubb +120 (any time I can get Chubb at +EV here I like it) 

Odell Beckham +400 (led Ravens WRs in snaps last week; crazy number) 

Anthony Richardson +180 (Vegas hasn't quite adjusted to ARich's potential short TDs in a Steichen offense

Christian Kirk +200 (just feels like a bounce back spot for him, KC is strongest on the perimeter)

Jerick McKinnon +325 (led KC RBs in RZ snaps last week, the touches are coming)

Jake Ferguson +350 (huge target share last week, NYJ is pass funnel defense to TEs)  

Jimmy Graham +650 (Panthers strength is on the perimeter & I expect Jimmy to be a RZ specialist this year) 

Jordan Akins +1100 (Watson's former safety valve in HOU, I really like these long odds for a short RZ score)

 

I needed the boys input & I didn't get any so I went ahead & hit Roschon (0.25u), Gus (0.5u), Odell (0.25u), Kirk (0.5u), & Ferguson (0.5u).