Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

19 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Tonight's Plays: 

Panthers U18.5 (-110) 

Jamaal Williams ATTD (+140) 

Chris Olave 70+ yards + TD + Saints Win (+600) 

Rashid Shaheed O2.5 catches + O39.5 ry + Demario Davis O7 combined tackles

MIA/NE O39 + Patriots +9.5 + CAR/NO U47

CAR/NO O33 + CAR +9.5 + Steelers +9.5

 

Profitable night but BOY do I need to take action on not doing prop parlays anymore. Cost me 2 wins here. I need to be reprimanded like Bart Simpson at this point & be forced to write it 100x on the chalkbboard. 

Jamaal "Free Money" Williams got hurt in the 1Q, only to watch backup Tony Jones Jr rush for 2 TDs. Awesome! 3rd injury to a player I bet on this week! 

Greed. Olave O70 hits. Saints Win hits. Olave misses the TD by centimeters. Potential massive payday stripped by replay review. That's showbiz baby. 

Shaheed hits both O2.5 & O39.5!!! Unfortunately I decided throwing in a O/U tackles prop for a LB was a good idea. Davis finished the game with 7 tackles. 

 

Thankfully the Teasers & one single play hit for me. +3.5u Monday. 

[Broncofan]

OK injury news that creates a great opportunity, and a lesson to check ALL the books before betting:

 

 

 

 

So that means Ronnie Bell +2000 / +15000 2+ Bodog/Bovada 0.25U / 0.05U Bodog/Bovada  is worth playing- this line is going to drop quickly.  I defer to @N4L, but couldn't really wait, so had to make the call.   From what I've seen, Juan Jennings is the slot in 11 formation, and Bell really assumes a boundary position.   He's a great run blocker which keeps him on the field.   So if Aiyuk is out, he'll be out there a fair amount IMO.   And with a short week, even though it's "just" pain tolerance, Aiyuk may sit.  Be careful, because like Cager, Bell will be active no matter if Aiyuk plays or sits - so there's no void bet bailout, which is why it's only 0.25U/0.05U for me.  And if it's +1000 or lower, I'd pass TBH, because even if Aiyuk sits, Bell is probably no better than a 10-15 percent chance to score, so I want that way above +1000 to take.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Wentz you dog you said:

Dang Hodgins and Campbell for me are +450

Honestly, I'd wait.   I have both as a +400 prob to score (25 percent chance).   You don't want fair odds, you want odds that are higher than the prob of scoring.   I want a 50% profit on the implied odds to fudge for 2 things - first, they're longshots, so they're going to miss, and most importantly, my assessment could be significantly off.   Taking plays that are widely over the assessed probability has worked for me, but I think it's a safe principle.   It's also why I don't take +100 type odds, because I don't think I'm nearly so good with higher-prob bets TD-wise.  

[BobbyPhil1781]

Bengals starting out at 2.5 point favorites stands out to me especially w/ Burrow's calf potentially being an issue. This could get ugly if he doesn't play. Rams are playing like the Rams of 2021 as well.

I went ahead and made an early parlay for this upcoming TNF games w/ a no-sweat bet. I did the 9ers 3-way no push for all four quarters. The Giants did have an emotional win in AZ this past week but Barkley will be out and the 9ers are rolling. I think this is an ugly, ugly game.

[N4L]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK injury news that creates a great opportunity, and a lesson to check ALL the books before betting:

 

 

 

 

So that means Ronnie Bell +2000 / +15000 2+ Bodog/Bovada 0.25U / 0.05U Bodog/Bovada  is worth playing- this line is going to drop quickly.  I defer to @N4L, but couldn't really wait, so had to make the call.   From what I've seen, Juan Jennings is the slot in 11 formation, and Bell really assumes a boundary position.   He's a great run blocker which keeps him on the field.   So if Aiyuk is out, he'll be out there a fair amount IMO.   And with a short week, even though it's "just" pain tolerance, Aiyuk may sit.  Be careful, because like Cager, Bell will be active no matter if Aiyuk plays or sits - so there's no void bet bailout, which is why it's only 0.25U/0.05U for me.  And if it's +1000 or lower, I'd pass TBH, because even if Aiyuk sits, Bell is probably no better than a 10-15 percent chance to score, so I want that way above +1000 to take.

Bell balled out in the preseason and really seemed like a guy who was a perfect fit for the offense in the "deebo role". I am curious to see how they utilize him, but he played a lot last week. Haven't turned on the tape yet but I think he did a good job from what I saw at the game. The coaching staff really likes him though. 

I think a better long shot TD bet is Ray Ray McCloud, who may take the "aiyuk role" of the deep threat. He is also our PR/KR so you could catch one there. 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, N4L said:

Bell balled out in the preseason and really seemed like a guy who was a perfect fit for the offense in the "deebo role". I am curious to see how they utilize him, but he played a lot last week. Haven't turned on the tape yet but I think he did a good job from what I saw at the game. The coaching staff really likes him though. 

I think a better long shot TD bet is Ray Ray McCloud, who may take the "aiyuk role" of the deep threat. He is also our PR/KR so you could catch one there. 

Well far be it from me to ignore the call from a fellow capper who knows his team.  It kinda helps that Ray-Ray McLeod is +1100 / +10000 2+ 0.3U/0.1U at DK too, so I have 1.6U already committed in risk, why not 0.3U/0.1U to make it clear 2U in TD props for TNF lol.

[SmittyBacall]

Eyeing Daniel Jones rushing yards (37.5) over + milestones. SFs pass rush will get Jones off his spot quick and provide rushing lanes. Game script dictates a lot of catch up. Even a statue like Stafford managed to uncharacteristically rush 4 times for 17 yards last week. 

[Broncofan]

There's one Sunday prop I would recommend taking now, because you know the line's going to drop further - Rasheed Shaheed +600 / +6500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK - I get it, GB's got a decent pass D, but all the focus is on Chris Olave, and that's why Shaheed has gotten behind D's 3x now (2x Week 1, 1x last week).  And yes, sneak preview, if they keep giving me sub-40 yard props, I'm going to have him on my player props list.    Get it now before it drops (the G-men WR line dropped within less than 30 mins lol).

Edited September 20, 2023 by Broncofan

[stl4life07]

CMC has scored a TD in 11 straight games. So anyone who might be parlaying or just straight betting need to add CMC scoring a TD to the card. He might even score two against the Giants. 

[Rainmaker90]

11 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Eyeing Daniel Jones rushing yards (37.5) over + milestones. SFs pass rush will get Jones off his spot quick and provide rushing lanes. Game script dictates a lot of catch up. Even a statue like Stafford managed to uncharacteristically rush 4 times for 17 yards last week. 

I’m in on this , also used my no sweat bet on him scoring the first TD 

[SmittyBacall]

Andrew Thomas ruled out for New York. The trench mismatch just got a hell of a lot bigger.

[thebestever6]

Shaheed is at 35.5 on bet365 you already know. Also put .8unit on Juwan Johnson anytime TD +400 DK.

[thebestever6]

16 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Andrew Thomas ruled out for New York. The trench mismatch just got a hell of a lot bigger.

you still like Jones rushing?

[SmittyBacall]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

you still like Jones rushing?

Yep. Still playing it.

But with this news, also going to add Nick Bosa over 0.5 sacks -160. He hasn’t had one through 2 games, he’s due. Will likely parlay with SF ML to get close to even odds. 

[N4L]

18 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Eyeing Daniel Jones rushing yards (37.5) over + milestones. SFs pass rush will get Jones off his spot quick and provide rushing lanes. Game script dictates a lot of catch up. Even a statue like Stafford managed to uncharacteristically rush 4 times for 17 yards last week. 

Came here to post this. The niners have struggled with running QBs in the past. It has been something that has plagued us for years. 

 

On 9/19/2023 at 12:35 PM, Broncofan said:

OK injury news that creates a great opportunity, and a lesson to check ALL the books before betting:

 

 

 

 

So that means Ronnie Bell +2000 / +15000 2+ Bodog/Bovada 0.25U / 0.05U Bodog/Bovada  is worth playing- this line is going to drop quickly.  I defer to @N4L, but couldn't really wait, so had to make the call.   From what I've seen, Juan Jennings is the slot in 11 formation, and Bell really assumes a boundary position.   He's a great run blocker which keeps him on the field.   So if Aiyuk is out, he'll be out there a fair amount IMO.   And with a short week, even though it's "just" pain tolerance, Aiyuk may sit.  Be careful, because like Cager, Bell will be active no matter if Aiyuk plays or sits - so there's no void bet bailout, which is why it's only 0.25U/0.05U for me.  And if it's +1000 or lower, I'd pass TBH, because even if Aiyuk sits, Bell is probably no better than a 10-15 percent chance to score, so I want that way above +1000 to take.

This is now +850. Good work.