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BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
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N4L

N4L

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, N4L said:

TNF - One thing to note is that it is super smoky here from wildfires very far north. I haven't gone outside or opened my windows in 2 days. Not good. I am not sure how this will affect the game but there is potential for it to slow things down a bit. There is a chance it will clear up if the wind shifts, but as of right now that does not look promising. 

SF team total over 27.5 - the giants defense has not played well. The niners offense is a buzz saw. They scored 20 points in the first quarter against the steelers and scored 30 last week after leaving a decent amount of points on the field. Large spread means the value isnt fantastic here, but I think this is a feasible number considering the cardinals scored 28 last week in the first 3 quarters. Most importantly, Kyle seems to genuinely trust Purdy, and it has made him significantly more aggressive with his play calling. They need 4 TDs and I think Kyle will look to be aggressive early to try and put the game out of reach. If there was a way to bet their first half team total, I would. 

Deebo over 55 rec yards, all the way up to 105 - He was more heavily featured last week after Aiyuk got banged up. He is yet to really break a big play. I think this is the week. With aiyuk banged up, cmc getting absurd usage a few days ago, with Kittle playing through a groin injury, I think Deebo will be the focal point of the offense. He is the type of player that keeps knocking on the door and eventually breaks it down. He could easily get 12 targets this week. I love this one. 

Cmc over 83 rush yards - 10 point home favorite. RB who gets nearly 100% of the touches and has the ability to break big runs. It just makes sense and I love betting the over on the rushing total of heavy favorites. 

Daniel Jones over 41 rush yards - niners have struggled with QBs rushing in the past. The pass rush is super aggressive and the LBs are used to cover the deep part of the field. The niners will have the lead so I think the giants will drop back to pass a lot and that will give him opportunities to scramble

49ers to score on their first drive, yes +111 - They have one of the most efficient offenses in the league and they have scored TDs on their first drive in both games this year. Purdy seems to come ready to play and does not need time to "settle in". That is actually one of the things I like most about him, he comes ready to play with a laser focus. 

 

I did a correlated parlay of the niners ML, niners over 27.5 team total, and the cmc rushing yards over at +200. I also did one with Elijah mitchell over 31 rush yards, niners ML, niners over 27.5 team total for +250 or something like that. I risked 25% on the Elijah Mitchell one. A lot of smart niners fans that I trust seem to think he should get some (10+) carries this week. I remain skeptical but the reasoning is sound, so we will make that bet. I dont think he gets a lot of carries if the niners 

Adding over 21 yards as Deebo's longest reception. I like that one. 

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stl4life07

stl4life07

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, N4L said:

Adding over 21 yards as Deebo's longest reception. I like that one. 

On DK there is a promo of Deebo getting a reception on the first drive. Its +120 but with the 50% boost its +180. Do you think Deebo will get a catch on the Niners first drive? I can see it but it seems to good to be true lol.

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SaveOurSonics

SaveOurSonics

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, N4L said:

Daniel Jones over 41 rush yards

I actually bet the Under here which I don't love considering you know your team better than I do. 

My assumption behind the play was that SF has incredibly fast LBs & the gameplan should include spying DJones as that is a main source of NYG's offensive production. SF shouldn't feel threatened by any of the Giants skill position players. 

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SaveOurSonics

SaveOurSonics

Posted
Posted (edited)

Here's all of my TEASERS for the week...


Chargers +7 / Chargers Vikings O47 / Bills ML (1.5u) 

- The Chargers line has since moved, so I already stole a point on that one. Really like that Vikings game to be a shootout between two desperate offenses. I expect the Commanders to put up a fight, but no way Bills fall 1-2 to them. 

Falcons +10 / Falcons Lions O39 / Seahawks +2 (1.5u) 

- Again, stole points on the Seahawks as it was sitting at -4 when I made the bet (it's up to -7 now). I love that Lions Over as their offense is efficient at home & they struggle to contain the run. Seahawks are my favorite Survivor pick of the week. 

49ers -3 / Vikings +8 / Seahawks +1 (1.5u)

- I saw Vikings moved to +1 dogs at home and had to hit this. Love 49ers tonight. Seahawks are my favorite Survivor pick of the week. 

Falcons +10 / Falcons Lions O39.5 / Steelers +9 (1.5u)

- Admittedly hit that Falcons game twice on accident between two different books. Oops. I think Steelers win outright, so love getting them +9 here. 

Chargers Vikings O47 / Texans Jaguars O37 / Rams Bengals U50.5 (1.5u) 

- Love this one. O/U on the Jags game is way too low as is (will probably hit it straight up) as Stroud & the Texans offense has looked great early. I think this one ends up in the 50's. Burrow may not play & with Cincy at home on primetime, their defense will be forced to step up. Whether Burrow plays or not, I don't see these teams hitting 50 points. 

Titans +10.5 / Dolphins ML / Cowboys -5.5 (1u)

- My lowest confidence play, but I liked it enough to play it. I already stole 0.5 points on the Titans line (now +3) & I think they can keep this close with or without Derrick Henry. Tyjae Spears has looked great. Dolphins should win, but there is some upset potential there with a desperate Denver team. Cowboys should cover that, but I'm also nervously awaiting the Dallas clunker game that's due, and it could come on the road against a more competitive than we thought Arizona team. 

Edited by SaveOurSonics
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BobbyPhil1781

BobbyPhil1781

Posted
Posted
On 9/19/2023 at 3:35 PM, Broncofan said:

OK injury news that creates a great opportunity, and a lesson to check ALL the books before betting:

 

 

 

 

So that means Ronnie Bell +2000 / +15000 2+ Bodog/Bovada 0.25U / 0.05U Bodog/Bovada  is worth playing- this line is going to drop quickly.  I defer to @N4L, but couldn't really wait, so had to make the call.   From what I've seen, Juan Jennings is the slot in 11 formation, and Bell really assumes a boundary position.   He's a great run blocker which keeps him on the field.   So if Aiyuk is out, he'll be out there a fair amount IMO.   And with a short week, even though it's "just" pain tolerance, Aiyuk may sit.  Be careful, because like Cager, Bell will be active no matter if Aiyuk plays or sits - so there's no void bet bailout, which is why it's only 0.25U/0.05U for me.  And if it's +1000 or lower, I'd pass TBH, because even if Aiyuk sits, Bell is probably no better than a 10-15 percent chance to score, so I want that way above +1000 to take.

Got in on this at +850 on FD. 

Nice call!!

Got him at 2 TDs as well at +6500.

One more of those and it's a huge night!

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N4L

N4L

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I actually bet the Under here which I don't love considering you know your team better than I do. 

My assumption behind the play was that SF has incredibly fast LBs & the gameplan should include spying DJones as that is a main source of NYG's offensive production. SF shouldn't feel threatened by any of the Giants skill position players. 

Your reasoning is sound. Looks to me like Jones had some running lanes but has been looking to throw the ball, but I think he will have opportunities to scramble considering they will need to throw a lot in the 2nd half. In hindsight, it was the wrong side though 

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