Broncofan Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 (edited) 1 Sun early TD play, 1 TD prop for SNF & 1 main player prop for MNF: NEW SAT AM: Antoine Green +1200 / +19000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - who? DET rookie WR; unlike Jameson Williams he’s been on the field. With Amon-Ra St. Brown doubtful and both Jahmyr Gibbs and Josh Reynolds added to the injury report - he actually becomes viable. Still not enough to back more than a half-stake play. Peyton Hendershot is out for SNF - so DAL uses 12 formation about half the snaps and he also got 2 RZ targets last week - so Luke Schoonmaker +1000 / +10000 2+ worth a 0.4U / 0.1U play. I also took Josh Jacobs o72.5 2U & 100+ +280 1U DK props for MNF. Self explanatory it’s the GB run D and he’s finally in full game shape. FD also shows again why they’re the one TD prop book you can wait on (unless there’s injury news that changes the player’s role) - Trent Sherfield goes from +800 to +950 and Khalil Shakir goes all the way up to +1500 (!!!). Every other book you take if it’s a good line because it’s likely only decreasing but FD is the one you wait on if it’s long odds. SUN slate adjusted 1 final time…lol. BOL! Edited October 7, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 Os playoffs? Ravens Steelers? This weekend, in this economy? Give me an Orioles & Ravens ML Parlay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 4 hours ago, Ray Reed said: Ravens ML Yeah, I am about the Ravens ML this weekend. Lamar had a phenomenal game last week. That defense is legit. Ravens are a sneaky bet to win the AFC. I took Lamar +1400 for MVP today. Dude is putting it all together. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 10 hours ago, N4L said: Yeah, I am about the Ravens ML this weekend. Lamar had a phenomenal game last week. That defense is legit. Ravens are a sneaky bet to win the AFC. I took Lamar +1400 for MVP today. Dude is putting it all together. Don’t forget to add my ORIOLES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 (edited) NEW ADDED SAT PM - Andrei Iosivas (initially +1500 on FD now +1200) +1400 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - With news that Tee Higgins is outbecomes worth a half-stake play. Edited October 7, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, Broncofan said: With news that Tee Higgins is out Andrew Iosivas (initially +1500 on FD now +1200) +1400 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U becomes worth a half-stake play. Love this call he's an athletic freak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 (edited) Zonovan Knight +900 / +13000 2+ on DK worth a 0.4U / 0.1U - Now with Jahmyr Gibbs doubtful Knoghy is worth a half-stake play. I already have him on Sports Interaction at +2000 (but most don’t have that book available) lol. Edited October 7, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 7 hours ago, Ray Reed said: Don’t forget to add my ORIOLES OH NO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Feels like I have a lot of square props this week. I dont like that, but these are just too juicy to pass up. David Montgomery over 71 rushing yards - The coaching staff believes in him. He is a professional RB, meaning he does the little things right. He churns first downs consistently. The lions like that because they want to be a ball control team. Carolina has given up 120+ on the ground 3/4 weeks. They had a long week. Some have been saying this is a trap game for them, but I really dont think that a trap game exists for the lions. They missed the playoffs by one game last year. They know the stakes each week. They are a hungry, physical team who likes to impose their will. Carolina will definitely stack the box, but I think their OL and monty are just too good and will have the volume to hit this number. Achane over 49.5 rushing yards - explosive player going against a bad defense. They will have the lead. They arent afraid to use him in short yardage situations. I am also going to parlay this with an ATTD. Brandon Aiyuk over 50 yards - Deebo is hurt. Kittle is hurt. Aiyuk is the main beneficiary of that. He is one of the best route runners in the league. He gets deep, intermediate, and short game work. Matchup nightmare for dallas, I dont think any of their corners can play him 1v1. They may shade coverage to him and try and take him out of the game, but I trust kyle to find ways to get him clean via motions etc. Ceedee lamb over 67 yards - the nines D is vulnerable from the slot. Oliver hasnt worked out as of yet. They are still figuring this out. I think the cowboys will see this and use formations/personnel packages to ensure he gets uncovered. The cardinals exploited this a few times last week. It is the one weak spot on the defense. Ceedee plays mostly in the slot. They will need to get him the ball to move the ball Kincaid over 3 rec/over 27 yards. The jags corners are really good. Buffalo will look to exploit the middle of the field. He is trending upward. shoutout to @BStanRamFan who posted this earlier in the week. Breece hall over 63 rush yards - The broncos are the perfect get right spot for him. He should break a few big gains. Ravens ML - the steelers offense is bad. The ravense defense is really freaking good. Lamar had maybe his best game as a pro to the point even browns fans (some of his biggest detractors) had to tip their cap to him last week. He is getting comfortable in the offense. KC -3 - I took them -5 thinking it would go to 7. The vikings are frauds. I dont understand why the line moved in this direction. Maybe I am a square, but give me mahomes with a competent defense over the team with no defense. They wont be able to blitz KC like they have blitzed other teams and get away with it. Reid will make them pay. Miami team total over 30 - I believe this is a flaw in how lines are made. No way around it for bookmakers but Miami is scoring 30 this week against this defense lol NE -1 - No Judon but that DL will still generate a lot of pressures. Saints OL is mid-tier. Carr isnt healthy and I am betting against an injured Carr facing a good pass rush. This is a good spot for the pats to rebound. HOU ML / HOU first half ML - Arthur smith runs a variation of the shanahan offense. DeMeco spent many years with Kyle in SF. I think Houston will be prepared for everything ATL throws at them. Both teams are extremely physical, so that does not give ATL an advantage there. HOU has the better QB. Ridder is terrible and it does not seem like it is going to get better this week. Houston is legit. Small worry that Heineke comes in and leads a second half comeback, so I am taking the HOU FH ML for 50% of the risk on the HOU ML 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 I have two parlays so far: 1 Montgomery, Hurts, CMC, and Achane ATTD 2 Miami O 29pts team total, Aiyuk 50+yds REC, Hall O59.5yds RUSH, Brown 50+yds REC, and Puka 50+yds REC I’ll probably throw another parlay picking games then maybe a few straight bets. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 The closing lines for the yardage props & TD props (except FD longshots - waiting is usually profitable there, unless it’s injury news that changes roles): PLAYER PROPS Kincaid - o3.5 catches is now -110 instead of +130 at DK (guessing B365 better but same situation) Swift - opened at 65.5 rush yds; now at 64.5 (only one that went down) Montgomery - opened at 67.5 rush yds; now 82.5 lol Hopkins - opened at 52.5 Rec yds; now 53.5 & close to going to 54.5. Shaheed - opened at 27.5 Rec yds; stayed same Hall - opened at 60.5 rush yds (59.5 -130), stayed same (Crazy imo) Conklin - opened at 27.5 Rec yds; stayed same Conner - opened at 58.5 rush yds; now at 62.5 Aiyuk - opened at 54.5 rec yds; now at 62.5 (wow) Jacobs - opened at 72.5 rush yds; stayed same (but also MNF) LONGSHOT TD Kincaid - went from +350 to +300 Shakir - went from +1500 to +1400 FD (opened at +900 early) Sherfield - stayed at +950 FD (opened at +750 early in week) Green - went from +1200 DK to +1100 Knight - went from +900 DK to +650 Graham - went from +750 FD to +650 (Juwan Johnson confirmed out) Shaheed - went from +450 FD to +430 Robinson - went from +600 FD to +550 Other TD props are late / SNF & MNF games But it goes pay to get in early unless it’s a FD super LONGSHOT TD play. Hopefully we turn closing line value (CLV) to actual value today. BOL! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wentz you dog you Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 11 hours ago, N4L said: Feels like I have a lot of square props this week. I dont like that, but these are just too juicy to pass up. David Montgomery over 71 rushing yards - The coaching staff believes in him. He is a professional RB, meaning he does the little things right. He churns first downs consistently. The lions like that because they want to be a ball control team. Carolina has given up 120+ on the ground 3/4 weeks. They had a long week. Some have been saying this is a trap game for them, but I really dont think that a trap game exists for the lions. They missed the playoffs by one game last year. They know the stakes each week. They are a hungry, physical team who likes to impose their will. Carolina will definitely stack the box, but I think their OL and monty are just too good and will have the volume to hit this number. Achane over 49.5 rushing yards - explosive player going against a bad defense. They will have the lead. They arent afraid to use him in short yardage situations. I am also going to parlay this with an ATTD. Brandon Aiyuk over 50 yards - Deebo is hurt. Kittle is hurt. Aiyuk is the main beneficiary of that. He is one of the best route runners in the league. He gets deep, intermediate, and short game work. Matchup nightmare for dallas, I dont think any of their corners can play him 1v1. They may shade coverage to him and try and take him out of the game, but I trust kyle to find ways to get him clean via motions etc. Ceedee lamb over 67 yards - the nines D is vulnerable from the slot. Oliver hasnt worked out as of yet. They are still figuring this out. I think the cowboys will see this and use formations/personnel packages to ensure he gets uncovered. The cardinals exploited this a few times last week. It is the one weak spot on the defense. Ceedee plays mostly in the slot. They will need to get him the ball to move the ball Kincaid over 3 rec/over 27 yards. The jags corners are really good. Buffalo will look to exploit the middle of the field. He is trending upward. shoutout to @BStanRamFan who posted this earlier in the week. Breece hall over 63 rush yards - The broncos are the perfect get right spot for him. He should break a few big gains. Ravens ML - the steelers offense is bad. The ravense defense is really freaking good. Lamar had maybe his best game as a pro to the point even browns fans (some of his biggest detractors) had to tip their cap to him last week. He is getting comfortable in the offense. KC -3 - I took them -5 thinking it would go to 7. The vikings are frauds. I dont understand why the line moved in this direction. Maybe I am a square, but give me mahomes with a competent defense over the team with no defense. They wont be able to blitz KC like they have blitzed other teams and get away with it. Reid will make them pay. Miami team total over 30 - I believe this is a flaw in how lines are made. No way around it for bookmakers but Miami is scoring 30 this week against this defense lol NE -1 - No Judon but that DL will still generate a lot of pressures. Saints OL is mid-tier. Carr isnt healthy and I am betting against an injured Carr facing a good pass rush. This is a good spot for the pats to rebound. HOU ML / HOU first half ML - Arthur smith runs a variation of the shanahan offense. DeMeco spent many years with Kyle in SF. I think Houston will be prepared for everything ATL throws at them. Both teams are extremely physical, so that does not give ATL an advantage there. HOU has the better QB. Ridder is terrible and it does not seem like it is going to get better this week. Houston is legit. Small worry that Heineke comes in and leads a second half comeback, so I am taking the HOU FH ML for 50% of the risk on the HOU ML I like a lot of these… Bet365 is really bad with the props I have noticed. I don’t even see Aiyuk on their player receiving milestones. Gonna have to switch to FD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 I really like Hall and Montgomery today. I went with straights and .1 laddered them both all the way to 120 just to have some fun. Will it happen? Likely not but is it worth a few bucks? I believe the possibility is there...... Assuming Saleh isn't lying that they're no longer limiting Hall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 After Milano got hurt I bet Engram to score. Tbh I deserved that drop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 8, 2023 Share Posted October 8, 2023 Fanduel has alt reception props out 👀 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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