stl4life07 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Just need two FGs. My hope is Dallas goes down kick a FG then the Chargers go down kick a FG. Let’s get it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Whelp that’s how my Week 6 ends on missing my parlay by one FG. Had plenty of chances in the redzone but McCarthy and Staley went for 4th downs instead of kicking the FG and then in the end I needed the Chargers to go down the field and kick and FG and Herbert threw the pick to end the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Tony Pollard going 15-30 should've been expected given how the Sunday slate went for me...Week 6 was the worst for me this year. Week 1 and 2 were flat, 3 thru 5 were epic though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 (edited) What a truly brutal weekend for me. It started with coming down with a nasty case of Covid on Friday night (still battling it today). I hardly got to watch football on Sunday. Slept pretty much the entire day. Didn't get a chance to hit the casino again for player props, so just the plays I posted previously. Imagine my surprise when I woke up & saw that both the 49ers & Eagles lost outright, effectively sinking every last penny I wagered this weekend. Ironically, my strategy of "focus on high-confidence plays" could not have come at a worse weekend, where my peripheral plays were actually much stronger (e.g. Lions). Edited October 17, 2023 by SaveOurSonics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MagicMT Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 Brutal weekend for me as well, like many of you. 9 teams parlay with spread fell short by 1 game, the 49ers one (took 49ers + 6.5 earlier in the week) and multiple player props falling short by a couple of yards... Sometimes I do random things and this weekend I bet 5u on a parlay of Cooper Kupp O 100yds + Joshua Dobbs running O 35yds so at least that salvaged an otherwise baaaad week of betting. May week 7 be luckier for all of us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Yea it was not a good weekend although the last 3 weeks were very good. Like most people that suffered it was at the hands of the Eagles and 49ers, and I took SF super early before the line got to 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 Parham came up big in the yards department, too bad Herbert was so inaccurate last night because Parham had a decent chance in the end zone TNF Saints v Jags with maybe Beathard at QB.... yikes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 8 hours ago, adamq said: Parham came up big in the yards department, too bad Herbert was so inaccurate last night because Parham had a decent chance in the end zone TNF Saints v Jags with maybe Beathard at QB.... yikes. Yea brutal timing to have a TNF game for us. If Trevor is 100% i think we have a great chance to beat Saints Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 (edited) On 10/17/2023 at 9:23 PM, adamq said: Parham came up big in the yards department, too bad Herbert was so inaccurate last night because Parham had a decent chance in the end zone TNF Saints v Jags with maybe Beathard at QB.... yikes. 18 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: Yea brutal timing to have a TNF game for us. If Trevor is 100% i think we have a great chance to beat Saints I'd be on the side that says T-Law plays. You don't put him in a brace and have him practice 2 days in a row if you're not leaning that way. So because of that, until the final injury report came out, there's been a LOT of waiting for a full set of props, and they're out. So here goes: WEEK 7 TNF ATS/ML JAX ML +130 2U (now +105) - I took the 2U play yesterday, once the report that T-Law practiced, for the reasons above. I'm pretty confident that will play out. Given the injuries NO has on their OL (3 T's are out), and Demario Davis not even practicing today, the edge really goes to JAX. Even at +105, I'd play it, but +130 yesterday was too good to pass up, my first 2U dog play this year. PLAYER PROPS Christian Kirk O51.5 rec yds, 80+ rec yds +300 1U & 100+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK - I said last week I'd avoid the Kirk matchup, with IND's best CB on him. Well, this week it's the reverse - Alontae Taylor is def the best matchup, so I'm going here. 100+ is probably a bridge too far, but man those alt lines are so tasty - I'm sure B365 is better. Alvin Kamara O4.5 recs +120 DK 2U - sigh, I hate that FD in ON doesn't offer alt lines, I'd be hitting 6,7,8 here. The NO OL is in shambles - Ryan Ramczyk is out, James Hurst is out, so both their starting T's are out, which means they have to put Trevor Penning back in as a starter, and their 4th T Landon Young is out, which means they've got their demoted starter & a 5th T on the depth chart at T. You know what that means - Kamara safety valve time. Chris Olave O59.5 rec yds 2U - NGL, I took this prop when it came out and took the 80/100 alt lines, and I have a ton of regret with the alt lines given how bad the OL injury news is. I still would have taken the 2U main line with #1 CB Tyson Campbell out, though, so I have to back this. Rasheed Shaheed O33.5 rec yds 2U - the Saints got 6 targets to Shaheed last week, and he delivered. In a game I expect them to get nothing done in the run game, while I expect Kamara to get 10+ targets, Olave to get 8+ and Michael Thomas to get 6-8, all Shaheed needs is 1 to get this. I also took the 60+ yard +320 alt line earlier in the week when it first came out, but I can't recommend it with the OL in shambles, and Derek Carr seeing ghosts. But I'll still stand on the 2U main play. NGL in that I have 2.5U of alt lines on Olave & Shaheed that I can't recommend to others - oh well, that's the flip side to getting value on early lines we're seeing here. So that's 9.5U in recommended player props. LONGSHOT TD Rasheed Shaheed +525 (+350 boosted by 50%) 0.8U DK / +4000 0.2U DK - because Campbell is out, that leaves the very real option Shaheed could hit the TD the same way last week - 1 deep ball. I've said you take Shaheed anytime he's +400 or more, won't stop now. Kendre Miller +900 / +12500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - this is a wild line, FD is at +400 and Bodog is at +350. DK obviously thinks Jamal Williams, being back at practice, means that Kendre is back to being the 3rd RB. Given that it's a short week and that it's a hammy, I'll take the chance Williams is out again, those are too good a value if Miller's the backup. Brenton Strange +1000 / +12500 2+ Bodog (+800 / +11000 2+ on DK) 0.4U / 0.1U - when Zay Jones is out, we see more 12 formation in the RZ rather than having Tim Jones or Jamal Agnew act as the 3rd WR. So that gives Strange some snaps to score. And esp as Honey Badger is the main S who'll focus on Evan Engram, I don't mind these wide odds on TD here. Jamal Agnew +750 FD (WAIT) / +11000 2+ DK 0.4U/0.1U - some weird glitchiness on DK, as Agnew is now +650 for ATTD, but he's +11000 2+ (rarely see that). As he's +750 on FD (but too high to offer the 2+ TD prop), I took DK's right away, and will wait to see if Agnew rises before TNF as we often see with +700 or higher odds players. The reason I'm taking is 2-fold - first and most importantly, Zay Jones is out. Secondly, Doug Pederson is fond in drawing up specific touches for Agnew, to try and leverage his home run return / open-field abilities. I'll take +750 if I must, but I think we can get to +900 or better with FD's usual MO where super-long odds guys rise in the last hour esp in prime-time. So that's 2U for JAX ML +130, 9.5U in player props I'd back now, and 2.5U in TD props, for 14U total. Because it's a low-scoring game, it's why there are so many half-stake TD props at high odds, and why there's only 1 alt line play (Kirk) I can recommend that I can play (although Kamara catches on B365 or FD if they offer it, I'd be all over 6-7-8). Let's turn things around with TNF for week 7 after a disastrous Week 6. BOL! ... Edited October 19, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 The Lions Ravens game is really standing out to me as peculiar. Is it the forecasted 20mph winds? O/U of 41 points feels really low. Ravens are favorites after struggling recently against a hot Lions team. Ravens Race10 is HEAVILY juiced (-190; which is nearly the same as the Seahawks vARI). Maybe I'm overly skeptical from this weekends 49ers/Eagles debaucheries, but this feels like some Vegas bait. I'll be avoiding the Lions this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 (edited) Some early Sunday plays are out on DK, a few I'm getting on right now because IMO they're going to take off WEEK 7 SUNDAY SLATE ATS/ML EARLY CLE -125 ML DK @ IND - I know Deshaun Watson's status is unclear, and I don't really think it matters. The IND D losing their top run stuffer really hurts against a top OL, and no one really can cover Amari Cooper. The CLE D is legit, against Gardner Minshew, seems unfair. Any given Sunday, but at these near pick 'em odds, I'll go CLE pretty easily. WAS -125 ML @ NY - I don't think I need to justify this a whole lot. WAS has their problems, but their DL vs. the NYG OL and Tyrod is a massive problem. And their run D is stifling. On the flip side, the NYG can't cover alpha WR's, so I'd expect a big day from Terry Mclaurin (EDIT: barring big wind, which might be an issue), and from the run game. DET +140 ML @ BAL - nothing against BAL, but the matchups just favor DET in some very important ways. I do think Zay Flowers will have a big day, but one of the few times BAL is matched in the trenches. LATE GB -110 ML @ DEN - giving DEN home-field advantage hasn't been a strong play for bettors. Yes, Jordan Love has been bad. Yes, the GB run D has been vulnerable. But the GB OL is very good, and we don't have a Maxx Crosby to disrupt that OL. Because KC's T's were bad, we generated more pressure, I don't know if we'll see the same on Sunday vs. GB's OL. And if we don't, only Justin Simmons and Patrick Surtain can cover. LAC +6 @ KC -125 - there's literally been 1 game in which LAC has lost to KC by 6 pts in the past 5 years. Thing is, these are essentially the same teams core-wise the past 3+ years, too. So while I don't feel confident enough to predict a LAC W, this is enough to take the points (paid -15 more to get the 0.5 bump). SNF/MNF Nothing out yet that intrigues me So that's 5U at stake so far. I want to see the final injury report and SNF weather reports on winds before committing to MIA@PHI on SNF & SF@MIN on MNF. I already used my first 0.4U free play for a JAX +130 ML / CLE ML / WAS ML / DET +140 ML / GB ML / LAC +6 / MIA +140 ML for +8600 YOLO 7-leg ML parley (so I can try to hedge that game anytime if PHI gets behind for + money). ... PLAYER PROPS EARLY Kyle Pitts O32.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +240 1U, 80+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK (ALT LINES ADDED FRI AM) - this number is just too low in a game where TAM's run D will give ATL some problems (Bijan will get his, but it's not a run funnel game at all) and ATL figures to be behind. NGL it's scary to have Desmond Ridder having to throw to Pitts, but at 33.5, you can take 2U there and hit the 50+ & 80+ alt lines for really good value. It's crazy that they treat him differently as a TE, the alt lines are so juiced for the same #'s compared to WR's. On the flip side.... Mike Evans O56.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +220 1U, 100+ rec yds 1U DK (ALT LINE ADDED FRI AM) - just to contrast, he's already O62.5 rec yds on FD. That's a massive discrepancy. Why am I taking Evans at 56.5 yds and not Chris Godwin at 60.5, knowing that ATL's top CB AJ Terrell has been awesome? Well, 2 reasons. First, Evans target share has remained consistently highest on the team even when facing top CB matchups (unlike JAX, where it seems they study the matchups a lot). Secondly, and more importantly, TAM has put Evans in the slot about 30x so far this season - and Terrell does NOT follow. So I feel safe enough at that number, and as Evans has gone for 81, 96, 75, 46 (in a game AB took 13 targets) and 110 in his last 3 years when Terrell was there, I feel like taking at least 1 alt line here for 80+. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Rhamondre Stevenson O43.5 rush yds 2U, 70+ rush yds alt line pending DK - so why would I go back to Rhamondre after barely getting the main line last week? Simple - the matchup is even better for the NE OL vs. BUF's suddenly vulnerable run D. Losing both their all-world ILB Matt Milano and their interior disruptor Daquon Jones is why the G-men had success with a patchwork OL. NE should be able to run for 100+ on BUF's D, even if they lose - and I like Rhamondre for 60-70 of them, so that's main line + 1 alt line. ... LATE Christian Watson O48.5 rec yds 2U , 70+ rec yds +200, 100+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK (ALT LINES ADDED FRI AM) - ARE. YOU. KIDDING. ME. Yes, PS2 is there. Yes, he might shadow Watson. But the reality is that Vance Joseph has not put PS2 on exclusive shadow coverage. And with Watson, you only need 1 play to hit - and he gets #1 WR volume when healthy, which I absolutely believe he is now. Easy alt line play incoming. Aaron Jones O50.5 rush yds 2U, 70+ rush yds +200 1U, 100+ rush yds +700 0.5U DK (ALT LINES ADDED FRI AM) - we've seen this happen in the CHI & WAS games - the RB's go nuts for 80+ or even 100+ yards, and the alpha WR's get 100+. He's back, and the number is just so low for what DEN D gives up (as opposed to Week 6 TNF, where Pacheco's number was high 70's - no value). Gotta take the 3.5U full play here along with Watson. Donald Parham O13.5 rec yds 2U , no alt lines out so far DK - I have 2-3 pet peeves in props & real-life usage. You all know about Rasheed Shaheed (and NO refusing to use him). Parham has to be my #2, with Gerald Everett looking washed, and LAC needing to have more pass game weapons with Mike Williams out. As long as it's below 15, esp with KC's D focusing on the WR's and letting TE's work, I'll keep going 2U, and I'll take the 25-30 yard alt line as well (a late pass breakup on a late read by Herbert is only reason he didn't have 40+ on TNF). Rashee Rice O34.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +280, 80+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK (ALT LINES ADDED FRI AM) - while everyone knows about Kelce, they should be paying attention to Rice vs. zone teams. Rice is absolutely thriving with zone coverage, and with Justin Watson out, I think he'll continue his 5+ target pace (21 in last 4 games), if not exceed it. I'll definitely want the 60+ yard alt line once it's out at this number. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Josh Dobbs O20.5 rush yds 2U, 40+ rush yds 1U DK +280 1U - this has hit 4 of 6 games for 40+, and with SEA's cover CB's back, and their pass rush but bad LB play, this is a strong play in a game I expect SEA to be winning. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Kenneth Walker O71.5 rush yds 2U, 100+ rush yds 1U +240 DK - this line opened up at 78.5 - WAY too high to take. But now that it's dropped to 71.5, I'm on board. I have to take the 100+ play but can't really go much higher, so it's a 3U play. SNF/MNF D'Andre Swift O59.5 rush yds 2U DK, alt lines pending - I know, he ran for 18 yards last week - but the NYJ run D is decent, and no Lane Johnson really hurt in-game adjustment wise. Johnson actually seems better than 50-50 to return, but more importantly, with the MIA DL, it's definitely run-vulnerable. No problem taking this line, and even will consider alt line goodness if it stays around this number. Just when I was going to hammer Zay Flowers & Terry Mclaurin props this week - the wind specter shows up with 20+ MPH forecasted for WAS@NYG, BUF@NE & DET@BAL. Sigh. Anyways, that's 29U in 10 player props for now (likely will take the Rhamondre 70+ rush yd prop once it's out), there's one guy I'm really interested in the ARI-SEA game but his player prop isn't out yet, likely to take 2-3U more if I can. I've also done my 2nd 0.4U free bet with Rhamondre O43.5 / Pitts O32.5 / Walker O71.5 / Parham O14.5 / Rice O36.5 / A-Jones O51.5 / C-Watson O52.5 for +7000 YOLO lol. ... LONGSHOT TD EARLY NEW ADDED FRI AM - Kyle Pitts +440 / +5000 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U - I know the TAM D has been really tough on TE's. But Pitts has played them before 2 years ago and thrived. He's just too good of a player to be at those #'s. Worth the 1U play. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Dynami Brown +1600 / +20000 2+ DK & Cole Turner +1600 / +17000 2+ DK both 0.4U / 0.1U each - I know NYG played WAS tough - but I think the WAS run D and pass rush, 2 areas that BUF D isn't great at, are going to massacre NYG. And in that scenario, I can see the backups getting more time - and we see both Turner & Brown get in RZ packages (at diff times, usually). We've seen both get targets near or in the EZ, so it's just worth it in a smash matchup spot to take a half-stake play each. LATE Donald Parham +450 / +7000 2+ Bodog 1.2U / 0.3U - I'm going to take the 0.8U +450 ATTD play and +7000 2+ 0.3U on Bodog right now, as I think this is the best I'll see - but I'll keep 0.4U in case DK offers a 50 percent 0.5U max bet boost - and add to the +390 line DK is offering. I'd love to get +535 for 1TD, but have to wait to see if I'm offered a 50% Sunday boost. Justyn Ross +1100 / +12000 2+ TD DK 0.4U / 0.1U (FRI AM: Now +750 wow) - hasn't panned out in the 3 games I've played it, but Justin Watson is now out, and that's the position that Ross takes over. So I do see more chances here. As Rashee Rice is +250 or less, this is the easier longshot play. Fingers crossed it hits, these are the best odds yet (which is kinda crazy, given that his role is likely only increasing now with Watson out and everyone else besides Rice in the WR room struggling). NEW ADDED FRI AM Colby Parkinson +700 FD / +7000 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - you know the drill, Parkinson is getting a regular EZ look or 2 a game, so have to keep playing at these crazy #'s. Geno Smith's inability to see the open guy hopefully gets easier vs. the Cards porous pass coverage. NEW ADDED FRI AM Trey McBride +900 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - on the flip side, McBride is taking over from Zach Ertz - so this Bodog (Bovada) line is INSANE, when you consider how vulnerable the SEA pass D is to TE's. ... SNF/MNF None out yet ... So that's 5U in ATS/ML plays, 29U in 10 player props (with Rhamondre Stevenson 80+ rush yd alt lines 1U and maybe Trey McBride rec yds & alt lines for 3U more left), and 6U in 7 TD plays, so 40U likely committed for SUN. NGL, that's a really scary amount to put on Sunday, but I do love the GB-DEN, SEA-ARI & ATL-TAM games for the props I'm on as the matchups / volume for the #'s are so juicy - and Rhamondre's NE run game matchup vs. BUF's depleted run D screams to take it. Gotta trust the evals, and hope injuries don't cripple gamescript like it did in Week 6. BOL! WEEK 7 TO TNF ATS/ML: 9-14-1, -3.1U (WK 7 TNF - 1-0, +2.6U) PLAYER PROPS: 44-46, +18.0U (WK 7 TNF, 2-2 +3.4U) LONGSHOT TD: 9-85, -7.4U (WK 7 TNF - 1-4, -1.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700) TOTAL - +7.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 TNF - 4.5U; 369U stake so far) Edited October 20, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 18, 2023 Share Posted October 18, 2023 (edited) 22 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: The Lions Ravens game is really standing out to me as peculiar. Is it the forecasted 20mph winds? O/U of 41 points feels really low. Ravens are favorites after struggling recently against a hot Lions team. Ravens Race10 is HEAVILY juiced (-190; which is nearly the same as the Seahawks vARI). Maybe I'm overly skeptical from this weekends 49ers/Eagles debaucheries, but this feels like some Vegas bait. I'll be avoiding the Lions this week. Yes, it's forecasted at 20-22MPH as sustained wind forecast right now for both the WAS @ NYG / BUF @ NE game and the DET @ BAL game. Bummer, as I was really on Zay Flowers and Terry Mclaurin props. Unfortunately, neither Jared Goff nor Sam Howell are good enough to be wind-proof so likely passing. The MIA@PHI game being at night, is projected at 16MPH sustained winds, which is right on the borderline - but that's important to track, given how much Tua is likely to be affected there. Edited October 18, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 Detroit +130 is very tempting. Yea Baltimore is at home but coming back from London is no joke and Detroit looks legit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BStanRamFan Posted October 19, 2023 Author Share Posted October 19, 2023 Isiah Pacheco over 14.5 receiving yards (-114) on FD 1.5U Jared Goff over 1.5 Passing TD (+120) on most books 1U Russell Wilson over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-110) on most books 1U Bijan Robinson over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-113) on most books 1U Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted October 19, 2023 Share Posted October 19, 2023 34 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said: Isiah Pacheco over 14.5 receiving yards (-114) on FD 1.5U Jared Goff over 1.5 Passing TD (+120) on most books 1U Russell Wilson over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-110) on most books 1U Bijan Robinson over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-113) on most books 1U Prop Holiday aka my GOAT 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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