SaveOurSonics Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 Decent TNF for me. Kamara O31.5 Receiving Etienne U67.5 Rushing Olave O62.5 Receiving Truly a bummer to not sweep the slate with 3 great reads. Olave not managing to surpass 60 yards on 15 targets is mind boggling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 20, 2023 Share Posted October 20, 2023 17 hours ago, Broncofan said: Kyle Pitts O32.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +240 1U, 80+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK (ALT LINES ADDED FRI AM) - this number is just too low in a game where TAM's run D will give ATL some problems (Bijan will get his, but it's not a run funnel game at all) and ATL figures to be behind. NGL it's scary to have Desmond Ridder having to throw to Pitts, but at 32.5, you can take 2U there and hit the 50+ & 80+ alt lines for really good value. It's crazy that they treat him differently as a TE, the alt lines are so juiced for the same #'s compared to WR's. On the flip side.... NEW ADDED FRI AM - Rhamondre Stevenson O42.5 rush yds 2U, 70+ rush yds alt line +340 1U DK - so why would I go back to Rhamondre after barely getting the main line last week? Simple - the matchup is even better for the NE OL vs. BUF's suddenly vulnerable run D. Losing both their all-world ILB Matt Milano and their interior disruptor Daquon Jones is why the G-men had success with a patchwork OL. NE should be able to run for 100+ on BUF's D, even if they lose - and I like Rhamondre for 60-70 of them, so that's main line + 1 alt line. Christian Watson O48.5 rec yds 2U , 70+ rec yds +200, 100+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK (ALT LINES ADDED FRI AM) - ARE. YOU. KIDDING. ME. Yes, PS2 is there. Yes, he might shadow Watson. But the reality is that Vance Joseph has not put PS2 on exclusive shadow coverage. And with Watson, you only need 1 play to hit - and he gets #1 WR volume when healthy, which I absolutely believe he is now. Easy alt line play incoming. Aaron Jones O50.5 rush yds 2U, 70+ rush yds +200 1U, 100+ rush yds +700 0.5U DK (ALT LINES ADDED FRI AM) - we've seen this happen in the CHI & WAS games - the RB's go nuts for 80+ or even 100+ yards, and the alpha WR's get 100+. He's back, and the number is just so low for what DEN D gives up (as opposed to Week 6 TNF, where Pacheco's number was high 70's - no value). Gotta take the 3.5U full play here along with Watson. Rashee Rice O34.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +280, 80+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK (ALT LINES ADDED FRI AM) - while everyone knows about Kelce, they should be paying attention to Rice vs. zone teams. Rice is absolutely thriving with zone coverage, and with Justin Watson out, I think he'll continue his 5+ target pace (21 in last 4 games), if not exceed it. I'll definitely want the 60+ yard alt line once it's out at this number. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Josh Dobbs O20.5 rush yds 2U, 40+ rush yds 1U DK +280 1U - this has hit 4 of 6 games for 40+, and with SEA's cover CB's back, and their pass rush but bad LB play, this is a strong play in a game I expect SEA to be winning. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Kenneth Walker O71.5 rush yds 2U, 100+ rush yds 1U +240 DK - this line opened up at 78.5 - WAY too high to take. But now that it's dropped to 71.5, I'm on board. I have to take the 100+ play but can't really go much higher, so it's a 3U play. SNF/MNF D'Andre Swift O59.5 rush yds 2U DK, alt lines pending Quite like these plays. I'll probably tail all of them (maybe not Rham and Walker...). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dash Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 Cornerback tackle props is something I want to play more this Sunday. I've noticed that to beefy up some of my parlays that corner tackle props are almost always priced very good and they usually hit. For example DK has in the BAL vs. Det game Jacobs over 2.5 tackles @ -145 ( he has hit this easily in 4 out of 5 games with numbers of 6,7,5, and 4) And Sutton over 2.5 tackles @ +100 ( has hit in 3 out of 5 games with numbers of 6,3, and 3 ) Linebacker and Safety props seem to be priced almost on the number of their averages and they have been more hit or miss for me. Lady Luck needs to stop playing hard to get this weekend. She knows she wants this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 With Marvin Jones out - I’m increasing Jameson Williams to 0.8U / 0.2U +700 FD / +8000 2+ TD Bodog from 0.4U / 0.1U Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 (edited) With Deebo Samuel out on MNF; it’s Ray-Ray Mcleod takes his snaps, not Ronnie Bell - the books all dropped Bell but DK didn’t; so Ray-Ray McLeod +800 DK / +10000 2+ Bodog worth a 0.4U/0.1U play given the value here. For Sunday's slate 1 final player prop I've been waiting forever on finally came out - NEW ADDED SAT PM - Trey McBride O20.5 rec yds 2U DK / 40+ rec yds +320 1U / 60+ rec yds +800 0.5U FD - NGL, this is NOT for the faint of heart. But McBride passed Zach Ertz for snaps last week, and turned his 6 targets into 5-62 last week, and Ertz is clearly showing no more explosion to his game. And who does McBride get, but the TE-funnel SEA pass D. Add in the ARI RB situation, and I have to take the 20.5 main line, and take a 1.5U alt line play on 40/60. This could absolutely blow up in my face, but it's also a 9.2U profit on a 3.5U play, with a clear volume increase, known connection & great matchup, and very likely have a pass-heavy gamescript to match. Gulp, but gotta trust the evals here. SUN slate post updated on page 360, that pretty much does it. Frankly, with 45U committed if you're going to tail, maybe go half-stake for proper bankroll management (but NGL I love the 4 games for great matchups - every player prop for Sunday daytime except Rhamondre falls there - ATL@TAM, GB@DEN, LAC@KC & ARI@SEA). BOL! Edited October 22, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 21, 2023 Share Posted October 21, 2023 Came here to mention McCloud, sadly it's dropped all the way to +480 on DK. I think its still worth a stab, what about you @N4L? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 Some lines that I loved on prize picks: Desmond Ridder 0209.5 passing Sam Howell O225.5 passing Jameson Williams O16.5 receiving Kendrick Bourne O36.5 receiving Darren Waller O36.5 receiving Josh Downs O39.5 receiving Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 On 10/20/2023 at 7:38 PM, SaveOurSonics said: Decent TNF for me. Kamara O31.5 Receiving Etienne U67.5 Rushing Olave O62.5 Receiving Truly a bummer to not sweep the slate with 3 great reads. Olave not managing to surpass 60 yards on 15 targets is mind boggling. Painful… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soggust Posted October 22, 2023 Share Posted October 22, 2023 (edited) @Broncofan SNF I assume is going to be a run-fest? I'm only asking bc FanDuel boost is for WRs, so I assume I should bet on the run game? I see you took Swift. Edited October 22, 2023 by Soggust Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Soggust said: @Broncofan SNF I assume is going to be a run-fest? I'm only asking bc FanDuel boost is for WRs, so I assume I should bet on the run game? I see you took Swift. On PHI's side I think it will be. I think MIA is going to throw it, but the lines are pretty juiced there. Sad that Julio was out there on 3rd and goal....and they ran a QB draw from the 9 lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Niners fans @N4L @adamq what ya think about lattering kittles catches tonight? They're juiced +140 for 5 and deebo is out should get a bigger target share. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: Niners fans @N4L @adamq what ya think about lattering kittles catches tonight? They're juiced +140 for 5 and deebo is out should get a bigger target share. I honestly couldn't say. You just never know how Shanny is going to use his guys in any given game. With Trent likely out, Kittle could stay in to block more than normal. Or he could have a 6/110/td kind of game.. Hopefully someone else has better insight than me 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, adamq said: I honestly couldn't say. You just never know how Shanny is going to use his guys in any given game. With Trent likely out, Kittle could stay in to block more than normal. Or he could have a 6/110/td kind of game.. Hopefully someone else has better insight than me 😂 I forgot trent is likely out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 (edited) On 10/21/2023 at 7:00 PM, adamq said: Came here to mention McCloud, sadly it's dropped all the way to +480 on DK. I think its still worth a stab, what about you @N4L? Fwiw McLeod is back up to +800 on DK. I’ll take the extra play now to 0.8U / 0.2U at those odds. Kittle is so hard to figure out because Trent is out. CMC touches are limited. Aiyuk in the 70’s. There isn’t a lot of meat on the bones. NGL if McLeod is set at 20 or less I might go there prop wise. And ladder it. A Q for @N4L & @adamq - how much zone vs press does SF D play? Addison is a pretty easy prop to figure out - press man gives him trouble. He thrives on zone matchups (much like Rashee Rice in KC). My leans for tonight are Addison Rec yes with alt lines vs. SF zone, Mattison Rec yds (increased usage with JJ injury) & Mcleod Rec yard props if he’s sub-20 yds. And the McLeod TD prop. But appreciate confirmation SF predominantly uses zone (missed last week and DAL / ARI didn’t hold my interest for very long lol). Edited October 23, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Yesterday I had three bets and won one. I had the TE TD parlay with Andrews and Kelce. I was so close to taking the DK promo to boost the odds for Andrews being the 1st TE to score TD in the early games but I didnt pull the trigger. I also was close to adding Goedart to my TE TD parlay but didnt pull the trigger. I took the Adams ATTD and he had a bad drop in the endzone which hurt me badly. I took the Seahawks -3, Walker 079.5 RUSH, and Walker ATTD. That didnt work out bc Walker didnt get a TD although he had 26 touches. That hurt me too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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