Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

With the trade deadline out of the way, only FD has yet to post Player Props and TD plays, so I have early TNF plays I've taken:

 

WEEK 9 TNF

ATS/ML 

TEN ML +140 - no, I'm not sold on Will Levis.   And yes, trading Kevin Byard hurts.   But the Matt Canada O is now going to have Kenny Pickett play on a short week through a bad rib injury?   Sorry, I have to back the better-coached team (nothing against Mike Tomlin, but Matt Canada automatically gives the edge to TEN).   I'm following the "back or avoid TEN as dogs" rule under Mike Vrabel's that's served me well here.

PLAYER PROPS

Diontae Johnson O57.5 yds 2U DK (already up to 58.5), 80+ rec yds +220 1U, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - this is simple, DJ has gone back to soaking up targets no matter who the QB is (on the flip side, George Pickens ran go routes 63+ percent of the time - lulz Matt Canada).

Chigoziem Okonkwo O25.5 rec yds 2U, 50 rec yds+ +350 1U, 70+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK -  this is definitely where I take this prop with Will Levis in there over Ryan Tannehill.  Okonkwo had 26 rec yds last week, but it misses a big 25+ yard drop, and it also doesn't account for 2 TE screens where ATL's D stopped it dead in its tracks, but had big potential.    The additional reason I love this play is that PIT all-world S Minkah Fitzpatrick is out, so that opens up the TE alleys. 

Why don't I hammer Deandre Hopkins?   Well, 1 simple reason - Joey Porter Jr. has been promoted by the PIT DC to start over Levi Wallace - and he's excellent.   I don't know if he shadows, but whoever he plays, it's a much tougher matchup.   And while Will Levis' #'s are shiny, they cover up for the fact he missed a lot of throws (close to 38% were not catchable according to FO & other sites, and it matches the game film I've seen).   As for TEN rush props, I'm waiting to see if Cameron Heyward gets activated off the IR - that's a massive reason for PIT's struggles in stopping the run.

LONGSHOT TD 

Diontae Johnson +260 / +2500 2+ 1.2U / 0.3U Bodog - I'm going with the rare 1.5U sub +400 play, because he's literally at sub +200 so far everywhere else, and the TEN secondary is so vulnerable.  I know DJ hasn't scored in almost 2 seasons, but it's like Jakobi Meyers - it's not really due to his ability, just one of those flukes.  If there's a week it breaks, and possibly for 2+, this one is a great chance, ESP as I don't expect the PIT run game to have much, if any success.   If you can't get this number yet, wait for Bodog, or maybe consider the 50% boost on DK that's often offered. 

Chigoziem Okonkwo +500 / +6000 0.8U / 0.2U DK - with no Minkah Fitzpatrick, this is clearly the biggest mismatch.  I definitely want to take a shot here.

 

Will Levis +700 (now +650) / +7500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - just like how Ryan Tannehill had RPO TD runs, Levis is capable of the same.  Given the focus on Derrick Henry, seems worth a shot at these odds.   He's +600 / +7000 2+ on FD, which seems OK as well for a half-stake play.

Darnell Washington +1200 / +16000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - he's the Georgia monster who's been out there in 12 formation with Cam Heyward, but Matt Canada hasn't called any pass plays his way.   That's the main reason his odds are so high, but with a 40% snap share, and the skills we saw in college, I'm ok with the half-stake play at these odds.

That's it, with 1U on TEN ML, 7U on Diontae Johnson & Chig Okonkwo rec yd props, and 4U on TD props (1.5U on Diontae to break his long TD-less streak).  So that's 12U on a slugfest like TEN-PIT seems more than enough.  Maybe if Cameron Heyward is activated, I may consider a 2U additional play, but that's enough for now.  BOL!

 

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

@Broncofan hell of a lineup I was having trouble evaluating a card with over under of 37.5 but you did a hell of a job I like it.

Edited November 1, 2023 by thebestever6

[thebestever6]

Raiders fired McDaniels and are leaning going to O'Connell and are still 2.5 point favorites lol.

[Broncofan]

OK there's one game I'd lock up right now - MIA ML +130.    I'm not basing this on last week, my initial lean was KC winning, and avoiding this matchup.

But then I saw this:

 

To be clear, this decision is incredibly dumb - KC is arriving on the redeye Fri AM, while MIA arrived yesterday AM.    I’m definitely backing MIA ML +130 2U.  

BUF did the same vs. JAX, and ATL did the same vs. JAX, and TEN did the same vs. BAL.   BAL & JAX both left Monday and arrived Tues AM, while ATL/BUF/TEN left on Thursday, and arrived on Friday.    This follows a very similar pattern from prior years.  The performance drop with that much travel is well-documented, and the edge with teams who travel early vs. late is marked with UK games. 

 

If there was a big talent difference, I'd only factor it into an ATS bet, but here, with such closely matched teams, and MIA getting more guys back, I have to back the Fish ML right now.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Won that Futures bet on McDaniels 1st Coach Fired ✅🤑

[Broncofan]

BTW all you B365 & Bodog bettors there's 2 great value play right now for Sunday's Germany game - Julian Hill ATTD +2200 on B365,  Noah Gray +1100 / +12500 2+ 0.8U/0.2U on Bodog.   Hill's +1000 & 12500+ 2+ on DK and I took 0.4U/0.1U there, he's only +500 on Bodog (which is about right IMO).   Gray is +600 / +7000 2+ on DK, so Bodog has great value. 

Why Julian Hil?   Well Durham Smythe is limited in practice, and coach McD already acknowledged he's not sure if Smythe will play.  Here's the thing - Hill already is playing 40+ percent of the snaps the last 2 weeks with Smythe.   So he's got a floor even if Smythe is in there.    But with Smythe out, OMG even +1000 is value for half-stake.   So if you wanted to go 0.8U/0.2U with +2200, I couldn't blame you (but realize it's still far less likely he scores, why I go half-stake given his low usage so far - just that his odds should be more like +500-600, not +2200).

 

 

So @thebestever6, @SmittyBacall, @adamq @JonStark @NYRaider @SaveOurSonics @JaguarCrazy2832 & the rest of you who have B365, and ignore me if you don't) - if you usually go with the TD longshots, grab Hill now, you can't get better value (if you don't, then now's not the time to start lol).   Those of you who have Bodog & play the longshot TD market regularly ( @N4L?) - grab Noah Gray now.

Durham Smythe did travel with the team to Germany, so he could very well play, but if you do the longshot TD's regularly, locking in +2200 at half-stake is a no-brainer for Julian Hill (and once again, I really miss B365).   I don't see Gray getting better odds than +1100 (he's +600 on DK) so I'm locking that in now.  BOL! 

Edited November 1, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

20 hours ago, Broncofan said:

With the trade deadline out of the way, only FD has yet to post Player Props and TD plays, so I have early TNF plays I've taken:

 

WEEK 9 TNF

ATS/ML 

TEN ML +140 - no, I'm not sold on Will Levis.   And yes, trading Kevin Byard hurts.   But the Matt Canada O is now going to have Kenny Pickett play on a short week through a bad rib injury?   Sorry, I have to back the better-coached team (nothing against Mike Tomlin, but Matt Canada automatically gives the edge to TEN).   I'm following the "back or avoid TEN as dogs" rule under Mike Vrabel's that's served me well here.

PLAYER PROPS

Diontae Johnson O57.5 yds 2U DK (already up to 58.5), 80+ rec yds +220 1U, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - this is simple, DJ has gone back to soaking up targets no matter who the QB is (on the flip side, George Pickens ran go routes 63+ percent of the time - lulz Matt Canada).

Chigoziem Okonkwo O25.5 rec yds 2U, 50 rec yds+ +350 1U, 70+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK -  this is definitely where I take this prop with Will Levis in there over Ryan Tannehill.  Okonkwo had 26 rec yds last week, but it misses a big 25+ yard drop, and it also doesn't account for 2 TE screens where ATL's D stopped it dead in its tracks, but had big potential.    The additional reason I love this play is that PIT all-world S Minkah Fitzpatrick is out, so that opens up the TE alleys. 

Why don't I hammer Deandre Hopkins?   Well, 1 simple reason - Joey Porter Jr. has been promoted by the PIT DC to start over Levi Wallace - and he's excellent.   I don't know if he shadows, but whoever he plays, it's a much tougher matchup.   And while Will Levis' #'s are shiny, they cover up for the fact he missed a lot of throws (close to 38% were not catchable according to FO & other sites, and it matches the game film I've seen).   As for TEN rush props, I'm waiting to see if Cameron Heyward gets activated off the IR - that's a massive reason for PIT's struggles in stopping the run.

LONGSHOT TD 

Diontae Johnson +260 / +2500 2+ 1.2U / 0.3U Bodog - I'm going with the rare 1.5U sub +400 play, because he's literally at sub +200 so far everywhere else, and the TEN secondary is so vulnerable.  I know DJ hasn't scored in almost 2 seasons, but it's like Jakobi Meyers - it's not really due to his ability, just one of those flukes.  If there's a week it breaks, and possibly for 2+, this one is a great chance, ESP as I don't expect the PIT run game to have much, if any success.   If you can't get this number yet, wait for Bodog, or maybe consider the 50% boost on DK that's often offered. 

Chigoziem Okonkwo +500 / +6000 0.8U / 0.2U DK - with no Minkah Fitzpatrick, this is clearly the biggest mismatch.  I definitely want to take a shot here.

 

Will Levis +700 (now +650) / +7500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - just like how Ryan Tannehill had RPO TD runs, Levis is capable of the same.  Given the focus on Derrick Henry, seems worth a shot at these odds.   He's +600 / +7000 2+ on FD, which seems OK as well for a half-stake play.

Darnell Washington +1200 / +16000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - he's the Georgia monster who's been out there in 12 formation with Cam Heyward, but Matt Canada hasn't called any pass plays his way.   That's the main reason his odds are so high, but with a 40% snap share, and the skills we saw in college, I'm ok with the half-stake play at these odds.

That's it, with 1U on TEN ML, 7U on Diontae Johnson & Chig Okonkwo rec yd props, and 4U on TD props (1.5U on Diontae to break his long TD-less streak).  So that's 12U on a slugfest like TEN-PIT seems more than enough.  Maybe if Cameron Heyward is activated, I may consider a 2U additional play, but that's enough for now.  BOL!

 

 

BTW, if ppl like the Diontae Johnson TD play but don’t have Bovada / Bodog, there's a 50 percent TNF boost offer on DK - and so you could boost DJ's +200 odds to +300 there (but only for me a max 1U bet, so it's pretty similar to to the 1.2U +260 Bodog).  

Edited November 1, 2023 by Broncofan

[JaguarCrazy2832]

17 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Won that Futures bet on McDaniels 1st Coach Fired ✅🤑

I didnt expect it at all given the Raiders cash situation 

[N4L]

On 10/31/2023 at 2:39 PM, Broncofan said:

Diontae Johnson O57.5 yds 2U DK (already up to 58.5), 80+ rec yds +220 1U, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - this is simple, DJ has gone back to soaking up targets no matter who the QB is (on the flip side, George Pickens ran go routes 63+ percent of the time - lulz Matt Canada).

Chigoziem Okonkwo O25.5 rec yds 2U, 50 rec yds+ +350 1U, 70+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK -  this is definitely where I take this prop with Will Levis in there over Ryan Tannehill.  Okonkwo had 26 rec yds last week, but it misses a big 25+ yard drop, and it also doesn't account for 2 TE screens where ATL's D stopped it dead in its tracks, but had big potential.    The additional reason I love this play is that PIT all-world S Minkah Fitzpatrick is out, so that opens up the TE alleys. 

Love both of these. I am playing both guys receptions overs as well (5.5 and 2.5 respectively). I absolutely love Chig tonight as the steelers will surely step up to stop the run and cover the deep part of the field, that should leave the middle open for Chig. If the steelers blitz and try and get the ball out of levis' hands quickly, then that plays into chig as well. 

Also adding in Treylon Burks over 25. It's a short number. He is a great deep threat and Levis has a great deep arm. Treylon should see plenty of 1v1 tonight. I am playing the alt lines of 65 and 75 yards as well because he really could get home in just a few catches. I also love the over 15.5 for his longest reception. 

[Broncofan]

Some Sunday props are out, and definitely about 8 props and 3-4 TD props worth taking (some that I've already listed):

WEEK 9 SUNDAY SLATE

ATS/ML

EARLY

MIA ML +130 @ KC (Germany) 2U - I've already covered this one, the travel gap between 2 evenly matched teams is a huge diff here. 

MIN ML +170 @ ATL - yes, Taylor Heinecke is an upgrade on Desmond Ridder.   And no, Jaren Hall isn't this incredible hidden gem.  But ATL losing Grady Jarrett and not getting an EDGE is a massive blow to the ATL D, and Brian Flores has the MIN D humming.   This is a 50-50 matchup, and I'm getting +170?   Have to take this.  
 

LATE

Nothing yet 

SNF

CIN ML -120 vs. BUF - CIN's clicking, and they get to face Josh Allen at home.   This is nothing against BUF, because IMO these are 2 top 5 NFL teams facing each other.   The big diff with CIN now is that Joe Burrow is 100 percent, and the D is suddenly surging up with with DC Lou Anarumo up to his tricks.  
 

That's 4U on ATS/ML plays so far.

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Rasheed Shaheed O28.5 rec yds 2U DK, 60+ Rec yds +300 1U, 80+ Rec yds 0.5U FD - against the CHI D, speed is what hurts them the most, so I'll go here easily and pray NO OC Carmichael & Derek Carr keep realizing they need to feed him more.

Mike Evans O52.5 rec yds 2U  (FRI: now 54.5) , 80+ rec yds +260 1U, 100+ rec yds +550 0.5U & 120+ rec yds +1200 0.5U DK - still the alpha guy, and HOU is still vulnerable to top WR's.    They don't get a lot of pressure on QB, and that's how Baker Mayfield thrives.   EDIT FRI AM:  I'm taking the rare 4U play with 3 alt lines, as the ceiling here is massive.

Mark Andrews O50.5 rec yds 2U (FRI: now 49.5), 70+ rec yds +200, 100+ rec yds +650 0.5U DK - the SEA D still is TE vulnerable (David Njoku the latest to put up a big day), got to back the BAL target hog that Lamar relies on.

Alvin Kamara O4.5 receptions +120 2U DK (B365 / US FD - take 6+/7+ rec ladder) - I don't even think I need to explain this one.    CHI's D against RB's is soft, and remember they like to give up the short stuff and keep the ball in front of them - that's Kamara all day (Shaheed only needs 1 chunk play to break O28.5, so the dichtomy works IMO).   B365 bettors, you know what to do.

Demario Douglas O41.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ rec yds +320 1U, 100+ rec yds +1200 0.5U DK - the only talented WR left (sorry Juju isn't that guy anymore).   WAS pass D is so vulnerable got to take the 70+ line as well.   EDIT FRI AM:  The alt line for 100+ is likely a donation, but WAS is really that bad, so it's a YOLO 3.5U play. 

Christian Watson O42.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ rec yds +300 1U, 100 rec yds +900 0.5U DK - I know Jordan Love is scary.  But LAR is 30th against WR1's this year, and Watson is still averaging 6+ targets a game, and almost 15 air yards per target.    If he can't do it here, then I worry for ROS, but this has to be one of the top smash spots for him.    It's so good setup wise that I'm going to use the 2nd 0.4U bet credit on him being top weekend yardage scorer at 110-1. 

NEW ADDED FRI PM Kyle Pitts O41.5 rec yds, 70+ rec yds, 100+ rec yds +1000 0.5U DK - the 100+ is probably a donation, but those are ridiculous odds with a functional QB now there.   Pitts is just a matchup nightmare, but he's been hamstrung by Arthur Smith's scheme and by Desmond Ridder's uncatcheable throw rate (2nd highest in league).    Taylor Heinecke isn't good by any means, but he's serviceable fantasy-wise.   

NEW ADDED FRI PM Jahan Dotson O42.5 rec yds 2U FD, 70+ rec yds +270 1U FD, 100+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK - with new Curtis Samuel is out, that activates one of my 2023 learned rules - never play Jahan Dotson unless Samuel is out.  When you add in that NE's pass D actively tries to take out the #1 weapon and lets the others get more work, Dotson's props become more appealing with Terry Mclaurin drawing their attention.

LATE

Jonathan Taylor O64.5 rush yds 2U (FRI: now 67.5), 90+ rush yds +250 1U, 120+ rush yds +800 0.5U DK - yes, Zach Moss could steal touches.  But as we saw last week vs. a really good NO D, he may only need 12-15 carries to get into the 100+ range.   Too good value to pass up here. 

SNF

Dalton Kincaid O37.5 rec yds (FRI: now 38.5), 60+ rec yds +260, 80+ rec yds 1U +600 0.5U DK - while Anarumo has the CIN D playing a lot better, one area they're still vulnerable to - the TE, they're 30th in DVOA.    With no Dawson Knox, this is a smash spot, full 3.5U play.

 

MNF

Breece Hall O56.5 rush yds 2U, 80+ rush yds +220 1U, 100+ rush yds +550 0.5U; O16.5 rec yds 2U each DK, alt lines pending (and will take 40+ rec yds, 2 rush lines)  - LAC D is so soft against the run, and RB pass yards (Roschon Johnson O11.5 failed but the 3 RB's combined went 8-40+...sigh).    The rare 6-7U play is coming up, taking both sides of rush & rec yds.   PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE don't get hurt. 

Tyler Conklin O26.5 rec yds 2U DK, 50+ rec yds +320, 70+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK - LAC's TE pass coverage is also awful, so have to take the 50+ alt line play here once it's out.

That's 34U I'm likely committing to with 10 SUN player props.   I've also taken the 0.4U free bet credit on Christian Watson as top Sunday yardage receiver at 110-1 YOLO, and the 2nd 0.4U free bet credit on Evans O54.5 / Andrews O49.5 / Shaheed O28.5 / Douglas O41.5 / Watson O41.5 rec yds / J-Taylor O67.5 rush yds / Kincaid O37.5 /  Conklin O26.5 for a free 0.4U +18000 8-leg YOLO bet credit play. 

 

LONGSHOT TD 

EARLY

Noah Gray +1100 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - I covered this before, nothing different in the reasoning.

Julian Hill +1000 / +12500 2+ DK (now +750; opened +2200 originally on B365; now +800) 0.4U / 0.1U - same deal with Hill, the books wised up and dropped the odds; he's now +800 on B365 & +750 on DK.

Colby Parkinson +1000 / +15000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U -  you know the deal; Parkinson didn't get the same looks vs. CLE, but that's the #1 TE D (and incidentally why I passed on him last week, and am passing on any Trey McBride props too).   BAL's more vulnerable, so it's back to the well here, he keeps getting snaps & looks, at +1000 I have to take the shot again.

Noah Brown +600 / +1000 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - Robert Woods is expected to miss 1-2 more games, you know I have to take the shot here, Brown's RZ snaps & looks make this a full stake play.

Jaren Hall +700 / +1000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - what's crazy about Bodog is they have Josh Dobbs at +400.   Hall is a running QB and MIN's run game struggles, so a rush TD is not out of the question.  Worth the half-stake play. 

Pharoah Brown +1900 FD 0.9U / +12500 2+ 0.1U Bodog - this is the 3rd TE in NE - but he's getting 40+ percent of te snaps.    Mike Gesicki's stock has plummeted, and Brown's taken up the slack.  With so many NE WR's out (Bourne & Parker), not only does Demario Douglas get top billing as WR, but IMO 12 formation RZ becomes super viable.   And at that number, I have to take a shot at half-stake. Because the 2-TD prop isn't great relative to 1-TD value, I'm going 0.9U FD & 0.1U Bodog.

NEW ADDED FRI AM Darryton Evans +1000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - I am sad in taking this play, but I can't deny how much the OC likes Evans as a pass catcher.   Against the NO D that is a viable spot to target, as the WR coverage is excellent (and so is the TE).   Still it's Tyler Bagent so I can't really push more than a half-stake play.

NEW ADDED FRI PM Khadarel Hodge +800 FD 0.4U / +6000 2+ 0.1U TheScore - with no Drake London, Pitts gets a boost, but so do the rest of the WR's.   Hodge gets as many looks as Van Jefferson & Mack Hollins but he's priced 2-3x longer than either.   So worth the half-stake play.

NEW ADDED SAT AM - Juwan Johnson +440 TheScore / +4000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - no explanation needed.  Actually got 2 EZ looks last week first game Back.  As long as RZ struggles continue he’s getting more looks.

…

NEW ADDED SUN AM  MyCole Pruitt is +1400 Bodog / +25000 2+ TD DK 0.4U / 0.1U - he’s +900 -  +1200  everywhere else but basically this is a ‘Arthur Smith says FU’ to everyone else and all Kyle Pitts fantasy managers because he’s a grade A d-bag.  Pruitt did get an EZ target last week.  Yolo play.

 

LATE

Tommy Tremble +1000 FD/Bodog / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - Hayden Hurst is splitting snaps and reps with Tremble, so at these odds, I have to go with the half-stake play.

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Lawrence Cager +1200 TheScore 0.4U / ?? 2-TD 0.1U (and maybe doubled to full-stake) - Darren Waller's on IR, and with Danny Jones and very possibly LT Andrew Thomas back, that gives the G-men a functional pass attack.   If both are back, I'll likely double this, especially if the DK/FD/Bodog books offer a better line - Daniel Bellinger is the starter now, but much like Parham vs. Everett, Cager's the much more dangerous RZ weapon. 

MNF

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Donald Parham +500 Score (+370 DK) 0.8U / +4500 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - too good to pass up, even with Everett back, we know that Parham is the RZ mismatch they scheme for.

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Tyler Conklin +500 / +6500 2+ FD 0.4U/0.1U for now (likely doubling) - LAC's pass D is def still a problem, and at these odds, have to take the half-stake play.  Because it's FD, there's a chance with prime-time games these odds will increase, so I'll wait until Monday evening to see if I double this.  
 

So that's 9U with 13 TD player props for SUN so far.    With so many games without DK or FD props, that's enough for now.   Right now, I'm likely at 47U  in SUN slate plays.   Enough for now for sure...lol.   BOL!

 

WEEK 9 TNF

ATS/ML: 14-20-2, -3.2U (WK 9 TNF - 0-1, -1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 65-61, +55.0U  (WK 9 TNF - 2-0, +4.2U)

LONGSHOT TD: 13-115 - -18.6U  (WK 9 TNF - 1-3, +0.4U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300)

TOTAL - +33.2U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; WK 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 TNF - +3.6U; 527U stake so far)

Edited November 5, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Can't get a good read on tonight's game so I'm staying away from a ATS / O/U perspective. That said I did fire off 2 Player Props: 

Diontae Johnson O56.5 Receiving - His target share is ramping up by the week. I don't care if Pickett or Trubisky are in, they look for him. 

Will Levis O202.5 Passing - The Steelers have a pretty miserable secondary & weather conditions aren't bad tonight. With Levis having a big arm, he could do this in just a few completions. 

 

Beyond that, I played a wide variety of Teaser combinations, highlighted mostly by these lines: 

 

Chiefs +5.5 

Seahawks +12

Jets +10 

Bengals +5

Texans +4.5 

Saints -1.5

Browns -1.5

Eagles +4

[thebestever6]

@N4Lis a chig ladder in the cars they say te js a rookie qbs best friend.

[Broncofan]

9 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

@N4Lis a chig ladder in the cars they say te js a rookie qbs best friend.

The Titans will rely a lot on the run. Levis is also pretty inaccurate.    I prefer the yards far more tonight rather than rely on volume.  
 

Okonkwo and even Burks only need 1-2 catches to hit the main prop which is preferable than thinking Levis is going to sling it.   He isn’t afraid to throw downfield though and that makes yards props so tasty tonight IMO. 

Edited November 2, 2023 by Broncofan

[MagicMT]

Woah first time ever that everything hit in one night ! All different parlays
Steelers -2.5 / D. Johnson ATTD / Johnson over 5.5 catches / Johnson over 59.5 yds + over 79.5 yds / parlay of Johnson over 59.5 yds + Okonkwo over 24.5 yds 
Thanks for the tips! 

If only every betting day was like this... 

[Broncofan]

14 hours ago, MagicMT said:

Woah first time ever that everything hit in one night ! All different parlays
Steelers -2.5 / D. Johnson ATTD / Johnson over 5.5 catches / Johnson over 59.5 yds + over 79.5 yds / parlay of Johnson over 59.5 yds + Okonkwo over 24.5 yds 
Thanks for the tips! 

If only every betting day was like this... 

Other than the TEN ML it turned out great.    Chig Okonkwo was fortunate though as they kept him in to block until the last drive (why Kyler Phillips went nuts).    That last drive showed the potential with a great backdoor 3/28 lol.   And Kenny Pickett’s 3 misfires are the only reason Diontae Johnson didn’t smash 100+ Rec yds.    Still can’t complain on a 7-90-1 night with no-sweat main & 1st alt line hit (ok a little sweat lol).  
 

Can’t even criticize the 3 TD plays that missed - Okonkwo had a TD target, was the primary EZ read when Levis kept it, Levis got tackled at the 2 and even Darnell Washington had a ton of snaps inside the 10.    If we get given those same kind of odds again I’d play it again. 
 

Still a +3.6U night feels great when I felt fortunate to get to -0.4U after Diontae’s TD.    On to Week 9 Sunday! 
 

WEEK 9 TNF

ATS/ML: 14-20-2, -3.2U (WK 9 TNF - 0-1, -1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 65-61, +55.0U  (WK 9 TNF - 2-0, +4.2U)

LONGSHOT TD: 13-115 - -18.6U  (WK 9 TNF - 1-3, +0.4U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300)

TOTAL - +33.2U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; WK 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 TNF - +3.6U; 527U stake so far)

Edited November 3, 2023 by Broncofan