Weekly Bets Thread

[JonStark]

3 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I hate myself for trusting Goff

Was more of a team effort on the loss IMO. I can't believe they all came out so flat. I'm somehow up about $200 so far on the week but that Lions game cost me a ton more. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

1 hour ago, JonStark said:

Was more of a team effort on the loss IMO. I can't believe they all came out so flat. I'm somehow up about $200 so far on the week but that Lions game cost me a ton more. 

Lions cost me some money but killed me in survivor pools 

[Broncofan]

11 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK DK appears to be back to 1 set of alt lines (Boo!), so it's back to more normal targets.   Sadly, the X+ alt lines aren't as juicy (not surprised they took the 2nd set away), so I'm only on 1 alt line for Swift, otherwise the rest are posted on the main card on page 376 (linked below).

One more injury-related TD addition - NEW ADDED SAT AM Greg Dortch +550 / +7000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1u vs. LAR - with Michael Wilson out and Hollywood Brown iffy, have to take the shot, as he's going to be a top 2 WR target with Rondale Moore at worst, and may be top.  Even if Hollywood plays, he's at worst the 3rd WR but really gets a ton of volume when he's on the field so have to take the shot, but only-half-stake given Brown may play (and McBride dominates targets first).

BOL!

 

 

 

One line I'm happy to take for SNF as it appears he's going to play - Odell Beckham O40.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +240 1U & 80+ rec yds +550 0.5U DK.   His target share goes way up when Andrews doesn't play, and it's obvious he and Lamar have a connection.   In theory he's a GTD, but the odds of playing with this type of injury are usually well over 85 percent, and being unaffected as long as you don't land on it / get piledriven.   I was all over Zay Flowers - until his yardage total was in the high 60's (thought it would be in the low-mid 50's, I guess not).

 

As for MNF, with news that D'onta Foreman is out, and now that Darrynton Evans is gone, then Roschon Johnson O6.5 rec yds 2U DK seems like a mortal lock (Travis Homer, don't screw this up).  No alt lines, and until CHI OC Getsy shows us he's not a moron, sticking to that line lol.

 

 I've posted the X+ alt lines (B365, you likely are better), and my plays are the same - as a part of the review exercise, 8/12 player props have been a good move to take early (and take the alt lines ASAP, as they change even more) - 3/12 stayed the same, and 1 dropped 1 yard.    The change is pretty dramatic in some cases, too:

Tank Dell 62.5 - now 63.5

Mike Evans 61.5 - now 66.5 (!!!)

Josh Downs 47.5 - now 49.5

Jonathan Taylor O3.5 catches - +130, now -105 (!!!)

Trey McBride O50.5 - now 55.5 (!!!)

D'Andre Swift O15.5 - now 16.5

David Njoku O38.5 - now O40.5

Jerome Ford O48.5 rush yds - now 52.5 (!!!)

Diontae Johnson is the only one that went down - while Rashid Shaheed, Saquon Barkley & Ty Chandler (who's playing on MNF so still time, but I think most casuals won't go there).  

So it took a while to get my free 0.2U plays offered x2, but I have them - so I"m going with the 8-leg YOLO +140000  parley with Dell O63.5 rec yds /  Downs O49.5 rec yds / Shaheed O37.5 rec yds / Saquon O20.5 rec yds / Swift O16.5 rec yds / Njoku O40.5 rec yds / Ford O52.5 rush yds / OBJ O40.5 rec yds (allowing me the SNF hedgeout if it's still live).  I will also take my 2nd 0.2U free bet credit play with Isaiah Ford +3500 for top Sunday rusher.    That's pretty much it until after the early slate is done....BOL!

 

 

Edited November 25, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

I have an addiction lol i opened up a new sports book just to get lawrence cager at +25000 2 tds and Charlie Kollar 2 tds +30000 

I only did two plays two plays not recommended by @Broncofan 

Will Levis 2.units over 5.5 rushing 1 unit 25 yards +450. Runs a 4.7 40 Really like these numbers.

I also played Jeudy 37.5 yards with his talent  and ward out there's a chance Clevelands d let's up points like they did against indy couple weeks ago. I think this is gonna be a higher scoring game.

Edited November 26, 2023 by thebestever6

[thebestever6]

oh and for anyone wondering betmgm is the sports book. There's not much value on that book but there's interesting bets and the long shot 2 tds is the only place I found value.

[Trojan]

Three DK lineups today

QB CJ Stroud
RB Pacheco
RB Warren
WR Mike Evans
WR Tank Dell
WR Justin Watson
TE Dalton Schultz
FLEX Rasheed Shaheed
DST  Steelers

QB Kyler Murray
RB Pacheco
RB Warren
WR Davante Adams
WR Greg Dortch
WR Justin Watson
TE Trey McBride
FLEX  AJ Brown
DST Steelers

QB Baker Mayfield
RB Etienne
RB Warren
WR Davante Adams
WR Mike Evans
WR Justin Watson
TE David Njoku
FLEX Nico Collins
DST Buccaneers

went hard on Warren when Najee refused to comment on OC change in press meeting, he seemed upset which made me think he'll lose considerable enough playtime to Warren, maybe too conspiracy-y to be in all three lineups but yolo

edit 4th lineup I thought of after posting:

QB CJ Stroud
RB Pacheco
RB Warren
WR Mike Evans
WR Tank Dell
WR Nico Collins
TE Njoku
FLEX Justin Watson
DST Eagles

Edited November 26, 2023 by Trojan

[Broncofan]

Before I forget, along with the OBJ O40.5 & 60/80+ alt lines & Kollar TD plays, I have 3 more plays:

Donald Parham O15.5 rec yds 2U 

Donald Parham +550 / +7500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD

BAL -3 2U

[Broncofan]

Well, that was an abysmal day with player props, which tanked my day...even though I had a great day with longshot TD's, and broke even with ATS/ML.....

WEEK 12 RECAP

ATS/ML - 2-3, even - NO losing all their WR's and Derek Carr playing horribly sunk NO ML, while Kevin Stefanski somehow deciding to run the ball <20x against DEN's porous run D, and losing DTR & having PJ Walker enter the game, along with the -3 TO margin, sunk CLE.    HOU ML was sunk by some pretty crazy penalty calls & bad 3rd/4th down play calling by OC Slowik; of all the 3 L's, HOU is a call I'd have backed again, way it goes.    PIT & BAL 2U help even the score.

PLAYER PROPS - 4-8, -24.0U (ouch) - all 4 winners only hit the main line, no alt lines....so that's how you end up with a -24.0U day.   Shaheed was an injury, and OBJ/Dell got out to fast starts, only to just get phased out in the 2H (weird with Dell as HOU was trailing, oh well).    Diontae Johnson had the same issue, but as I picked PIT to win, gamescript as a team in the lead definitely reduced his work (and TE Pat Friermuth ate today).   

The set of bad picks that I have to reconsider my evals on - Taylor catches & Downs rec yds (again in a matchup I thought they'd win with all the TAM injuries), and Swift (weather & PHI OC Johnson not using him enough in general) & Barkley rec yds (again a game I pegged as them winning).   I can't do much about Rasheed Shaheed getting hurt, or even Dell in a trail scenario, but I did have PIT & IND & NYG winning - so assuming a lot of pass work was a faulty assumption.   WIll adjust in my projections going forward.

LONGSHOT TD - 3-10, +7.8U - the only silver lining in my day.    Only a few really bad calls where guys got little to no work (Kollar was out there, but not really in pass game, Kyle Phillips barely was out there - again, another gamescript where TEN was ahead and leaned on the run game).   The other guys who missed were out there, so can't really complain.  But Dortch, Hodgins & Bryant (the last 2 at +1100 & +1400) really saved my bacon.    

Still, it's a tough week going -16.2U today, and -17.8U overall.    Let's hope MNF will be kinder and let me lick my wounds and bounce back for Week 13...

 

WEEK 12 to SNF

ATS/ML: 24-29-2, -2.8U (WK 12 TNF - 3-4, even)

PLAYER PROPS: 100-96, +77.4U  (WK 12 SNF 8-13, -28.4U)

LONGSHOT TD: 21-164 - -17.7U  (WK 12 TNF: 5-18, +10.2U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400)

TOTAL - +56.9U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12 SNF - -17.8U; 812U stake so far)

Edited November 27, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

WEEK 12 MNF CARD

ATS/ML

MIN -3 - Brian Flores has the D playing great, and the O is still very functional, as long as they keep the Passtronaut Josh Dobbs from turning it over.  Against a Bears team that relies on Josh Fields and then a CHI D that tries to keep the ball in front of them in pass D, and stymies the run, stylistically it matches up well for the Vikes.  You give me 3 pts or less at home, I have to back the Purple People Eaters

PLAYER PROPS 

So for MNF, the 2 sets of DK alt lines are back, so that gives me an opp to go a little crazy...

Ty Chandler O9.5 rec yds (SUN AM - now 10.5) 2U, 20+ rec yds +200 1U, 30 rec yds +500 0.5U, 40+ rec yds +750 (X+ last alt line) 0.5U DK - yes, I said that my RB pass yard evals were off this past Sunday.   Here's the thing - the total # for Chandler is 10+ yds to break even, and MIN can't run the ball....they have to pass the ball.   And again, the CHI pass D gives up the MOST yards to RB's.....when you combine those 2 factors, I have to take the rare 4U (3 alt line play here) given the value.

Brandon Powell O22.5 rec yds 2U FD, alt lines pending DK (will take 40+ & 60+ prop) - in theory the WR3 with JJ out, but again I think he's a better talent than KJ Osborn and he also gets to play 60% of snaps in the slot, where CHI gives up almost half of the fantasy points to them (and he gets to avoid Jaylon Johnson).

DJ Moore O60.5 rec yds 2U FD, 82+ rec yds +210 1U DK, 104+ rec yds +500 0.5U - MIN still gives up 170 yds a game to WR's, and you know who that usually ends up being when Justin Fields is the QB.  

Roschon Johnson O6.5 rec yds 2U DK / O1.5 catches +130 2U - with D'onta Foreman ruled out, it should put Roschon as the #2 RB, and more pass work in the mix.   I get that Travis Homer is on the roster, but for this low a number, I have to take the shot.  So sad I can't get the B365 catch ladder with him or Chandler...

 

LONGSHOT TD

Brandon Powell +500 / +7000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U FD, ?late odds for 2nd reload - too much PT with JJ out to be given these odds.   NGL, if FD raises these odds to +700 or better (and push 2+ to +9000 or +9500), I may double up a 2nd 0.4U / 0.1U play too.  Even though it didn't cash, Donald Parham went from +320 to +550 in the last hour, so I'm looking at something similar here with Powell.

With those 4 player props and the rare 4U play along with likely a full unit on Brandon Powell, it makes it a 17U play for MNF.   Hoping we can finish strong and take the sting out of Week 12 Sunday!

 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

Tank dell had a 58 yarder called back as soon as that happened I knew we were in for a rough day. The 3 tds were the glimmer of hope thankyou for that. And Downs git 13 targets I truly believe that eval was sound just came up short.

[SmittyBacall]

16 hours ago, Broncofan said:

(and TE Pat Friermuth ate today). 

Hindsight is 20/20, but with a Steelers new-OC rejuvenation and the Bengals on deck, this was an obvious oversight that would have caked.

[thebestever6]

I had Friermuth pin pointed Friday he wasn't on bet365 was gonna play his catches. The yard explosion I had no idea he could lead the league in receiving yards Sunday. He wasn't on bet365 Saturday either so I took it as a sign not to play it huge mistake.

What's it usually mean when books take to long to come out with a players totals? That they are having putting a number together?

[SmittyBacall]

Roschon Johnson 4 receptions +1500. First quarter cash.

[Broncofan]

12 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Roschon Johnson 4 receptions +1500. First quarter cash.

Even though I would have donated another 4U with Ty Chandler, that would have been a 17U win playing the 2-3-4 catch ladder for Roschon...ugh well I'm glad for. you all.

Missing on Chandler hurts obv, but it's a case where the analysis was correct...but the coaches decided to NOT exploit this weakness.   Which is brutal, since Dobbs couldn't get much going downfield, it was the obvious play.  Oh well, that's the way it goes sometimes.

Still, the analysis overall was accurate - Brandon Powell was the #2 WR, and hit his main & alt line very easily, Roschon Johnson got his pass work (and then some), and DJ Moore just ate (MIN is great at creating sacks / stopping O's but they are vulnerable to #1 WR's with no shutdown CB).   

DJ Moore hits all his alt lines (and then some),  Roschon was an easy yard / catch win, and Brandon Powell hit main & 1st alt line, so even with the -4U Chandler and no TD from Powell & MIN -3 losing, it's still a big +9.5U day.   NGL, after the -17.2U carnage yesterday, I needed that for the right mindset heading into TNF.   

Will definitely need to revise my projections for RB's overall, but it helps to right the ship.  On to Week 13!

 

WEEK 12 FINAL

ATS/ML: 24-30-2, -3.8U (WK 12 - 3-5, -1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 103-97, +88.4U  (WK 12 - 11-14, -17.4U)

LONGSHOT TD: 21-165 - -18.2U  (WK 12 - 5-19, +9.7U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400)

TOTAL - +66.4U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12 SNF - -8.3U; 829U stake so far)

Edited November 28, 2023 by Broncofan

[KhanYouDigIt]

I’ll be shocked if next Monday night isn’t an ETN/Engram game.