Weekly Bets Thread

[DawgX]

Rarely ever bet but betting on Lawrence and Browning to both have rushing TDs paid off well.

[Broncofan]

21 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Browning down to +650 on bet365. 😀 

 

19 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Thank you for your weekly insight @Broncofan

I look forward to your plays each and every week brother

Thx, really this thread is about trying to beat the books together.  But tonight's a great example of a community win, thx to @SmittyBacall's understanding of Browning's abilities.    It was great to hit, because we're probably not getting odds any better than +600-+700 (if that) from now on.

 

On 12/4/2023 at 12:34 AM, Broncofan said:

All right, let's get down to business for Monday....

WEEK 13 MNF

ATS/ML

Sadly....no idea.   No play.

 

PLAYER PROPS

Trevor Lawrence O11.5 rush yds 2U; 18+ rush yds +200 1U & 28+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK vs. CIN - already covered before, not much to add.

Evan Engram O4.5 catches +110 2U (B365 / US FD - consider 6-7) vs. CIN - CIN's horrific vs. TE, but Engram often plays the short area, so I prefer the catch prop.  B365 & US FD owners, I'd seriously consider 6-7 alt lines (and 8 if you must lol).

NEW ADDED SUN PM - Calvin RIdley O56.5 rec yds FD (DK 58.5) 2U; 79+ rec yds +210 1U & 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U - CIN gives up almost 70+ percent of their fantasy WR points to boundary WR's - and CIN CB Cam Taylor-Britt is again inactive.   With RIdley running the fully diversified route tree since Zay Jones returned to run most of the go routes, gotta go back to the well here. 

NEW ADDED SUN PM - Ja'marr Chase O56.5 rec yds DK (FD 57.5) 2U;  75+ rec yds +210 1U & 96+ rec yds +500 0.5U - I know Jake Browning isn't Joe Burrow.  But here's the thing - JAX is a top 5 run D, they have to throw it.   And even if it's by sheer volume, I think Ja'marr will get his.   He also can hit 1 big chunk play and get most of the alt line.   If Burrow was playing, this line would be 20-25 yards higher.   If not more.   That's too much of an overcorrection.

Really, if all the above players stay healthy, I'm good with this line.  That's 12.5U with 4 players, more than enough lol

 

LONGSHOT TD

NEW ADDED SUN PM - D'Ernest Johnson +450 / +4500 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U vs. CIN - I know that Travis Etienne is supposed to play, but I have to believe D'Ernest will take over duties more with Etienne nursing some injuries, it's good value at +400 or more as I think it should be more like +200 with Etienne's issues.   I'd probably have stuck to the half-stake play, but the Week 13 Sunday roll has me risking the full-stake (YOLO lol). 

NEW ADDED SUN PM - Luke Farrell +1100 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. CIN - 3rd TE Brenton Strange was seen in a boot on Saturday and added to the injury report - which just makes Farrell a more solid 12 formation RZ play.    It's what led to the 2 TD's with Bryant and Gray this week, I was already looking here, but the Strange news has me definitely playing this, albeit at half-stake since he is clearly the #2 TE and they don't design plays for him specifically (like Parham, etc.). 

NEW ADDED SUN PM - Andre Iosivas +1500 DK (+1400 FD) / +16000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ JAX - yes, Tee Higgins is back.  Yes, Trenton Irwin is ahead of him as 4th WR.  But as we saw in the SF game, even with all 5 WR's active, the Bengals like having Iosivas on the field near the EZ.    At that insane #, have to take the half-stake play.

NEW ADDED SUN PM - Tanner Hudson +800 DK (+650 elsewhere) / +11000 FD 0.4U / 0.1U @ JAX - yes, Irv Smith and even Drew Sample (being better blockers) take a lot of snaps away in the RZ.  It's just as long as Hudson is clearly their best receiving TE, it's worth attacking the prop at those odds.   He literally gets most of the targets now...and yet he's priced at similar or longer odds than Smith.   Gotta take the half-unit play here.

 

So that's 2.5U with 4 TD plays, and 15U for tomorrow's slate, which is a little aggressive, but I had my eye on all 4 player props, and the TD plays above all have great value according to my evals, so gotta stick with them.   Let's finish an awesome Week 13 strong with MNF; BOL!

So along with @SmittyBacall's Browning play (which actually was +1400 by closing this afternoon on FD <Woohoo>), another profitable night, even without Engram's alt lines with B365 / US FD (but again, congrats to you all who had it).

PLAYER PROPS - 2-2, +1.8U - Calvin Ridley was absolutely snakebitten, with Lawrence bobbling the snap and then lame-ducking a clear 40+ yard play, if not 60+ yard TD...and then a rather iffy holding penalty took back another 42 yard catch.  Still, that's the way it goes (and a CIN win got me $20 on my FD SB-prop bet, and it gets HOU back in range for the AFCS, especially if T-Law is out, so at +500 2U, which would help the +13000 Stroud MVP 1U ticket, I"ll allow it lol).

LONGSHOT TD - Iosivas was a bad play, Farrell had lots of snaps & opps, so did Hudson & D'Ernest Johnson (but they leaned on Etienne more than I'd hoped)....but man oh man, Jake Browning hits for a beautiful +1400 and a +4.0U win.

So a +5.8U MNF (and more if you had Engram alt lines on 6-7-8 catches), and a fantastic +63.2U WEEK 13 - AMAZING!

On to Week 14!   And a TNF game that.......well, it was an amazing Week 13 lol.

 

WEEK 13 FINAL

ATS/ML: 28-31-2, -0.8U (WK 13 - 4-1, +3U)

PLAYER PROPS: 115-106, +113.8U  (WK 13 - 11-6, +25.4U)

LONGSHOT TD: 25-179 - +166U  (WK 13 - 4-16, +34.8U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400)

TOTAL - +129.6U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; 921U stake so far)

Edited December 5, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK, believe it or not, there are actually about 2 player props that interest me for TNF, and there are 1-2 TD plays, so here goes....

WEEK 14 TNF

ATS/ML

Not touching anything lol

 

PLAYER PROPS

Diontae Johnson O39.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (will take 60/80 range) vs. NE - NE has the 3rd ranked run D by DVOA...and the 23rd pass D.   They just don't have the DB's to cover, and they rely on pass rush and pressure (plus a stifling run D) to lean on.   With a 40+ yard total, it's simply an overreaction to last week's monsoon in PIT, and we know TNF's forecast is actually very mild.   So this is an easy full alt line play.

George Pickens O39.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (will take 60/80 range) vs. NE - this has more risk to miss altogether, but greater ceiling to bust all the lines.   Everything that applies to Diontae, applies to Pickens.  NGL, I'm tempted to go 3 alt lines, but let's see where the alt lines land first. 

I get it's Mitch Trubisky at QB, but with the O no longer shackled by Matt Canada, these are the easiest plays to take.   I note that Pat Friermuth's big day was with a super-soft CIN TE DST, and NE is a top 5 TE DST yardage-wise

, and their RB defense is less than 35 yds per game total, so it's tough to take Jaylen Warren or Najee Harris rec yd props - especially since attacking by WR makes it a pretty easy play.  So that's likely 7U committed. 

 

LONGSHOT TD
 

Calvin Austin III +1400 FD / ?? 2-TD (not out yet) 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NE - Staying with the theme of attacking the secondary, Austin alternates with Allen Robinson for WR3 duties, and while A-Rob still has the upper hand, he's also "only" +550.   Given the big play potential Austin offers, I'll go here. 

NO TD SCORER DK +1600 0.5U - As long as the odds are appealing, I have to take this play as well.   This could easily be a 12-3 type game.   Just laying the marker to consider this very rare play.

 

For now, I really think that's enough.   Even 8U seems steep to commit given the absurdly low total for TNF (O/U is now 30 pts, lol).     I want no part of Pats props without Rhamondre Stevenson or Demario Douglas (and frankly, I'm not sure I'd want Douglas with the current NE QB situation lol).  We'll see if there's anything more interesting, but lesson from prior years - don't force plays if they aren't obvious on single-game slates.   BOL!

Edited December 5, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Turning to hoops, it's time for the old reliable - OKC gives up an average of 22+ pts to SG's, and 23+ pts to C, and it's a home game, so back to the well with Alperen Senguin O21.5 pts 2U / 25+ +180 1U / 30+ +500 0.5U FD & Jalen Green O20.5 pts 2U / 25+ +215 1U / 30+ +650 0.5U FD.

This is for Wed night's game, but figured with the lines already up, it's not getting better, so better to take the 7U play now.   BOL!

[SaveOurSonics]

Boy. All I needed was a Jags win outright & it would've been a monster weekend. Really didn't expect to be let down tonight lol. 

[SmittyBacall]

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK, believe it or not, there are actually about 2 player props that interest me for TNF, and there are 1-2 TD plays, so here goes....

WEEK 14 TNF

ATS/ML

Not touching anything lol

 

PLAYER PROPS

Diontae Johnson O39.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (will take 60/80 range) vs. NE - NE has the 3rd ranked run D by DVOA...and the 23rd pass D.   They just don't have the DB's to cover, and they rely on pass rush and pressure (plus a stifling run D) to lean on.   With a 40+ yard total, it's simply an overreaction to last week's monsoon in PIT, and we know TNF's forecast is actually very mild.   So this is an easy full alt line play.

George Pickens O39.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (will take 60/80 range) vs. NE - this has more risk to miss altogether, but greater ceiling to bust all the lines.   Everything that applies to Diontae, applies to Pickens.  NGL, I'm tempted to go 3 alt lines, but let's see where the alt lines land first. 

I get it's Mitch Trubisky at QB, but with the O no longer shackled by Matt Canada, these are the easiest plays to take.   I note that Pat Friermuth's big day was with a super-soft CIN TE DST, and NE is a top 5 TE DST yardage-wise

, and their RB defense is less than 35 yds per game total, so it's tough to take Jaylen Warren or Najee Harris rec yd props - especially since attacking by WR makes it a pretty easy play.  So that's likely 7U committed. 

 

LONGSHOT TD
 

Calvin Austin III +1000 TheScore (wait on other books) / ?? 2-TD (not out yet) 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NE - Staying with the theme of attacking the secondary, Austin alternates with Allen Robinson for WR3 duties, and while A-Rob still has the upper hand, he's also "only" +550.   Given the big play potential Austin offers, I'll go here. 

NO TD SCORER DK ??? 0.5U - As long as the odds are appealing, I have to take this play as well.   This could easily be a 12-3 type game.   Just laying the marker to consider this very rare play.

 

For now, I really think that's enough.   Even 8U seems steep to commit given the absurdly low total for TNF (O/U is now 30 pts, lol).     I want no part of Pats props without Rhamondre Stevenson or Demario Douglas (and frankly, I'm not sure I'd want Douglas with the current NE QB situation lol).  We'll see if there's anything more interesting, but lesson from prior years - don't force plays if they aren't obvious on single-game slates.   BOL!

Agreed on the PIT WRs. Also going to add Johnson’s reception ladder up to 8 +1450, as it feels like a quick pass, YAC game.

And just for fun, because it looks to be a horribly entertaining game, going to bet 0.5u on a safety being scored at +1225.

[SmittyBacall]

@Broncofan by the way, at what point did bet365 cut you off, and how did you know they did?

Given how this season has gone, especially the last month, I feel like it’s coming soon. Lol

[JonStark]

Was in line for a monster night if the Jags just win the game. Trevor going down cost me hundreds and possibly my fantasy league. What a crappy game.

Still ended the week up a bit thanks to @Broncofan and @SmittyBacall. There's some really great info in this thread. Great job as always guys!

[NYRaider]

Early lines I'm liking:

Bills ML

Buccaneers ML

Lions -3

Eagles ML

[thebestever6]

In fantasy I have Stroud, Kupp, Puka, DJ Moore, Nicco Collins, Jerry jeudy, Bijan Robinson, Gibbs, Rashaad White, James Cook, Sam LaPorta, Kyle Pitts, Kyler Murray. All these players and I'm fighting for the 6th seed.

I'm posting it in this thread bc it's a money league and I trust you guys. I also put in a $10 bid for the packers defense they have a soft schedule thoughts?

[adamq]

2 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

In fantasy I have Stroud, Kupp, Puka, DJ Moore, Nicco Collins, Jerry jeudy, Bijan Robinson, Gibbs, Rashaad White, James Cook, Sam LaPorta, Kyle Pitts, Kyler Murray. All these players and I'm fighting for the 6th seed.

I'm posting it in this thread bc it's a money league and I trust you guys. I also put in a $10 bid for the packers defense they have a soft schedule thoughts?

1qb? Probably not going to beat the teams who have the Josh Allen, Tyreek, Kelce, AJB, Diggs, Keenan, Evans, Lamb types. But you never know. Trade deadline passed already?

[SmittyBacall]

14 hours ago, Broncofan said:

NO TD SCORER DK ??? 0.5U - As long as the odds are appealing, I have to take this play as well.   This could easily be a 12-3 type game.   Just laying the marker to consider this very rare play.

+2200 on bet365. I'm in.

[SaveOurSonics]

Random notes as I look at games. 

 

James Cook is in a smash spot against the Chiefs this week. They have a paper mache run defense & Cook has been getting fed since the departure of Dorsey. 

CJ Stroud Under will be appealing. No Tank Dell. Bad weather. Elite pass defense. Opposing offense won't push the tempo. I have to assume the line is going to be really low for Stroud (thinking in the 240-250 range), but I still think that's a play for the Under. 

Zack Moss is another RB in a smash spot. The Jaguars were very clearly mindful of Etienne's rib injury last night, but that shouldn't be the case with Moss. Coming into last night, Cincy was the 2nd worst run defense in the league. Moss saw elite usage last week despite middling totals against a tough front. 

I wouldn't call it a smash spot, but Chuba Hubbard has looked good as of late & the Saints run defense has been sneaky awful over the last few weeks. 

 

[SmittyBacall]

I don't typically go for unders, but this line is way out of whack. Adding 1u on Najee Harris under 59.5 rushing yards. Pretty simple: New England is top 3 versus the run (and has given up the least in the league the last 3 weeks), Warren will steal touches, and I just don't think Harris is very good, nor do I think Pittsburgh is a very good rushing team. This feels 10-15 yards too high.

[Broncofan]

9 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

@Broncofan by the way, at what point did bet365 cut you off, and how did you know they did?

Given how this season has gone, especially the last month, I feel like it’s coming soon. Lol

I think you need to try and stay below the radar in 3 ways: 

1.  Do not cash out bets at insane accrued closing line value (CLV) consistently.    If you get amazing odds & cash out for guaranteed profit they definitely flag you as a sharp they look to limit if not outright close.   
 

2.  Avoid arbitrage with the same books.   As in you get CLE +180 ML and then the opposing team loses their QB and becomes the dog don’t take the +150 bet on the same book.   Another flagged activity.   Just bet on another book if you must.   
 

3.   Avoid CS unless you absolutely have to.    Be super polite.   A couple of other bettors got flagged after heated CS battles.   I know ppl will say it’s a coincidence but why attract attention.   
 

Those 2 practices and 3rd common sense situation are major flags.    Can’t do much about winning $ lol.   

Edited December 5, 2023 by Broncofan