Broncofan Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Given FD's last minute increases, I took NEW ADDED SUN PM Patrick Mahomes +750 / +12000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U @ BAL. He's literally +400 range everywhere else. Nothing else to add for the early game (Ricard made it all the way to +4000 damn lol). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tank4Drake Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Skipped Chiefs/Ravens, felt it could go either way. I did think about betting the under, glad I didn’t. I put $200 on Niners -7. If it hits, it hits. If not, not a big deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Chiefs +4.5 -113 Pacheco 15 carries +100 Pacheco TD +125 Justice Hill 33 yards DK boost KC ML and Kelce 40 yards +300 CMC 36 rec yards -110 SF ML and Det 17 points +115 Jajuan Jennings 16+ yards -118 Thats it for singles/2 leg parlays. The multi leg parlays are obscene tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, Tank4Drake said: Skipped Chiefs/Ravens, felt it could go either way. I did think about betting the under, glad I didn’t. I put $200 on Niners -7. If it hits, it hits. If not, not a big deal. This is the attitude its supposed to be. You wanna win but losing shouldn’t change how you live your life either. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tank4Drake Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, JaguarCrazy2832 said: This is the attitude its supposed to be. You wanna win but losing shouldn’t change how you live your life either. Only bet what you can afford to lose. I’ve in the casino industry for 13 years. Card Dealer, Finance Stuff, Chip Runner, Tournament Manager, you name it. Currently deal now, pays way more than any management type position, even GM’s to be honest. Tips are nuts. I always tell my customers play what you can afford (if I know them well). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Live betting Jameson Williams o26.5 rec yds 2U. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Oof this game is not going the way i expected Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) On 1/22/2024 at 1:04 AM, Broncofan said: OK so some plays are out, so here goes.... WEEK 21 CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND ATS/ML BAL -3 vs. KC 2U - full marks to KC for a tough road W. But the job gets even harder, because what BUF D was vulnerable to - BAL is just so much better (pressure with 4 guys, great pass coverage, even more so if Marlon Humphery plays). What BUF's O did, BAL is even better at - running the ball. Mahomes is always an X factor, but BUF's D was decimated in a way that BAL isn't. KC losing G Thuney, ILB Willie Gay and S Mike Edwards makes this an even tougher draw. DET +7 @ SF 2U - covered it before, not much else to say. SF deserves to be the favorite, and likely still wins, but this is at least 3 pts too wide IMO, given the matchups. So that's 4U in play. PLAYER PROPS Lamar Jackson O59.5 rush yds 2U FD/DK, 76+ rush yds +210 1U DK, 96+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK vs. KC - I want to see the DK alt lines before diving in alt lines, but I'll be taking 80+ and 110+, given what KC showed today. I'm not going to make the mistake of passing up on the best rush matchup for BAL this week. NEW ADDED MON PM - Justice Hill O30.5 rush yds 2U DK (FD - 31.5), 46+ rush yds +210 1U DK vs. KC - BAL running the ball is how you beat their D and I’ll take the guy with more touches than Gus Edwards and the lower #. NEW ADDED MON PM - Zay Flowers O4.5 recs 2U vs. KC - it missed by 1 catch last week but Flowers is still the short game proxy for BAL. KC is so good about keeping the ball in front of them the catch prop a better target than yards. NEW ADDED MON PM - Marques Valdes Scantling O12.5 rec yds 2U, 25+ rec yds +220 1U, 50+ rec yds +1100 0.5U DK @ BAL - I expect if Kyle Hamilton & Marlon Humphrey both play then Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce will draw their attention - so I’ll go with the middle / deep WR at those insanely low #’s and pray he hangs on to the ball lol. Jahmyr Gibbs O42.5 rush yds 2U DK (FD - 44.5), O21.5 rec yds 2U FD (DK - 23.5), 56+ rush yds +200 1U DK, 73+ rush yds +500 0.5U, 90+ rush yds +1100 0.5U DK @ SF - going back to the well here, with the 6U play, as Gibbs' low # targets here are mind-boggling after we saw what he did on only 9 carries vs. TAM's decent run D, and the mismatch in the pass game as well. The risk is that OC Ben Johnson doesn't utilize Gibbs like we all think he should be used (15-16 carries, 4-5 catches), but his ceiling is just so high it's worth taking the full shots here. Christian McCaffrey O34.5 rec yds 2U FD (DK - 36.5), 50+ rec yds +200 1U FD vs. DET - with no Deebo, and DET's stout run D - this sets up for a LOT more CMC in the pass game. Brock Purdy O264.5 pass yds 2U DK (FD - 265.5), 296+ pass yds +210 1U, 328+ pass yds +500 0.5U vs. DET - pretty easy call here, as DET's pass funnel D sets up for a big day for Purdy no matter the game outcome. NEW ADDED MON PM - George Kittle O58.5 rec yds 2U DK, 77+ rec yds +210 1U DK vs. DET - as long as Deebo is iffy this prop number easy to take vs the DET pass funnel D. NEW ADDED Juan Jennings O17.5 rec yds 2U / 40+ rec yds +425 1U / 60+ rec yds +1300 0.5U vs. DET as a YOLO play - if Deebo is a decoy, this has ridiculous smash potential. I suspect Deebo's injury is an AC sprain, so that's definitely in play. But buyer beware, this has massive boom-bust potential, but I've never been one to shy away from these calls, so let's hope I'm right on the decoy play. So that's 31U already committed to the 9 plays above. LONGSHOT TD Nelson Agholor +800 FD (+700 DK) / 2-TD pending (+10000 DK, waiting for Bodog) 0.4U / 0.1U & Patrick Ricard +3800 FD (+1700 DK) / +20000 2+ DK vs. KC - Agholor I don't even need to explain, but Ricard as the FB with KC's pass D, makes for an intriguing Jusczyk-like play. Marques Valdes-Scantling +1000 Bodog (+750 DK/FD) / +12500 2+ Bodog (+12000 2+) FD 0.8U / 0.2U & Noah Gray +1000 Bodog (+900 FD / +800 DK) / +12500 2+ Bofog (+12000 2+ DK) 0.4U / 0.1U @ BAL & Clyde Edwards-Helaire +900 FD (+650 DK / +750 Bodog) / +10000 2+ Bodog (+8000 DK) 0.4U / 0.1U @ BAL - MVS actually hung on to the ball today, and as a result, he got tons of looks. He and Gray get so much RZ work it's worth it. Meanwhile, CEH is the clear pass-down back and with BAL's coverage, again CEH is a pretty decent RZ pass down target to look for. Khalif Raymond +1200 DK / +15000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK @ SF - with Deebo Samuel's status up in the air, all the SF bit players are really lacking value (except for the lunchpail guy), but for DET, if he's active, Raymond goes back to the 3rd/4th WR role, so plenty of value here if he can get active again. EDIT SAT PM: Raymond inactive, bet voids Kyle Jusczyk +1200 DK / +14000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK vs. DET - if I'm going to take Ricard, with no Deebo, you know I'm going to take some Juice at these odds. NEW ADDED MON PM - Anthony Firkser +1800 FD / +16000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ SF - with Brock Wright and James Mitchell both on IR Firkser is literally the TE2 left standing. If Zach Ertz gets activated and he can get +1000 I’ll likely repeat at half-stake as well. NEW ADDED WED AM - Zach Ertz +800 FD / +12000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U @ SF - basically taking the only 2 active backup TE's left when DET goes 12 or even 13 formation at the GL. EDIT SAT PM: Ertz inactive, bet voids That’s likely it for KC-BAL, I'm almost certainly on Juan Jennings props (which likely don't get released until Deebo Samuel status is known). So that's 4U in 9 plays. I'll definitely be looking to add 1-2 more SF receiving plays, and I might add 1-2 plays from the BAL-KC game, but that's enough for now at 39U for 2 games so far. BOL! Well a tough Conference Championship, my main regret was with the BAL-KC Game, but it's more regret directed at the BAL coaching staff.... ATS/ML - 1-1, even - Lions cover, Ravens came up with literally the WORST gameplan ever to run the ball 15x total (and WR 2x and Lamar 4 pass scrambles as part of those 15)...man. PLAYER PROPS - 5-4, -7.2U - the BAL props not hitting were just because of that CRAZY gameplan...but OK. Gibbs' fumble put him on the bench until the end, and absolutely killed what looked like a great game. Damn, but part of the game. Kittle / Jennings just didn't get as much work. Even though I hit 5 props, only 1 went alt lines (Jennings), which is why it's a -EV day. Oh well. LONGSHOT TD - 0-8, -4.5U - Kyle Jusczyk and Anthony Firkser literally <2 yards from paydirt. Oh well. So that's a -11.7U Conference championship. On to the SB, where I'll likely only be on 3-4 player props, can't really chase too hard. NGL, I'm super bummed on the Lions though.....had some great longshot tickets...damn you Dan Campbell game management (not just the 4th down plays, but the ARSB Run play, the 3rd down GL play with Monty.....just bad all around Dan). WEEK 21 FINAL ATS/ML: 49-44-1, +7.8U (WK 21 - 1-1, even) PLAYER PROPS: 169-164, +110.5U (WK 21 - 5-4, -7.2U ) LONGSHOT TD: 46-293, +52.8U (WK 21 - 0-8, -4.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950; WK17 - J-Johnson +550, J-Browning +1100, C-Kolar +1500, J-Love +950 & J-Mundt +1100; WK18 K-Miller +400; WK19 - B-Jordan +800 & T-Atwell +1000 & D-Johnson +500 & C-Austin +2000) TOTAL - +171.1U (WK1: +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U; WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; WK17 - +23.3U; WK18 -9.4U; WK19 - +10.3U; WK20 - -0.7U; WK21 - -11.2U; 1589U stake so far) Edited January 29 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Disappointed Jennings didn't get there, but it just didn't work out that way. He only needed one more decent catch, but I'm still ecstatic. SF -1.5 8n the SB, I'll take it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tank4Drake Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I’m 10-4 since predicting Super Bowl’s on record. Never been wrong back to back, but also 0-2 in Niner Super Bowls. 2010: Packers over Steelers - W 2011: Giants over Patriots - W 2012: 49ers over Ravens - L 2013: Seahawks over Broncos - W 2014: Patriots over Seahawks - W 2015: Broncos over Panthers - W 2016: Falcons over Patriots - L 2017: Eagles over Patriots - W 2018: Patriots over Rams - W 2019: 49ers over Chiefs - L 2020: Buccaneers over Chiefs - W 2021: Bengals over Rams - L 2022: Chiefs over Eagles - W I’m taking Niners 28-26, they cover by half a point. MVP is Brandon Aiyuk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) DK & FD didn't waste any time, player props are out, so here goes... WEEK 22 SUPER BOWL ATS/ML SF ML -115 Bodog (-120 everywhere else) 2U - I really thought the books would move the line down, but looks like they're making a stand on the 49ers. PLAYER PROPS Rashee Rice O65.5 rec yds 2U DK (SUN AM - now 68.5; FD - 67.5), 85+ rec yds +210 1U vs. SF - I think we can see that SF's coverage has issues with YAC and versatlie WR's, so that's Rice. Travis Kelce O66.5 rec yds 2U FD (SUN AM - now 72.5; DK - 69.5), 90+ rec yds +210 DK 1U vs. SF - the chemistry between Mahomes and Kelce is undeniable. Isaiah Pacheco O66.5 rush yds 2U FD (SUN AM - now 67.5; DK - 66.5), 86+ rush yds +210 1U DK vs. SF - we've seen what SF is vulnerable to, and we know KC commits with #10. Deebo Samuel O55.5 rec yds 2U DK (SUN AM - now 58.5; DK - 58.5), 73+ rec yds +210 1U DK, 99+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ KC - he made it through the NFCG, and now has 2 weeks to heal up - he should be a full go. WIth the KC O keeping the ball in front of them, that's a major helping of Deebo & CMC in the pass game. Christian McCaffrey O31.5 rec yds 2U FD (SUN AM - now 33.5; DK - 33.5), 50+ rec yds +250 (now +210) 1U FD @ KC - if you're going to play KC's pass D for props, going after the short area guys who won't get L'jarius Snead is the play. With Willie Gay having a neck injury, CMC, Deebo & 1 other guy are the big mismatches. George Kittle O49.5 rec yds 2U DK (SUN AM - now 50.5; FD - 49.5), 66+ rec yds +210 1U DK @ KC - of all the 3 receiving threats I'm taking, this is the one I feel most worried about, but Kittle has that gamebreaking ability, can't pass up this low of a #. Brock Purdy O10.5 rush yds 2U DK (SUN AM - now 11.5; FD - 12.5), 18+ rush yds +210 1U, 27+ rush yds +500 0.5U @ KC - because KC's coverage is still excellent, taking a rush prop here makes too much sense at these low #'s. I don't expect a 50+ yard rush performance like this week, but even 20+ yards will be very profitable. NEW ADDED SUN PM Kyle Jusczyk O4.5 rec yds FD (DK - O3.5 -140) 1.5U, 25+ rec yds +650 0.5U - KC D vulnerable to RB, so that's also Juice. Gotta take the 25+ stab at that low number / alt line boost. So that's 24U in 8 plays. I figured I was only doing 3-4 plays, but then the totals came out so low - and I know by the time gametime rolls around, I expect at least 4 of these props will be 3-4+ yards more (some of them are already 2 yards up after opening). As DK did offer me the free SGP bet credit, I've put in 0.4U 7-leg +9500 for Pacheco O68.5 rush yds / Rice O65.5 rec yds / Kelce O69.5 rec yds / Deebo O57.5 rec yds / Kittle O49.5 rec yds / Purdy O11.5 rush yds - YOLO... LONGSHOT TD PROPS Noah Gray +1000 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. SF - sadly MVS is down to +600, so I'm going to wait (I'd love to see +800). Gray is the only usual KC suspect whose number appeals right away. NEW ADDED SUN PM - Marques Valdes-Scantling +700 FD / +8000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD vs. SF (WILL WAIT UNTIL SUN PM) - this has been at +550 all week long, then finally moved up. If it gets to +800 / +10000 2+ on FD, I'll pounce...but I'm willing to wait given the trend...for now. NEW ADDED SUN PM - Justin Watson +700 FD / +8000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. SF - along with Rice & MVS, the other RZ WR target. NEW ADDED THU PM - Mecole Hardman +1600 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. SF - I originally thought this might go up, but then it went down to +1500, and briefly returned to +1600, so I took it then. It's now at +1300, so even a late surge isn't likely to hit +1700 again. Kyle Jusczyk +1300 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ KC - Juice was THAT close to scoring vs. DET, I expect at least 1-2 touches in the RZ again. Worth the play. NEW ADDED SUN AM - Elijah Mitchell +1100 FD/DK / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - call it my 0.5U hedge against a CMC injury. I know CMC's had 2 weeks to recover from his calf strain that he played through, but being the last game, at these odds (it's +600 on Bodog, as a contrast), have to take the final stab. NEW ADDED SUN PM - Juan Jennings +800 FD / +10000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ KC - doesn't get the volume, but might have the best matchup vs. the KC CB's. So that's 4U with 7 TD plays. So that's 30U for now, and we are done. That wraps up a profitable year, even if it didn't get to the 200U+ heights we've enjoyed the past 3 years. BOL! WEEK 21 FINAL ATS/ML: 49-44-1, +7.8U (WK 21 - 1-1, even) PLAYER PROPS: 169-164, +110.5U (WK 21 - 5-4, -7.2U ) LONGSHOT TD: 46-293, +52.8U (WK 21 - 0-8, -4.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950; WK17 - J-Johnson +550, J-Browning +1100, C-Kolar +1500, J-Love +950 & J-Mundt +1100; WK18 K-Miller +400; WK19 - B-Jordan +800 & T-Atwell +1000 & D-Johnson +500 & C-Austin +2000) TOTAL - +171.1U (WK1: +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U; WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; WK17 - +23.3U; WK18 -9.4U; WK19 - +10.3U; WK20 - -0.7U; WK21 - -11.2U; 1589U stake so far) Edited February 12 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) On 1/26/2024 at 1:46 PM, adamq said: YOLO (homer) super bowl MVP bets Kittle +11000 Greenlaw +75000 Bosa +15000 I pushed a little more on Kittle at +9000 and its already down to +7500. Him or Deebo (+4100) are the best bet for SF, I think. DK still has wildly lower lines than FD right now, haven't checked anywhere else yet tonight Edited January 29 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Odds to win the 2025 super bowl Sf +450 Bal +700 KC +850 Buf +1200 Cin +1500 Det/Phi +1700 Mia +2000 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 12 hours ago, adamq said: Disappointed Jennings didn't get there, but it just didn't work out that way. He only needed one more decent catch, but I'm still ecstatic. SF -1.5 8n the SB, I'll take it Yea Deebo was way more involved than I expected Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 SF coming back to win was huge for me. Grabbed KC at +114 shortly after the end so i have KC +114 and SF +900 from preseason to lock in a great profit 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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