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Weekly Bets Thread


BStanRamFan

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3 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Chargers down to -4.5, man that feels too easy. I wanna smash it but that feels so sketchy

It is a smash.  The Panthers have only won 2 of their last 18 regular season games and of the 16 games they lost, 13 of them were by 5 points or more.  

Even -6.5 was a smash IMO, but -4.5, you have got to take it.  

Edited by iknowcool
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Adding 2 more plays to the SUN props, one you knew I was waiting for, the other I couldn't pass up the value at the low #:

ADDED SEPT 13 - Mark Andrews O3.5 rec +100 FD 2U (consider alt lines for 5/6 if you have B365) vs LV - this is just too low.   KC doubled Andrews all day, highest rate ever for him.   LV isn't likely to do the same, so I have to take it.

ADDED SEPT 13 - Tre Tucker O17.5 rec yds 2U / 40+ rec yds +400 1U / 60+ rec yds +1200 0.5U DK @ BAL - WK1 confirmed that he's the 3rd WR out there, and he played over 70+ percent of the snaps.   As the speed guy, like Rasheed Shaheed, it only takes 1 play to get into the alt lines, so at those #'s, it's worth the shot.

 

 

 

Edited by Broncofan
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4 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Interesting. I would think if Walker is out and Gonzo shuts out DK things get hairy for Seattle

SEA's D is really that good now.   DEN's O is bad, but SEA made 3-4 key upgrades to their D, and Mike McDonald's play calling was excellent.

SEA gave up 2 safeties and 2 TO's inside their own 30.   They went in prevent mode up 13 pts with 5 mins left to give up DEN's only TD drive.   That's why DEN got to 20 pts - incredibly misleading result for how good SEA's D was.   Again, DEN's pass game is miserable.    

But this is the key part - NE's pass O is equally miserable.   CIN's run D is why the NE stayed on the field.   Their inability to protect Brissett showed up in spades.     CIN's TO's and their inability to move the ball is what allowed NE to lean on the run game and win.

As always, TO's can swing the equation, but I get the pessimism on winning today.

I will also say while he can't hit the home run Charbonnet is very serviceable.  He'd be starting on about 10+ backfields TBH.

Edited by Broncofan
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10 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I am only only 2 of those spread favorites but on several in 2 leg ML parlays

Colts -3

Chargers -4.5

For better or worse that’s me too lol.  Some of those will hit.   Some weeks more will hit than miss.    But it’s wild the public is so chalk heavy.     That’s ignoring a ton of history with the books. 

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Part of me really likes the Vikings to pull off an upset, being at home with 49ers coming off a Monday night game.  They won the game last year and held the 49ers to 17 points.  SF didn't have Deebo Samuel that day, but they did have CMC who won't be playing today.  Cousins threw for almost 400 yards against them last year and that was without Justin Jefferson.  No way Darnold pulls that off, but might be a sign that KOC has a good gameplan to attack the 49ers pass defense.

 

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