2019/2020 Offseason

[Forge]

1 hour ago, jetskid007 said:

Feels like a direct shot at the Jets/Bell

Don't let it fool you. The niners and shanny still threw big money at McKinnon, tried to get Bell, and then signed Coleman to a somewhat reasonable deal. So they've been throwing money at the position as well. Why? I have no idea. I've been yelling for the last two years about it in the 49er thread lol. 

[jetskid007]

9 minutes ago, Forge said:

Don't let it fool you. The niners and shanny still threw big money at McKinnon, tried to get Bell, and then signed Coleman to a somewhat reasonable deal. So they've been throwing money at the position as well. Why? I have no idea. I've been yelling for the last two years about it in the 49er thread lol. 

No I know, I meant it more so in the sense that as it has applied to us, the new regime wanted to go cheaper at RB and use the resources invested in Bell elsewhere, whereas Maccagnan/ownership were linked to Bell early in the 2018 season. 

Bell's gift is his patience, but as we saw this year, it's not a great fit for a zone blocking OL lacking talent, unlike the Steelers, who had a lot of man-zone combos and asked their talented OL to hold their first level blocks longer when running zone plays, something that's far more difficult than it sounds. Jets asked Bell to hit the hole as designed to try to help the efficiency of the offense, but it just isn't his way; it's like trying to tell a lefty to bat righty. 

As far as SF - the way they built there roster has definitely intrigued me. They've been lucky in that they've made up for every high profile "bust" with a player who has far exceeded expectations, i.e. Mostert for McKinnon (they apparently offered Bell a 1 year, $12m contract too), Tomlinson/Garland for Richburg/Garnett, Warner for Foster... got lucky in a lot of circumstances, but also comes back to good coaching. 

[DowNY]

On 1/18/2020 at 9:58 AM, jetskid007 said:

A better idea? Wait until 48 or 68 to take one of the 366489 other receiver prospects in the deepest receiver class ever, or use maybe a 4th or 5th to jump up a few spots in round 2 instead of mortgaging an additional top 70 pick to move up 20 spots. 

Just because the media has overlooked guys and the mock drafts are telling a different story doesn’t mean the second wave of receiver prospects aren’t as good as the aforementioned. The talent gap between a guy like Shenault to Aiyuk or even DPJ is not as big as you’d think; In fact, I’d put money on Shenault being available in round 2 this year. 

Not saying this is your position, but if you were to take the stance of “the Jets haven’t drafted good receivers in rounds 2 or 3 over the past 10 years, so I’d rather one in R1” that would be a fallacy. It’s no more likely that we’d take the right receiver just because they have a “Round 1” attached to their name than it is we’d take the right on in rounds 2, 3, and it’s an entirely different regime. 

Respect the thinking outside of the box, but just think you’re way too hellbent on drafting a receiver in round 1 just because of the pedigree that comes with being a 1st round pick. There will be receivers at 48 that are just as good as receivers at 28; this year, more than others, will be about teams personal preferences regarding flavor, so great WR prospects will fall in round 2- just as they did last year 

Jeudy and Lamb are in a tier of their own. Julio/AJGreen level tier.

[jetskid007]

9 hours ago, DowNY said:

Jeudy and Lamb are in a tier of their own. Julio/AJGreen level tier.

I see them a tier below that, which is still fantastic, but point being the gap between them and the 10th receiver in the class is not even close to the gap you’ll see at other positions. 

Either way, what I’m driving is Factor 1: from a grade perspective, I don’t think they are consensus top 10 players in this class. I see them being between 8-14 in a vacuum. Factor 2: from a roster building/resource allocation perspective, investing heavy draft resources at WR isn’t necessary to develop a top tier passing attack... we’ve seen it time and time again. Factor 3: this is the deepest WR class ever. Ever. There are so many dynamic receivers in this draft it’s unreal. There will be guys that go in R3 that will be stars, possibly multiple. You can almost be sure that you’re getting a starting caliber player in round 2. They haven’t been in the spotlight, but as the draft nears you’ll hear more and more about how there are up to 10 WRs with legit 1st round grades, and there will be even more with day 2 grades. There should be a plethora of WRs with rookie starting caliber potential all the way through day 3 of the draft. 

On the flip side, there’s a narrative out there that this class is deep with OL, but I don’t see that at all. There are 4-5 truly dynamic blockers in this class, after that it’s very generic; you’ll be able to find a few plug-and-play starters in day 2/3, but not Quenton Nelson-level guys that you can build your OL around regardless of position. Guys that make the entire OL better. Becton, Thomas, Wills, Wirfs all have those dominant/dynamic traits regardless if they’re playing LT, G, or RT... not easy to gauge because there is no traditional stat to measure by, but those guys can open up you’re offense so much more than a WR can.

Obviously every player comes with a risk and some of these guys may not pan out, but I have 2 of those OL rated in a higher tier and the other 2 in the same tier as Lamb/Jeudy.
 

For me, Thomas and Becton have the higher bust potential but may also have the higher upside; really comes down to Thomas’s ability to refine his mechanics/how he responds to coaching and Becton’s ability to stay in shape- this year he lost 20 lbs and not coincidentally you saw a player with much cleaner/lighter footwork and a nimble player in pass sets. Wills and Wirfs will be rock solid starters in the NFL and have the athletic potential to be consensus top 25 lineman in the league year in and year out. Feel really good about them both as 10 year tackles on the right or left. 

 

[NJC33]

I hadn't thought of that, will be interesting to see if it effects how teams spend

[jetskid007]

3 hours ago, NJC33 said:

I hadn't thought of that, will be interesting to see if it effects how teams spend

I'd think teams will go back to using up the majority of their cap room, but they may not necessarily do so by dishing out guaranteed dollars. Instead, they'll bloat the base salaries and decrease the prorated bonuses. 

The carryover provision was such an interesting one that really helped some teams, but i don't think enough teams took advantage. Instead, cheap owners just kicked the can down the road and only spent "cash" when they had to (see 2017-2019 Raiders). 

[KingOfNewYork]

On 1/19/2020 at 11:30 PM, jetskid007 said:

Feels like a direct shot at the Jets/Bell

We have terrible cases of PTSD as fans lol. 

There are teams/schemes who have ideals in what they look for in players. 

We ran the Shanahan blocking scheme last year with Dennison coordinating our run game.

4th worst in YPC last year, tied for worst this year. 

 

[Bobby816]

On 1/18/2020 at 11:33 AM, jetskid007 said:

 

You're correct in that Ruggs is hands down a better receiver than that of Hamler or Reagor. That being said I think Hamler is quite a bit better than Reagor. But having hands means quite a bit for a WR. So I value that.

I was trying to compare WRs to this class. Not pros. But I can do that if you want. I see a more agile AJ Green in Higgins. Mike Williams doesnt have the agility of Higgins IMO. I dont think Higgins is as good of a prospect than AJ Green was (I think Jeudy and Lamb are though). Higgins is my 4th rated WR in this class.

Shenault for me like I said will have to go to the right team to succeed. Not sure Gase can make him worth a quality pick. He's a guy that I think will impress at the combine bc he is in that physical freak mold of that or Metcalf. Im not big on bumping guys up just bc of the combine. I do think it does solidify some things that my be questioned about a player. Shenault will have to prove himself at the combine and pro day. He IMO has all the tools. He's fast, agile, wins 50/50 balls, has a great feel for space and how to utilize it. He's just not a pure WR like the others. So his route running will be the biggest question with him. He has the physical skill set to do it. Its just if he can show it at the combine and pro day to convince teams. He's also a player I think OCs will love. The offensive game has become a lot of just get playmakers the ball and let them do work. He showed this at Colorado. So as I stated he will have to go to the right situation to succeed. If a team is just going to line him up at WR... he has the biggest chance to fail. He's my 6th rated WR.

Why do I have Jeudy as the 3rd best player in this draft? He's an elite route runner. Not just a good route runner. He's great with the ball in his hands, has great hands and has speed to go with it. An elite route runner at WR nearly always translates well to the NFL. Why do I have Lamb rated as the 4th best player in the draft? Great hands, good route runner and his best quality is tracking the ball down and using his body. Also things that transfer over great to the NFL. He's also incredible with the ball in his hands after the catch. Why is Jeudy ahead of him? route running and speed. Why is Ruggs my 3rd WR? Speed, hands and agility. Not going to be that Julio Jones type #1 WR. More of an Antonio Brown, Tyreke Hill type #1 WR.

Why do I like Jefferson as the 4th best WR? I see him a great guy that can do it all. I think AJ Brown when I think of him. He's a guy that I think does everything very good and has really no weakness. One of the safer picks in the draft. As you stated he has a great feel for sitting down in zones, which QBs love and it drives defenses crazy.

 

Like Ive said to you dozens of times... I want an OT in Round 1. So my elaborating on WRs and calling for them at 11 is under 2 circumstances. 1 is we big time address OL in FA and trades. 2 is that Thomas, Wills and Wirfs are all gone by our pick and one of Jeudy or Lamb are still there.

Heres my thoughts on the OT class...

Jedrick Wills: Probably my highest rated OT. Doesn't have a weakness in his game. Great size and strength. Technique is incredible in both the passing and rushing game. His only knock against him IMO is if he can move to LT. No big deal if he cant... Let him play RT. But you want that blind side protected. Doesnt mean he cant make the move. Its just the only thing I question about him.

Andrew Thomas: Not a lot of weakness in Thomas' game either. Has great size, strength, IQ for an OT. His power and his hips are feel for the game are his best traits. What are negatives about him. He's not that flexible and quick against the smaller speed rushers. He also has a hot head. Which isnt bad for an OLineman (kinda their mentality). But flags are never a good thing.

Tristan Wirfs: Might have the best feet of the 3 guys named. Great power and is at his bets when engaged with the defender. Wont lose many battles there. He like Wills has plays on the right side. Which will be tested if he can move to LT or if he's best served staying at RT. He also has the tendency to show some weakness against pure speed rushers that he cant get his hands on.

Mechi Becton: Physically he's a freak. He's massive and can move. Very rare to see a guy his size with his feet. Bc of this he has incredibly long arms which watching him use his hands is very fun in games. Negatives? He's raw. Bc he's so big he goes for the big hits on DE's. Sometimes leading to misses. His technique needs work. Has the potential to be the best OT in the class. But for me unlike the 3 above mentioned he carries some risk with him bc of his technique. He's a guy that throughout the draft process that can be put in that group of the 3 others mentioned that I would take before a WR in this draft. Maybe he big time cleans up some of his rawness and technique in the pre draft process.

 

This is where I see a talent drop off to more 2nd Rounders.

Prince Tenga-Wanagho: Very athletic, agile and long. His biggest knock is how raw he is and that he needs to add muscle to fill out a bit. Rather new to football, so he's obviously a raw talent.

Austin Jackson: A bit raw as well. Good agility and hands. His biggest knock for me is his strength. Seems like he will struggle with bull rushes until he can add some strength to his game. Epenesa had his way with him in the bowl game bc of this.

Josh Jones: Raw is the best way to put this guy too. But he oddly has a good amount of experience. He has the tools. Its just whether he can work on his technique to be good at the next level.

Trey Adams: Great size and very physical. Long arms and agile. His biggest knock is his injury history and doesn't have great bend while still being agile.

Lucas Niang: Played 2019 mostly injured with a hip. And thats really the only knock against him is his hips at times. I think him healthy might be a steal for a team in Round 2. Great athleticism, size, length and strength.

 

In summary if I had to make a big board just for us at this stage it would go something like this. (I assume Chase Young is gone by our pick).

1. Jedrick Wills

2. Andrew Thomas

3. Tristan Wirfs

4. Jerry Jeudy

5. CeeDee Lamb

6. Mechi Becton

7. Henry Ruggs

8. Tee Higgins

 

 

 

 

[jetskid007]

@Bobby816 Appreciate the time you took to respond, but again, all I'm reading is regurgitation of information I can go read from Matt Miller, except I'm not seeing you give any credit to the draftniks you pulled this from. Who are your sources?

This all started because of a disagreement over your feelings of passing on Jeudy, who you have rated as your 4th overall player, to trade down and acquire a 2nd round pick while also taking Mekhi Becton at 21, who you now have as your #6 favorite fit for the Jets... just behind Jeudy and Lamb... and label him the one player with the most potential of all the OTs??? Call me skeptical but not sure how you can go from being lukewarm on Mekhi Becton a week ago to having him 6th overall on "your" Jets board... only explanation is that you've been reading the google machine, which leads me to my biggest frustration: stop relying on mock drafts and #drafttwitter to develop an opinion on a player, watch the videos for yourself and express why the player is a great route runner. Explain why Laviska "has to go to the right team" other than pointing to college usage - what in his game tells you that he can't be a traditional X receiver? What tells you Ruggs can't be a do-all swiss army knife the way Laviska was used in college?

I don't care what you want - this isn't what I'm seeking to emphasize. You can want a safety in round 1 for all I care, but be able to back it up either by pointing to and crediting actual sources or by writing up a report on your own.  

I realize you have a life and don't expect you to send it looking so deeply into prospects, but don't claim actual knowledge or an informed opinion unless you have the ability to back it up. Pointing to "what you like" and "what you prefer" isn't fair, back it up... you're a mod and with that comes a higher standard; again, don't claim knowledge based on other peoples knowledge - develop your own subject matter. No shame if you can't - easy to talk draft and football and cite sources and whatnot - but claiming affinity for certain prospects by latching on to the "hot" name without providing anything substantive leaves a bitter taste. 

[Bobby816]

8 minutes ago, jetskid007 said:

@Bobby816 Appreciate the time you took to respond, but again, all I'm reading is regurgitation of information I can go read from Matt Miller, except I'm not seeing you give any credit to the draftniks you pulled this from. Who are your sources?

This all started because of a disagreement over your feelings of passing on Jeudy, who you have rated as your 4th overall player, to trade down and acquire a 2nd round pick while also taking Mekhi Becton at 21, who you now have as your #6 favorite fit for the Jets... just behind Jeudy and Lamb... and label him the one player with the most potential of all the OTs??? Call me skeptical but not sure how you can go from being lukewarm on Mekhi Becton a week ago to having him 6th overall on "your" Jets board... only explanation is that you've been reading the google machine, which leads me to my biggest frustration: stop relying on mock drafts and #drafttwitter to develop an opinion on a player, watch the videos for yourself and express why the player is a great route runner. Explain why Laviska "has to go to the right team" other than pointing to college usage - what in his game tells you that he can't be a traditional X receiver? What tells you Ruggs can't be a do-all swiss army knife the way Laviska was used in college?

I don't care what you want - this isn't what I'm seeking to emphasize. You can want a safety in round 1 for all I care, but be able to back it up either by pointing to and crediting actual sources or by writing up a report on your own.  

I realize you have a life and don't expect you to send it looking so deeply into prospects, but don't claim actual knowledge or an informed opinion unless you have the ability to back it up. Pointing to "what you like" and "what you prefer" isn't fair, back it up... you're a mod and with that comes a higher standard; again, don't claim knowledge based on other peoples knowledge - develop your own subject matter. No shame if you can't - easy to talk draft and football and cite sources and whatnot - but claiming affinity for certain prospects by latching on to the "hot" name without providing anything substantive leaves a bitter taste. 

Then have a bitter taste. I dont care. My opinions and rankings are my own and I broke down the players I have ranked high in positions of need for us based on their strengths, weaknesses and potential. This isn't the regurgitated opinions of an individual. Its me watching these guys and seeing what I like in them. Yes guys move up my board and guys move down. And they will continue to throughout the pre-draft process. And you're exactly right, I dont have enough time to sit down and watch every game film on each guy. But I have watched each guy (mainly highlights, games Ive watched of these guys and I watch a lot of live games) and have formed my opinion. Unless my job was to scout these guys you wouldn't be happy. Sorry I work full time as a boss for the US Government and have a family. So my opinions are actually really good for my lifestyle. You want to pick it apart that I dont write a novel each post about every prospect, go ahead. That might bug kids in their 20s on this board, but surely wont bug me a tiny bit. Back on topic... Does what I say about Jeudy fall in line with what A LOT of people think of Jeudy? Maybe. I dont care once again. Thats my opinion of him. For the record, I dont even have a twitter so I dont get opinions there. I watch games, highlights and breakdowns of players. Yes some do better jobs than others and sell you on guys. Some dont. Once again.. Im not Todd McShay that gets paid to breakdown game film on prospects for a living. Yes im a MOD. I didnt even want to be one, but they asked and didn't have any other volunteers. Ill gladly give it up, trust me. But there's no responsibility on my part to do more in depth research on things regarding the Jets than anyone who posts on here. My job (which obviously isn't paid) is to make sure the forum is active and everyone's respecting each other. Thats it. 

[jetskid007]

Quote

K'Lavon Chaisson - Edge

School: LSU | Year: Sophomore (RS)

General manager Joe Douglas is desperate to upgrade the OL, but in this scenario, the run at the position has already taken place. Chaisson is an outstanding athlete and would fit smoothly into the Jets' scheme.

Daniel Jeremiah posted his first mock today. He had 4 OL going in the top 10 (Mekhi Becton his top tackle coming off the board at #4), with the Jets passing on Lamb/Jeudy for EDGE rusher K'Lavon Chaisson. It's way too early to overanalyze, but worth noting as he's close with Joe Douglas and has been emphatic in saying that the Jets will not take a wide receiver in round 1, rather opt to take a player who impacts the LOS whether that be an OL or a pass rusher. 

FWIW, last time 4 OL went in the top 10 was in 2013 (no QB in the top 15 picks that year), so I think that one of them will be there for the Jets come draft day after free agency, trades, etc. Personally, I think the Jets will look to trade down if something like this unfolded as the Colts could look to jump LV for Love / DEN, MIA, PHI, BUF could all look to add one of the top WRs in the class. 

 

[rampantjet]

On 1/19/2020 at 11:30 PM, jetskid007 said:

Feels like a direct shot at the Jets/Bell

Seriously he can just plug anyone in after 1 question.  "Are you going to stick your foot in the dirt and run at the hole when my scheme gets it to appear?"  Yes?  Good your hired".

[jetskid007]

One thing that really annoys me is how misinformed the media can be. I keep seeing people trying to link Castonzo to the Jets, but it was only a few months ago that he said he’d either re-sign with the Colts or retire. What changed? It’s not like the Colts have a replacement and they have so much money they have to spend this year...

[KimuraGod]

10 hours ago, jetskid007 said:

One thing that really annoys me is how misinformed the media can be. I keep seeing people trying to link Castonzo to the Jets, but it was only a few months ago that he said he’d either re-sign with the Colts or retire. What changed? It’s not like the Colts have a replacement and they have so much money they have to spend this year...

I agree iv seen this a few times but as much as I’d love Castonzo I don’t think it’s even remotely possible.

Also to your above comment on DJ’s mock...how close are Douglas and DJ? How close have their paths crossed? Reason for this could be he’s been given info etc or maybe he’s doing Douglas a solid and mocking players/positions we have no interest in to help us in getting a player we want or for negotiating trades etc! 
 

I know first hand if I was a GM and had a good friend/former colleague in the media then maybe slipping a few white lies here and there might help me get the players I want?!

[jetskid007]

3 hours ago, xenajets said:

I agree iv seen this a few times but as much as I’d love Castonzo I don’t think it’s even remotely possible.

Also to your above comment on DJ’s mock...how close are Douglas and DJ? How close have their paths crossed? Reason for this could be he’s been given info etc or maybe he’s doing Douglas a solid and mocking players/positions we have no interest in to help us in getting a player we want or for negotiating trades etc! 
 

I know first hand if I was a GM and had a good friend/former colleague in the media then maybe slipping a few white lies here and there might help me get the players I want?!

They were scouts together in Baltimore. Joe wanted him for a high level front office role, but Jeremiah preferred to stay with NFLN (he followed up the tweet above with "To answer the next question-I'll be covering Chargers practice for NFL Network on Wednesday. I love my jobs (NFL Network & color for Chargers radio)."... he's turned down any request since. A lot of history between the two is reflected in this article: https://theathletic.com/935851/2019/04/22/scouts-life-how-daniel-jeremiah-went-from-the-20-20-club-to-nfl-network/

The white lie thing is possible, but mock drafts have become a thing of their own... it's all about credibility now. Besides, the GMs aren't going out of their way to tell anyone who they're taking - but Jeremiah knows how Douglas thinks and what he prioritizes from working with him, which is why you have to listen whenever he speaks. 

 

 

The other guy linked in the media is Todd McShay. He and Joe played on Richmond together and were roommates.

Edited January 23, 2020 by jetskid007