Matts4313 Posted April 19, 2020 Author Share Posted April 19, 2020 54 minutes ago, D82 said: Please God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted April 19, 2020 Author Share Posted April 19, 2020 8 minutes ago, Calvert28 said: Does this guy not realize we have Zeke? lol. I might try to look it up, but there were a bunch of articles last year about how if we ran with Zeke drives stalled at a much, much higher rate than if Dak threw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calvert28 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Matts4313 said: lol. I might try to look it up, but there were a bunch of articles last year about how if we ran with Zeke drives stalled at a much, much higher rate than if Dak threw it. We were also having a good run with other teams having not figured out our system. That won't be the case now with a full year behind them, we need to be fluid with how we call plays now since we have the talent to basically run w/e kind of offense we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted April 19, 2020 Author Share Posted April 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, Calvert28 said: Does this guy not realize we have Zeke? How first down runs "doomed" the Cowboys offense: https://sportdfw.com/2019/09/30/dallas-cowboys-first-runs-doomed-offense/ According to Sharpe statistics, Dak was 200% more effective than Zeke on first downs. Here is 538: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-called-a-run-on-first-down-youre-already-screwed/ From PFF for 2019: Zeke = 4.5 YPC on first down. Dak = 7.67 YPP on first down I dont know about you, but 2nd and 2.3 is much more attractive than 2nd and 5.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calvert28 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: How first down runs "doomed" the Cowboys offense: https://sportdfw.com/2019/09/30/dallas-cowboys-first-runs-doomed-offense/ According to Sharpe statistics, Dak was 200% more effective than Zeke on first downs. Here is 538: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-called-a-run-on-first-down-youre-already-screwed/ From PFF for 2019: Zeke = 4.5 YPC on first down. Dak = 7.67 YPP on first down I dont know about you, but 2nd and 2.3 is much more attractive than 2nd and 5.5. Most teams still expected Zeke on the run. You cut him off at the knees and let everyone know that its Dak and only Dak and see how successful he is. Lets be clear, he wasn't against the Rams in the playoffs and he failed to step up the pace when teams were out gunning us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted April 19, 2020 Author Share Posted April 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, Calvert28 said: We were also having a good run with other teams having not figured out our system. That won't be the case now with a full year behind them, we need to be fluid with how we call plays now since we have the talent to basically run w/e kind of offense we want. This would only be true if you actually believe teams stack the box more often against Zeke. The dont. Zeke is consistently around the #20 RB that faces stacked boxes. I remember vividly last year against Minny. Everyone all game: DAKS ONLY GOOD BECAUSE THEY WERE STACKING THE BOX!!! The next day the stats came out: They stacked the box on exactly *4* plays against Zeke. We ran on 58% on first down. League average is 52%. If we can just get to being an average team, that would be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted April 19, 2020 Author Share Posted April 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Calvert28 said: Most teams still expected Zeke on the run. You cut him off at the knees and let everyone know that its Dak and only Dak and see how successful he is. Lets be clear, he wasn't against the Rams in the playoffs and he failed to step up the pace when teams were out gunning us. There is absolutely nothing that supports this. Nothing. If there was, teams would be playing the run (stacking boxes) not the pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calvert28 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: This would only be true if you actually believe teams stack the box more often against Zeke. The dont. Zeke is consistently around the #20 RB that faces stacked boxes. I remember vividly last year against Minny. Everyone all game: DAKS ONLY GOOD BECAUSE THEY WERE STACKING THE BOX!!! The next day the stats came out: They stacked the box on exactly *4* plays against Zeke. We ran on 58% on first down. League average is 52%. If we can just get to being an average team, that would be amazing. What are you even talking about here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calvert28 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: There is absolutely nothing that supports this. Nothing. If there was, teams would be playing the run (stacking boxes) not the pass. Except they do and still do. Not as much as they used to now that Dak has a OC that's worth a damn but they still do. But relying on one player instead of using both to compliment eachother will open our offense up to easily being stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted April 19, 2020 Author Share Posted April 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Calvert28 said: Except they do and still do. Not as much as they used to now that Dak has a OC that's worth a damn but they still do. But relying on one player instead of using both to compliment eachother will open our offense up to easily being stopped. Zeke was ~20 under more in facing stacked boxes. Zeke was ~18 (IIRC) under Linehan in facing stacked boxes. Again, Zeke has never in his career faced a ton of stacked boxes. Unless you think the NFL is lying - its the next gen stat on their website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calvert28 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: Zeke was ~20 under more in facing stacked boxes. Zeke was ~18 (IIRC) under Linehan in facing stacked boxes. Again, Zeke has never in his career faced a ton of stacked boxes. Unless you think the NFL is lying - its the next gen stat on their website. Pretty sure we have been over this like a year or two ago but those stats are so freaking vague it's not even funny. I'm not going over this with you again. If you think it's so great relying on Dak so much, then where was the success we were supposed to have? I mean the Eagles made it to the playoffs without even having a secondary to play and Dak ran the most productive offense in the NFL. The first season where he was the central point of the offense and we were 8-8. Explain that one. You keep going on and on about his effenciency, and now that he had the incredible yards to add on to it not to mention two pro bowl caliber receivers, and all pro RB and an all-pro line 2 of whom made the all decade team. Why weren't we in the SB last year then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted April 19, 2020 Author Share Posted April 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Calvert28 said: Pretty sure we have been over this like a year or two ago but those stats are so freaking vague it's not even funny. I'm not going over this with you again. No we havent. How are they vague? 27 RBs faced a stacked box at a higher clip. Zeke faced a stacked bot 19.27% of the time. A stacked box is 8+ defenders in the box. Its a very simple and easy to understand stat: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#percent-eight-defenders 5 minutes ago, Calvert28 said: If you think it's so great relying on Dak so much, then where was the success we were supposed to have? I mean the Eagles made it to the playoffs without even having a secondary to play and Dak ran the most productive offense in the NFL. The first season where he was the central point of the offense and we were 8-8. Explain that one. You keep going on and on about his effenciency, and now that he had the incredible yards to add on to it not to mention two pro bowl caliber receivers, and all pro RB and an all-pro line 2 of whom made the all decade team. Why weren't we in the SB last year then? This is an incoherent "yelling at the sky" argument. There are a ton of reasons why a team can be 8-8 with really good QB play. Look no further than Brees breaking all sorts of historical records at 8-8. The QB is the single most important position. That is simply a fact. If we dont force the ball to Zeke we probably beat the Saints. 9-7 We dont force the ball to Zeke at the end of minny, we for sure win that game. 10-6 If our special teams doesnt bungle multiple games (including the Tavon no run back) we probably eek out another win. 11-5 None of those have anything to do with Dak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calvert28 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Just now, Matts4313 said: No we havent. How are they vague? 27 RBs faced a stacked box at a higher clip. Zeke faced a stacked bot 19.27% of the time. A stacked box is 8+ defenders in the box. Its a very simple and easy to understand stat: No it isn't because much like their splits they don't factor in other things and we have been over this as well. For example what ****ing DC is going to stack the box 40% of the time against Benny Snell? Or Tevin Coleman? It doesn't factor in what down it is, how many yards till the first, ARE THEY ACTUALLY CARRYING ON THOSE PLAYS. They do not state when that they actually carrying on those plays on that they have faced that many stacked boxes when on the field. It could just as easily be a 4th in 1 with a QB sneak or roll out or near the goal line where they don't even touch it. Just now, Matts4313 said: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#percent-eight-defenders This is an incoherent "yelling at the sky" argument. There are a ton of reasons why a team can be 8-8 with really good QB play. Look no further than Brees breaking all sorts of historical records at 8-8. The QB is the single most important position. That is simply a fact. If we dont force the ball to Zeke we probably beat the Saints. 9-7 We dont force the ball to Zeke at the end of minny, we for sure win that game. 10-6 If our special teams doesnt bungle multiple games (including the Tavon no run back) we probably eek out another win. 11-5 None of those have anything to do with Dak. 8-8 for Drew Brees. I guess that should prove my point. I'm just saying it's not a good idea to rely solely on one player to get the job done. That's how we have often gotten beat in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPJ Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Matts4313 said: How first down runs "doomed" the Cowboys offense: https://sportdfw.com/2019/09/30/dallas-cowboys-first-runs-doomed-offense/ According to Sharpe statistics, Dak was 200% more effective than Zeke on first downs. Here is 538: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-called-a-run-on-first-down-youre-already-screwed/ From PFF for 2019: Zeke = 4.5 YPC on first down. Dak = 7.67 YPP on first down I dont know about you, but 2nd and 2.3 is much more attractive than 2nd and 5.5. I hope we do mix it up more but saying were better off throwing because 2nd and 3 is better than 2nd and 5 is playing with numbers. Which QB doesnt gave a YPP higher than their RBs YPC. If that's the case, we shouldnt run at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted April 19, 2020 Author Share Posted April 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, Calvert28 said: No it isn't because much like their splits they don't factor in other things and we have been over this as well. For example what ****ing DC is going to stack the box 40% of the time against Benny Snell? Or Tevin Coleman? It doesn't factor in what down it is, how many yards till the first, ARE THEY ACTUALLY CARRYING ON THOSE PLAYS. They do not state when that they actually carrying on those plays on that they have faced that many stacked boxes when on the field. It could just as easily be a 4th in 1 with a QB sneak or roll out or near the goal line where they don't even touch it. This is all so easily explained. Sample size. Thats why I dont so much care that he is #27. Its more the 19% of plays. Look at other "work horse" and it all balances out. Derek Henry was 35% on 300 carries Sony Michel was 33% on 250 carries Fournette was 32% on 265 carries Cook was 24% on 250 carries RunCMC was 23% on almost 300 carries Cason was 21% on 280 carries Jacobs was 20% on 240 carries Zeke was 19% on 300 carries Compared to other bellcows, Zeke does not face stacked boxes at a higher rate. Sure, you can say the number could be skewed with those dudes carrying 100 times. But once you get in that 250-300 range, all of them have had the short/goalline/etc runs. Thats how law of averages works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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