Matts4313 Posted April 19, 2020 Author Share Posted April 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, CAPJ said: I hope we do mix it up more but saying were better off throwing because 2nd and 3 is better than 2nd and 5 is playing with numbers. Which QB doesnt gave a YPP higher than their RBs YPC. If that's the case, we shouldnt run at all. The point was that across the entire NFL every single team that throws on first down has more success than teams that run on first down. You cant throw on first down every play because the logistics of football dont allow that. But no team should be 50/50 (like we were). It needs to be closer to 60/40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calvert28 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: This is all so easily explained. Sample size. Thats why I dont so much care that he is #27. Its more the 19% of plays. Look at other "work horse" and it all balances out. Derek Henry was 35% on 300 carries Sony Michel was 33% on 250 carries Fournette was 32% on 265 carries Cook was 24% on 250 carries RunCMC was 23% on almost 300 carries Cason was 21% on 280 carries Jacobs was 20% on 240 carries Zeke was 19% on 300 carries Compared to other bellcows, Zeke does not face stacked boxes at a higher rate. Sure, you can say the number could be skewed with those dudes carrying 100 times. But once you get in that 250-300 range, all of them have had the short/goalline/etc runs. Thats how law of averages works. Quote ARE THEY ACTUALLY CARRYING ON THOSE PLAYS. They do not state when that they actually carrying on those plays on that they have faced that many stacked boxes when on the field. Again the play could still be a roll out with the QB in which the RB never touches the ball. They do not specifically state if they are running on those plays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPJ Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: The point was that across the entire NFL every single team that throws on first down has more success than teams that run on first down. You cant throw on first down every play because the logistics of football dont allow that. But no team should be 50/50 (like we were). It needs to be closer to 60/40. Should it? SF, Baltimore and Tennessee ran close roughly 50% of the time. How well did they do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted April 19, 2020 Author Share Posted April 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Calvert28 said: Again the play could still be a roll out with the QB in which the RB never touches the ball. They do not specifically state if they are running on those plays. What does that matter? I dont understand your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted April 19, 2020 Author Share Posted April 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, CAPJ said: Should it? SF, Baltimore and Tennessee ran close roughly 50% of the time. How well did they do? Baltimore is an exception to the rule. They have a RB at QB. Tenny went 9-7 and were much more successful passing than running on 1st. More yards, more 1st down, more TDs.... On 1/2 the attempts. Repeat what I just said about Tenny but 13-3 record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calvert28 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Matts4313 said: What does that matter? I dont understand your point. Meaning they are counting a play against a play in which they are not touching the ball. Which means the numbers are skewered. Zeke could touch the ball 350 time a year when rushing and play 900 different offensive plays. If they are counting the times he is on the field when the box is stacked but still not actually rushing the ball then it's not really Zeke facing the stacked box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPJ Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 8 hours ago, Matts4313 said: Baltimore is an exception to the rule. They have a RB at QB. Tenny went 9-7 and were much more successful passing than running on 1st. More yards, more 1st down, more TDs.... On 1/2 the attempts. Repeat what I just said about Tenny but 13-3 record. Again, what are you using to verify success? YPP and YPC? Because I'd you are then I would like to see what the numbers show for 2nd and 3rd down as well because your YPP should always be higher than YPC. Are these stats taking situational football into consideration? There should be a difference in play calling in 1st quarter vs 4th quarter. Do we have a big lead? Are we behind? Are you playing a poor run defense? A poor passing defense? All of the above matters and we shouldnt just have a one size fits all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyingmonkey30 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 Rumors floating that the Cardinals are shopping Christian Kirk and we might be interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPJ Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 27 minutes ago, flyingmonkey30 said: Rumors floating that the Cardinals are shopping Christian Kirk and we might be interested. Wouldnt mind Kirk. Just depends on the cost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted April 19, 2020 Author Share Posted April 19, 2020 10 hours ago, Calvert28 said: Meaning they are counting a play against a play in which they are not touching the ball. Which means the numbers are skewered. Zeke could touch the ball 350 time a year when rushing and play 900 different offensive plays. If they are counting the times he is on the field when the box is stacked but still not actually rushing the ball then it's not really Zeke facing the stacked box. 12 hours ago, Matts4313 said: Derek Henry was 35% on 300 carries => 590 Sony Michel was 33% on 250 carries => 420 Fournette was 32% on 265 carries => 904 Cook was 24% on 250 carries => 604 RunCMC was 23% on almost 300 carries => 1039 Cason was 21% on 280 carries => 723 Jacobs was 20% on 240 carries => 460 Zeke was 19% on 300 carries => 940 The edited in "=> ###" is the snap count So looking at it through this prism, Zeke could have drawn a box on ~180 plays. Where as someone like cook only did it on ~150 plays. Or Fornette would have done it almost ~300 times. It still backs up my point. Zeke does not faces boxes at the clip that Cowboys fans pretend he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted April 19, 2020 Author Share Posted April 19, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, CAPJ said: Again, what are you using to verify success? YPP and YPC? Because I'd you are then I would like to see what the numbers show for 2nd and 3rd down as well because your YPP should always be higher than YPC. It can be found on the PFR Splits page. Quote Are these stats taking situational football into consideration? There should be a difference in play calling in 1st quarter vs 4th quarter. Do we have a big lead? Are we behind? Are you playing a poor run defense? A poor passing defense? All of the above matters and we shouldnt just have a one size fits all. All of this balances out when you factor each team has ~1000-1200 snaps for the season. Basic statistical analysis would tell you after a couple hundred data points all of the variable are accounted for. At 1000+ data points, no set of anomalies should factor in heavily EDIT: As for one size fits all; sure. There are exceptions. When your QB is a crazy scrambler (like Lamar J) or is prone to throwing 5 INTs a half (Nathan P). But as a rule of thumb, NFL teams do better when they pass at roughly 60/40 on first down over the course of a season. Not 50/50 like we were. Edited April 19, 2020 by Matts4313 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WizardHawk Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 1 hour ago, flyingmonkey30 said: Rumors floating that the Cardinals are shopping Christian Kirk and we might be interested. What’s wrong with him that Arizona would spend a couple seasons developing, then cut bait? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SweetFancyMoses Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 58 minutes ago, CAPJ said: Wouldnt mind Kirk. Just depends on the cost. it would have to be a 2021 4th or later, or I'm not interested. I like the guy, but I'm fine with grabbing Hamler, Reagor, round 2 or later, and Hill, Bowden, Duvernay round 3 or later, and having them cheap for 4 years. I think Arizona is really gonna get low balled on compensation due to the great depth at wr in this draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calvert28 Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 58 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: The edited in "=> ###" is the snap count So looking at it through this prism, Zeke could have drawn a box on ~180 plays. Where as someone like cook only did it on ~150 plays. Or Fornette would have done it almost ~300 times. It still backs up my point. Zeke does not faces boxes at the clip that Cowboys fans pretend he does. No it does not. There is still no clear indicator as to whether they are facing that on the carries or just by being in the huddle. Extreme scenario but Fournette could have seen a stacked box while on the field and not even rush against it once. Again Coleman rushed into a box 40% of the time? What makes him so special? Where is the differential? The split that actually shows when they are touching the ball while seeing a 8 man box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SweetFancyMoses Posted April 19, 2020 Share Posted April 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, WizardHawk said: What’s wrong with him that Arizona would spend a couple seasons developing, then cut bait? Especially, after acquiring a true #1. You would think they would want to keep as much talent for their young qb. Maybe they are planning on taking Lamb at #8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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