soulman Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, WindyCity said: It's YAC. YAC is what tanked Mitch's numbers specifically yards per attempt. That and other issues as well but yeah. Mitch's accuracy as far as getting the ball to his guys on time or hitting them in stride has not been good so far. I assume college QBs throwing into much more open windows tend to get away with that whereas they can't in the pros. That's definitely an area where Mitch has not progressed and if he never does it will in all likelihood cost him his career as a starter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, soulman said: That and other issues as well but yeah. Mitch's accuracy as far as getting the ball to his guys on time or hitting them in stride has not been good so far. I assume college QBs throwing into much more open windows tend to get away with that whereas they can't in the pros. That's definitely an area where Mitch has not progressed and if he never does it will in all likelihood cost him his career as a starter. I agree it is on the QB as well. But Cohen's YAC went down 50% and he catches passes less than a yard from the line. The other guys did not help out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 9 hours ago, AZBearsFan said: That’s... not encouraging. If you look at the analysis Jonathan Wood did you see less difference between Mitch, Foles, and Alex Smith than you might believe exists which can be taken in a number of different ways. Foles and Smith's stats came after having had far more starting experience. One would be that Pace isn't wrong and that Mitch still has the upside to get better but how much better we don't know. The other would be that Mitch's ceiling is a guy whose good enough to win more often than he loses but he'll never be that top tier franchise QB either. He's never gonna be a QB who can put the team on his back and will them to win like others can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nads786 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 2 hours ago, WindyCity said: I think it is pretty clear Foles was our first choice. It looks like Cam or Dalton could have been had for a 4th and taking on less money than Foles. I get the appeal he knows the system, he just isn’t as good as those guys. Cam is not a QB for this system and Dalton is mediocre. Nick was my top QB minus the compensation. I think this is a good choice by the Bears. Nagy has a QB who can actually run his system without being confused. I think that was the critical issue last year. I'm excited to see what Foles can do. All he has to be is average (15-17th best QB) for us to get to the playoffs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 1 minute ago, WindyCity said: I agree it is on the QB as well. But Cohen's YAC went down 50% and he catches passes less than a yard from the line. The other guys did not help out. Does that reflect back on Nagy his schemes and his play calling? Why is Cohen catching passes there rather than downfield as he did more of in 2018? To be honest I saw an offense that was broken in far more ways than one and my conclusion was either you have the wrong players for the scheme you're running or as a HC you aren't scheming to the strengths of the players you do have. Fortunately Nagy seems to have recognized this and has set out to fix it by bringing in other top coaches. I'll give him credit for that and hope we see a much better offense in 2020. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 15 minutes ago, Nads786 said: Cam is not a QB for this system and Dalton is mediocre. Nick was my top QB minus the compensation. I think this is a good choice by the Bears. Nagy has a QB who can actually run his system without being confused. I think that was the critical issue last year. I'm excited to see what Foles can do. All he has to be is average (15-17th best QB) for us to get to the playoffs. I think you are over rating what Foles has done, outside of his playoff run. That is also with the best OL in the league or close to the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nads786 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Just now, WindyCity said: I think you are over rating what Foles has done, outside of his playoff run. That is also with the best OL in the league or close to the best. I think QB's play a role in avoiding sacks by pocket presence and getting the ball out fast. I think Foles will be adequate in that. I also expect the Bears to draft an OT in this draft. Mitch was pretty awful this past year and wildly inconsistent, I think we'll see a modest increase in offensive production from 29th to 18th. I don't think that is unrealistic to expect with Foles and some additional upgrades. With a defense that is likely top 10 to top 5, why can't we make the playoffs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 One thing I believe we should get over and let pass is that we gave up a pick for Foles as opposed to receiving a pick for our taking him off their hands. How often has that ever happened? Once, with Tannehill? IMHO that was more of a media drive fantasy than a reality. Let's look at the facts. JAX ate his entire $25 mil SB so he cost them $30.5 mil for one year in which he played 4 games. We get him for $15.125 mil plus a $500k per game roster bonus and a $250k workout bonus so $15.5875 mil in 2020. He also get another $5 mil roster bonus from us in 2021 whether he's here or not so we might look at that much like we would dead cap of which there is none. So it's a cap friendly deal for 2020 with an easily digestible $5 mil hit in 2021 if we release him. If he's our #1 in 2021 his cost is $20.625 mil provided he doesn't void his contract and just $20.750 mil in 2021 provided he doesn't void that year. In total it's just under $57 mil if he plays all three years under his current deal. That less than we offered Teddy B. Was that too much to pay along with a 4th round compensatory pick for a guy who was a SB MVP just three years ago? I guess it's a matter of opinion but if he plays as well for us as he has when in Philly we'll have gotten our monies worth. That's my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, Nads786 said: I think QB's play a role in avoiding sacks by pocket presence and getting the ball out fast. I think Foles will be adequate in that. I also expect the Bears to draft an OT in this draft. Mitch was pretty awful this past year and wildly inconsistent, I think we'll see a modest increase in offensive production from 29th to 18th. I don't think that is unrealistic to expect with Foles and some additional upgrades. With a defense that is likely top 10 to top 5, why can't we make the playoffs? I think Foles will guarantee you 2018 Mitch production. I am also not ruling out that Mitch could give you that as well. None of it matters if our OL sucks and our TEs are old and soft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 10 minutes ago, WindyCity said: I think you are over rating what Foles has done, outside of his playoff run. That is also with the best OL in the league or close to the best. Stuff like that is awfully hard to analyze in any meaningful way which is why no one does other than very subjectively. Once you start doing that then you might as well begin handicapping RBs, WRs, TEs, field position, and whatever else anyone can think of that contributes to the whole. His stats indicate he has an average release time but slightly above average pocket presence. He's been sacked 97 times in his career vs 1698 attempts so one sack for every 17.5 attempts and 1.67 sacks per game. We can live with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abstract_thought Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 50 minutes ago, WindyCity said: It's YAC. YAC is what tanked Mitch's numbers specifically yards per attempt. YAC is tied to QB performance year-over-year just like drops. Throwing with accuracy and anticipation are skills that translate to getting more yards after the catch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, soulman said: Stuff like that is awfully hard to analyze in any meaningful way which is why no one does other than very subjectively. Once you start doing that then you might as well begin handicapping RBs, WRs, TEs, field position, and whatever else anyone can think of that contributes to the whole. His stats indicate he has an average release time but slightly above average pocket presence. He's been sacked 97 times in his career vs 1698 attempts so one sack for every 17.5 attempts and 1.67 sacks per game. We can live with that. His OL had 4 All Pros on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, abstract_thought said: YAC is tied to QB performance year-over-year just like drops. Throwing with accuracy and anticipation are skills that translate to getting more yards after the catch. QB factors in. All Bears WRs also had a negative expected YAC score. Compared to the YAC leader Jimmy G who had everyone producing more than expected yards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abstract_thought Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, WindyCity said: QB factors in. All Bears WRs also had a negative expected YAC score. Compared to the YAC leader Jimmy G who had everyone producing more than expected yards. Expected YAC does not normalize or even account for the quality of the throw. If you have 2 identical plays and the only difference is a ball thrown on-target or a ball thrown off-target, the expected YAC is the same. But it's clear from watching football that the timing and quality of the throw significantly affects what the receiver can do after he catches the ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLCbear Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 11 hours ago, WindyCity said: My biggest fear is that Nagy will stubbornly stick to the “system” again. Half the offense can’t run it. Can agree here. I am more concerned about Nagy finding success than I am about Foles finding it. If Chase Daniel can come in slinging and look decent, imagine what Foles will be able to do. our passing game will be good to great ! and MT will forge ahead also.. .......now the running game??? this is where I lose faith in Nagy. our Oline has way more talent than what was displayed last season. I have never seen a worse output vs talent from a Bears Oline ever. firing oline coaches were first move Pace made. Nagy has to learn to run the football in order for him to 'be you' ha and make his offense work. after a "fully healthy" Cam and Bridgewater, who's play last season in relief of Brees could have been an anomoly or product of Payton genius, Dalton and Foles are fantastic proven options. Foles is MOST proven. Pace did very well QB is not an issue, now we must bring in a diff making lead Back or learn how to run the ball in first place... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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