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The NOT Too Early 2018 NFL Draft Thread

turtle28

By turtle28
in Washington Commanders

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Woz

Woz

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, oldman9er said:

So, let's say that Washington doesn't select a RB until early day 3.. and they select NT and IOL in the first 2 rds.

Which RB would you prefer.. if your choice was Nyheim Hines, Mark Walton, or Akrum Wadley? and why? 

oldman, let me preface this by saying that a lot of long timers around here already know: I am not a college scout nor do I even pretend to be. I don't have the ability to watch a guy in college and project him into the pros or even Washington's system. As such, I rely a lot on others' analyses and then think how their takes would fit in with our system.

With all that said, here's what I take away from the three gentlemen's NFL.com draft profiles

  • Nyheim Hines - of the three, the most explosive, but more athlete than football player? Was used as both a kickoff returner (potentially becoming a pointless skill if the kickoff goes the way of the dodo as I suspect it will in the next couple of years) and punt returner. Apparently, spent 2016 season mostly as a receiver, but has a lot of dropsies. High risk, high reward kind of pick.
  • Mark Walton - almost the anti-Hines. He's more a traditional three down-ish back. Hands out of the backfield sound a lot more reliable, but his speed and vision are in question. NFL.com's projection is James White, which isn't the worst back to get, but I wonder if it is that much different than what the Redskins already had.
  • Akrum Wadley - while NFL.com compares him to Marlon Mack, the description they give sounds like he would be Chris Thompson 2.0. Plus: "Premium athletic ability" ; Minus: "lacks frame to carry desired weight" ; Plus: "Improv ability in open field is star quality with tight-quarters footwork of a European soccer star" ; Minus: "Gets hung up in a state of stutter-steps and shakes if clearly defined point of entry isn't there"

 

So, on one hand, Walton would seemingly make the most sense for the Redskins as they need a solid power guy to get yards in early downs. On the other, given Gruden's predilections towards the run game, I wonder if Wadley would make more sense. It would be akin to a mid-2000s Eagles "run game" where flare passes to a Westbrook like player (whether that is Thompson or Hines) count as runs. Hines sounds like a major gamble, and I'm not sure I want a guy who kinda-sorta fits the game but isn't there yet.

None of these guys are going to set the world on fire, but a combo package might work. To that end, I guess I would go Walton (supposedly the hands are good enough, even if he's not going to be a lightning bolt), Hines (kind of hard to pass on 4.38 speed), Wadley.

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oldman9er

oldman9er

Posted
Posted

Alright, thanks for that feedback, Woz. 

I was surprised to read some of the.. interpretations in Hines/Walton. I watched some of their clips.. saw some stats. While I would also not pound chest as if some draft guru.. I first went into it looking at all of them as rotational RBs to not carry but share snaps with CT and Perine. 

My overall thinking is to not greatly push out CT or Perine by drafting RB early... while also getting real starter power for the trenches with the first 2 picks. (NT/IOL)

 

At first, I was all in with Walton, but then I really dug into Hines.. and started having visions not just of some gimmick, home-run hitter in space... but maybe a real Tyreek Hill 2.0.  More a RB weapon than WR.. but someone that can do both at times. Yet another target on the field with crazy mismatch speed. Hines looks like he has some impressive vision too. Will look for more of Walton too, as he easily looks faster than his 4.6 time at the Combine. 

Really didn't pay much attention yet to Wadley; just threw him in there to see the interest and assessment. Have to go back and look more into all of the day 3 guys. 

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Woz

Woz

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1 hour ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

Harrison Phillips anyone?

 

I like the idea that Pro Football Weekly had there, but it would have been nice if they had an image of just the 2018 possibilities (also, what was their best year perhaps?). So ... I guess I do it myself. I also added in 3SigmaAthlete's pSPARQ scores for these guys as well. For the PFW numbers (everything up to the "Sacks" category), the Rank values are amongst the 7 or 8 players in this particular set. For the pSPARQ values, they are ranked out of the whole of 3SA's set (currently 19 players ranked overall)

Player 40 YD Rank 10 YD Rank SS Rank 3-Cone Rank Vert Rank Broad (") Rank AVG TFL Sacks pSPARQ Rank NFL %
Harrison Phillips 5.21 7 1.79 7 4.50 3 7.28 2 32 2 103 5 1.21 7.5 115.5 6 62.4
Nathan Shepherd 5.09 5 1.77 6 4.53 5 7.50 5 31 3 112 2 1.04 4 116.4 4 64.7
Tim Settle 5.37 8 1.89 8 4.83 7 7.95 7 23.5 7 96 7 1.04 4 83.0 18 2.5
B.J. Hill 4.99 4 1.73 4 4.53 4 7.28 3 26.5 6 101 6 0.92 3.5 106.9 10 38.1
Bilal Nichols 4.95 2 1.72 3 4.49 2 7.45 4 30.5 4 112 3 0.75 5 N/A N/A N/A
Taven Bryan 4.98 3 1.68 2 4.48 1 7.12 1 35 1 119 1 0.60 4 137.6 1 97.1
Vita Vea 5.10 6 1.76 5 N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   0.46 5 N/A N/A N/A
Da'Ron Payne 4.90 1 1.66 1 4.71 6 7.58 6 28.5 5 107 4 0.27 1.5 114.5 7 59.7

 

So, Phillips is definitely intriguing from his collegiate numbers and above average athleticisim. Settle, as a pure NT, was surprisingly productive in college, but he's most likely not going to wow anyone on the field in the NFL.

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Woz

Woz

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5 minutes ago, HTTRG3Dynasty said:

@Woz He does include other guys like Vea and Payne.  Just check his thread https://twitter.com/Marcus_Mosher

Though I don't think he includes the year he's posting numbers for.

Oh, I know. I read the underlying article. My complaint was that he has a picture for "Elite Athletes With Great College Numbers," then one for "Elite Athletes with Average College Numbers," and then one "Subpar college numbers." All of which were comparisons against the entire database of DTs. What I wanted was a single image of all of the numbers for just the 2018 class. Which he didn't have ... hence my quasi-spreadsheet in my previous post.

As for years, the only one he seems to reference is Phillips' numbers are from 2017.

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A TRAIN 89

A TRAIN 89

Posted
Posted

JP Finlay, on his podcast, reported that if Minkah Fitzpatrick is available at 13, than he’s 100% the guy according to his sources. 

Dont hate it, especially with Breeland gone...but the obsession with Bama players is excessive. Please take BPA at a position of dire need/importance. Pretty please. 

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