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Coronavirus (COVID-19) - 3rd try

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30 minutes ago, mistakey said:

because i listen to experts in fields i am not an expert in unlike you.  there is no consensus on it yet, and if there was one, it would be "the seasonality wont do much to dampen the blow".  which again is still different than you saying that seasonality will be a reason that will soften the blow as you have many pages in this thread

"I dont pretend to be an expert"

"There is no consensus but when there is a consensus it will be..."

ok buddy

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27 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

This is more or less the stance that has to be taken right now.

Hopefully it is seasonal and hospitals, healthcare workers, people, the economy, et all can get a breather before things ramp up again in October, but there’s really no data to support that yet.

We can hope for the best, but need to be preparing as though it isn’t.

Tbh I think an argument could be made seasonality is a bad thing here

Because either way we are likely to be coming out of it in May / June

And yes things may spread more slowly over the summer... but very likely that just leads us to not be prepared when the next wave hits in November or December

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Just now, mission27 said:

"I dont pretend to be an expert"

"There is no consensus but when there is a consensus it will be..."

ok buddy

yeah thats just an aggregation of multiple expert analyses, of which i directly quoted two pages ago of where its at right now.  you post your experts i post the other experts.  so, how is that not not reaching a consensus.  the second part of that is actually admitting that you have a chance of being more right than i originally thought you were

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12 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

Would seasonality make much difference if everyone is locked inside?

I mean sort of in that when this virus spreads between domiciles its generally when people venture outside

But I think the seasonality point is more relevant to:

- How quickly will this spread in the US and Europe once lockdowns are lifted in May or June or July

- Are we going to see a major wave 2 next fall?

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 China is delaying sports from resuming, which will be a signal for all other countries to do the same. 

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We have a 3 person insurance office. We are deemed essential. We are working in office. I'm now the only person not sick. Yay.

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2 minutes ago, Heimdallr said:

 China is delaying sports from resuming, which will be a signal for all other countries to do the same. 

Effectively all US sports are delayed until at least June 10th anyway since that's the stay at home order end date in Virgina. 

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1 minute ago, mistakey said:

yeah thats just an aggregation of multiple expert analyses, of which i directly quoted two pages ago of where its at right now.  you post your experts i post the other experts.  so, how is that not not reaching a consensus.  the second part of that is actually admitting that you have a chance of being more right than i originally thought you were

The stuff you are quoting does not say 'we dont think there is any impact from seasonality' 

It says 'most of these viruses ARE seasonal BUT we dont know to what extent this one will be and either way it wont stop the virus alone'

That is literally exactly my position:

1. This is likely to exhibit some degree of seasonality because its a viral respiratory infection 

2. The pattern of the data does nothing to disprove that prior and if anything supports it

3. We dont know how seasonal it will be compared to the flu, or common cold, or SARS or MERS... all of which exhibit some degree of seasonality 

4. Regardless it wont stop the spread by itself

5. But seasonality could help in helping to slow the spread here and in Europe, with the double edged sword that we are likely to see a second wave next fall (which is basically what every public health expert including Fauci and Birks have said.  the fall wave is not because of magic.  its because these kinds of viruses get worse in cold weather!)

Some people are simply not intelligent enough to understand a nuanced opinion or understand what public health experts are saying and why tbh.  This isnt a yes no question.  But 'no' is the most wrong answer right now.  The only correct answer is 'probably yes to an unknown extent and it (alone) wont save us.'

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1 minute ago, mission27 said:

I mean sort of in that when this virus spreads between domiciles its generally when people venture outside

But I think the seasonality point is more relevant to:

- How quickly will this spread in the US and Europe once lockdowns are lifted in May or June or July

- Are we going to see a major wave 2 next fall?

Exactly.  For example, I'm a member of the Knights of Columbus, a fraternal Catholic organization.  So far, they cancelled our state convention, where we sell out a hotel in Ocean City MD with all of the people attending the convention, as well as spouses and family members.  I would say it's around 800 people attending this convention.  Maybe more.  All in close proximity with each other for a majority of the weekend.  Good call there.  

Then when the fraternal year starts again, there is training for council leaders where there are close to 500 people in a conference room for the weekend.  Then multiple leadership seminars around the state, regional meetings, district meetings and local council meetings.  That's not even counting events and other things at churches, council locations, etc.  I can easily see restrictions being lifted, and people going to these meetings and illness resulting.  

Add in that, in a majority of instances, many members of the Knights of Columbus fall into the high risk category due to age.  If we go back to business as normal too soon, and without enough information, too many people are put at risk.  

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1 minute ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Effectively all US sports are delayed until at least June 10th anyway since that's the stay at home order end date in Virgina. 

It doesn't mean that they can't adjust it to end earlier, though.  But that's not a good sign. 

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Posted (edited)

https://news.yahoo.com/top-foreign-affairs-republican-calls-182851384.html

Quote

“This is one of the worst cover-ups in human history, and now the world is facing a global pandemic,” Rep. Michael T. McCaul, Texas Republican and ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said last week. Mr. McCaul has said China should be held accountable for the pandemic.

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Edited by Outpost31

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4 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

It doesn't mean that they can't adjust it to end earlier, though.  But that's not a good sign. 

Yeah I agree

If this is on the decline in early May across the country which it likely will be, my guess is at least MLB and golf and potentially the NBA / NHL will work with the states and federal government here and in Canada on some way to resume play (very likely without fans)

It can be done with testing and would be a very positive thing for morale

Culture and importance of team sports in China is not the same as it is here and we're going to have a month or two more to mass produce reliable tests by the time we have to broach this issue 

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2 minutes ago, animaltested said:

The Washington Times?

Brah. 

Never heard of it. Read the first part of the wikipedia entry. That's a rough one.

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