mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, TLO said: I mean we called the peak here. Called the bottom in the market. Called that the NY hotspot likely originated from Europe, etc etc etc. I’d say our track record of being right is more important here tbh Actually predicted the CFR many weeks ago thats now been born out in every single study of a controlled population Called the seasonality way before Fauci or others would go that far Its actually pretty remarkable how much the MoL has gotten right here except when you consider we are always right about all sorts of things we know nothing about 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLO Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, mission27 said: Actually predicted the CFR many weeks ago thats now been born out in every single study of a controlled population Called the seasonality way before Fauci or others would go that far Its actually pretty remarkable how much the MoL has gotten right here except when you consider we are always right about all sorts of things we know nothing about As we said in our 2016 primary analysis, we believe everything can be predicted with great accuracy using smugness as the primary tool in our massive toolbox. We were right then, and we are right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 On April 12, 2020 at 10:03 AM, acowboys62 said: She having any luck? My step father and his business partner have had zero luck so far at any of their current banking relationships. Seems like the process is an absolutely mess. I get some exposure to this from the bank side because of my job but truthfully I have not paid attention to a lot of it as it is 99% just "corporate speak" in our calls and I am over that nonsense. The bottleneck is unfortunately what happens when you do not have the resources or the time to prepare for a surge this big. There's nothing that can be done that can fix this immediately whether through the private or public sector. It's just a matter of waiting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingseanjohn Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 (edited) @mission27 @TLO If Trump decides to "open up" the country sooner rather than later as he has hinted at, how do you think this will affect our score? Many experts have talked about a second wave in the fall or in 2021. Does this accelerate that or just drag out the first wave in your model? Edited April 13, 2020 by kingseanjohn can't quote the president to avoid squabbling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 @kingseanjohn I wouldn't even post the tweets. There's precisely zero informative content in them and it's just going to start the usual squabbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, WizeGuy said: May I ask what you do for a living? I've worked in drug development in various roles for 25+ years and I learned a little bit from a lot of smart people along the way. I know a little about a lot of things, but somebody like your charming bride knows a lot more than I ever will. I'm more of a generalist 21 minutes ago, WizeGuy said: 'll be asking you for advice every now and then when I find interesting stuff. Feel free to tell me to piss off if I become annoying! I'm always interested in learning more and you've linked interesting stuff. If I can share some of what I learned with others, its my pleasure I learn so much from others around here, its a small payback for everything they've taught me. ( football, finance, graphic arts, HR, travel, auto repair etc) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingseanjohn Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: @kingseanjohn I wouldn't even post the tweets. There's precisely zero informative content in them and it's just going to start the usual squabbling. You're probably right. Although I wouldn't say there was zero informative content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said: @mission27 @TLO If he decides to "open up" the country sooner rather than later, how do you think this will affect our score? Many experts have talked about a second wave in the fall or in 2021. Does this accelerate that or just drag out the first wave in your model? Clearly any move to lift the lockdown will increase R0 and lead to more cases. There will be future waves. Its a matter of degrees and the goal is to prevent out of control growth in the communities that threatens the stability of the healthcare system, by doing a lot of testing and contact tracing and isolating those who have been exposed Its sort of complicated because the testing rates are so low that I could see a situation where we see a big bump once we lift lockdown because our systems are working, i.e. we get to a point where we are catching almost every single case, rather than 1 in 10 or 10 in 20 that we're catching now. Personally I think the seasonality of the virus is one of the strongest arguments for lifting the lockdown sooner rather than later (maybe not May 1st, but between May and June beginning with less hard hit areas first) The testing and tracking has never been attempted on the scale that will be needed here. Eventually we will have to lift lockdown and learn as we go along. Better to do that in an environment where R0s are lower and falling due to seasonality and give us 6+ months before next flu season to learn and for people to get a little bit of a breather from the lockdowns. I'm worried if you play this super safe and don't lift lockdowns until cases are near zero in September or whatever you risk a huge seasonal wave hitting in October or November without knowing to what extent we can actually track and trace and people will be too exhausted from 6 months of lockdown to accept another one. Whereas if you try to lift lockdown in the near term yes there will be cases but the seasonality will help you and we'll have 6 months of experience with this system up and running before you hit the time of year where a true Wave 2 is likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057794v1 BMI of 40+. yikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 @kingseanjohn To answer more specifically how it would impact MoLs It depends on how its implementing, a responsible and gradual reopening with good tracing and testing should still result in flat or even falling MoLs for a period of time before they stabilize Note its impossible for MoLs to stabilize at 1 or 2 like where South Korea is. That would eventually lead to eradication. The stable, steady state MoL would be somewhere around a 5 or 6. That means you have about as many new cases as you do deaths + recoveries on a give day so the level of infection in the community is flat. What we want to see is MoLs in the very low single digits like 1 or 2 on the downslope of the wave and then never rising back above 5 or 6 (because that could indicate a true wave 2). Clearly in a country that is rapidly expanding testing capacity or a country like China with such low levels of reported cases per capita, you could end up with an MoL in the mid single digits that is still not concerning because it isn't widespread yet ,but its something to watch once you get into Tier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 2 hours ago, Nex_Gen said: There's more and more speculation COVID-19 had already made it's rounds in the US in December/January, particularly in California (with all the ties to Asia), as people seem to be recounting mysteries illnesses that couldn't be given a clear diagnosis and/or symptoms that completely coincide. Do you have a source for these speculations? Because I've heard something similar and they all trace back to a certain radio host and his conspiracy theory about why the infection rate is so low in CA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, mission27 said: @kingseanjohn To answer more specifically how it would impact MoLs It depends on how its implementing, a responsible and gradual reopening with good tracing and testing should still result in flat or even falling MoLs for a period of time before they stabilize Note its impossible for MoLs to stabilize at 1 or 2 like where South Korea is. That would eventually lead to eradication. The stable, steady state MoL would be somewhere around a 5 or 6. That means you have about as many new cases as you do deaths + recoveries on a give day so the level of infection in the community is flat. What we want to see is MoLs in the very low single digits like 1 or 2 on the downslope of the wave and then never rising back above 5 or 6 (because that could indicate a true wave 2). Clearly in a country that is rapidly expanding testing capacity or a country like China with such low levels of reported cases per capita, you could end up with an MoL in the mid single digits that is still not concerning because it isn't widespread yet ,but its something to watch once you get into Tier 1 "waves".... almost sounds like something a spatially diffuse advective PDE could model.... hmmmmmmmm, what idiot suggested that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, SlevinKelevra said: "waves".... almost sounds like something a spatially diffuse advective PDE could model.... hmmmmmmmm, what idiot suggested that? Go ahead and model it tbh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nex_Gen Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Xenos said: Do you have a source for these speculations? Because I've heard something similar and they all trace back to a certain radio host and his conspiracy theory about why the infection rate is so low in CA. My sources are probably as good as yours. I also don't want anyone here getting the idea that I truly believe this and am trying to beat it into people's beliefs. At the end of the day, I do think it's certainly a possibility based off of what I experienced myself, what I could back track and how this whole thing came to light. There are some articles you can find with a simple Google search, but nothing worth plastering on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Nex_Gen said: 14 minutes ago, Xenos said: Do you have a source for these speculations? Because I've heard something similar and they all trace back to a certain radio host and his conspiracy theory about why the infection rate is so low in CA. My sources are probably as good as yours. I also don't want anyone here getting the idea that I truly believe this and am trying to beat it into people's beliefs. At the end of the day, I do think it's certainly a possibility based off of what I experienced myself, what I could back track and how this whole thing came to light. There are some articles you can find with a simple Google search, but nothing worth plastering on the board. This seems like a really long way of saying Alex Jones. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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