Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[mission27]

2 minutes ago, Glen said:

Half seems bad

Spain and Italy seem to have been hit harder than the US overall (NYC are is a smaller percentage of US than Lombardy is in Italy)

Germany is clearly ahead of most places

I don't think the US is on top in testing but I don't think our testing is *way* worse like some seem to believe

[Shady Slim]

33 minutes ago, pwny said:

I fixed that chart to actually say what has been reported.

elite post and everyone who reads this page should like it

i know that in some places (cook county in chicago for example) the number of deaths for non-corona respiratory disorders has mysteriously spiked in this time so anyone trying to comprehensively prove the numbers are doctored to be higher than they are is selling you snake oil

[Glen]

Just now, mission27 said:

Spain and Italy seem to have been hit harder than the US overall (NYC are is a smaller percentage of US than Lombardy is in Italy)

Germany is clearly ahead of most places

I don't think the US is on top in testing but I don't think our testing is *way* worse like some seem to believe

What’s the basis of being hit harder?

Per capita infected at similar timelines? 

[mission27]

Just now, Glen said:

What’s the basis of being hit harder?

Per capita infected at similar timelines? 

So at this stage in the epidemic I'd say per capita deaths are probably a better metric to judge retroactively how hard a country was hit because its less impacted by testing (people who die are more likely to be seriously ill people who will get tests no matter what and those who die without getting tested are often counted if they die of COVID-like illness) 

Italy has 376 deaths per million, Spain has 428, Belgium 445, France 286, UK 215, we are only at 112.  We've likely had about 1/2 to 1/4th the cases per capita of some of these countries and have tested 1/2 to equal numbers of people.

Another good way to look at it is % of tests that come back positive... the higher the number the less widespread testing is likely to be:

South Korea - 1.9%

Germany - 8.2%

Italy - 13.9%

US - 19.8%

Spain - 20.5%

UK - 24.8%

France - 31.9%

We clearly aren't the best like a South Korea or even Germany but we're pretty much middle of the pack among developed countries imo.  We have a ways to go.  Then again, you have to remember Italy was around 19-20% as recently as a week or two ago so by the time we get to that point in the outbreak we may not be that far behind.

[naptownskinsfan]

40 minutes ago, Xenos said:

I get why they're protesting. And looking at it objectively, it feels weird that certain counties are locked down that have low infection rates. Though part of me wonders if it's because the preventative measure were the reason it was low to begin with. Of course, the only way to find out is seeing what happens when you reopen those parts. And as someone who is not in charge and does not have to make difficult moral decisions, I say go for it and see what happens.

I personally would've given some businesses a chance to stay open via social distancing and sanitization requirements, but that's just me.  We have a lot of federal and state government workers in the DMV area, but a lot of service employees.  Those are the ones who are having the problem right now, and it's across the country.  There is an absolute argument that preventative measures helped.  But there were also people ignoring them before they got to "stay at home" and that was the problem, and why non-essential businesses closed. 

[kingseanjohn]

Missouri is expecting a spike in the next week or two. It'll be interesting to see if that's due to more testing or something else.

[naptownskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said:

Missouri is expecting a spike in the next week or two. It'll be interesting to see if that's due to more testing or something else.

Wouldn't be surprised if it was the easter holiday.  I've also read some things about this starting on the coasts, and then heading inward to the interior of the country, with the second wave potentially hitting the coasts on a rebound.  It comes from those who are fleeing the hot spots and taking it with them.  Then the inverse would be true as people head back. 

[Glen]

41 minutes ago, mission27 said:

So at this stage in the epidemic I'd say per capita deaths are probably a better metric to judge retroactively how hard a country was hit because its less impacted by testing (people who die are more likely to be seriously ill people who will get tests no matter what and those who die without getting tested are often counted if they die of COVID-like illness) 

Italy has 376 deaths per million, Spain has 428, Belgium 445, France 286, UK 215, we are only at 112.  We've likely had about 1/2 to 1/4th the cases per capita of some of these countries and have tested 1/2 to equal numbers of people.

Another good way to look at it is % of tests that come back positive... the higher the number the less widespread testing is likely to be:

South Korea - 1.9%

Germany - 8.2%

Italy - 13.9%

US - 19.8%

Spain - 20.5%

UK - 24.8%

France - 31.9%

We clearly aren't the best like a South Korea or even Germany but we're pretty much middle of the pack among developed countries imo.  We have a ways to go.  Then again, you have to remember Italy was around 19-20% as recently as a week or two ago so by the time we get to that point in the outbreak we may not be that far behind.

Are those per capita deaths compared to figures right now or based on where the countries were at with similar timelines?

Based on my limited knowledge it seems as if deaths in America are still rising. Thus down the line will impact the per capita death rate.

Where(again limited knowledge) Italy/Spain death totals are dropping at this current stage. But overall have had more time to accumulate deaths thus the per capita looks worse(comparative to the US). Where as they’ve just had more time with the virus than we have.

Edited April 18, 2020 by Glen

[Glen]

Also a point I mentioned earlier about non highly infected areas. We’ve seen cities at this time get hit the hardest.

But over time it’s possible rural America will get hit if restrictions are lightened up too early.

America compared to the likes of Italy/Spain would make sense as to not at this moment see the same per capita death rates. Just due to the sheer distance the virus would need to travel. Where with those other countries mentioned are much smaller in comparison.

Would be interested to see the numbers compared to a country as broad/large as us. Also compared to the same timeline, not based on current figures, given they may have been hit a full month prior to us, if not more.

[naptownskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Glen said:

Also a point I mentioned earlier about non highly infected areas. We’ve seen cities at this time get hit the hardest.

But over time it’s possible rural America will get hit if restrictions are lightened up too early.

America compared to the likes of Italy/Spain would make sense as to not at this moment see the same per capita death rates. Just due to the sheer distance the virus would need to travel. Where with those other countries mentioned are much smaller in comparison.

Would be interested to see the numbers compared to a country as broad/large as us. Also compared to the same timeline, not based on current figures, given they may have been hit a full month prior to us, if not more.

Being in a more rural place (it scales for me, but I live in the suburbs and also am familiar with more rural areas) and I really think that big events, conventions, concerts, sporting events and churches will be the way these places are heavily infected, provided businesses maintain some types of social distancing strategy and are working on thier sanitization.  That part is key.  We had a person get Covid at our work and was diagnosed officially 9 days ago.  She was the only person to get it, and I really credit us being on top of handwashing and sanitization.  The minute businesses relax on that, we're going to have a problem.  

[Glen]

Italy has a population density of 532 per square mile.

New York has a population density of 416.

Italys per capita rate is 376 per million you mentioned(I’ll take your word on that)

New York’s is 700(Ish) if my math is right.

Granted New York has been hit the hardest. As well as having on of the densest populations in the world in NYC.

But I’m just trying to see if you’re looking at all the facts & making sure you think through every avenue before making your mole list

[Glen]

6 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said:

Being in a more rural place (it scales for me, but I live in the suburbs and also am familiar with more rural areas) and I really think that big events, conventions, concerts, sporting events and churches will be the way these places are heavily infected, provided businesses maintain some types of social distancing strategy and are working on thier sanitization.  That part is key.  We had a person get Covid at our work and was diagnosed officially 9 days ago.  She was the only person to get it, and I really credit us being on top of handwashing and sanitization.  The minute businesses relax on that, we're going to have a problem.  

I think the biggest thing businesses can do at the moment is to allow all who can work from home the chance to do so.

If your job is unable to be done at home then businesses should be given the proper PPE to stay safe, and even further given the resources to hire professional cleaners to make sure the environment is safe.

Restaurants/Bars/Large gathering areas should still remain closed to the public for gathering/socializing as well.

[bucsfan333]

5 minutes ago, Glen said:

Italy has a population density of 532 per square mile.

New York has a population density of 416.

Italys per capita rate is 376 per million you mentioned(I’ll take your word on that)

New York’s is 700(Ish) if my math is right.

Granted New York has been hit the hardest. As well as having on of the densest populations in the world in NYC.

But I’m just trying to see if you’re looking at all the facts & making sure you think through every avenue before making your mole list

New York is also the landing place for flights on the east coast.

Funneling all that travel through one spot is not great when stuff like a worldwide pandemic happens.

[naptownskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Glen said:

I think the biggest thing businesses can do at the moment is to allow all who can work from home the chance to do so.

If your job is unable to be done at home then businesses should be given the proper PPE to stay safe, and even further given the resources to hire professional cleaners to make sure the environment is safe.

Restaurants/Bars/Large gathering areas should still remain closed to the public for gathering/socializing as well.

I agree with all of those as well.  

[Glen]

1 minute ago, bucsfan333 said:

New York is also the landing place for flights on the east coast.

Funneling all that travel through one spot is not great when stuff like a worldwide pandemic happens.

They were doomed to get hit the hardest for a multitude of reasons. This being another of them.

They don’t represent the entirety of the US, but they were the start. And slowly the virus has been spreading to middle America & cases are rising in those areas.

I would just say it’s too early/disingenuous to say that we haven’t been hit as hard as other counties with a smaller population but higher population density, when America as a whole seemingly has not hit its collective peak/on its way down.