Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[acowboys62]

5 hours ago, ET80 said:

...populated by people who don't have a clue about football, mind you. If I can't trust a thread in General, why should I trust literally any single thread in this forum? Football is supposed to be our thing and we (collectively as well as individually) can't even get THAT right.

We're idiots, surrounded by idiots. If we can all agree to that, life goes on easier.

In closing, I would like to quote the great Det. Alonzo Harris from Training Day:

"...This is a newspaper, right? It's 90% bull ****. But, it's entertaining. That's why I read it, it entertains me."

That's why I read the MoLs. It entertains me.

Quote of 2020. 

[acowboys62]

4 hours ago, mission27 said:

The format rams is suggesting is similar to how academic research is presented. 

You have basically an executive summary (the abstract), then all of the data presented without commentary, then your findings (i.e. commentary). 

This is a fine and appropriate format for what it is but is not super helpful for your casual reader who doesn't have the patience or desire to read through a long document and cross reference various sections.  And frankly, many people have complained that our work looks too much like academic research.  So complaining now that we aren't presenting it like academic research seems a bit far fetched.  But I can accept that this is the world rams comes from and the way he prefers to look at things. 

We are presenting it in a format more similar to a blog post, data journalism article, or (shocker) an internet forum post.  Its also similar to how data is presented in a business and finance setting, the world where TLO and I come from.  I think its a lot more digestible for the average person than formal academic research.  But because its clear some are confused by this I will add a box at the top of the MoL clearly spelling out how the data is calculated and make it clear that the commentary is based both on the numbers and other factors. 

I would be curious to know how many of those who see it for what it is vs those who have a problem with it have these backgrounds.  I have a finance/CRE background and what you guys put up looks exactly like how we do most work. There is a time and a place for the presentation formats but for 90% of the work that gets done, its quick and dirty and reader needs to interpret what is going on...or question it if it does not make sense. To be honest though, I can't get right with the T-Swift.

[acowboys62]

1 hour ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Ah ok.  I though this was a trip all over town for over a giant bag of gummy bears or some ish.

Can someone explain to me why TP was returnable in the first place and no stores are not allowing it?  What exactly is the reason for returning TP?  "Product doesn't work and my hand is now covered in ****?"

[acowboys62]

14 minutes ago, mistakey said:

Yes.  

Yea just seeing that now...ever get an answer?  But even taking that away, your anger clearly was kicked off before that comment, was there others earlier in the thread? 

[acowboys62]

27 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Wisconsin is (may be? - we don't know if any stay at home orders can be enforced). 

My point - and you're reading the thread so you'll get there - is that I think MoL would be smarter to divorce their personal opinions from their metric so that it is clear to the reader what they are thinking/opining on versus what the MoL score might say.

Got there.  

With regards to Wisconsin, are businesses opening with no restrictions in place?  While I am not for continued lock downs and all that jazz, anyone opening up without proper safety protocols and guidelines in place is just dumb and if/when they get sick I really wish they would be at the back of the line for care. 

I see what you are saying, so your issue is having the data (regardless of what you think of it) posted along side their own personal opinions gives the impression of guidance vs opinion.  I personally don't agree with that, but glad to understand now.  

[acowboys62]

17 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Not the epidemiology world, which is what matters here.

I know nothing of that world so I defer to you, but I believe your comment was in regards to public policy and it is not necessarily true (or at least most of us can't say for fact) if a states public policy is or is not being driven by the epidemiology world, the public pressure, the political game, etc. So I think in this case, it is very likely that there are public policies being determined by backwards looking figures and not so much forward looking figures but rather "preparing" for the spike.

Also, not directed to you specifically, but in general, NJ has stopped showing hospitalization rates as much as they were (this is the only bit of data I think is relevant to opening back up).  Anyone else seeing this in their respective states?  

[ramssuperbowl99]

Just now, acowboys62 said:

Got there.  

With regards to Wisconsin, are businesses opening with no restrictions in place?  While I am not for continued lock downs and all that jazz, anyone opening up without proper safety protocols and guidelines in place is just dumb and if/when they get sick I really wish they would be at the back of the line for care. 

I see what you are saying, so your issue is having the data (regardless of what you think of it) posted along side their own personal opinions gives the impression of guidance vs opinion.  I personally don't agree with that, but glad to understand now.  

I don't know about outside Dane County (Madison), but my county put restrictions in. It's kind of assumed they'd be thrown out by the Supreme Court, so I'm not sure if they'd even really be strictly enforced. It's all a grey area.

 

More generally where my stance on this comes from is that had the MoL score been used more predictively, this becomes a bigger deal. When you're making a model of something, you need to be transparent about what the question you're trying to answer was (because that's going to explain the assumptions you make along the way, why the focus is where it is, and imply limitations, etc.), so the MoL's very general goals would become a much bigger problem.

[ramssuperbowl99]

1 minute ago, acowboys62 said:

I know nothing of that world so I defer to you, but I believe your comment was in regards to public policy and it is not necessarily true (or at least most of us can't say for fact) if a states public policy is or is not being driven by the epidemiology world, the public pressure, the political game, etc. So I think in this case, it is very likely that there are public policies being determined by backwards looking figures and not so much forward looking figures but rather "preparing" for the spike.

Assuming states are using CDC guidance, that is coming from the epidemiology world.

[mission27]

36 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Assuming states are using CDC guidance, that is coming from the epidemiology world.

The guidance from the federal government / CDC is pretty high level and there's a ton of room for interpretation in how you apply it.  So from that perspective I do think think the other **** comes into play a bit unfortunately... or fortunately I guess, because its nice to live in a democracy where people's diverse opinions are respected.

For example a big part of the federal guidelines is the 14 days of declining cases.  But of course cases and reported cases are different.  If you're a state that's significantly ramped up testing over the past few weeks, you might have reported cases going up but based on other indicators (such as hospitalizations) you could be pretty confident that in actuality cases continued to decline over that period.  What you do with the conflicting information is going to depend on a lot on politics and public pressure on either side. 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

50 minutes ago, acowboys62 said:

Can someone explain to me why TP was returnable in the first place and no stores are not allowing it?  What exactly is the reason for returning TP?  "Product doesn't work and my hand is now covered in ****?"

Idk but I’m glad these hoarding jerks are stuck with a lifetime supply of TP because they wanted to take advantage of people in a rough time.

I hope they feel like a moron every time they look at their massive stack of it.

[mission27]

Just now, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Idk but I’m glad these hoarding jerks are stuck with a lifetime supply of TP because they wanted to take advantage of people in a rough time.

I hope they feel like a moron every time they look at their massive stack of it.

I mean its not perishable lol I dont see why someone couldnt use and or sell it 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

16 minutes ago, mission27 said:

I mean its not perishable lol I dont see why someone couldnt use and or sell it 

Oh they definitely can, but it doesn’t exactly go quickly.

Sell it if you want, but who’s buying TP on the streets for retail?  

[ramssuperbowl99]

10 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Oh they definitely can, but it doesn’t exactly go quickly.

Sell it if you want, but who’s buying TP on the streets for retail?  

You gotta go door to door.

[kingseanjohn]

Quote

Today, the Big Cities Health Coalition (BCHC) released estimates that show that early actions by BCHC members, leaders from America’s largest metropolitan health departments, to get the public to stay home led to an estimated 2.1 million hospitalizations avoided and over 200,000 lives saved. These estimates, based on 45-day shelter-in-place/stay-at-home orders, were calculated by the Urban Health Collaborative at Drexel University’s Dornsife School of Public Health using a model published by The New York Times.

Source

There's a breakdown by city as well in the press release.

[Nazgul]

Page 420 boys! We made it.