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Draft Busts

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23 minutes ago, VanS said:

JK Dobbins looks like one of the safest prospects in the draft to me.  I have him as the #1 RB in this class.  I see very little bust factor in his game outside of injuries which are hard to predict.  I also like Kenneth Murray and Yetur Gross-Matos.  Murray is the best linebacker after Isaiah Simmons to me.  And I have Gross-Matos as the top DE prospect projected to go in the first round. 

I agreed with this post until the end. Your reasoning for not liking Chase Young or Joe Burrow are all-time bad takes. 
 

I would love to hear why you think the top 3 WRs are going to bust.

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14 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

I agreed with this post until the end. Your reasoning for not liking Chase Young or Joe Burrow are all-time bad takes. 
 

I would love to hear why you think the top 3 WRs are going to bust.

Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb have no outstanding physical traits.  They're not really that tall or athletic.  Both are mediocre physical talents at the WR position and I don't really like to draft WRs high in the draft that lack elite physical tools.  If I'm looking for another DeAndre Hopkins I'll just take him in the 2nd round like the original DeAndre Hopkins.  Henry Ruggs is incredibly fast but he lacks size and I'm not that enamored with his route running.   When it comes to elite WRs I look for size, athleticism, and instincts.  There's no receiver in this draft that checks all those boxes.  The closest is Tee Higgins but his lack of top-end athleticism scares me.

With regard to Joe Burrow and Chase Young I've made my concerns with them repeatedly.  I think Joe Burrow's 2018 season might be more indicative of his talent level than his 2019 season.  And when it comes to Chase Young I don't think he's a good enough athlete to warrant the hype he's getting.  His tape never impressed me much either.  I just don't get what everyone else sees in him.  I see a pretty stiff unexplosive pass rusher.

 

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4 minutes ago, VanS said:

Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb have no outstanding physical traits.  They're not really that tall or athletic.  Both are mediocre physical talents at the WR position and I don't really like to draft WRs high in the draft that lack elite physical tools.  If I'm looking for another DeAndre Hopkins I'll just take him in the 2nd round like the original DeAndre Hopkins.  Henry Ruggs is incredibly fast but he lacks size and I'm not that enamored with his route running.   When it comes to elite WRs I look for size, athleticism, and instincts.  There's no receiver in this draft that checks all those boxes.  The closest is Tee Higgins but his lack of top-end athleticism scares me.

I don’t think you’re familiar with the success of WR’s that aren’t 6’3 and run a 4.3. Your criteria for a great WR prospect is hilarious. You can’t knock Jeudy and Lamb for not being fast enough and then knock Ruggs for his route running despite his freak speed. I have no idea what you expect a WR to be. 

4 minutes ago, VanS said:

With regard to Joe Burrow and Chase Young I've made my concerns with them repeatedly.  I think Joe Burrow's 2018 season might be more indicative of his talent level than his 2019 season.  And when it comes to Chase Young I don't think he's a good enough athlete to warrant the hype he's getting.  His tape never impressed me much either.  I just don't get what everyone else sees in him.  I see a pretty stiff unexplosive pass rusher.

You are literally the only person in the world that holds this viewpoint. You are aware of that, right? Like, literally nobody thinks Young is an unathletic stiff pass rusher. 

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10 minutes ago, VanS said:

Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb have no outstanding physical traits.  They're not really that tall or athletic.  Both are mediocre physical talents at the WR position and I don't really like to draft WRs high in the draft that lack elite physical tools.  If I'm looking for another DeAndre Hopkins I'll just take him in the 2nd round like the original DeAndre Hopkins.  Henry Ruggs is incredibly fast but he lacks size and I'm not that enamored with his route running.   When it comes to elite WRs I look for size, athleticism, and instincts.  There's no receiver in this draft that checks all those boxes.  The closest is Tee Higgins but his lack of top-end athleticism scares me.

The original DeAndre Hopkins was a first round pick. Here's a list of the WRs who posted 1000+ yards last year. You tell me which ones meet your standard for tall and athletic enough:

http://pfref.com/tiny/At1ON

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I can see where VanS is with WRs and I actually agree in the sense that outside of the unicorn Julio/CJ types, I don't want to draft one in the top 10/elite tier of prospects. I do think that WR is currently the most overvalued position in the NFL and much more a roll of the dice in the draft than given credit for. I treat them kind of like RBs in that way. That said, I do like the WRs up top in this draft a lot, I just probably wouldn't draft them until the teens after the rest of the blue-chippers are taken.

 

 

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1 hour ago, BleedTheClock said:

I don’t think you’re familiar with the success of WR’s that aren’t 6’3 and run a 4.3. Your criteria for a great WR prospect is hilarious. You can’t knock Jeudy and Lamb for not being fast enough and then knock Ruggs for his route running despite his freak speed. I have no idea what you expect a WR to be. 

We're talking about using a high 1st round pick on a dependant position.  Even the great Randy Moss was rendered ineffective when he played with no QB on the Raiders.  If I'm going to take a WR high in the 1st round then he better be Julio Jones or AJ Green physically.  If not, then I'll take an equivalent athlete in the 2nd or 3rd round and have my great QB make him another Davante Adams.

1 hour ago, BleedTheClock said:

You are literally the only person in the world that holds this viewpoint. You are aware of that, right? Like, literally nobody thinks Young is an unathletic stiff pass rusher. 

That's fine with me.  I was also the only person I know advocating for Lamar Jackson to be the 1st overall pick in the 2018 draft because of how impactful his athleticism would be in the NFL early on.  I'm more than fine with being on an island by myself on this one.

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1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

The original DeAndre Hopkins was a first round pick. Here's a list of the WRs who posted 1000+ yards last year. You tell me which ones meet your standard for tall and athletic enough:

http://pfref.com/tiny/At1ON

End of the 1st round/2nd round is essentially the same.  My point is that the only WR I'm taking high is one that checks all the boxes like Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green, etc.

You should know by now I don't care for stats.  Especially passing/receiving stats in the new pass happy NFL.  I view the WR position as a dependant position so I don't give much stock to their statistical production anyways.  I look instead for guys with game changing ability.  The type that take a short 5 yard pass 80 yards for a TD.  Or the type that will win 50/50 balls down the field for big plays.  A receiver like Michael Thomas for example who is just catching 10 yard routes doesn't impress me regardless of how much statistical production he accumulates.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, VanS said:

We're talking about using a high 1st round pick on a dependant position.  Even the great Randy Moss was rendered ineffective when he played with no QB on the Raiders.  If I'm going to take a WR high in the 1st round then he better be Julio Jones or AJ Green physically.  If not, then I'll take an equivalent athlete in the 2nd or 3rd round and have my great QB make him another Davante Adams.

That's fine with me.  I was also the only person I know advocating for Lamar Jackson to be the 1st overall pick in the 2018 draft because of how impactful his athleticism would be in the NFL early on.  I'm more than fine with being on an island by myself on this one.

Your delusion knows no bounds. You anointed Josh Allen the next Dan Marino and said he was the best player in the draft, not Lamar Jackson. And taking Lamar Jackson #1 isn’t going to be a long-term good take. 
 

And do we really need to dig up your epic failures to prove to you that you’re not the Nostradamus of the draft? Telling people about the 1-2 wild predictions you had coming true doesn’t mean anyone here respects your “analysis.”  Have fun on your island. 

Edited by BleedTheClock

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PFF's busts/not living up to billing and explanations;

 

K'Lavon Chaisson and Mekhi Becton - both shouldn't be first round picks. Data just points to too much risk for 1st round. Similar stories in sick athletic traits which push them up for the board, over on-field production. Can see why they're mocked 1st round, when you watch them it's incredible - speed to power, destroying players etc, if you look at their top 10 plays they look amazing....but grades just don't match it for all plays.

Chaisson - 43rd in pass rushing. For a player with such incredible explosion and the ability to convert that explosion to power, why is the production so low despite having the tools in the toolbox to dominate?

When you add to the mix the other first-round caliber offensive tackles, Becton looks like even more of a risk. Players such as Georgia’s Andrew Thomas, Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs, Alabama’s Jedrick Wills and Houston’s Josh Jones were all much cleaner pass protectors at the college level

 

Yetur Gross Matos - Same story as with Chaisson, lack of actual production relative to how good he looks in his top 10 plays. Only 38 pressures. They say he should be taken over Chaisson, but still isn't worth a high pick or maybe even a 1st round pick.

 

Justin Herbert - Gets panicky. Being able to show poise and avoid mistakes when under duress is a vital trait to have. In Herbert’s case, you could see panic when any type of pressure was coming his way, which led to a lot of errant throws

 

Jordan Love -  Love led the country in QB-fault incompletions when throwing to a tight window (nearly two-and-half times more than Burrow). He’s also been a below-average quarterback when under pressure. When throwing into a tight window, Love was well below-average and had an FBS-high 15 interceptions en route to a PFF grade that barely cracked the 25th percentile among FBS quarterbacks. 

Love may have won over some hearts against Kent State's 113th-ranked defense in the Tropical Smoothie Café Frisco Bowl to close out the season, but he failed to come up big in the true spotlight against Power-5 competition.

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Mekhi Becton. His PFF pass pro ratings are abysmal, and I don't trust a guy who comes into the combine at 364 with those major weight and build issues.

Delpit. I think he's got major issues with effort, questionable at best angles, and just all around "willingness" to do a lot. Don't get me wrong, the talent is there, but I just don't think that I'd take him in the 1st Round.

Justin Herbert. I see the talent/flashes, but I don't think that the film and production matches the talent. He may be successful, but it will have to take the right supporting cast/team, and he's still very raw.

 

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9 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Mekhi Becton. His PFF pass pro ratings are abysmal, and I don't trust a guy who comes into the combine at 364 with those major weight and build issues.

I get the first part, but what weight/build issues are you talking about? He came in to the combine remarkably fit. His weight distribution is absurd. From a distance he looks like he weighs 300 lbs, he carries the weight very well.

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14 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

I get the first part, but what weight/build issues are you talking about? He came in to the combine remarkably fit. His weight distribution is absurd. From a distance he looks like he weighs 300 lbs, he carries the weight very well.

I completely disagree. Anyone at 365 has 20-30 pounds to lose, "fit" or not. Plus, I'm not worried about 365 now, but rather what he'll look like in 3-5 years. Throw in how that weight will likely result in lower body injuries, which is something in his past already, and his build is a major red flag and concern.

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Busts for me

1. Barrow i just don't see bengals putting right players around him to succeed long term. 

2. Tau that hip scares me alot he could be great if healthy i just don't know. 

3. Kinlaw his motor scares me. 

4. Becton that weight scares me its alot to carry long term plus film isn't great will get drafted high for his potential i just dont see him reaching it.  

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12 minutes ago, Aussie9er said:

Busts for me

1. Barrow i just don't see bengals putting right players around him to succeed long term. 

2. Tau that hip scares me alot he could be great if healthy i just don't know. 

3. Kinlaw his motor scares me. 

4. Becton that weight scares me its alot to carry long term plus film isn't great will get drafted high for his potential i just dont see him reaching it.  

Barrow and Tau...you been on the VBs this evening haven't you ;)

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