Who Rises? Who Falls?

[AZBearsFan]

Draft is almost here. Thank God.

Who do you guys see as the guys who will be picked way above or below their projections? This doesn’t have to be first round necessarily - just your gut feelings about what’s gonna go down.

[AZBearsFan]

Biggest Riser - Antoine Winfield Jr. 

I think he goes round 1 and is the first safety off the board. He has injury history to consider for sure but his ball skills and versatility are what every team wants. It wouldn’t shock me to see him go 17 to Dallas. 

Biggest Faller - Derrick Brown

Assuming he doesn’t go 3 to DET or 7 to Carolina I can see a very plausible situation where he falls out of the top 15. I’m expecting a run on OL and WR, plus CJ Henderson and maybe a QB from 8-15, and I think several teams will have Kinlaw above Brown too. 

[beardown3231]

To me, Derrick Brown is one of the 3 best players in the draft.

Biggest riser- AJ Terrell- someone will miss on Okudah and Henderson and make a brash move

Biggest faller- Ezra Cleveland- because I think he stinks

[Madmike90]

Biggest Raiser - WR Michael Pittman Jr.

I think he is the clear cut #5 WR in this class now...his experience in a pro style offence, leadership & intelligence will stand out in a shortened offseason...you then look at the size combined with his deep threat skills and he is a quality fit...I think we see a run with the Raiders, 9ers & Broncos all going WR...that leaves the Eagles at #21 & Vikings at #22 as well as he Saints at #24 & Vikes again at #25 all looking for WRs I see no way he gets past them...at worst I see him going to GB at #30.

Biggest Faller - QB Justin Herbert

I think Miami move up and take Tua when then leaves the Charges with no option but to take Herbert or skip a QB in the 1st...personally I just don't see the hype with Herbert so I reckon they could pass him up and get some OT help or maybe even a defender like Derrick Brown to create a crazy front with Bosa.

[Epyon]

Risers:

-Claypool-WR/TE:  Someone gambles on athletic potential way earlier than the projected 3rd round he's currently pegged...  I could see him going off the board by our pick #50, which is way ahead of his projected slot.

-Gibson WR/RB:  Same reason as Claypool... Size speed/athleticism freak. Claims to have had interviews with 30 teams already (and that was like a week or two ago)... He's definitely on people's radar, which suggests that his late 3rd - 5th round projection is undershooting it.

-Anthony Gordon-QB:   It's a weak QB class, he has shown more capacity to make reads than most of the QBs in this class, and he has Gardner Minshew as a recent example that a guy from the system can work.  I have big concerns about his apparently atrocious athleticism... but he's loaded with -natural- talent and think he probably sneaks into the early-mid 3rd round near where Fromm is expected to go, rather than the 4th-5th rounder he probably should be picked around.

 

Fallers:

Eason-QB: I think he's on the board when he pick in the second. His inability to handle pressure or make good reads simply cannot make up for his measurables. He won't last longer than that, because GMs are ALWAYS idiots drooling over measurables at the expense of talent, just assuming the rest can actually be taught.... but I think Hackenberg and Kizer are recent examples that might scare gms away from him.

Running backs: I think this class is one of the strongest in recent memory and there are something like 5x late first round level talents in this draft.  None are Saquon level superstars, but they're better than last year's 2nd rounders by a significant margin.  This entire RB class is being criminally undervalued, and I'm not sure any go in the first, on the assumption that the first tier is all pretty close, and one of them should still be there in the 2nd.

Tua: He had an atrocious Wonderlic test, and it's much harder to judge medical concerns with the corona virus lockdown.... I think teams avoid the risk and he ends up being a late first rounder.

 

 

[Heinz D.]

4 minutes ago, Epyon said:

Fallers:

Eason-QB: I think he's on the board when he pick in the second. His inability to handle pressure or make good reads simply cannot make up for his measurables. He won't last longer than that, because GMs are ALWAYS idiots drooling over measurables at the expense of talent, just assuming the rest can actually be taught.... but I think Hackenberg and Kizer are recent examples that might scare gms away from him.

Running backs: I think this class is one of the strongest in recent memory and there are something like 5x late first round level talents in this draft.  None are Saquon level superstars, but they're better than last year's 2nd rounders by a significant margin.  This entire RB class is being criminally undervalued, and I'm not sure any go in the first, on the assumption that the first tier is all pretty close, and one of them should still be there in the 2nd.

Tua: He had an atrocious Wonderlic test, and it's much harder to judge medical concerns with the corona virus lockdown.... I think teams avoid the risk and he ends up being a late first rounder.

I think you're probably right about the risers, so I left all that out.

Eason will probably be there at #43. You're most likely right about that. He still intrigues me, so I do disagree with your overall assessment of him, but Pace will be too terrified to go there, and I won't blame him a bit for that. 

The RBs will fall because of the WRs and the OTs, you're definitely right about that. There may even be spectacular guys waiting around in the third. 

Tua isn't dropping out of the top ten. I guarantee that...

[AZBearsFan]

55 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

The RBs will fall because of the WRs and the OTs, you're definitely right about that. There may even be spectacular guys waiting around in the third. 

I remain super high on Montgomery but at some point value trumps need. If we trade back and add a 3 and Dobbins/CEH is still there for some reason we almost have to make the pick. We have zero depth who can actually start a game right now should Montgomery miss time and also only have Montgomery at RB under contract beyond 2020.

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, Heinz D. said:

Tua isn't dropping out of the top ten. I guarantee that...

Yeah, I think 9 is the absolute floor for him. I think JAX would have to take him if he falls into their lap. Even at that I’ll be genuinely shocked if he’s not gone after pick 6. 

[ba_ba_ba_BOOM]

Wtf I thought this was a Game of Thrones review thread

[dll2000]

11 hours ago, ba_ba_ba_BOOM said:

Wtf I thought this was a Game of Thrones review thread

That show in one season went from being most talked about show ... ever ... to near forgotten.

Talk about destroying a legacy.  

 

[dll2000]

14 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

Biggest Raiser - WR Michael Pittman Jr.

I think he is the clear cut #5 WR in this class now...his experience in a pro style offence, leadership & intelligence will stand out in a shortened offseason...you then look at the size combined with his deep threat skills and he is a quality fit...I think we see a run with the Raiders, 9ers & Broncos all going WR...that leaves the Eagles at #21 & Vikings at #22 as well as he Saints at #24 & Vikes again at #25 all looking for WRs I see no way he gets past them...at worst I see him going to GB at #30.

Biggest Faller - QB Justin Herbert

I think Miami move up and take Tua when then leaves the Charges with no option but to take Herbert or skip a QB in the 1st...personally I just don't see the hype with Herbert so I reckon they could pass him up and get some OT help or maybe even a defender like Derrick Brown to create a crazy front with Bosa.

Not sure guys rise or fall.  Just the talking heads learn of what scouts think and start changing their opinions to match.

If you scouted a guy on your own and made an opinion why would it suddenly change closer to draft? 

I think Pittman is pretty darn good.  I would have a first round grade on him in any normal WR year.  I would love to see him on Bears.  

Herbert from what I can tell is kind of a mystery, because he may be most talented QB in draft but just doesn’t play like it most of the time.  But also has flashes of greatness that make you want him.  Probably the classic low floor high ceiling pick.  Like Trubisky was.  

[Sugashane]

All of @Epyon's risers I agree with. To add:

RB Jonathan Taylor - I feel like he jumps Swift for the first RB taken. 

 

Fallers:

QB Jordan Love - I know he has a ton of talent, but I think he falls to the very bottom of the 1st as a ceiling. 

S Jeremy Chinn - I'm seeing a lot of 2nd round and even some late 1st round considerations for him. Late 2nd to early 3rd is where I think he lands. 

 

[dll2000]

Biggest shock would be if we ended up with Love.  Not even sure how I would feel about it. 

[AZBearsFan]

44 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

RB Jonathan Taylor - I feel like he jumps Swift for the first RB taken.

I was actually thinking the opposite - I was thinking Taylor may go after Dobbins and maybe after CEH too. Production can’t be ignored but ball security issues like he had in college would keep him on the bench in the NFL. Between Taylor, Dobbins and CEH it’s dealer’s choice for me talent-wise and I could see that being something that pushes Taylor to the back of that group.

CEH’s stature and play style gives me so many Maurice Jones-Drew vibes. Love his game. 

[AZBearsFan]

28 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Biggest shock would be if we ended up with Love.  Not even sure how I would feel about it. 

I would be torn. His upside is huge but I think we need 2020 contributors with the 2nd round picks and Love wouldn’t be that.

Would be interesting to see if Mitch would be cut or traded for peanuts if we did add Love or Hurts (also intriguing) or Eason (🤮) in round 2. The lack of commitment on his 5th year option either way suggests that getting rid of him all together is at least on the table. There’s really no reason other than it’s potential impact on any trade value he has to not say one way or the other at this point.