The QB Thread: Everything Carr, Stidham and beyond...

[FloydFan]

8 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

Of course it does.  We do not even have a set definition for garbage time.  I have some split stats for you.

Split	Value	Cmp	Att	Inc	Cmp%	Yds	TD	1D	Int	Rate	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	1D
Game Situation	Leading, < 2 min to go	0	0			0	0	0	0		0	0			5	-5	-1.0	0	0
	Leading, < 4 min to go	2	2	0	100.00	53	0	2	0	118.8	2	-25	26.5	26.50	5	-5	-1.0	0	0
	Tied, < 2 min to go	4	7	3	57.14	51	0	3	0	80.1	0	0	7.3	7.29	2	-2	-1.0	0	0
	Tied, < 4 min to go	6	9	3	66.67	88	0	4	0	98.4	0	0	9.8	9.78	2	-2	-1.0	0	0
	Trailing, < 2 min to go	14	27	13	51.85	152	0	9	0	68.8	3	-19	5.6	5.63	2	11	5.5	0	0
	Trailing, < 4 min to go	33	54	21	61.11	323	1	17	2	68.7	5	-26	6.0	4.69	3	12	4.0	0	0

 

This shows he does not perform well with less than 4 minutes when we are trailing.

Split	Value	G	W	L	T	Cmp	Att	Inc	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	A/G	Y/G	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	A/G	Y/G	Fmb	FL	FF	FR	Yds	TD
Final Margin	0-7 points	9	7	2	0	231	352	121	65.63	2617	11	8	88.7	21	144	7.43	7.04	39.1	290.8	23	65	2.83	0	2.6	7.2	7	3	0	3	-10	0
	8-14 points	5	3	2	0	120	167	47	71.86	1448	8	3	106.6	11	59	8.67	8.82	33.4	289.6	14	25	1.79	0	2.8	5.0	4	0	0	2	-5	0
	15+ points	3	0	3	0	77	107	30	71.96	739	4	3	91.6	8	38	6.91	6.39	35.7	246.3	3	18	6.00	0	1.0	6.0	2	2	0	0	0	0

 

This shows the closer the game the better the team outcome but once again Carrs rating drops.  This does not show how he plays compared to other QBs or directly in the fourth as a hole.  It is the best I have to go with the other stats.

 

 

This is where stats go over the top, I'm sorry but these breaks don't really say anything.  Y'all want to drag the man for wins but in this situation 4th qtr comeback wins don't count? ...ok.

[BackinBlack]

24 minutes ago, FloydFan said:

This is where stats go over the top, I'm sorry but these breaks don't really say anything.  Y'all want to drag the man for wins but in this situation 4th qtr comeback wins don't count? ...ok.

to be fair it goes both ways, because Carr has the most opportunties for comeback wins, because most games we play arent decided before the start of the 4th. 
Where as some of the elite QBs, may only get 3 or 4 opportunities for a 4th Q comeback a season, Carr probably gets 8 realistic shots. 

[FloydFan]

3 minutes ago, BackinBlack said:

to be fair it goes both ways, because Carr has the most opportunties for comeback wins, because most games we play arent decided before the start of the 4th. 
Where as some of the elite QBs, may only get 3 or 4 opportunities for a 4th Q comeback a season, Carr probably gets 8 realistic shots. 

Very true, very true. Good point.

[ronjon1990]

1 hour ago, FloydFan said:

This is where stats go over the top, I'm sorry but these breaks don't really say anything.  Y'all want to drag the man for wins but in this situation 4th qtr comeback wins don't count? ...ok.

This 100%

Carr has a lot of 4th Q comeback wins. 

There are very few times Carr's play in quarters 1-3 put us in whatever hole we're dug into. 

Rarely, if ever, are late game wins propelled by the D or run game. They're propelled by Carr balling. 

But, yeah, Carr doesn't elevate team....

If someone can point to any of our losses and say:

"The defense played well AND made stops, the run game was good, we had our WRs and TE healthy, and our OL wasn't a liability, AND Carr put us in a hole with poor play"

I would be amazed. 

People talk about "elevating' the team, when they're really complaining that Carr isn't a one-man show in the Rodgers/Mahomes mold. And very very few are. 

Rodgers and Mahomes are lucky luxuries.

Green Bay is still a solid team without Rodgers. Yes, he makes them better. They still win 10-11 games without him the last couple of years with even adequate QB play. Carr, they're easily set year in, year out even if not seen as a juggernaut.

Kansas City has seen household names like Matt Moore and Chad Henne look pretty good. Sans Mahomes, KC still owns the AFCW most years so long as they get adequate QB play. Carr, KC would still dominate the division. 

The Raiders with a Matt Moore or Chad Henne starting? That would be ugly and a surefire route to a top 3-4 pick. A Rodgers or Mahomes? Maybe we get an extra game or so in the regular season...maybe.Rodgers has had some dud records thanks to coaching (bad coaching like ours has been) and bad defenses. Mahomes hasn't had a dudsy record yet, but last year the cracks in KC were showing early. 

Point being, Carr is fine. If we NEED a lucky luxury at QB, we're screwed. If it takes a bonafide top 3 QB to have anything resembling a functional offense, we're screwed beyond QB. If we need a Rodgers or Mahomes to bail out our D, it's not QB that's the problem, it's the D. 

The Carr critics will be critics no matter what though. The expectations are unrealistic and almost always undefined. 

 

[FloydFan]

16 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

 

The Carr critics will be critics no matter what though. The expectations are unrealistic and almost always undefined. 

 

I've never seen so much goal post moving in my life.

[NCOUGHMAN]

honest question so don’t chew my head off lol
 

When do y’all think Carr’s extension gets finalized? 
 

im not a contract guy is there a general time bracket these things happen? Like before the draft etc etc

[ronjon1990]

5 minutes ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

honest question so don’t chew my head off lol
 

When do y’all think Carr’s extension gets finalized? 
 

im not a contract guy is there a general time bracket these things happen? Like before the draft etc etc

Hopefully before FA so we can get a grasp on what we can afford to bring in. 

[MrOaktown_56]

2 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

This 100%

Carr has a lot of 4th Q comeback wins. 

There are very few times Carr's play in quarters 1-3 put us in whatever hole we're dug into. 

Rarely, if ever, are late game wins propelled by the D or run game. They're propelled by Carr balling. 

But, yeah, Carr doesn't elevate team....

If someone can point to any of our losses and say:

"The defense played well AND made stops, the run game was good, we had our WRs and TE healthy, and our OL wasn't a liability, AND Carr put us in a hole with poor play"

I would be amazed. 

People talk about "elevating' the team, when they're really complaining that Carr isn't a one-man show in the Rodgers/Mahomes mold. And very very few are. 

Rodgers and Mahomes are lucky luxuries.

Green Bay is still a solid team without Rodgers. Yes, he makes them better. They still win 10-11 games without him the last couple of years with even adequate QB play. Carr, they're easily set year in, year out even if not seen as a juggernaut.

Kansas City has seen household names like Matt Moore and Chad Henne look pretty good. Sans Mahomes, KC still owns the AFCW most years so long as they get adequate QB play. Carr, KC would still dominate the division. 

The Raiders with a Matt Moore or Chad Henne starting? That would be ugly and a surefire route to a top 3-4 pick. A Rodgers or Mahomes? Maybe we get an extra game or so in the regular season...maybe.Rodgers has had some dud records thanks to coaching (bad coaching like ours has been) and bad defenses. Mahomes hasn't had a dudsy record yet, but last year the cracks in KC were showing early. 

Point being, Carr is fine. If we NEED a lucky luxury at QB, we're screwed. If it takes a bonafide top 3 QB to have anything resembling a functional offense, we're screwed beyond QB. If we need a Rodgers or Mahomes to bail out our D, it's not QB that's the problem, it's the D. 

The Carr critics will be critics no matter what though. The expectations are unrealistic and almost always undefined. 

 

This is my point. The chargers and chiefs straight up have better rosters than us. If we were just as/more talented and we were losing,  I would be livid. But we just aren't.

All the teams who made a run this year had better rosters than us. I'd rather gamble on a qb with big upside if/when we have a good roster. I'd rather not dump Carr without a plan and be the jets/jags winning 4 games a year while we look for a replacement. The 49ers are a good model of how to do it.

[drfrey13]

1 hour ago, FloydFan said:

This is where stats go over the top, I'm sorry but these breaks don't really say anything.  Y'all want to drag the man for wins but in this situation 4th qtr comeback wins don't count? ...ok.

I have never seen his 4th quarter comebacks as a big deal because our defense combined with his play style that allows opponents to hang around gives him way more chances at comeback drives.  These stats show his play drops off when games are close and late in games.  His 4th quarter rating is another piece of the puzzle.  When you start piecing everything together it does not look good for him.  Like I have said before he has the talent but not the production.  This is all just stats in response to he is the arguably the bet 4th quarter QB.  Well this is the counter argument.  Carr had 2 game winning drives in the 4th last year.  The 1st was against Cle where the defense held the Browns to under 250 yards total offense and two TDs.  1 TD came from a fumble and the defense had to hold the Browns to a 3 and out after a Carr interception with 3 minutes left.  They pick up 1 1st down and the game is over.  Against the Colts Carr played better down the stretch but Carr had 120 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 Ints before the 4th.  The defense held the Colts to 262 yards and 20 points with our offense having 2 TOs.  The Chargers with the exception of the 1st drive in the 4th, which was at the Chargers 2 yard line when the 4th started, he did not play well either.  They got the FG after the defense created a TO.  The Cowboys game the defense and offense stalled so the Cowboys came back and made a game of it.  Miami they were already in the redzone when the 4th started and scored a TD.  Then they punted a couple times to go into OT where we scored 2 FGs.  The Baltimore game they played really good in the 4th.  That was a come from behind win.  Once again I am not saying Carr is a trash QB but to say he is the best QB in the 4th is not even close.  The stats and the individual game breakdowns do not support your argument. 

[MrOaktown_56]

1 hour ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

honest question so don’t chew my head off lol
 

When do y’all think Carr’s extension gets finalized? 
 

im not a contract guy is there a general time bracket these things happen? Like before the draft etc etc

Definitely before the season and if they're smart they figure something out before the draft. You need to know where you stand before the draft for sure.

[FloydFan]

2 hours ago, drfrey13 said:

I have never seen his 4th quarter comebacks as a big deal because our defense combined with his play style that allows opponents to hang around gives him way more chances at comeback drives.  These stats show his play drops off when games are close and late in games.  His 4th quarter rating is another piece of the puzzle.  When you start piecing everything together it does not look good for him.  Like I have said before he has the talent but not the production.  This is all just stats in response to he is the arguably the bet 4th quarter QB.  Well this is the counter argument.  Carr had 2 game winning drives in the 4th last year.  The 1st was against Cle where the defense held the Browns to under 250 yards total offense and two TDs.  1 TD came from a fumble and the defense had to hold the Browns to a 3 and out after a Carr interception with 3 minutes left.  They pick up 1 1st down and the game is over.  Against the Colts Carr played better down the stretch but Carr had 120 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 Ints before the 4th.  The defense held the Colts to 262 yards and 20 points with our offense having 2 TOs.  The Chargers with the exception of the 1st drive in the 4th, which was at the Chargers 2 yard line when the 4th started, he did not play well either.  They got the FG after the defense created a TO.  The Cowboys game the defense and offense stalled so the Cowboys came back and made a game of it.  Miami they were already in the redzone when the 4th started and scored a TD.  Then they punted a couple times to go into OT where we scored 2 FGs.  The Baltimore game they played really good in the 4th.  That was a come from behind win.  Once again I am not saying Carr is a trash QB but to say he is the best QB in the 4th is not even close.  The stats and the individual game breakdowns do not support your argument. 

If you honestly think that I can’t help you. The stats when it comes to game winning drives do and I am really tired of people like yourself attributing wins and losses as a QB stat and then ignoring it in this situation. Just going to have to agree to disagree here because if you’re just going to take cherry picked stats it’s really not worth arguing. 

[drfrey13]

39 minutes ago, FloydFan said:

If you honestly think that I can’t help you. The stats when it comes to game winning drives do and I am really tired of people like yourself attributing wins and losses as a QB stat and then ignoring it in this situation. Just going to have to agree to disagree here because if you’re just going to take cherry picked stats it’s really not worth arguing. 

First I have not said wins and loses are a QB stat.  I have said they are the most important single player on the field  and therefore get more of the blame or credit of the outcome.  If you want to break down single games then you can see how much credit they deserve.  If you just lust at a general stat and think that tells you the whole story then go ahead.  If you want to go off a generalized stat you to have to apply it in a general way.  The same way if I want to take a very specific stat I can only apply it to very specific situations.  I cherry picked nothing.  I took his 4th quarter rating, splits of under 4 minutes to play, how he plays when the final score is less than one possession, and then broke down the games that where applicable to the parameters of him being a great 4th quarter QB and game winning drives.

Here are the 6 games that are considered GWD or 4th QC:

Rk	Year	G#	Date	Age	Tm		Opp	Result	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Y/A	AY/A	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	Notes
25	2021	1	2021-09-13	30-169	LVR		BAL	W 33-27	34	56	60.71	435	2	1	89.5	7.77	7.68	4	6	1.50	0	4QC / GWD
26	2021	3	2021-09-26	30-182	LVR		MIA	W 31-28	26	43	60.47	386	2	1	95.7	8.98	8.86	2	-2	-1.00	0	GWD
27	2021	11	2021-11-25	30-242	LVR	@	DAL	W 36-33	24	39	61.54	373	1	0	101.8	9.56	10.08	2	21	10.50	0	GWD
28	2021	14	2021-12-20	30-267	LVR	@	CLE	W 16-14	25	38	65.79	236	1	1	80.6	6.21	5.55	3	7	2.33	0	4QC / GWD
29	2021	16	2022-01-02	30-280	LVR	@	IND	W 23-20	24	31	77.42	255	1	2	84.7	8.23	5.97	0	0		0	4QC / GWD
30	2021	17	2022-01-09	30-287	LVR		LAC	W 35-32	20	36	55.56	186	2	0	88.4	5.17	6.28	1	-1	-1.00	0	GWD

 

If you want me to break down how he played in OT also I will do that with you but I figured I would only show games that on the surface should support your claim if it is true.  If you really think he is the best or one of the best 4th quarter QBs then have your opinion but not much in the past year supports that.  Now if you just want to use game winning drives then you would be making the same mistake as others who believe wins and loses are purely on the QB.  When you have a bunch of games go to OT your chances of having a GWD is much higher.

[NCOUGHMAN]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CaYTlUGo-0R/?utm_medium=copy_link
 

Hmmm was shefter making this up on some what would I do if I were jmd type logic?

[FloydFan]

36 minutes ago, NCOUGHMAN said:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CaYTlUGo-0R/?utm_medium=copy_link
 

Hmmm was shefter making this up on some what would I do if I were jmd type logic?

LOL did you listen to the whole interview? They literally cut him off at the meat of his point in that clip and his point was there isn't really a realistic upgrade this year and that he expects them to stick with Carr.

[FloydFan]

45 minutes ago, drfrey13 said:

First I have not said wins and loses are a QB stat.  I have said they are the most important single player on the field  and therefore get more of the blame or credit of the outcome.  If you want to break down single games then you can see how much credit they deserve.  If you just lust at a general stat and think that tells you the whole story then go ahead.  If you want to go off a generalized stat you to have to apply it in a general way.  The same way if I want to take a very specific stat I can only apply it to very specific situations.  I cherry picked nothing.  I took his 4th quarter rating, splits of under 4 minutes to play, how he plays when the final score is less than one possession, and then broke down the games that where applicable to the parameters of him being a great 4th quarter QB and game winning drives.

Here are the 6 games that are considered GWD or 4th QC:

Rk	Year	G#	Date	Age	Tm		Opp	Result	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Y/A	AY/A	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	Notes
25	2021	1	2021-09-13	30-169	LVR		BAL	W 33-27	34	56	60.71	435	2	1	89.5	7.77	7.68	4	6	1.50	0	4QC / GWD
26	2021	3	2021-09-26	30-182	LVR		MIA	W 31-28	26	43	60.47	386	2	1	95.7	8.98	8.86	2	-2	-1.00	0	GWD
27	2021	11	2021-11-25	30-242	LVR	@	DAL	W 36-33	24	39	61.54	373	1	0	101.8	9.56	10.08	2	21	10.50	0	GWD
28	2021	14	2021-12-20	30-267	LVR	@	CLE	W 16-14	25	38	65.79	236	1	1	80.6	6.21	5.55	3	7	2.33	0	4QC / GWD
29	2021	16	2022-01-02	30-280	LVR	@	IND	W 23-20	24	31	77.42	255	1	2	84.7	8.23	5.97	0	0		0	4QC / GWD
30	2021	17	2022-01-09	30-287	LVR		LAC	W 35-32	20	36	55.56	186	2	0	88.4	5.17	6.28	1	-1	-1.00	0	GWD

 

If you want me to break down how he played in OT also I will do that with you but I figured I would only show games that on the surface should support your claim if it is true.  If you really think he is the best or one of the best 4th quarter QBs then have your opinion but not much in the past year supports that.  Now if you just want to use game winning drives then you would be making the same mistake as others who believe wins and loses are purely on the QB.  When you have a bunch of games go to OT your chances of having a GWD is much higher.

You have completely missed my point in general which is why this is tiring. The stats don't show the story. I'm also incredibly tired of stat box scouting.  This is the type of logic that causes people to screw up and miss on good players. There is a grey area between eye test and stat boxes in my opinion. The NFL ain't baseball. Do you honestly think we have 10 wins last year with anyone that would be available over Carr right now (not counting Rodgers and Wilson since they realistically aren't available at least yet)? Also, I originally said it was "arguable" that he was and his 4th qtr heroics have absolutely proven that statement correct. It's amazing that stable franchises and pillars of winning (New England for example) have looked at Carr as a valid QB to lead their franchise, yet Mr random online dude is a better judge of talent. If we were doing a full rebuild, sure trade him, but you don't hire McDaniels and have that press conference for a full rebuild. Just don't do it. Now if Rodgers becomes available sure if you can get him I'm not angry. That doesn't seem realistic to me though.