Can a Case be made for Keenum...?

[gopherwrestler]

1 hour ago, SemperFeist said:

I disagree that they have to see him play in a game. Would it be beneficial, sure, but these coaches see him every day in practice and in the meeting rooms. They have a very good idea of what he can do. 

They also saw Bradford in practice in the meeting rooms and practice before the Bears game...

 

I have multiple angles I look at for the future.

 

Sign Teddy (looking at him as a franchise guy after this year)1 year $15M deal, sign another Vet, draft QB rounds 2-4 (maybe 1).

Sign Case 3 year type deal $18M a year most likely, draft QB round 1 (even if you have to move up, Sloter around as 3rd string.

 

Whatever happens it is very unlikely we will be signing Case & Teddy Although possible, but signing a Vet QB to a multi year deal like this you almost look at him to be your starter, while you sign someone like Teddy to most likely a 1 year contract (maybe a multi year deal where you have a way out after the first year) would be tough to swallow and is basically killing Cap and I am not a fan of that.

 

Another offseason of QB controversy.

 

Weird how things change, we all thought we would have to controversy of Sam Vs. Teddy.

Now we have a 3rd string vet who hasn't done a thing good in his career Vs. a QB coming off a major knee surgery that we will not see play in 2 years.

 

One thing to remember is we have seen teams completely drop their Vet QB's after winning the Superbowl,  Johnson, Dilfer, & there might even be more, so even if we make a playoff run or farther it isn't crazy to see a team move on from their QB like that.

[Dolmonite26]

18 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

3 hours ago, Purplexing said:

If a QB has thrown 3 such passes in 300 attempts, and another QB has thrown 6 such passes in 600 attempts, which QB do you prefer/ feel comfortable with as anything more than a sub, and why?

I don't know. The frequency is the same and I don't know anything else about the QBs.

Yeah odd question I I'd say.  Still 1% of throws are great either way, but no other context.

Are the rest garbage? What are we getting at here lol?

[Dolmonite26]

For those wondering about the Good doctor's thoughts on the situation, he's all over it on Twitter.  Same user name

[Dolmonite26]

The Vikings pressure to sack ratio is one of the best in the league, something around only 4% of pressures are turning into sacks.

A good indicator of Keenum's play.  Fact is, he's making the argument a lot tougher for us Ted heads.

[JDBrocks]

pretty good thread

[vike daddy]

Zimmer: “Case is playing outstanding, he’s a great competitor. He studies his rear end off. He works extremely hard. Today he seemed like he was more settled. There are times when he gets a little bit excitable and kind of goes off the reservation a little bit. But, today, even throughout course of the game, he seemed like he was in a pretty good mindset.”

https://scout.com/nfl/vikings/Article/Minnesota-Vikings-put-together-two-long-drives-that-set-tone-and-tempo-of-their-win-110952232

[vikings209]

My question is can Case have the same success without our current OC? Pat has been dialing up great game plans throughout the season and working with his strengths. If Shurmur leaves for a HC job will he want to take Keenum? 

[Dolmonite26]

2 hours ago, vikings209 said:

My question is can Case have the same success without our current OC? Pat has been dialing up great game plans throughout the season and working with his strengths. If Shurmur leaves for a HC job will he want to take Keenum? 

What's the precedent for career backups, or even just suddenly great years becoming new norms for quarterbacks?

Most tend to fall back to the mean.  Look at Matt Ryan last year vs every other year of his career.  2016 Matt Ryan is not Matt Ryan.  Which is the fear and trepidation I think for many about CK, at least beyond this year.

[vike daddy]

While coach Mike Zimmer allowed himself to praise Keenum more effusively than Zimmer has to date, Zimmer still hasn’t declared Keenum to be the unquestioned starter. So why won’t he? One theory is that Zimmer, who once worked for Bill Parcells and still relies on him for advice, deliberately is keeping Keenum in limbo, because Zimmer believes that Keenum plays better when he thinks he’s on a short leash. Plenty of quarterbacks don’t; Keenum unquestionably does.

Kyle Rudolph: “Well, that’s one of Coach Zim’s styles. You know, he does that, not only with Case but with everyone on our team. He truly believes that we play better as a team when we have that chip on our shoulder, when we have that edge. When people are against us, when people count us out. So I wouldn’t be surprised if your theory is correct.”

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/11/24/why-wont-mike-zimmer-anoint-case-keenum-as-the-starter/

[Krauser]

Hey guys, interesting discussion. I'll add my thoughts.

Heading into the bye week, I thought Keenum was basically Better Ponder -- same jersey #7, similar size and (marginal) arm strength, similar style as a try-hard energetic guy who runs around in the pocket, scrambles, makes plays off the bootleg, and needs his WRs to help him out downfield. Keenum had some nice production in the Bucs game, but his numbers were being elevated by his WRs making some circus catches and the OL pass blocking better than it has since 2009. At the bye, Keenum had thrown an INT in 3 straight games, had only 4 passing TDs in his last 4.5 games, and was leaving plays on the field. They'd won 4 straight, but they struggled to put away the Packers at home despite Hundley throwing multiple picks, only salted away the Ravens at home thanks to Murray's big TD run despite Flacco and co being held to barely 100 yards offense until garbage time, and they trailed the winless Browns on a neutral field well into the 2nd half. I wasn't looking forward to the 5 games coming out of the bye, figured they could be heading from 6-2 to 8-5 or 7-6.

But since the bye week, Keenum's been amazing. Yes, the INTs in Washington were stupid, especially the first one. The big TD to Thielen in the Rams game was all YAC against a backup CB who should've done better to make the tackle. He nearly fumbled twice in Detroit. But in general, Keenum's been somewhere between very good to great for 3 straight weeks. The first half in Washington was fantastic, and he was the best player on the team vs the Lions. 

This improvement has happened at the same time as his supporting cast's performance has fallen off considerably. Keenum's been seeing a lot of pressure -- last 3 weeks, his pressure percentage (pressures/dropback) is 3rd in the league, basically the same as Dak Prescott's. The receivers are still playing well, though Thielen does have a few drops of catchable but difficult throws, and Diggs isn't getting open as much as he did earlier in the year (thanks in part to uncalled DPI). The run game has been struggling to stay ahead of the chains (too much negative yardage on 1st down, some big gains but no consistent success rate). The kicker has been a tire fire, and they're getting very little help in terms of field position or scoring from special teams. The defense meanwhile has allowed 30 & 23 points in the the last 2 road games (not entirely their fault, but not exactly elite performance either) -- more than you can expect to give up and win on the road. 

Despite all that, Keenum is on an incredible hot streak. He's up to 2nd in the league in Total QBR (which doesn't account for style points like ball placement, or for un/lucky bounces, but does include Air Yards vs YAC, field position, sustaining drives, scoring, and the QB's rushing and fumbles), behind only Deshaun Watson, who'll fall off the leaderboard soon for lack of attempts. Keenum has THREE OF THE TOP SIX GAMES this year by QBR (and Bradford has another game tied for 9th, so the Vikings have 4 of the top 10). His PFF grade is up to 13th in the league, he has one of the best DVOA / DYAR numbers this year (including the highest QB DYAR of the week for the Rams game) and he's won a player of the week award. 

I give him full credit. I didn't think he could play this well, or improve this much. His passer rating, before and after the bye, went from 79 to 114. That's roughly equivalent to 2012 Ponder turning into 2016 Matt Ryan. Ponder's Total QBR and DVOA from 2011-12 were actually better than Keenum's up until 2016 -- Keenum had the WORST QBR IN THE LEAGUE LAST YEAR, worse than a bunch of other failed starters-turned-backups, like Gabbert and Osweiler. His hot streak has basically been like having one of those guys turn into Ryan or Rodgers or Brees for 3 weeks -- it's incredible. 

...

Incredible though Keenum's performance has been,  I do think it's just a hot streak. I don't know of any other precedents for a QB suddenly going from failed starter / solid backup to All Pro/MVP candidate, especially after several years in the league at the age of 29.

As recently as October 2017, Keenum wasn't that good. I was at the Ravens game and the offense was 2012-Ponder-esque: similar numbers in rushing yards as passing yards, similar YPA as YPC, 0 TD / 1 INT, a lot of simple completions, nothing much happening downfield. Keenum missed a couple of open receivers and threw the ball into harms way a couple of times. It was a good win but nothing impressive.

Going into the bye, I think the argument that this was somehow Keenum's team, or that he was a "hot hand" was wrong. They'd won a few winnable games in a row, but he wasn't playing that well. There wasn't any reason to expect him to win harder games in November and December, let alone the playoffs. At that point, he hadn't done anything better than Bridgewater did in late 2014 and 2015. There was no reason in my mind not to go back to Teddy soon after the bye. I was hoping the offense would elevate its production with that change. 

Instead, Keenum got the start in Washington and lit up a good defense on the road. And his improved play has continued. Any increase in production I was hoping to see from the QB position this month has already happened, and more so -- Keenum is playing as well as any QB in the league.

Right now, there's no way they can go back to Bridgewater until or unless Keenum falters (not just one bad throw / decision, but a bad half or game). 

...

Again, I do think it's just a hot streak, and Keenum will eventually look more like the 2015/16 version of himself, or even the version of himself from October this year. 

If healthy, which he seems to be, I think Teddy is a better QB than Keenum had ever been until recently.

Keenum's more aggressive, but I don't think that's a big plus in the Vikings system as long as Zimmer's the HC and the defense is playing well. Keenum might be better at avoiding sacks, but his sack percentage (of dropbacks) has never been great before this year, and was fairly similar to other QBs on the teams he played for. He's probably better at going downfield off play action, but I think Teddy's supposed struggles in that area are overrated.

Teddy's considerably more accurate. I think he's better at going through progressions and finding secondary targets instead of either forcing the ball into coverage or turning the play into a scramble drill. He does a better job of taking care of the ball, including being aware of the game situation. Overall, I think he's a better leader for a team that's likely going to have to win a game against an opportunistic, attacking defense like the Saints or Eagles in order to make that deep playoff run. I'm worried that anything less than Favre-when-his-Dad-died levels of good fortune for Keenum against teams like that would turn out badly. 

If the Vikings are going to sign one of the two to a long term deal (I think any contract Teddy gets will probably be a year-by-year voidable thing like Kaepernick's extension), I'd rather have Teddy. If Cousins hasn't been able to get a huge extension in Washington, I can't believe Spielman will open up the vault for Keenum based on this hot streak, unless he does the truly improbable and goes all the way to win the big home game in February. I think there would be Flacco levels of regret from a long-term Keenum contract extension, but I won't care too much if they finally win a ring. 

...

For now, I think it's an easy choice to continue with Keenum as the starter. You see a similar thing in hockey, when a hot backup goalie posts a couple of shutouts and goes on a win streak. As long as he's hot, he gets the majority of the starts. And that can go on for weeks or even months. But if and when the bubble pops, the coach and team know who their real starter is, and there's no controversy when they go back to the original #1. 

I still think Bridgewater is Zimmer's quarterback. He said that on the day of the injury, and I don't imagine he's changed his mind now that Teddy seems to have recovered as well from that injury as anyone could have hoped. As recently as the bye week, Zimmer was talking about when Teddy would be starting again, not if. 

For the moment, Case Keenum is the hottest thing in football. And he's our starting QB for as long as he can keep it up. It's been a great run, I hope it never ends. 

If and when it does, Teddy Bridgewater will be back as the starting QB.

 

[NorthCountryEvo]

Krauser is back!!!

Great breakdown, and I have to say I feel the same way in my gut. While I hope Keenum continues his high level of play, I think Teddy is the better QB, if not now, in the long term. I don't know that the term "sustainable" is necessarily correct with Keenum when discussing his prowess of late, but the hot streak/bubble burst feeling is there, and while I could see Keenum continuing with his good play, I'd be quicker to wager that we could see more of a mix of the last 3 games along with some of his lesser style performances from before the bye (if not falling off more drastically). It's nice knowing we have a guy like Teddy, waiting on the sideline with his helmet on, for if/when this fall happens.

[CriminalMind]

If the bubble doesn't burst, and Keenum takes us into late Jan\early Feb games... which is still a very probable scenario, and Pat doesn't take HC interviews, you got to think management will think extremely highly of Case. Ziggy, Rick & Pat in the locker room congratulating Case with excitement that they have not had since 2009.

Under that scenario, no one will fault upper management with going with Case on a big one year deal, over Teddy. And then using that 29th-32nd pick on a QB (like a Baker Mayfield) who can learn the ropes while sitting.

[SemperFeist]

6 hours ago, Krauser said:

Hey guys, interesting discussion. I'll add my thoughts.

Heading into the bye week, I thought Keenum was basically Better Ponder -- same jersey #7, similar size and (marginal) arm strength, similar style as a try-hard energetic guy who runs around in the pocket, scrambles, makes plays off the bootleg, and needs his WRs to help him out downfield. Keenum had some nice production in the Bucs game, but his numbers were being elevated by his WRs making some circus catches and the OL pass blocking better than it has since 2009. At the bye, Keenum had thrown an INT in 3 straight games, had only 4 passing TDs in his last 4.5 games, and was leaving plays on the field. They'd won 4 straight, but they struggled to put away the Packers at home despite Hundley throwing multiple picks, only salted away the Ravens at home thanks to Murray's big TD run despite Flacco and co being held to barely 100 yards offense until garbage time, and they trailed the winless Browns on a neutral field well into the 2nd half. I wasn't looking forward to the 5 games coming out of the bye, figured they could be heading from 6-2 to 8-5 or 7-6.

But since the bye week, Keenum's been amazing. Yes, the INTs in Washington were stupid, especially the first one. The big TD to Thielen in the Rams game was all YAC against a backup CB who should've done better to make the tackle. He nearly fumbled twice in Detroit. But in general, Keenum's been somewhere between very good to great for 3 straight weeks. The first half in Washington was fantastic, and he was the best player on the team vs the Lions. 

This improvement has happened at the same time as his supporting cast's performance has fallen off considerably. Keenum's been seeing a lot of pressure -- last 3 weeks, his pressure percentage (pressures/dropback) is 3rd in the league, basically the same as Dak Prescott's. The receivers are still playing well, though Thielen does have a few drops of catchable but difficult throws, and Diggs isn't getting open as much as he did earlier in the year (thanks in part to uncalled DPI). The run game has been struggling to stay ahead of the chains (too much negative yardage on 1st down, some big gains but no consistent success rate). The kicker has been a tire fire, and they're getting very little help in terms of field position or scoring from special teams. The defense meanwhile has allowed 30 & 23 points in the the last 2 road games (not entirely their fault, but not exactly elite performance either) -- more than you can expect to give up and win on the road. 

Despite all that, Keenum is on an incredible hot streak. He's up to 2nd in the league in Total QBR (which doesn't account for style points like ball placement, or for un/lucky bounces, but does include Air Yards vs YAC, field position, sustaining drives, scoring, and the QB's rushing and fumbles), behind only Deshaun Watson, who'll fall off the leaderboard soon for lack of attempts. Keenum has THREE OF THE TOP SIX GAMES this year by QBR (and Bradford has another game tied for 9th, so the Vikings have 4 of the top 10). His PFF grade is up to 13th in the league, he has one of the best DVOA / DYAR numbers this year (including the highest QB DYAR of the week for the Rams game) and he's won a player of the week award. 

I give him full credit. I didn't think he could play this well, or improve this much. His passer rating, before and after the bye, went from 79 to 114. That's roughly equivalent to 2012 Ponder turning into 2016 Matt Ryan. Ponder's Total QBR and DVOA from 2011-12 were actually better than Keenum's up until 2016 -- Keenum had the WORST QBR IN THE LEAGUE LAST YEAR, worse than a bunch of other failed starters-turned-backups, like Gabbert and Osweiler. His hot streak has basically been like having one of those guys turn into Ryan or Rodgers or Brees for 3 weeks -- it's incredible. 

...

Incredible though Keenum's performance has been,  I do think it's just a hot streak. I don't know of any other precedents for a QB suddenly going from failed starter / solid backup to All Pro/MVP candidate, especially after several years in the league at the age of 29.

As recently as October 2017, Keenum wasn't that good. I was at the Ravens game and the offense was 2012-Ponder-esque: similar numbers in rushing yards as passing yards, similar YPA as YPC, 0 TD / 1 INT, a lot of simple completions, nothing much happening downfield. Keenum missed a couple of open receivers and threw the ball into harms way a couple of times. It was a good win but nothing impressive.

Going into the bye, I think the argument that this was somehow Keenum's team, or that he was a "hot hand" was wrong. They'd won a few winnable games in a row, but he wasn't playing that well. There wasn't any reason to expect him to win harder games in November and December, let alone the playoffs. At that point, he hadn't done anything better than Bridgewater did in late 2014 and 2015. There was no reason in my mind not to go back to Teddy soon after the bye. I was hoping the offense would elevate its production with that change. 

Instead, Keenum got the start in Washington and lit up a good defense on the road. And his improved play has continued. Any increase in production I was hoping to see from the QB position this month has already happened, and more so -- Keenum is playing as well as any QB in the league.

Right now, there's no way they can go back to Bridgewater until or unless Keenum falters (not just one bad throw / decision, but a bad half or game). 

...

Again, I do think it's just a hot streak, and Keenum will eventually look more like the 2015/16 version of himself, or even the version of himself from October this year. 

If healthy, which he seems to be, I think Teddy is a better QB than Keenum had ever been until recently.

Keenum's more aggressive, but I don't think that's a big plus in the Vikings system as long as Zimmer's the HC and the defense is playing well. Keenum might be better at avoiding sacks, but his sack percentage (of dropbacks) has never been great before this year, and was fairly similar to other QBs on the teams he played for. He's probably better at going downfield off play action, but I think Teddy's supposed struggles in that area are overrated.

Teddy's considerably more accurate. I think he's better at going through progressions and finding secondary targets instead of either forcing the ball into coverage or turning the play into a scramble drill. He does a better job of taking care of the ball, including being aware of the game situation. Overall, I think he's a better leader for a team that's likely going to have to win a game against an opportunistic, attacking defense like the Saints or Eagles in order to make that deep playoff run. I'm worried that anything less than Favre-when-his-Dad-died levels of good fortune for Keenum against teams like that would turn out badly. 

If the Vikings are going to sign one of the two to a long term deal (I think any contract Teddy gets will probably be a year-by-year voidable thing like Kaepernick's extension), I'd rather have Teddy. If Cousins hasn't been able to get a huge extension in Washington, I can't believe Spielman will open up the vault for Keenum based on this hot streak, unless he does the truly improbable and goes all the way to win the big home game in February. I think there would be Flacco levels of regret from a long-term Keenum contract extension, but I won't care too much if they finally win a ring. 

...

For now, I think it's an easy choice to continue with Keenum as the starter. You see a similar thing in hockey, when a hot backup goalie posts a couple of shutouts and goes on a win streak. As long as he's hot, he gets the majority of the starts. And that can go on for weeks or even months. But if and when the bubble pops, the coach and team know who their real starter is, and there's no controversy when they go back to the original #1. 

I still think Bridgewater is Zimmer's quarterback. He said that on the day of the injury, and I don't imagine he's changed his mind now that Teddy seems to have recovered as well from that injury as anyone could have hoped. As recently as the bye week, Zimmer was talking about when Teddy would be starting again, not if. 

For the moment, Case Keenum is the hottest thing in football. And he's our starting QB for as long as he can keep it up. It's been a great run, I hope it never ends. 

If and when it does, Teddy Bridgewater will be back as the starting QB.

 

As usual, great analysis! Nice to see you stop by.

[gopherwrestler]

10 hours ago, Dolmonite26 said:

 

Most tend to fall back to the mean.  Look at Matt Ryan last year vs every other year of his career.  2016 Matt Ryan is not Matt Ryan.  Which is the fear and trepidation I think for many about CK, at least beyond this year.

Ok this might be pushing it. Matt Ryan had a career year last year, but the main reason was his INT numbers went down.. he still has averaged 65% comp, 93.8 QBR, 25+ TD's a year,  and throwing for over 4,000 yards every single year. If he can win a Superbowl in his career he probably has a shot at the HOF some day.

If Case could come and play like Matt Ryan every year you could call him the franchise QB.

[SemperFeist]

The point remains, though, that Ryan has returned to the mean in 2017. He had a fantastic year in 2016, and in 2017 has returned to where he was prior.