swede700 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cearbhall said: I wouldn't include the two year deal that Bradford signed as a long term deal or one that offered him long-term security. Ryan Tannehill signed a contract in 2015 that with an average value if over $19M and guaranteed value over $21M. The QB franchise tag in 2015 was $18.544M for the exclusive version and something less for the non exclusive version. When Tannehill signed, he signed for more than the franchise tag value. Now that I have looked into it a bit more I am comfortable saying that most QBs that sign long-term deals to be starters do indeed sign for more than the franchise tag value. It is not far more frequent that a QB takes less money than the franchise tag for the additional long-term security. That may be true, but in the end, I don't see any team giving Case more than a 2 to 3 year deal, which in my mind is still a long-term deal, because he's only done it for 1 year. The Dolphins had a track record of moderate success and some upside with Tannehill. The Vikings don't have that with Keenum, nor can they necessarily expect it. Basically, I expect, if they offer him, it's going to be a "prove it again" deal...and I believe it will be similar to what he'll get in the marketplace...a $17M-$18M deal for 2-3 years. He ain't gonna get $20+M, because he's not a 25-26 year old...he's going to be 30 with 1 year of any success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duff34man Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 We have needed a good QB for a long time let's not screw it up by over thinking this. He's 30 and has at least 5 good years left. He doesn't have the wear like a 30 year old QB who has started 16 games a year but does have close to the experience of one. Give a 3-5 year deal at about 20 a year or whatever market value is. Don't let him go. We have a small window with this Defense and salaries will go up for a lot of players on this team with more success this year. We do not have time to wait a see if Teddy will be great. Offer him backup money for 1 or 2 years because that is what he is right now. If he can get a better deal somewhere else, good for him. I love Teddy but you have to strike while it's hot and that's Case. If he wants to be a backup maybe Case gets hurt and then Teddy gets his shot also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cearbhall Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, disaacs said: That may be true, but in the end, I don't see any team giving Case more than a 2 to 3 year deal, which in my mind is still a long-term deal, because he's only done it for 1 year. The Dolphins had a track record of moderate success and some upside with Tannehill. The Vikings don't have that with Keenum, nor can they necessarily expect it. Basically, I expect, if they offer him, it's going to be a "prove it again" deal...and I believe it will be similar to what he'll get in the marketplace...a $17M-$18M deal for 2-3 years. He ain't gonna get $20+M, because he's not a 25-26 year old...he's going to be 30 with 1 year of any success. It would be great if the team got Keenum to sign something in the $17M-$18M range for a 2-3 year deal. I can buy that this is what the market price would be for him. I have trouble believing that Keenum would sign this before testing free agency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Cearbhall said: I have trouble believing that Keenum would sign this before testing free agency. i don't. not if the Vikings offer him a very good package, coupled with him and his family already being settled in Minny and loving living there. the guy has been uprooted and moved around his whole career, finally having consistency could very well be a large factor in his decision making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CriminalMind Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I still think that Vikings will not let Case hit the free agent market, as they will feel that he will be offered a multi year deal by a couple of teams (in the plus $17M per year deal), and as such they will tag him to maintain future flexibility for the salary cap, to help ensure sufficient room for "Barr/Kendricks/Hunter/Diggs" extensions. Drafting a QB, is setting up a transition, where the total QB salary can drop back to under $10M (rookie + backups) for the 2019 season ... if we move on from Case then (and collect a comp pick for him) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Worm Guts Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, CriminalMind said: I still think that Vikings will not let Case hit the free agent market, as they will feel that he will be offered a multi year deal by a couple of teams (in the plus $17M per year deal), and as such they will tag him to maintain future flexibility for the salary cap, to help ensure sufficient room for "Barr/Kendricks/Hunter/Diggs" extensions. Drafting a QB, is setting up a transition, where the total QB salary can drop back to under $10M (rookie + backups) for the 2019 season ... if we move on from Case then (and collect a comp pick for him) Drafting a 1st round QB does set up better financially, but also says that Case is just a stopgap. All parties may be Ok with that too, I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 43 minutes ago, Duff34man said: We have needed a good QB for a long time let's not screw it up by over thinking this. He's 30 and has at least 5 good years left. He doesn't have the wear like a 30 year old QB who has started 16 games a year but does have close to the experience of one. Give a 3-5 year deal at about 20 a year or whatever market value is. Don't let him go. We have a small window with this Defense and salaries will go up for a lot of players on this team with more success this year. We do not have time to wait a see if Teddy will be great. Offer him backup money for 1 or 2 years because that is what he is right now. If he can get a better deal somewhere else, good for him. I love Teddy but you have to strike while it's hot and that's Case. If he wants to be a backup maybe Case gets hurt and then Teddy gets his shot also. I'm not on the side of thinking he necessarily has 5 good years left. I'm always cautious about guys who don't necessarily have the strongest arm in the world...and it doesn't matter how much "wear" he has on that arm, because age gets to you regardless. Arms for QBs don't work the same way as legs do for a RB, where the number of snaps determine how long you can play. Tom Brady doesn't have the arm he had 5 years ago, nor does Drew Brees...and neither had a huge arm to begin with, but they have the smarts...and they've proven it again and again over time. Case doesn't have that track record, so I'm not willing to just throw him the reins long-term and give him huge money on the basis of 1 season. I also don't buy the argument that we have such a small window with the defense. This isn't 2009 with a veteran-laden team. 5 of the starters on defense are 25 or younger (and 2 more are 28 or less). While they will certainly get more expensive, I don't think it's unfeasible to think that it will continue to be a good to great defense for quite some time. I also think that we do have some time to wait and see if Teddy (or someone else) can be great, because we don't need the QB to be great (Case has been doing really well, certainly, but is he "great" or doing extraordinary things? I don't know.). We need him to take care of the ball, first and foremost, and then make plays, if needed. Teddy has, from the beginning, shown to be able to take care of the ball, and I don't expect that to change, even with all the time off. And with more reps in the offseason, I believe he can get back to where he appeared to be prior to the injury. I'm not discounting what Case has done, or who he is, as he may well be what he has shown...but I'm not at a position where I have full confidence that he is and think that he has 5 good years left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolmonite26 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 "Why only sign Keenum for one year?" "Well we don't know if he can be this good next year, we don't if he's a long term answer." "So tag him or a team friendly deal with an out after one year, for about 18-24M?" "Yep, can't risk losing him." ---- "Why cant we sign Teddy to a relatively cheap deal, 8-15M?" "Well you don't know how good he'll be next year, he may not be a long term answer." .......? See my confusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cearbhall Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, Dolmonite26 said: "Why only sign Keenum for one year?" "Well we don't know if he can be this good next year, we don't if he's a long term answer." "So tag him or a team friendly deal with an out after one year, for about 18-24M?" "Yep, can't risk losing him." ---- "Why cant we sign Teddy to a relatively cheap deal, 8-15M?" "Well you don't know how good he'll be next year, he may not be a long term answer." .......? See my confusion? nevermind. I can't find the delete button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SemperFeist Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cearbhall said: Yes, I have seen your confusion. Stay classy, San Diego Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cearbhall Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, SemperFeist said: Stay classy, San Diego Yeah, sorry about that. I already removed my reply but couldn't figure out how to delete the post. Would appreciate it if you removed my reply that you quoted too. It had no point. Sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopherwrestler Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, Dolmonite26 said: "Why only sign Keenum for one year?" "Well we don't know if he can be this good next year, we don't if he's a long term answer." "So tag him or a team friendly deal with an out after one year, for about 18-24M?" "Yep, can't risk losing him." ---- "Why cant we sign Teddy to a relatively cheap deal, 8-15M?" "Well you don't know how good he'll be next year, he may not be a long term answer." .......? See my confusion? At this point I think we all see your confusion. Nobody knows exactly what the right answer is. Is Teddy ever going to be great? Is Case going to continue to improve with more time with a good surrounding? What would Teddy do with this type of system and offense? None of us know what will end up happening, I think it has brought a little confusion to Vikings ownership and even the coaching staff. Coaching staff and ownership obviously love Teddy, we all know this, we have all seen this. Thing is Case is also fairly young, and is winning, but it's on a limited basis. The confusion is real. I wish someday... in the future... we won't have a QB conundrum like we have had basically every year since the end of Daunte. We have battled thru Rookies, vets, fliers on young QB's, and we still have no clue if we have found the franchise QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vikes_Bolts1228 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I'm in the camp for a 2-3 year contract for Case. This way, it's not a complete gamble to see if he is what he showed in 2017 or if he regresses to what everyone thought he was prior to this season Also, I don't draft a QB in 2018 with the intent on him becoming a starter some day. I see what Case has in 2018 as the true #1 QB with no Sam or Teddy or rookie breathing down his neck. If he shows 2017 wasn't just a "contract year surge" and plays well, he's the guy. If not, you take a QB early in 2019 with intent on him becoming the QB of the future. If we do draft a QB in 2018 and Case shows 2017 wasn't a fluke, then you just wasted an early pick which could have been used to add depth or strengthen a position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopherwrestler Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, Vikes_Bolts1228 said: If we do draft a QB in 2018 and Case shows 2017 wasn't a fluke, then you just wasted an early pick which could have been used to add depth or strengthen a position. See I have no issue with that. Depth at the most important position in the game is something I am a fan of. Look at the failing teams when their QB went down. Yes are surrounding talent is better, but with the way Case/Teddy both have moved around there is a good chance for an injury to occur. Look what some teams have done by drafting some of these QB's a little bit above average have turned over and traded them away. Case has 2-3 year contract if he isn't playing the way you wish you have your back-up plan in tact and he can either take over the reigns after Cases contract and you have that plan to replace him when needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vikes_Bolts1228 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, gopherwrestler said: See I have no issue with that. Depth at the most important position in the game is something I am a fan of. Look at the failing teams when their QB went down. Yes are surrounding talent is better, but with the way Case/Teddy both have moved around there is a good chance for an injury to occur. Look what some teams have done by drafting some of these QB's a little bit above average have turned over and traded them away. Case has 2-3 year contract if he isn't playing the way you wish you have your back-up plan in tact and he can either take over the reigns after Cases contract and you have that plan to replace him when needed. I'd much rather go sign a vet QB than have a rookie as my backup. There's just so much unknown with rookies as your backup. Brett Hundley vs. Nick Foles (so far)....a QB who's never played compared to a QB who has shown he can play well in this league. Do you think we'd be where we're at if you replace Case with some rookie QB we took in 2017 draft? We knew Case was capable of at least staying competitive in a few games. I wouldn't mind taking a flier in rounds 4+ to keep and groom as a #3 but I'm not keen on drafting a QB with the first 3 picks. Just because it's what New England has mastered doesn't mean it's something I want us to do. Plus, I really don't like Spielman's history drafting QBs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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