After extensive research: Since 2016, you have a 25% chance of making Playoffs if your Bye Week is before Week 8. Good Luck!

[aceinthehouse]

We hear a lot of people talking about how they want their bye week in the middle of the season & not early or late.

So I decided to crunch the numbers and see for myself what facts, patterns exist if there were any.

I was curious to see what teams made the Playoffs vs the bye week they had that same year.

And this is what I found.

2019 bye weeks for playoff teams

49ers=week 4

Bills=week 6

Ravens=week 8

Saints=week 9

Texans, Patriots, Eagles=week 10

Packers, Seahawks, Titans=week 11

Chiefs, Vikings=week 12

That's 2/12

 

2018 bye weeks for playoff teams

Bears=week 5

Saints=week 6

Seahawks=week 7

Cowboys, Chargers=week 8

Colts, Eagles=week 9

Ravens, Texans=week 10

Patriots=week 11

Chiefs, Rams=week 12

That's 3/12

 

2017 bye weeks for playoff teams (earliest bye is week 5---latest week 11)

Saints, Falcons=week 5

Bills=week 6

Titans, jags, Rams=week 8

Patriots, Steelers, vikings=week 9

Chiefs, Eagles=week 10

Panthers=week 11

(No bye weeks  after week 11)

That's 3/12

 

2016 bye weeks for playoff teams

Packers=week 4

Chiefs, Seahawks=week 5

Cowboys=week 7

Dolphins, steelers, Giants=week 8

Patriots, texans=week 9

Raiders, lions=week 10

Falcons=week 11

(No week 12 bye week for any team, but Titans & browns had a week 13 bye week)

That's 4/12

6 teams made playoffs in 2015 with bye week before week 8--and--4 teams made playoffs in 2014 with bye week before week 8. 

So if I add in these 2 years along with the others, you would have a 30% chance to make playoffs if your bye week is before week 8. I did not go further back than 2014.

If someone wants further evidence by going back further, please feel free to do so.

So without further ado, here are the teams and their respected bye weeks for the 2020 season. Good luck, to those who have a bye week before week 8. You'll need it! 🤓

2020 NFL Bye Week Schedule

Week 5: Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers

Week 6: Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks,

Week 7: Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans

Week 8: Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Redskins

Week 9: Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles

Week 10: Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers

Week 11: Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Miami Dolphins, New York Giants, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers

Week 12: No Teams On Bye

Week 13: Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Edited May 8, 2020 by aceinthehouse

[Nabbs4u]

Coincidentally the Redskins have a week 8 bye so what you're really saying is, We have a chance? Gotcha.👍

Apparently so does the rest of the NFCE. 

[Johnny Nix]

Redskins + week 8 bye week + the square root of Andy Daltons number of games played for the cowboys = 13

number of letters in aceinthehouse= 13

[aceinthehouse]

10 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

Coincidentally the Redskins have a week 8 bye so what you're really saying is, We have a chance? Gotcha.👍

Apparently so does the rest of the NFCE. 

It doesn't really mean anything for my Redskins, cause there's 22 teams with bye's from week 8 to week 13.

What it does say, is that the 10 teams with bye weeks from week 7 & earlier?

Only 2, maybe 3 will make the dance.

 

[NudeTayne]

I broke down that there were 11 playoff teams out of 28 weeks (1-7 for years 2016-19) and then 37 playoff teams out of 40 weeks (8-17 for years 2016-19). Just looking at these numbers makes it clear that there has been a strong statistical difference over that span. Weeks 1-7 yield about 0.4 playoff teams per week, as weeks 8-17 yield about 1 playoff team per week, a 250% relative likelihood.

I looked to see where this ends, and it does end indeed at week 7. When I slid it over to compare weeks 1-8 vs weeks 9-17, the playoff teams per week on both sides became almost even. It turns out that a lot of teams that make the playoffs have a week 8 bye.

tl;dr:

Playoff teams with a bye in one of the eight weeks 1-8 (2016-19): 22. 22/32 = 0.69 playoff teams per week.

Playoff teams with a bye in one of nine weeks 9-17 (2016-19): 26/36 = 0.73 playoff teams per week.

[aceinthehouse]

4 minutes ago, NudeTayne said:

I broke down that there were 11 playoff teams out of 28 weeks (1-7 for years 2016-19) and then 37 playoff teams out of 40 weeks (8-17 for years 2016-19). Just looking at these numbers makes it clear that there has been a strong statistical difference over that span. Weeks 1-7 yield about 0.4 playoff teams per week, as weeks 8-17 yield about 1 playoff team per week, a 250% relative likelihood.

I looked to see where this ends, and it does end indeed at week 7. When I slid it over to compare weeks 1-8 vs weeks 9-17, the playoff teams per week on both sides became almost even. It turns out that a lot of teams that make the playoffs have a week 8 bye.

tl;dr:

Playoff teams with a bye in one of the eight weeks 1-8 (2016-19): 22. 22/32 = 0.69 playoff teams per week.

Playoff teams with a bye in one of nine weeks 9-17 (2016-19): 26/36 = 0.73 playoff teams per week.

Very nice! Good work!

[ET80]

42 minutes ago, aceinthehouse said:

We hear a

You lost me after this.

[aceinthehouse]

1 minute ago, ET80 said:

You lost me after this.

We hear a

We read a

We see a

We think a

We want a

Which do you prefer, cause all are applicable.

[Hunter2_1]

Let's see...

 

Baltimore - check. KC- check

49ers - check, MIN - damn.

 

I got a BAL vs SF superbowl.

[ET80]

8 minutes ago, aceinthehouse said:

Which do you prefer, cause all are applicable.

Oh, it's not your fault. I have a short attention span.

[SalvadorsDeli]

Looking at the distribution of bye weeks for 2020, it looks like more than 2/3 of the league has byes after Week 8. Assuming that holds true for previous years, it stands to reason that about 2/3 of the playoff field in a given season come from the post-Week 8 sample of roughly 2/3 of the league. Literally all you've really established is that more teams have byes after Week 8 than not. 

It really just looks like the poster child for correlation not meaning causation. Like, the fact alone that the Patriots never had a bye week before Week 8 in your sample already skews things enough on its own. For there to actually be something to this you'd probably have to identify individual teams over the past several years that have consistently made the playoffs when they had bye weeks post-Week 8 but missed the playoffs when they had early bye weeks. Even then it's probably not enough to look at this as a trend... but we don't even have the data points that would point towards a trend right now. 

Edited May 8, 2020 by BaltimoreTerp

[minutemancl]

This doesn't account for proportionality at all. 

10/32 teams have a bye most years before week 8. In some years, it is 12/32. If 10 teams have a pre-week 8 bye, and 4/10 of those teams make the playoffs (like what happened in 2016), that's actually a better ratio than those teams that had a bye post-week 8 (40% vs 8/22, 36%).

This is just wrong.

[aceinthehouse]

What's interesting, is with a 25% chance?

Only 3 of these teams will make the playoffs.

Week 5: Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers

Week 6: Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks,

Week 7: Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans

Packers, Patriots, Saints, Seahawks & Vikings is 5 of the "usual suspects" for playoffs.

But then you got 3/4 AFC South teams in this same bunch in Colts, Jags, Titans.

Lions & Raiders of course as teams that haven't been playoff bound in a while.

What am I saying?

I'm saying there are going to be some disappointed fans with high expectations for their teams not make the playoffs this year.

And not just from 1 or 2 of this bunch above, but several.

At least, according to my research.

[minutemancl]

1 minute ago, aceinthehouse said:

What's interesting, is with a 25% chance?

Only 3 of these teams will make the playoffs.

Week 5: Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers

Week 6: Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks,

Week 7: Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans

Packers, Patriots, Saints, Seahawks & Vikings is 5 of the "usual suspects" for playoffs.

But then you got 3/4 AFC South teams in this same bunch in Colts, Jags, Titans.

Lions & Raiders of course as teams that haven't been playoff bound in a while.

What am I saying?

I'm saying there are going to be some disappointed fans with high expectations for their teams not make the playoffs this year.

And not just from 1 or 2 of this bunch above, but several.

At least, according to my research.

Dude, this is not how statistics work. At all.

[TOUCAN]

I've always thought there should be a universal bye week. Just give everyone off week 8. Other sports have a break in their season in the form of a full week off or whatever. Granted they play more games but as physically taxing.