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johndeere1707

O-Line

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How confident are you guys in our offensive lines progression going into this season? I think the chances of adding anyone else is pretty slim, aside from injury. Who do you foresee the team lining up week 1? 
 

For me I think the only position up for debate is at RT, and I believe they should just stick Fred Johnson out there and let him grow through playing time. However I believe the team rolls out Bobby Hart week 1, especially if they don’t get a ton of reps heading into the season due to the restrictions. 

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First of all, I don’t expect us to bring any bodies in (barring injury). I think LT, LG and C are locked up with Williams, Jordan and Hopkins. Probably RG too, with XSF. I just can’t imagine the Billy Price we’ve seen does anything to push for significant snaps.

Right tackle will be interesting. Hart actually didn’t play too bad to finish the season, and the line as a whole came together to finish the year. Part of that may be attributed to the weak level of competition to end the season, part of it could be cohesion as the season wore on and the line gelled. The reason is probably somewhere in between. On the analytics side, he actually graded out pretty well in pass protection, per PFF. Run-blocking, not so much. Still, there’s a lot of room for improvement there.

The Marvin Lewis era has us accustomed to assuming the more experienced option will start (Hart), but it wouldn’t shock me if the new regime gave the Week 1 job to Johnson if be outplays Hart this offseason. We saw it last year with Damion Willis, for better or for worse. The new regime will play the best man. If I had to guess, I still think Hart opens the season as the starting right tackle come kickoff. It will take a big offseason from Johnson to overtake that spot, IMO.

I’ve seen this idea floated out before...Given how well Fred Johnson played at LT to finish the year, how about starting Fred at LT and moving Jonah to the right side? 

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34 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

I’ve seen this idea floated out before...Given how well Fred Johnson played at LT to finish the year, how about starting Fred at LT and moving Jonah to the right side? 

Yeah I’ve seen that too. I just would rather keep Jonah there at LT to be honest. 

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1 hour ago, johndeere1707 said:
2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I’ve seen this idea floated out before...Given how well Fred Johnson played at LT to finish the year, how about starting Fred at LT and moving Jonah to the right side? 

Yeah I’ve seen that too. I just would rather keep Jonah there at LT to be honest. 

Keep Jonah at left, i agree.  You spend a high first on a guy and you need to see what he has there.

I think it's going to be:

LT: Jonah
LG: Michael Jordan
C: Hopkins
RG: Xavier
RT: Fred Johnson

Outside shot that Hart "wins" the battle at RT and Fred ends up playing one of the guard spots.  And by "win", i mean that Fred was obviously better in TC/preseason, but they give the job to Hart because Turner likes him.  So they put Fred at guard because he's one of the best 5 linemen.

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I'll be shocked if Hart isn't the starting RT game 1.  Always chance an injury gets Johnson into the starting lineup, but I'd prefer our line to be healthy for a change.

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2 hours ago, johndeere1707 said:

How confident are you guys in our offensive lines progression going into this season?

I don't buy too much into the late season surge, tbh.  That seems to happen a lot every year with bad teams.  But it never really translates.

I think they'll struggle to run the ball again.  Not to the same degree at last year, but probably somewhere in the middle of the first 4 games (historically bad) and last 4 games (where they were good-ish).  They'll struggle to protect too, but Joe will handle it ok. 

If i had to put odds on the 2021 offensive line, i'd go:

LT: Jonah (95%) - Other/New Guy (5%)
LG: Michael Jordan - (50%) - Other/New Guy (50%)
C: Hopkins - (99%) - Price (0.5%) - Other/New Guy (0.5%)
RG: Xavier (25%) - Fred Johnson (25%) - Other/New Guy (50%)
RT: Fred Johnson (25%) - Bobby Hart (25%) - Other/New Guy (50%)

So a pretty decent change we see new guys on the line at 3/5 spots in 2021.

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9 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

I'll be shocked if Hart isn't the starting RT game 1.  Always chance an injury gets Johnson into the starting lineup, but I'd prefer our line to be healthy for a change.

Yeah i'm probably just being wishful.  If i were being truthful, i'd say it's 70/30 Hart in the lead right now.

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My guess is the starting lineup is:

 

Williams-Jordan-Hopkins-XSF-Hart

 

Backups will be Johnson, Price, then a dogfight. Redmond and Adeniji seem likely to make the 55. 

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I mean, I can buy a lot in a vacuum.  Jonah should be a good pro.  I think Michael Johnson is going to develop into a top flight left guard. Center is good, Hopkins is good and Price can handle backup duties. I'll give the new guy a chance at right guard. Hart is not great, but at his best his been a low end starter, and I like what I saw Johnson last year.  So that's one position I feel good about and four that vary from I hope we could be alright to he'll be good in a few years.  I wish that was more like 4 to 1 the other way, since I don't see any more players coming in other than practice squaddies and retreads.  I think it will be mixed, sometimes they'll look good, others not so much.

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I'm still not thrilled with the right side of the line, but there's nothing I can do about it.  I feel pretty good about LT - C at this point.

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I'll feel a lot better once we spend resources on oline again.  Whitworth was top of the 2nd round, Zeitler was a 1st rd pick, Andre Smith was a 1st rd pick.  Boling and Bodine were both 4th rd picks.  Boling worked out, Bodine did not, but that was still 3 top 35 picks spend on online.  Currently we have:

Jonah, top 10 pick, happy about that
Jordan, 4th rd pick
Hopkins, UDFA who developed
XSF was a top 35 pick, but not by us and he has already been considered a bust and is a journeyman at this point
Hart, 7th rd pick cast off and on 2nd team

At the very least i'd like to add at least one more top 35 pick, if you accept XSF as a premium talent that has possibly been mishandled (I don't believe that, but i'm stretch to see justification, being the devils advocate).  If the value is there next draft, the 1st pick really should be oline unless the talent isn't close for BPA vs BOLA.  Dream scenario, we sign Warford 3 years, $21 million, draft a RT rd 1 next year, and now Burrow has a real offensive line for his entire rookie deal.  With as well as we hit WR value in rd 2, we can keep adding there if Higgins/Boyd can be a legit 1/2 options for the future.
 

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1 hour ago, THE DUKE said:

I'll feel a lot better once we spend resources on oline again.  Whitworth was top of the 2nd round, Zeitler was a 1st rd pick, Andre Smith was a 1st rd pick.  Boling and Bodine were both 4th rd picks.  Boling worked out, Bodine did not, but that was still 3 top 35 picks spend on online.  Currently we have:

Jonah, top 10 pick, happy about that
Jordan, 4th rd pick
Hopkins, UDFA who developed
XSF was a top 35 pick, but not by us and he has already been considered a bust and is a journeyman at this point
Hart, 7th rd pick cast off and on 2nd team

At the very least i'd like to add at least one more top 35 pick, if you accept XSF as a premium talent that has possibly been mishandled (I don't believe that, but i'm stretch to see justification, being the devils advocate).  If the value is there next draft, the 1st pick really should be oline unless the talent isn't close for BPA vs BOLA.  Dream scenario, we sign Warford 3 years, $21 million, draft a RT rd 1 next year, and now Burrow has a real offensive line for his entire rookie deal.  With as well as we hit WR value in rd 2, we can keep adding there if Higgins/Boyd can be a legit 1/2 options for the future.
 

We have a top 35 pick you missed. Unfortunately,  we used a few early picks on the oline that failed or look like they failed.  We haven't not been investing,  they've just missed.

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2 minutes ago, Beck Bristow said:

We have a top 35 pick you missed. Unfortunately,  we used a few early picks on the oline that failed or look like they failed.  We haven't not been investing,  they've just missed.

Oh yeah, Price.  I guess they tried at least, but oline is like QB, you keep taking swings until you get it right.

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The team appears set on the LT, LG and C.  Jonah will be given to grow, as will Jordan.  Hopkins has earned the spot.

The right side will be some combo of four players (Hart, Johnson, XSF, Price).  I haven't given up on Price yet, as the injuries he has suffered may not seem crippling per se, but to an o-lineman, they absolutely are.  The high  ankle sprain has to have healed by last preseason.  the plantar fasciitis, tjho, takes time, or surgery, or both.  Given the fact he was a FRP, I think they give him an open shot to win the job, as XSF is being paid like a backup.  Maybe he wins the job, maybe not, but Price still has two years on the contract. 

 

So the combos (RG-RT)

Price-Hart

Johnson-Hart

XSF-Hart

XSF-Johnson

Price- Johnson

 

So whoever wins it, we are still at 7.  Adeniji gets a spot.  Not sold on redmond, and three of the four guys I have competing for the starting right side all can play G, as can Adeniji, so I think the 9th spot is a tackle.  Right now, I say Prince over O'Shea, but that's based on draft spots.  It really is a coin flip.  

 

The last thing to consider is that we still have waiver priority, so the 8/9 guys could conceivably be in other camps right now

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