Kiwibrown Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 55 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said: Yeah, same if you ask me too but capitalism and everything. There is still plenty to be had with the top 1% holding a third of the nations wealth. That is where taxing the church is so small fry in comparison too taxing people properly who have money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 8 hours ago, Thomas5737 said: Yeah, same if you ask me too but capitalism and everything. There is still plenty to be had with the top 1% holding a third of the nations wealth. Oh I thought you were referring to just churches. 100 million for individuals? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 7 hours ago, Kiwibrown said: That is where taxing the church is so small fry in comparison too taxing people properly who have money. It doesn’t have to be one or the other. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DawgX Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 13 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: they don’t know me by my stage name in here pal. I still assumed that was you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dawgdish Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 14 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: I don’t think they be looking for future picks tbh, I think it would be multiple later picks like last year. Right. My premise is that if we have another season like we have the past couple, AB and Stef could be in danger of not making it into next season. So, if they were smart, they'd maximize their chances of getting more potential early contributors (in 2nd/3rd round) than dice throws or longer term developmental guys by hanging on to the 2nd rather than trading back with it. Nut up, prove your drafting prowess (which is still questionable TBH), and take a swing! I know you Sashi guys love you some trading back, but it's not that hard to understand is it? 😛 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdrawkcab321 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, dawgdish said: Right. My premise is that if we have another season like we have the past couple, AB and Stef could be in danger of not making it into next season. Agreed, I just don’t think any pick this year changes that nor is last year’s draft philosophy the issue. Our success or failure this season will be 90%+ determined by coaches and players currently on the roster or who will be brought in via FA. 2 minutes ago, dawgdish said: So, if they were smart, they'd maximize their chances of getting more potential early contributors (in 2nd/3rd round) than dice throws or longer term developmental guys by hanging on to the 2nd rather than trading back with it. Nut up, prove your drafting prowess (which is still questionable TBH), and take a swing! I know you Sashi guys love you some trading back, but it's not that hard to understand is it? 😛 It’s not hard to understand at all 🤷♂️ The idea of an “eye for talent” or drafting prowess is a myth. If someone has an ability to spot talent, there’s no reason they should ever miss on a pick, right? But they do, every GM, all the time. There are too many variables to pretend anyone has prospects figured out on draft day. Each pick is essentially a lottery ticket with higher picks having a better chance of hitting but are by no means a guarantee or anything close to it. I’m not advocating we do anything as of how, I have no clue who’s gonna be available or what deals may be on the table. I’m just saying that having more lottery tickets is preferable to less, especially when a quarter of your roster will end up on IR at some point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 12 minutes ago, sdrawkcab321 said: BuT wE cAn’T AfForD tHat! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdrawkcab321 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: BuT wE cAn’T AfForD tHat! Berrys cap magic will probably make the cap hit like 3M 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 minute ago, sdrawkcab321 said: Berrys cap magic will probably make the cap hit like 3M He’ll have Hargrave paying Watson’s cap number for us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DawgX Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 That's a lot of money but we desperately need a guy like Hargrave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
candyman93 Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 We shall see hmmm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dawgdish Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said: The idea of an “eye for talent” or drafting prowess is a myth. If someone has an ability to spot talent, there’s no reason they should ever miss on a pick, right? But they do, every GM, all the time. There are too many variables to pretend anyone has prospects figured out on draft day. Each pick is essentially a lottery ticket with higher picks having a better chance of hitting but are by no means a guarantee or anything close to it. No GM is going to bat 1.000, just like even great hitters aren't going to, and great QBs aren't going to complete every pass. I would think there are GMs who are better at hitting on picks than others (a John Dorsey vs a Ray Farmer), and thus have a higher percentage/average, but it would be interesting to see numbers crunched that account for the success of the picks as well as the circumstances (e.g. did they get Belichick for a DC or Joe Woods). I do agree our success is going to be mostly determined by the guys currently on our roster and a choice FA or trade than whoever we draft this year, but I really think we maximize our chances if we hit on a DL or WR contributor and that the odds are better grabbing one earlier than later. Edited March 4, 2023 by dawgdish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LETSGOBROWNIES Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 hour ago, dawgdish said: No GM is going to bat 1.000, just like even great hitters aren't going to, and great QBs aren't going to complete every pass. I would think there are GMs who are better at hitting on picks than others (a John Dorsey vs a Ray Farmer), and thus have a higher percentage/average, but it would be interesting to see numbers crunched that account for the success of the picks as well as the circumstances (e.g. did they get Belichick for a DC or Joe Woods). Not exactly what you are looking for, but I’ve posted this for almost a decade now. https://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448/how-nfl-teams-ignore-basic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally ”The problem, though, is that there are no guaranteed superstars — and Thaler and Massey have found that, given a long enough timeframe, no teams are any better at accurately evaluating prospects than others. Sure, a GM might hit a hot streak over the course of a few drafts, but long-term, they estimate that 95 to 100 percent of the difference in teams' odds of striking gold with any one pick is driven by chance. So the key isn't drafting better — it's just drafting more. As Cassey noted, there are a few teams out there following his philosophy. In a recent interview, Eric DeCosta — assistant GM of the perennially-successful Baltimore Ravens — dropped a hint about the identity of one of them: We look at the draft as, in some respects, a luck-driven process. The more picks you have, the more chances you have to get a good player. When we look at teams that draft well, it’s not necessarily that they’re drafting better than anybody else. It seems to be that they have more picks. There’s definitely a correlation between the amount of picks and drafting good players.” 1 hour ago, dawgdish said: I do agree our success is going to be mostly determined by the guys currently on our roster and a choice FA or trade than whoever we draft this year, but I really think we maximize our chances if we hit on a DL or WR contributor and that the odds are better grabbing one earlier than later. What you’re describing is what the article specifically references as the overconfidence effect. You become convinced that certain players are a “can’t” miss talent when such a thing doesn’t exist. This isn’t to say higher picks aren’t going to to give you a better shot, they do, but after the top handful of picks the odds start plummeting. This isn’t a trade out of the top 5 scenario where there’s likely a number of future pro bowlers to choose from. This is trade out of a roll of the dice pick for more roll of the dice picks (although those top 5 picks are hardly guarantees either). The take home point as it relates to this is that the hit you’re referring to doesn’t have to come in R2. We’d be more likely to hit on a DT if we took 2 in the 3rd as opposed to one in the second round. And this isn’t my opinion, it’s just the math. THAT’S why some of us liked Sashi’s approach (which is the same as BB’s approach or Ozzie’s approach fwiw). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NateDawg Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 I think I believe the aggression by Berry. Primarily because I think this is a make or break year with our head coach and head executive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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