2021 NBA Draft Thread

[Texansfan713]

57 minutes ago, kyle21121 said:

Why has Suggs fallen in the past few weeks in people’s minds? Just curious he seems like he’s going from a consensus top 4 player who was maybe the 2nd or 3rd overall pick to someone you maybe pass on at 4? What is the general thinking? It seems this happened awful quickly. I’m still rating him behind Green and Mobley but I would be very happy with any of those three at four. 
 

Why not take a chance on Kuminga? What @NYRaiderhas been saying seem to echo my thoughts. If he falls to you in the 5-8 range are you taking the safe pick just because who can maybe become a solid starter instead of swinging for the fences? 

he (suggs) was always behind cade, green and mobley to me. those 3 ceiling is better than suggs is. i can see those 3 being a legit first option whereas suggs ceiling is a 2nd option on a contending team. 

Edited July 1, 2021 by Texansfan713

[NYRaider]

3 minutes ago, Texansfan713 said:

he (suggs) was always behind cade, green and mobley to me. those 3 ceiling is better than suggs is. i can see those 3 being a legit first option whereas suggs ceiling is a 2nd option on a contending team. 

Meh. Suggs was the clear #3 guy at Gonzaga last season on a team that feasted on fringe D1 talent for the majority of the season. Really think he ends up being a Ball/Halliburton type PG rather than a superstar or all-star caliber player. 

[roger murdock]

4 hours ago, NYRaider said:

Finally someone that has actually watched him instead of anointing him the next LeBron/Luka. As you said there's a lot to like about him but there are definitely a few concerns as well. He shot the ball really well last year but it's a small sample size and he wasn't regarded as a great shooter coming into college. He was extremely dependent on being able to hit 3's and tough shots off the bounce to score because he wasn't able to consistently blow by guys. 

He's also viewed as a PG by a lot of people but I think he's better suited to be a secondary ball handler. 

He reminds me a lot of Jayson Tatum as a prospect. I think NBA spacing will definitely help him a ton and that he'll get stronger/more explosive as he gets older and his body develops. But I don't think that he'll be a transcendent talent that dominates from day one. I personally would probably take Jalen Green over him just because of the athletic profile. 

I agree. Like I think Cades BBIQ is miles apart from Jalen Green's and on another level. In fact Mobley and Cade might be the two smartest, most instinctual players I've seen since.... I dunno maybe Davis? Maybe Curry? Maybe Chris Paul? Like they are on another level and Jalen Green ain't there. (I think Mobley might be the #1 ive ever seen in this regard)

 

However, Jalen Green is the most insane athlete I've seen for a wing prospect. I compare his athletic profile to Randy Moss. Dude is built different. EXPLODES off the first step like hes shot out of a cannon. Glides down the court. His body control and coordination.... Its honestly breath taking. 

 

So this is why I like Green the most. How do you guard him 1v1? If you play up on him he will blow by literally everyone. Nobody is going to stop this kid from getting into open space if you press him. But hes such a good shooter if you sag off he's dropping a 3 in your face at 38%+ from deep. Hes a walking bucket. Once he gets to the point where he can make more advanced passes (right now he reads the help and thats it) hes going to be deadly. I will not be surprised, at all, if hes leading the NBA in scoring by his third season. 

 

Yeah Green ain't as polished or as smart as Cade/Mobley but he's the biggest walking bucket since Durant. And Durant took years before he became the all around beast he is today. And Cades much more athletic than KD, but obviously doesn't have the KD length and height that makes him unguardable. 

[NYRaider]

11 minutes ago, roger murdock said:

Yeah Green ain't as polished or as smart as Cade/Mobley but he's the biggest walking bucket since Durant. And Durant took years before he became the all around beast he is today. And Cades much more athletic than KD, but obviously doesn't have the KD length and height that makes him unguardable. 

Once Green starts hitting 3's with a little more consistency he'll be unstoppable. When he gets down hill in the half court it's a guaranteed bucket because he's so tall, long, and explosive. And he's going to absolutely feast in transition, flashed really good scoring off the bounce as well. He's basically the prototypical NBA wing scorer.  

[NYRaider]

Brandon Boston played meh at Kentucky but could see him being one of the steals of the draft. 

[roger murdock]

1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

Once Green starts hitting 3's with a little more consistency he'll be unstoppable. When he gets down hill in the half court it's a guaranteed bucket because he's so tall, long, and explosive. And he's going to absolutely feast in transition, flashed really good scoring off the bounce as well. He's basically the prototypical NBA wing scorer.  

If Houston takes him, which I hope they dont because I want him on my Cavs, but if they do this is my bold prediction:

• Jalen Green will average more PPG as a rookie than anyone since MJ (if drafted by the Rockets)

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, roger murdock said:

If Houston takes him, which I hope they dont because I want him on my Cavs, but if they do this is my bold prediction:

• Jalen Green will average more PPG as a rookie than anyone since MJ (if drafted by the Rockets)

He'd have to average 24.5+ to do that.

[NYRaider]

@roger murdock Green had 4 games where he struggled from 3, was a combined 1/26. But in there other 11 games he was 30/59 from deep.

[THE DUKE]

LOL

If you remove this guys seven best shooting games.....

And remove this guys four worst shooting games.....

Stats don't mean jack if you start just removing data that doesn't support your argument. Take away 25% of their best games from pretty much anyone and the stats won't look good.

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, THE DUKE said:

LOL

If you remove this guys seven best shooting games.....

And remove this guys four worst shooting games.....

Stats don't mean jack if you start just removing data that doesn't support your argument. Take away 25% of their best games from pretty much anyone and the stats won't look good.

Jalen Green is a streaky shooter, he had 4 games he really struggled in, shot well in most other games. Davion Mitchell struggled shooting the ball his first 3 years and in 2/3 of his final season. He had 7 games where he shot like he was Stephen Curry. Shot 33% from deep in the postseason when the games really mattered. 

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, THE DUKE said:

If you remove this guys seven best shooting games.....

Mitchell's 7 great shooting games came within like a 35 day span, where he shot 33/49 from beyond the arc. That 67% from deep would've been 24% higher than the NCAA career record holder at 43.5%. In that incredible shooting stretch Mitchell made 4.7 3's per game at a 67% clip, in his other 84 career games he averaged 0.9 3's per game at a 31% clip. Even with those games included he made 1.1 3's per game at a 36% clip. 

In his final 6 games, the NCAA tournament, he made 1.3 3's at a 37% clip. Over his 94 game career he also shot 65% from the FT line, terrible for a guard, and probably the worst FT% for a guard selected in the top 10 in NBA history. 

Should you question if his shooting will translate when he literally had 7 great shooting games over a month in a half span then returned to the mean when the games meant the most? Or should you trust that he's the greatest shooter in collegiate history by a wide span? 

Via the ringer:

Quote

 

• Made a huge leap as a 3-point shooter, going from 31 percent over his first two seasons to 45 percent as a junior. It could be an outlier season, but he looks the part.

• Subpar free throw shooter, which raises questions about his high 3-point shooting percentage as a junior.

 

 

[NYRaider]

6'1 2 guard that doesn't get to the line, struggles to hit FT when he does, and is a subpar 3 point shooter? Top 10 pick.

Edited July 2, 2021 by NYRaider

[Sllim Pickens]

11 hours ago, THE DUKE said:

LOL

If you remove this guys seven best shooting games.....

And remove this guys four worst shooting games.....

Stats don't mean jack if you start just removing data that doesn't support your argument. Take away 25% of their best games from pretty much anyone and the stats won't look good.

Isnt that how statistics work?  You take out the outliers at either end and find the majority.  Yes over an 11 game season someone will have an inflated 3P% based on 2 or 3 games so if you want to see how that may even out over a longer stretch, you have to adjust for outliers.  Maybe these outliers are too large of a percentage but I think they give good insight on what to expect on a regular basis.  With Mitchell you are getting a 32% shooter who when he is hot, you feed the ball but you cant expect 45% every game.  Over an 82 game season stats normalize and tend to be more accurate.  

[THE DUKE]

Outliers aren't 10-30% of a season.  Outliers would be 1-2 away from the norm.  Sure you remove those 7 best games, then if you want to normalize, you should also take out the worst shooting games as well.  It's cherry picking otherwise.

[Sllim Pickens]

6 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

Outliers aren't 10-30% of a season.  Outliers would be 1-2 away from the norm.  Sure you remove those 7 best games, then if you want to normalize, you should also take out the worst shooting games as well.  It's cherry picking otherwise.

Its a different way to analyze a player.  If I am drafting or playing against Davion Mitchell, I know not to count on him being a 3pt threat most of the time.  If he hits a couple early then you adjust for his 1 out of 20 games.  For Green we have an extremely small sample size, so yes its hard to remove games but is still valuable to review it multiple ways.  He had three games in which he went 0-6, 0-7, and 0-7 and two games in which he went 5-6 and 6-8.  That takes out a third of his season, but also shows you more of what to expect on a regular basis out of the gate. Without those games, he was a 39% shooter in the other 10 games and relatively consistent around that number.  So in the league you expect him to most nights provide you with 40% shooting from three but will obviously have some better and worse games.  Its a small sample size so looking at a per game basis is helpful and sheds light to potential if you can reduce those 0 for nights.