How Much is Justin Tucker Actually Worth?

[Jakuvious]

2 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Are you sure about that?

		Passing															0-19		20-29		30-39		40-49		50+		Scoring						Kickoffs
Rk	Player	From	To	AV	G	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Rate	Lng	Int	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	NY/A	ANY/A	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FG%	XPA	XPM	XP%	KO	KOYds	TB	TB%	KOAvg
1	Stephen Gostkowski	2006	2014	30	136		0	0		0	0	.0	0	0	0	0					3	3	81	77	98	88	81	62	17	13	280	243	86.8%	451	450	99.8%	833	53507	291	34.9%	64.2
2	Justin Tucker	2012	2020	41	141		0	1	.0	0	0	39.6	0	0	0	0	.0	0.00	0.00	0.00			74	74	88	85	95	86	59	42	316	287	90.8%	341	337	98.8%	776	49115	489	63.0%	63.3

 

Dude, everyone with a FG% higher than 86.8% (5 players, by the way), is an active player. 4 of them entered the league 2012 or later and did not yet qualify for the leaderboard, the 5th was Robbie Gould, who at the time sat at an 85.6%. So yes, of qualifying players, Gostkowski was leading the league in all-time FG%. This is not hard to look up.

Like I said, FG% has consistently climbed over the league's history. Gostkowski was that guy for awhile. Vanderjagt before that. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Just now, rich homie said:

What exactly is it that Tucker has done? I don't see how the jump from Tucker's career to say, a Vinatieri, Gostkowski, Prater, Hanson, etc. is worth using a first round pick over. 

Justin Tucker's average miss is from 50+, for starters. No other kicker in NFL history is close to that. Like...not even close.

Prater has a career FG% of 83.1, Justin Tucker has a career FG% of over 90%...NONE of the guys you mentioned have a career even close to 90%.

What he does is make more kicks, at a more consistent rate, at longer ranges, in any environment/climate/situation than any kicker in NFL history. Period.

[Daniel]

4 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

How many games has he lost y'all this year because he couldn't make a 30 yard FG? It was at least 2, right?

None.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 minute ago, Jakuvious said:

Dude, everyone with a FG% higher than 86.8% (5 players, by the way), is an active player. 4 of them entered the league 2012 or later and did not yet qualify for the leaderboard, the 5th was Robbie Gould, who at the time sat at an 85.6%. So yes, of qualifying players, Gostkowski was leading the league in all-time FG%. This is not hard to look up.

Like I said, FG% has consistently climbed over the league's history. Gostkowski was that guy for awhile. Vanderjagt before that. 

So I mean if your argument is that Tucker is the new "flavor of the week" and in a few years he'll be overtaken, I guess I can't refute that. I just don't think it'll happen.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Just now, Daniel said:

None.

So you're telling me the missed 45-yard FG with 19 seconds left in the Steelers game didn't happen?

Okay.

[Forge]

Just now, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

So you're telling me the missed 45-yard FG with 19 seconds left in the Steelers game didn't happen?

Okay.

I mean, you did say 30 yarder...which a 45 yarder is not lol

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Just now, Forge said:

I mean, you did say 30 yarder...which a 45 yarder is not lol

lol ok

[Forge]

Just now, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

lol ok

I'm just saying lol. I understand the spirit of what you are saying. 

[Jakuvious]

Just now, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

So I mean if your argument is that Tucker is the new "flavor of the week" and in a few years he'll be overtaken, I guess I can't refute that. I just don't think it'll happen.

My argument was that you throwing shade at Gostkowski's career is a bad take.

FG% has consistently climbed over league history. It's basically the same deal as passing efficiency stats. Jan Stenerud made the hall of fame as a 67% FG kicker. Morten Anderson was under 80%, and made an all-decade team in the 80s and 90s. Gary Anderson was considered automatic at 80.1%. Vinatieri was the guy at just over 83%. It is a very safe bet that Tucker will either regress slightly as he ages, and get passed by Butker or Lambo or Lutz or Boswell, or someone new will come in and set the next decade's standards. A fan of that team will someday undoubtedly be scoffing at anyone suggesting Tucker's 90% was ever good.

[Daniel]

Just now, Forge said:

I mean, you did say 30 yarder...which a 45 yarder is not lol

And of course there's the fact that that only would have tied the game, not won it.

So yeah.  0 game difference.  If you make a lot of assumptions, 1 games.

And that's the difference between a kicker that the fanbase is furious that we have to deal with and the best in the league.  That's the worst to first difference.

Which is the whole point.  How Seagulls doesn't grasp it at this point is beyond me.

[rich homie]

4 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Justin Tucker's average miss is from 50+, for starters. No other kicker in NFL history is close to that. Like...not even close.

Prater has a career FG% of 83.1, Justin Tucker has a career FG% of over 90%...NONE of the guys you mentioned have a career even close to 90%.

What he does is make more kicks, at a more consistent rate, at longer ranges, in any environment/climate/situation than any kicker in NFL history. Period.

Let's do some math then. Ignoring completely the changing rules and rising FG% among all kickers. The average team attempts like 30 field goals per season, with Justin Tucker's 90% that's 27 field goals made per year, or 81 points. With Matt Prater's 83%, that's 25 field goals made per year, or 75 points. Are you telling me you would give up a first rounder for an extra six points per season?

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 minute ago, Daniel said:

And of course there's the fact that that only would have tied the game, not won it.

So yeah.  0 game difference.  If you make a lot of assumptions, 1 games.

And that's the difference between a kicker that the fanbase is furious that we have to deal with and the best in the league.  That's the worst to first difference.

Which is the whole point.  How Seagulls doesn't grasp it at this point is beyond me.

IT LITERALLY LOST YOU THE GAME.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Just now, rich homie said:

Let's do some math then. Ignoring completely the changing rules and rising FG% among all kickers. The average team attempts like 30 field goals per season, with Justin Tucker's 90% that's 27 field goals made per year, or 81 points. With Matt Prater's 83%, that's 25 field goals made per year, or 75 points. Are you telling me you would give up a first rounder for an extra six points per season?

It's not just 6 points per season, it's the consistency and the knowledge that if I get within a certain range, we win. No other kicker has that. We literally just last night witnessed the difference between a league average kicker (or a JAG, rather) and Justin Tucker, and people are still here arguing over whether he provides more value than a league average kicker lol

[Daniel]

1 minute ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

IT LITERALLY LOST YOU THE GAME.

Literally, no it didn't.  That's not what literally means.

It literally prevented a tie, which would give the Titans a chance to win.  That's not the same as losing the game.  Not converting multiple third downs also lost us the game.  Allowing completed passes also lost us the game.

The backbone of your argument is a logical fallacy.  By your definition of cause, every bad play made by the Titans lost the game.  An upgrade at any position that improves any one of those things wins us the game.

And again, the Titans have one of the worst situations in the league.  Which should show you just how worthless kickers are.

[Jakuvious]

3 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

It's not just 6 points per season, it's the consistency and the knowledge that if I get within a certain range, we win. No other kicker has that. We literally just last night witnessed the difference between a league average kicker (or a JAG, rather) and Justin Tucker, and people are still here arguing over whether he provides more value than a league average kicker lol

Unless we're counting blocked FGs, the Chiefs have never lost a game in which a Harrison Butker miss was the difference in points scored. Is Butker also worth more than 1st round pick?