How Much is Justin Tucker Actually Worth?

[Jakuvious]

3 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

That's great that Gost is having a decent sea-checks stats- ah yes hsi 68% FG% this year and career 86% is comparable to Justin Tucker how, exactly?

Gostkowski was the most accurate kicker of all-time at a similar point in his career, to where Tucker is right now. FG% has constantly climbed league-wide. There are 27 active players in the top 50 all-time in FG%. It is highly likely that Tucker gets overtaken in a similar way as he gets older.

[Forge]

Just now, Tk3 said:

I think there is SOOO much fat in the average roster that you can cut a little bit out of any team for the proven and known quantity

Just my opinion

A little bit? Sure. But his post was talking 16 million. I mean, if I'm signing a guy at 16 million, he's not supposed to be "fat on the roster" 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Just now, Jakuvious said:

Gostkowski was the most accurate kicker of all-time at a similar point in his career, to where Tucker is right now. FG% has constantly climbed league-wide. There are 27 active players in the top 50 all-time in FG%. It is highly likely that Tucker gets overtaken in a similar way as he gets older.

Are you sure about that?

		Passing															0-19		20-29		30-39		40-49		50+		Scoring						Kickoffs
Rk	Player	From	To	AV	G	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Rate	Lng	Int	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	NY/A	ANY/A	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FG%	XPA	XPM	XP%	KO	KOYds	TB	TB%	KOAvg
1	Stephen Gostkowski	2006	2014	30	136		0	0		0	0	.0	0	0	0	0					3	3	81	77	98	88	81	62	17	13	280	243	86.8%	451	450	99.8%	833	53507	291	34.9%	64.2
2	Justin Tucker	2012	2020	41	141		0	1	.0	0	0	39.6	0	0	0	0	.0	0.00	0.00	0.00			74	74	88	85	95	86	59	42	316	287	90.8%	341	337	98.8%	776	49115	489	63.0%	63.3

 

[rich homie]

15 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

If you've read literally anything I've said, you'd know that one good year from a kicker isn't rare. It's the consistency, year over year, that separates Tucker. Tucker was a UDFA as well, I agree you shouldn't invest draft picks into college kickers. It's NEVER worked. Once the guys are established in the league, though? Sure, go for it.

You think Tucker is the first kicker to be consistently good over a long span? 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Just now, rich homie said:

You think Tucker is the first kicker to be consistently good over a long span? 

What other kicker has done what Tucker has done? And please bring the stats to support it.

[jrry32]

1 hour ago, diamondbull424 said:

People are speculating as to value, I did look at the page. It’s not trade a 1st round pick AND pay him $15m AAV. That wasn’t stated.

$15m is too rich for my blood, but Matt Judon is making $16m and I would EASILY find Tucker more valuable and swap their paychecks if I could. If we’re going to waste millions, I’d rather throw them at my elite kicker. The Ravens wasted how much on the Earl Thomas investment, I’d easily pay Tucker what we wasted on ET (which was close enough to 15m).

You’re assuming best case scenarios with your opportunity costs, which is fair enough because that’s why I would take 1st round picks over trades typically (elite value potential and rookie pay).

But in this hypothetical I’m assuming if we’ve got guaranteed knowledge (ahead of time) by some football deity that we’ve got a near 50/50 shot at an above average to good player, 5-10% of which would include our shot at an elite player, OR a guaranteed kicking GOAT (doesn’t matter the kickers name), I’d take the kicker.

——
Alternatively, if the Ravens had to put a legitimate price on Tucker’s value to the team vs the cap percentage of all players on the team, you could easily make the case that in such a scenario he’d be worth $15m AAV. He’s a top 5-10 impact player on this team. I’d rank him below only:

Lamar, Humphrey, Andrews, Brown Jr, C.Campbell, Peters (maybe), and B.Williams (maybe). So if all those players got their money by value alone, it wouldn’t be out of the question for me to think Tucker is worth $15m AAV, in such a hypothetical scenario.

But the 1st round pick and the ‘actual’ dollar value aren’t mutually exclusive concepts. Both are separate attempts at trying to figure out the value of an elite kicker. At least that was my interpretation.

I don't think you can easily make that case. Tucker plays only a few snaps each game.

1 hour ago, Ray Reed said:

No, I understand your point completely. That's what's frustrating. You're completely clueless as to how what you're explaining is - by nature - insanely inconsistent and I can't tell if you don't get it or you're just backed into a corner and feel the need to keep arguing.

You're creating a scenario wherein the two first-round picks used for Ramsey were ONLY USED ON DRAFT PICKS otherwise, and therefore overvalued because of said draft picks' bust-factor.

You're creating a scenario wherein the first round pick used for Tucker was ONLY USED IN A TRADE FOR ANOTHER ESTABLISHED PLAYER otherwise, and therefore undervalued because you can just get a different, more impactful player.

Why is that the case? Why are those first round picks in the Ramsey scenario not used on two Diggs-caliber players, instead of two potential bust draft picks?

Why is that Tucker pick used on a sure-fire elite player, instead of a potential bust first rounder like you're assuming is the case in the Ramsey deal?

It has everything to do with you having vehemently defended 2 1sts for Ramsey and therefore having two assume the alternative in that deal was two first round busts - to make the value work out in the Rams favor - instead of two established elite players at their position like you're assuming happens with the Tucker first rounder.

Again - it's inconsistent. That's what's bothering me. Not the opinion of what Tucker is worth. And you trying to lawyer up how your views are actually consistent and how I'm missing some point when you've created 2 entirely different scenarios based on the same resource (1st round pick) isn't going to change that.

No, you don't. My point with Ramsey was that people overvalued draft picks in relation to whether to trade them for established players or use them. The argument wasn't over whether Ramsey was worth two first round picks relative to what other established players are worth. I expect some would say he is and some would say he isn't. That's not my concern. I am creating this scenario with Tucker in relation to other established players because I doubt there are many people out there who honestly consider him worth the same as the caliber of ESTABLISHED player you could acquire for a first. It's really that simple. It's not inconsistent. Continue grasping at straws.

[Tk3]

FFS why are you two still arguing about Jalen Ramsey?!?!?!

[Daniel]

7 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

That's great that Gost is having a decent sea-checks stats- ah yes hsi 68% FG% this year and career 86% is comparable to Justin Tucker how, exactly?

In the only one I offered: nailing a game winning 55 yard field goal.

3 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

I think there is SOOO much fat in the average roster that you can cut a little bit out of any team for the proven and known quantity

Just my opinion

This doesn't exist.

2 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

Gostkowski was the most accurate kicker of all-time at a similar point in his career, to where Tucker is right now. FG% has constantly climbed league-wide. There are 27 active players in the top 50 all-time in FG%. It is highly likely that Tucker gets overtaken in a similar way as he gets older.

This.  And that's the whole point.  An elite kicker does not really win you enough extra games to be worth 15 million or a first round pick.

But I don't know.  Maybe the Ravens fans want to offer the Titans multiple firsts, then they can have TWO great kickers!  They'll be unstoppable.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Just now, Daniel said:

In the only one I offered: nailing a game winning 55 yard field goal.

How many games has he lost y'all this year because he couldn't make a 30 yard FG? It was at least 2, right?

[jrry32]

1 hour ago, diamondbull424 said:

You’re being dense here. There is indeed a flaw in your thinking. So you shouldn’t call guys names for point it out. It’s not like he’s saying you’re a terrible person or something.

You are stuck on the idea that in one scenario that 1st round pick provides a Stefon Diggs, but in another scenario that it provides a bust 50% of the time.

In one scenario you assume only the best case scenario of a trade acquisition working out like the one with Diggs, yet don’t include possibility for a failure. Diggs worked out, but Joey Galloway, Randy Moss, Percy Harvin, and Deion Branch are just a few names that didn’t work out too well for teams trading for them.

If we apply the ‘same energy’ to the Ramsey deal, the Rams gave up Stefon Diggs, Brett Favre, and Randy Moss for Jalen Ramsey instead of a good player and two scrubs. That level of thinking isn’t consistent with this scenario. You’re suddenly ONLY entrenched on the concept that the 1st round pick IS Stefon Diggs or Hopkins without acknowledging that pick could be a draft bust or a trade bust as well. Or acknowledging that perhaps the team missed out on both those hypothetical deals and the Tucker deal was the only deal left.

Le sigh.

1. I didn't call him a name.

2. I'm not stuck on the one scenario that provides Diggs. I am using Diggs as an example of the sort of established player a first round pick will land you in a trade. I already explained that very clearly. We're not talking about drafting with the pick.

[Forge]

Just now, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Are you sure about that?

		Passing															0-19		20-29		30-39		40-49		50+		Scoring						Kickoffs
Rk	Player	From	To	AV	G	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Rate	Lng	Int	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	NY/A	ANY/A	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FGA	FGM	FG%	XPA	XPM	XP%	KO	KOYds	TB	TB%	KOAvg
1	Stephen Gostkowski	2006	2014	30	136		0	0		0	0	.0	0	0	0	0					3	3	81	77	98	88	81	62	17	13	280	243	86.8%	451	450	99.8%	833	53507	291	34.9%	64.2
2	Justin Tucker	2012	2020	41	141		0	1	.0	0	0	39.6	0	0	0	0	.0	0.00	0.00	0.00			74	74	88	85	95	86	59	42	316	287	90.8%	341	337	98.8%	776	49115	489	63.0%	63.3

 

Think he meant that in 2014, Ghost was the most accurate kicker in the NFL up until that time (likely with some sort of threshold), though he was actually passed by Dan Bailey around that time who I believe held the record for a couple of years before falling off himself. 

[Tk3]

Just now, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

How many games has he lost y'all this year because he couldn't make a 30 yard FG? It was at least 2, right?

[rich homie]

1 minute ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

What other kicker has done what Tucker has done? And please bring the stats to support it.

What exactly is it that Tucker has done? I don't see how the jump from Tucker's career to say, a Vinatieri, Gostkowski, Prater, Hanson, etc. is worth using a first round pick over. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Just now, Forge said:

Think he meant that in 2014, Ghost was the most accurate kicker in the NFL up until that time (likely with some sort of threshold), though he was actually passed by Dan Bailey around that time who I believe held the record for a couple of years before falling off himself. 

Tucker could still fall off, but there's no sign of that. And his prime is objectively better than any of those guys.

Will there be another Tucker down the road? Perhaps.

[rich homie]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

Think he meant that in 2014, Ghost was the most accurate kicker in the NFL up until that time (likely with some sort of threshold), though he was actually passed by Dan Bailey around that time who I believe held the record for a couple of years before falling off himself. 

A record that once belonged to the great Mike Vanderjagt