How Much is Justin Tucker Actually Worth?

[incognito_man]

23 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Justin Tucker just won us a game on a 55 yard FG on a freaking icy field in windy conditions lol I'd say that's just as much value as someone like Marcus Peters who is a ballhawk and can "win" you games with that ability.

And actually to retort your argument, we traded for Yannick Ngakoue and he still doesn't provide as much value to our team as Justin Tucker does.

An elite kicker is valuable on 15% of the field (30yd line to 45yd line). In that range, he is successful 10% more of the time.

I'd prefer a player that turns that 55yd FG into a 45yd FG (on offense) and a player that turns a 45 yd FG into a 55 yd FG (on defense). Because that player is also valuable everywhere else on the field, and equally as valuable in the small range of the field where the difference between an elite kicker.

This isn't rocket science, people. Everyone else in the NFL has figured this out already for us. We know this because kickers aren't paid $15million lol.

[MWil23]

16 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I think that goes without saying, right?

looks around the room

*Heads into the NFL Comparison forum to start a Derek Henry vs. Nick Chubb vs. Justin Tucker thread*

[diamondbull424]

2 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I'm assuming that's the caliber of player who will be available based on recent history. As for cap space, you may not want to look at page 1 of this thread lol.

People are speculating as to value, I did look at the page. It’s not trade a 1st round pick AND pay him $15m AAV. That wasn’t stated.

$15m is too rich for my blood, but Matt Judon is making $16m and I would EASILY find Tucker more valuable and swap their paychecks if I could. If we’re going to waste millions, I’d rather throw them at my elite kicker. The Ravens wasted how much on the Earl Thomas investment, I’d easily pay Tucker what we wasted on ET (which was close enough to 15m).

You’re assuming best case scenarios with your opportunity costs, which is fair enough because that’s why I would take 1st round picks over trades typically (elite value potential and rookie pay).

But in this hypothetical I’m assuming if we’ve got guaranteed knowledge (ahead of time) by some football deity that we’ve got a near 50/50 shot at an above average to good player, 5-10% of which would include our shot at an elite player, OR a guaranteed kicking GOAT (doesn’t matter the kickers name), I’d take the kicker.

——
Alternatively, if the Ravens had to put a legitimate price on Tucker’s value to the team vs the cap percentage of all players on the team, you could easily make the case that in such a scenario he’d be worth $15m AAV. He’s a top 5-10 impact player on this team. I’d rank him below only:

Lamar, Humphrey, Andrews, Brown Jr, C.Campbell, Peters (maybe), and B.Williams (maybe). So if all those players got their money by value alone, it wouldn’t be out of the question for me to think Tucker is worth $15m AAV, in such a hypothetical scenario.

But the 1st round pick and the ‘actual’ dollar value aren’t mutually exclusive concepts. Both are separate attempts at trying to figure out the value of an elite kicker. At least that was my interpretation.

[KhanYouDigIt]

Just now, Tk3 said:

How dare you say something so chaotic in an otherwise very stable thread!

Lambo with a 95% FG% the last 4 seasons

Tucker with a 92% FG% the last  4 seasons

 

just sayin

[Tk3]

Just now, incognito_man said:

This isn't rocket science, people. Everyone else in the NFL has figured this out already for us. We know this because kickers aren't paid $15million lol.

It's less about "should kickers be paid more?" vs "is this one specific kicker so far and away better than the alternative options that it is worth the premium?"

I feel like you're deconstructing the argument in the wrong way

I don't think you move the entire kicker salary band upward.. I think you need to have an outlier salary for a specific player who has a SIGNIFICANT value over replacement at his position

[incognito_man]

Just now, Tk3 said:

It's less about "should kickers be paid more?" vs "is this one specific kicker so far and away better than the alternative options that it is worth the premium?"

I feel like you're deconstructing the argument in the wrong way

I don't think you move the entire kicker salary band upward.. I think you need to have an outlier salary for a specific player who has a SIGNIFICANT value over replacement at his position

his value over replacement isn't that significant relative to the value over replacement of all the other positions on the field. I'm deconstructing the argument perfectly. There's no argument against it. A player that can turn a 55yd FG into a 45yd attempt for a slightly worse kicker (say 10%) is just as valuable as a kicker who can make a 55yd kick 10% more of the time. And the kicker's increased value is only realized on 15% of the field.

If I'm wrong, elite kickers would get paid more. They're not. This is a billion dollar industry with margins tighter than...[insert something naughty]. If I can figure this out in 2 minutes at my desk making $100k/year, I can promise you those people making 100x my salary have people that have considered this as well lol.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Just now, incognito_man said:

An elite kicker is valuable on 15% of the field (30yd line to 45yd line). In that range, he is successful 10% more of the time.

I'd prefer a player that turns that 55yd FG into a 45yd FG (on offense) and a player that turns a 45 yd FG into a 55 yd FG (on defense). Because that player is also valuable everywhere else on the field, and equally as valuable in the small range of the field where the difference between an elite kicker.

This isn't rocket science, people. Everyone else in the NFL has figured this out already for us. We know this because kickers aren't paid $15million lol.

And that 10% of the time nets you how many more wins per year than a kicker who misses? Furthermore, what about the consistency in all other ranges year-after-year? Sure, an average kicker might have one year where he's perfect from 30-45 but other years he'll miss 4-5 or more kicks from there. Justin Tucker is automatic every single year from all ranges, in any situation, in any environment. I mean heck, look at the Jags fan in here throwing around Josh Lambo because he's had 3 good years lol Justin Tucker's been doing that same thing for 10 years. No other kicker has ever done that. Not Janikowski, not Vinatieri. Nobody. And the only reason Tucker's FG% takes a hit in certain years is because we just ran him out there to kick 55+ yarders for fun in losing seasons lol

My argument is that there is no player as consistent at his position as Justin Tucker is at his, and to me that carries an extraordinary amount of value with it - same as skill position players, but even the best skill position players aren't going to lock their guy down 100% of the time.

[Tk3]

4 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

People are speculating as to value, I did look at the page. It’s not trade a 1st round pick AND pay him $15m AAV. That wasn’t stated.

$15m is too rich for my blood, but Matt Judon is making $16m and I would EASILY find Tucker more valuable and swap their paychecks if I could. If we’re going to waste millions, I’d rather throw them at my elite kicker. The Ravens wasted how much on the Earl Thomas investment, I’d easily pay Tucker what we wasted on ET (which was close enough to 15m).

You’re assuming best case scenarios with your opportunity costs, which is fair enough because that’s why I would take 1st round picks over trades typically (elite value potential and rookie pay).

But in this hypothetical I’m assuming if we’ve got guaranteed knowledge (ahead of time) by some football deity that we’ve got a near 50/50 shot at an above average to good player, 5-10% of which would include our shot at an elite player, OR a guaranteed kicking GOAT (doesn’t matter the kickers name), I’d take the kicker.

——
Alternatively, if the Ravens had to put a legitimate price on Tucker’s value to the team vs the cap percentage of all players on the team, you could easily make the case that in such a scenario he’d be worth $15m AAV. He’s a top 5-10 impact player on this team. I’d rank him below only:

Lamar, Humphrey, Andrews, Brown Jr, C.Campbell, Peters (maybe), and B.Williams (maybe). So if all those players got their money by value alone, it wouldn’t be out of the question for me to think Tucker is worth $15m AAV, in such a hypothetical scenario.

But the 1st round pick and the ‘actual’ dollar value aren’t mutually exclusive concepts. Both are separate attempts at trying to figure out the value of an elite kicker. At least that was my interpretation.

There it is

[Ray Reed]

4 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I'm getting frustrated because you're either pretending not to understand the point or actually don't understand the point. Either ways, you continue to swing and miss on pointing out inconsistencies. My argument w/r/t first round picks is that they're overvalued because of how many people think they're generally worth more than established great/elite players. What I am saying here is that I would not trade a first for Justin Tucker when I could trade a first for an established great/elite player at a MORE VALUABLE POSITION. Stefon Diggs is the example of that. Do you still not understand?

No, I understand your point completely. That's what's frustrating. You're completely clueless as to how what you're explaining is - by nature - insanely inconsistent and I can't tell if you don't get it or you're just backed into a corner and feel the need to keep arguing.

You're creating a scenario wherein the two first-round picks used for Ramsey were ONLY USED ON DRAFT PICKS otherwise, and therefore overvalued because of said draft picks' bust-factor.

You're creating a scenario wherein the first round pick used for Tucker was ONLY USED IN A TRADE FOR ANOTHER ESTABLISHED PLAYER otherwise, and therefore undervalued because you can just get a different, more impactful player.

Why is that the case? Why are those first round picks in the Ramsey scenario not used on two Diggs-caliber players, instead of two potential bust draft picks?

Why is that Tucker pick used on a sure-fire elite player, instead of a potential bust first rounder like you're assuming is the case in the Ramsey deal?

It has everything to do with you having vehemently defended 2 1sts for Ramsey and therefore having two assume the alternative in that deal was two first round busts - to make the value work out in the Rams favor - instead of two established elite players at their position like you're assuming happens with the Tucker first rounder.

Again - it's inconsistent. That's what's bothering me. Not the opinion of what Tucker is worth. And you trying to lawyer up how your views are actually consistent and how I'm missing some point when you've created 2 entirely different scenarios based on the same resource (1st round pick) isn't going to change that.

 

[BayRaider]

He;s the GOAT man. Heck when they got to the 47 yard line and it was a 64 yard FG, I'm like, this is probably over lol. Tucker will tie the record.

[Tk3]

There are definitely like.. 3 distinct arguments happening here over top of each other, and they are all getting blended into a chaotic jumble and its hilarious

[incognito_man]

Just now, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

And that 10% of the time nets you how many more wins per year than a kicker who misses?

an equal number as an offensive or defensive player who can create a 5-10 yd advantage over average only playing when the teams have the ball between the 30 and 45 yard line...

and fewer than an offensive or defensive player who can do that AND play on the other 85% of the field where they are equally as valuable.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

2 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

an equal number as an offensive or defensive player who can create a 5-10 yd advantage over average only playing when the teams have the ball between the 30 and 45 yard line...

and fewer than an offensive or defensive player who can do that AND play on the other 85% of the field where they are equally as valuable.

Do you think Justin Tucker has won us more games than Matthew Judon this year?

[incognito_man]

1 minute ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Do you think Justin Tucker has won us more games than Matthew Judon this year?

what are their respective DYARs?

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Just now, incognito_man said:

what are their respective DYARs?

Idk, someone else might have to look that up, I can't seem to find it (or maybe I just don't have access to it?)