How Much is Justin Tucker Actually Worth?

[bigbadbuff]

Real question. In a time where kickers are so unbelievably inconsistent, Justin Tucker continues to be absolute nails.

Is it inconceivable to say he’s worth 15-20m AAV?

It sounds CRAZY, but having a Kicker that good is such an advantage.

 

Thoughts?

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

He's the only kicker I've ever witnessed where you can be 55 yards away, on a windy/slippery night and be 100% confident that the game is over.

I don't know how you put a value on that.

[GW21]

Didn't he miss a short one a week or two ago? He's obviously one of, if not the best kickers in the game, but to me that's wayyy too much money to invest in a kicker imo. Kickers are definitely important to winning games in the NFL, but that'd be a tough pill to swallow for me personally.  

[RaidersAreOne]

No chance a Kicker is worth $15-20M.

[August4th]

20 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

He's the only kicker I've ever witnessed where you can be 55 yards away, on a windy/slippery night and be 100% confident that the game is over.

I don't know how you put a value on that.

if a team like the Bears offered their 1st rd pick for him, would you want the Ravens to take it?

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

Just now, August4th said:

if a team like the Bears offered their 1st rd pick for him, would you want the Ravens to take it?

I mean honestly, I don't think I would even take 1st alone for him. We traded away Kaare Vedvik for a freaking 5th. I would have to think Tucker would be worth a 1st + more. 

3 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said:

No chance a Kicker is worth $15-20M.

I feel like people don't truly understand how valuable a great kicker is until you don't have one or until you do. And with Tucker, we're not just talking about a good kicker in the NFL, we're talking about what is going to be considered the GOAT at his position.

[Forge]

There are different types of value. Financially, I'm not giving him 15-20 million. I mean, George Kittle and Travis Kelce are at the bottom of that range. 

However, would I have given the Bears any grief for giving up their first round pick for him after the double doink? Absolutely not. 

[Blackstar12]

23 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I mean honestly, I don't think I would even take 1st alone for him. We traded away Kaare Vedvik for a freaking 5th. I would have to think Tucker would be worth a 1st + more. 

I feel like people don't truly understand how valuable a great kicker is until you don't have one or until you do. And with Tucker, we're not just talking about a good kicker in the NFL, we're talking about what is going to be considered the GOAT at his position.

Colts held on to Adam V one year to long and he cost the Colts 3 games last year. Colts new kicker Blankenship is way better. He’s also been clutch for my fantasy team. Still wouldn’t give up a 1st for any kicker though.

Edited December 15, 2020 by Blackstar12

[rich homie]

8 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I mean honestly, I don't think I would even take 1st alone for him. We traded away Kaare Vedvik for a freaking 5th. I would have to think Tucker would be worth a 1st + more. 

I feel like people don't truly understand how valuable a great kicker is until you don't have one or until you do. And with Tucker, we're not just talking about a good kicker in the NFL, we're talking about what is going to be considered the GOAT at his position.

Bruh

[vikingsrule]

I’m guessing Zimmer would be happy to throw a first round pick at him after his years of dealing with shaky kickers.

[jrry32]

19 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I mean honestly, I don't think I would even take 1st alone for him. We traded away Kaare Vedvik for a freaking 5th. I would have to think Tucker would be worth a 1st + more. 

I feel like people don't truly understand how valuable a great kicker is until you don't have one or until you do. And with Tucker, we're not just talking about a good kicker in the NFL, we're talking about what is going to be considered the GOAT at his position.

Rams fans understand that better than just about anybody. I wouldn't pay Tucker anything approaching that, and trading a first for him is nuts.

[Daniel]

18 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I mean honestly, I don't think I would even take 1st alone for him.

Well, luckily, I don't think anyone will offer that, so no worries.

I would be really hesitant to give even a Day 2 pick for any kicker.  And I'm a Titans fan.

[jrry32]

Ask yourself this: What's the statistical difference between Justin Tucker and a league average Kicker? Here are the mean and the median averages for NFL Kickers this year:

FG%

Average - 84.2%

Median - 82.2%

PAT%

Mean - 93.2%

Median - 93.5%

Assuming Tucker and the League Average Kicker both attempt 30 FGs and 50 PATs, here's what the difference would be:

Tucker

28/30 FGs

49/50 PATs

League Average Kicker

25/30 FGs

47/50 PATs

That means the difference between the two would be 11 points over a season. Tucker is valuable. Tucker is the best kicker of all time. But he's not nearly as valuable as some are saying.

(The Tucker averages are based on his past five seasons.)

Edited December 15, 2020 by jrry32

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

3 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Ask yourself this: What's the statistical difference between Justin Tucker and a league average Kicker? Here are the mean and the median averages for NFL Kickers this year:

FG%

Average - 84.2%

Median - 82.2%

PAT%

Mean - 93.2%

Median - 93.5%

Assuming Tucker and the League Average Kicker both attempt 30 FGs and 50 PATs, here's what the difference would be:

Tucker

28/30 FGs

49/50 PATs

League Average Kicker

25/30 FGs

47/50 PATs

That means the difference between the two would be 11 points over a season. Tucker is valuable. Tucker is the best kicker of all time. But he's not nearly as valuable as some are saying.

(The Tucker averages are based on his past five seasons.)

Tucker's misses basically ALL come from 50+. Can any other kicker say that? There have been graphs upon graphs showcasing just how much better Justin Tucker is than your average kicker. What you're doing here is disingenuous.

Take a look: https://www.footballperspective.com/justin-tuckers-average-missed-field-goal-comes-from-over-50-yards/

[jrry32]

4 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Tucker's misses basically ALL come from 50+. Can any other kicker say that? There have been graphs upon graphs showcasing just how much better Justin Tucker is than your average kicker. What you're doing here is disingenuous.

Take a look: https://www.footballperspective.com/justin-tuckers-average-missed-field-goal-comes-from-over-50-yards/

What I'm doing isn't remotely disingenuous. Ka'imi Fairbairn is basically the league average kicker this year (83.3% on FGs and 93.5% on PATs). He's 12/12 inside 40, 5-7 from 40 to 49, and 3-5 from 50+.