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Weak 15: Jalen Hurts our Draft position


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4 hours ago, Jeezla said:

I coud maybe see Schwartz getting canned if we lose the next two weeks and the defense keeps giving up 400+ passing yards. Doug and Howie are here for at least next year.

I know people on here hate Schwartz, but he’s gotten a lot out of this defense with a dearth of talent at LB, CB #2, and Safety. Also with little to no complimentary football from the offense or special teams (in fact, an offense that had led the league in turn overs most of the season). 
 

The defense hasn’t been great, but given the circumstances they’ve been under it could and probably should be a lot worse.

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32 minutes ago, BLick12 said:

I know people on here hate Schwartz, but he’s gotten a lot out of this defense with a dearth of talent at LB, CB #2, and Safety. Also with little to no complimentary football from the offense or special teams (in fact, an offense that had led the league in turn overs most of the season). 
 

The defense hasn’t been great, but given the circumstances they’ve been under it could and probably should be a lot worse.

It's the same thing with shorts every year. He sits on his heavily invested elite Dline and hopes no one else gets beat, he never adjusts. We can say jacquette did an admirable job against dhop all we want but where was his help over the top? Jim is not a good DC.

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57 minutes ago, Daimonas said:

It's the same thing with shorts every year. He sits on his heavily invested elite Dline and hopes no one else gets beat, he never adjusts. We can say jacquette did an admirable job against dhop all we want but where was his help over the top? Jim is not a good DC.

So he shouldn’t lean on the highest paid dline in football? 

Clearly this gamelan was to try and make Murray beat them with his arm rather than his legs, but that’s going to be a tough assignment when you don’t have a single starter in the defensive back field playing. To Hopkins credit, he can run routes out of every position, which makes it hard to just roll coverage to him, especially when you need to spy the QB. 
 

And this is even with a guy playing over the top... 

And fwiw, I don’t always agree with Schwartz personnel decisions or schematics, but it’s hard for me to say he’s committed fireable offenses this season, especially when you compare all three phases of the game.

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2 hours ago, BLick12 said:

Watching yesterday’s game solidified that Wentz has huge issues in his game. It makes me wonder without looking at the tape if he was just a product of a good oline. Time in the pocket can make every QB look great. Granted the oline this year has been historically bad, but watching Hurts, a rookie, and fairly undeveloped passer, make plays in spite of poor protection and throwing guys open is such a huge indictment on Wentz’s game. 

To be fair to Wentz. He hasn't always looked this way, even when pressured. He's a shell of his former self and his former self wasn't the most accurate starter out there anyways. He was a high variance QB. Carson is a shell of his former self. He isn't trusting his OL or what he's seeing. He's loose with his mechanics. Etc.

Hurts made some nice throws, but he also made quite a few bad ones. The one where he anticipated Ward for a TD was nice. He bailed on pockets he didn't need to bail on, but it works cause he has more mobility to make plays happen with his legs and get yardage. He can make guys miss in the open field. 

I would say the biggest positive Hurts has going for him right now is that he's calm and isn't pressing like Carson has constantly been doing this season.

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21 minutes ago, TheRealMcCoy said:

To be fair to Wentz. He hasn't always looked this way, even when pressured. He's a shell of his former self and his former self wasn't the most accurate starter out there anyways. He was a high variance QB. Carson is a shell of his former self. He isn't trusting his OL or what he's seeing. He's loose with his mechanics. Etc.

Hurts made some nice throws, but he also made quite a few bad ones. The one where he anticipated Ward for a TD was nice. He bailed on pockets he didn't need to bail on, but it works cause he has more mobility to make plays happen with his legs and get yardage. He can make guys miss in the open field. 

I would say the biggest positive Hurts has going for him right now is that he's calm and isn't pressing like Carson has constantly been doing this season.

Like I said, Hurts is still unrefined as a passer. He’s going to make mistakes, but he also showed he was willing to throw timing routes to this same corps that Wentz refused. He threw guys open and made a few high caliber throws (the deep out he threw to Reagor(?) really stood out to me with a defender underneath and over the top). Throws we haven’t seen all season. 

I agree on fleeing the pocket too quickly on a few and some forced throws here and there, but overall, I think there’s a lot to like about Hurts’ performance again this week. 
 

As for Wentz historically, I’d be curious what his stats look like under pressure. As you referenced, he had accuracy issues before too and he had issues with batted balls because of his windup and poor mechanics early on. But we’ve had such a great and consistent line for much of his tenure, I feel as though this is the first time we’ve seen him under consistent pressure and it’s not pretty. 
 

 

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2 hours ago, BLick12 said:

Like I said, Hurts is still unrefined as a passer. He’s going to make mistakes, but he also showed he was willing to throw timing routes to this same corps that Wentz refused. He threw guys open and made a few high caliber throws (the deep out he threw to Reagor(?) really stood out to me with a defender underneath and over the top). Throws we haven’t seen all season. 

I agree on fleeing the pocket too quickly on a few and some forced throws here and there, but overall, I think there’s a lot to like about Hurts’ performance again this week. 
 

As for Wentz historically, I’d be curious what his stats look like under pressure. As you referenced, he had accuracy issues before too and he had issues with batted balls because of his windup and poor mechanics early on. But we’ve had such a great and consistent line for much of his tenure, I feel as though this is the first time we’ve seen him under consistent pressure and it’s not pretty. 
 

 

Wentz passer rating rank among QBs w/ at least 200 drop backs, per PFF:

2020- 28th out of 36 (48.6)

2019- 9th out of 35 (78.8)

2018- 14th out of 37 (76.9)

2017- 4th out of 36 (81.7)

2016- 33rd out of 34 (32.8)

 

Pressure rate by season

2020- 37.3%

2019- 35.8%

2018- 31.3%

2017- 35.7%

2016- 29.8%

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10 hours ago, RandyMossIsBoss said:

Wentz passer rating rank among QBs w/ at least 200 drop backs, per PFF:

2020- 28th out of 36 (48.6)

2019- 9th out of 35 (78.8)

2018- 14th out of 37 (76.9)

2017- 4th out of 36 (81.7)

2016- 33rd out of 34 (32.8)

 

Pressure rate by season

2020- 37.3%

2019- 35.8%

2018- 31.3%

2017- 35.7%

2016- 29.8%

Thanks for sharing. It’s interesting to see the pressure rate is so similar this year, where it feels like based on the eye test, that he’s under a lot more heat regularly.
 

Some of the pressure rate might also be a product of him holding the ball and trying to create plays, as he has consistently done throughout his career (for better often than worse until this year). 
 

I’d be curious if there’s more granular pressure stats i.e indicators for how quickly the pressure is created. It seems like this year more so than any, we’ve had a lot of issues with general oline performance, blitz pickup by our backs and just poor QB awareness/recognition. 
 

Carson has always had some issues with his game (mechanics, accuracy, hero complex) but it is just baffling how bad his drop off has been. 

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2 hours ago, BLick12 said:

Thanks for sharing. It’s interesting to see the pressure rate is so similar this year, where it feels like based on the eye test, that he’s under a lot more heat regularly.
 

Some of the pressure rate might also be a product of him holding the ball and trying to create plays, as he has consistently done throughout his career (for better often than worse until this year). 
 

I’d be curious if there’s more granular pressure stats i.e indicators for how quickly the pressure is created. It seems like this year more so than any, we’ve had a lot of issues with general oline performance, blitz pickup by our backs and just poor QB awareness/recognition. 
 

Carson has always had some issues with his game (mechanics, accuracy, hero complex) but it is just baffling how bad his drop off has been. 

I would agree, off the eye test this is easily the worst OL we've had. Pressure% alone implies the pass pro was similar in 2017, 2019 and 2020, but we all know that's just not true. I will dig into a bit more later, because there are time to throw numbers out there, as well as vs blitz, etc., so we can maybe paint of picture with all those numbers. If I had to guess, the 2017 pressure rate being so close to 2020 is like you said, Carson would has always held the ball a long time to extend plays and in 2017 it worked beautifully more often than not. 

Worth noting that "pressure" is always applied pretty liberally, and obviously not all are created equal:

-OL not picking up a blitzer, QB sees free runner and immediately chucks it to RBs feet = 1 pressure

-OL blocking for 3 seconds, DT finally breaking free towards QB, QB sees it, steps up to evade it, completes throw = 1 pressure

See what I mean?

 

2020 our pass pro has been worse than before, which seemed to only amplify Wentz's already bad habits (such as holding ball too long)... but ultimately I still don't think there's any way we can actually explain Wentz's drop-off, it's just so bizarre. Especially after seeing Hurts play, and show that the offense indeed has the pieces to put up 20+ points and look smooth (w/out garbage time).

 

 

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