New QB options/opinions moving into 2021

[Raves]

1 hour ago, tyler735 said:

Disagree. I think he can be a Kirk Cousins (without folding in big games like Kirk is so well known for) type QB. Not a guy that will wow you with physical ability, but a guy that is very capable of getting the ball where it needs to go and let his playmakers utilize their talents to take care of the rest. We have plenty of playmakers on the roster that just need a quality distributor to get them the ball. Mac Jones looks very capable of doing so. Easily worth a late 1st round pick.

I like Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, and Jones in the 1st round (obviously not getting Lawrence). Lance and Trask are guys that strike me as future busts.

And Kirk Cousins was rightfully drafted in the 3rd round.  Just because one player of a mold worked out doesn't mean you should overdraft the next person that looks like they'd be in a similar mold.  Mac Jones should be a 2nd/3rd round draft pick that you hope plays above their draft position.

I mean Brady was rightfully drafted in the 6th round based on his college career/abilities, he just massively outplayed his draft position.  It's like saying we should've drafted Lance Moore in the 2nd round because of what he accomplished in the NFL when he was rightfully an UDFA.

[tyler735]

45 minutes ago, Raves said:

And Kirk Cousins was rightfully drafted in the 3rd round.  Just because one player of a mold worked out doesn't mean you should overdraft the next person that looks like they'd be in a similar mold.  Mac Jones should be a 2nd/3rd round draft pick that you hope plays above their draft position.

Yes guys like Dak, Cousins, Brees, Brady, Wilson, etc. were drafted after the 1st round. That was just bad evaluation by teams and most teams would surely be glad to take these guys much higher in a redraft. Also comparing him to a rich man's Kirk Cousins (what Cousins currently is) isn't the same as comparing him to Kirk Cousins as a prospect coming out. Jones is undoubtedly the better "prospect".

That said, many sites predict Mac Jones as a 1st/2nd round pick, so it's kind of a moot point as it's unlikely he doesn't go in the 1st 2 rounds from everything I've read.

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I mean Brady was rightfully drafted in the 6th round based on his college career/abilities, he just massively outplayed his draft position.  It's like saying we should've drafted Lance Moore in the 2nd round because of what he accomplished in the NFL when he was rightfully an UDFA.

As noted above, Mac Jones also checks the boxes for college career/ability. When the time comes my guess is he goes in the 15 to 25 range in the 1st round and is surely worth a late 1st round pick. 

[Raves]

1 minute ago, tyler735 said:

Yes guys like Dak, Cousins, Brees, Brady, Wilson, etc. were drafted after the 1st round. That was just bad evaluation by teams and most teams would surely be glad to take these guys much higher in a redraft. Also comparing him to a rich man's Kirk Cousins (what Cousins currently is) isn't the same as comparing him to Kirk Cousins as a prospect coming out. Jones is undoubtedly the better "prospect".

That said, many sites predict Mac Jones as a 1st/2nd round pick, so it's kind of a moot point as it's unlikely he doesn't go in the 1st 2 rounds from everything I've read.

As noted above, Mac Jones also checks the boxes for college career/ability. When the time comes my guess is he goes in the 15 to 25 range in the 1st round and is surely worth a late 1st round pick. 

The biggest knock and one that's warranted for Mac Jones is that he was surrounded by exceptional talent and was almost never pressured.  His abilities are 2nd/3rd round, his college career are a false 1st round due to having WRs that were always 5+ yards open or taking short screens for 20+ yards consistently.

Drafting him in the 1st is a mistake.  At least with guys like Trask and Lance you can see how they react to pressure/bad positions enough to know how'll they perform.

[tyler735]

2 hours ago, Raves said:

The biggest knock and one that's warranted for Mac Jones is that he was surrounded by exceptional talent and was almost never pressured.  His abilities are 2nd/3rd round, his college career are a false 1st round due to having WRs that were always 5+ yards open or taking short screens for 20+ yards consistently.

Yes much like Fields and Lawrence, he was surrounded by a ton of talent compared to his competition he was playing against. They all have had plenty of experience throwing to wide open receivers.

That said, that doesn't mean they are never pressured, never have chances to throw into tight windows, and have to make multiple reads to find the best option at times. 

Going through about 6 or 7 Mac Jones games last night, on top of his dominant national championship performance (against probably the best defense he has played against), I must say, he seems to possess the most important QB traits listed below.

The most important traits for a QB are:

Accuracy

Quick decision making

Pocket presence

Ability to read a defense

Anticipation 

 

Less important are:

Arm strength

Athleticism

They are certainly nice to have, but as long as a QB doesn't have a complete noodle arm like a Case Keenum (Mac Jones undoubtedly has a much better arm), then it's not really an issue...Especially if they are really accurate.

For me I think this 2nd throw below on the slant route is a perfect example of an NFL type throw,  especially in our system. Quickly gets through his 1st read, looked like he was looking to go to his RB, then resets and finds his WR in the middle of the field. Plenty of zip on the pass to fit it in between several Ole Miss defenders, Ball is out of his hands quickly, and by making that initial read to the right you can see the Ole Miss defender bite on it and drift towards the sideline creating some room for the throw to his receiver. 

These types of plays make his teams talent advantage irrelevant as they are just good QB plays regardless of talent. 

 

Interesting read from PFF here showing just how good Mac Jones has been this season

https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-alabama-crimson-tide-qb-mac-jones-best-in-cfb-history

 

"The Bama quarterback has thrown an uncatchable ball on just 18.7% of his 10-plus-yard passes, which is over four percentage points better than any other Power 5 quarterback since we began charting QB accuracy and ball location back in 2018.

Further cementing his place at the top is Jones' ability to limit negative plays. One of the most important and stable statistical measures to quarterback play is negatively graded throw rate, and there hasn’t been a better quarterback in that metric this season than the Crimson Tide passer. Not only does he lead all quarterbacks in negatively graded play rate this year, but he also leads every single QB of the PFF College era.

And all of this success isn’t entirely because he has open throw after open throw. He's actually thrown into a tight window on 15.2% of his passes this season, a rate that is about four percentage points higher than Tagovailoa's last season and is nearly double that of Justin Fields (8.3%) this year. Oh, and Jones has also been the most accurate passer on tight-window throws this season — by a large margin."

 

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Drafting him in the 1st is a mistake.  At least with guys like Trask and Lance you can see how they react to pressure/bad positions enough to know how'll they perform.

Disagree. Lance is a about as big of a bust risk as there is. He plays for a low division power house team and still doesn't look all that good as a passer. In terms of potential mistakes with a 1st round pick, he ranks pretty high. Trask compared with Jones doesn't look anywhere near as accurate, has a similar arm, and similar athletic ability, I see no reason for him to be on Jones's level as a prospect.

Edited January 12, 2021 by tyler735

[whodatworm23]

3 hours ago, Raves said:

And Kirk Cousins was rightfully drafted in the 3rd round.  Just because one player of a mold worked out doesn't mean you should overdraft the next person that looks like they'd be in a similar mold.  Mac Jones should be a 2nd/3rd round draft pick that you hope plays above their draft position.

I mean Brady was rightfully drafted in the 6th round based on his college career/abilities, he just massively outplayed his draft position.  It's like saying we should've drafted Lance Moore in the 2nd round because of what he accomplished in the NFL when he was rightfully an UDFA.

I don't agree with this logic... Then whats the point of learning from others mistakes? So Tony Romo was undrafted and he was manys comps for Joe Burrow last year and Joe went #1 overall. It dosent matter what colleges they went to or the accolades they achived while there but how they project to the NFL and if a player projects to a current player that in hindsight would have been a 1st rounder... Why would you then say, "well... Even tho Kirk Cousins woulda been a top 32 pick in hindsight the fact that he went in the 3rd round means I should not draft a player like Jones who I comp to Cousins in the top 32". That just sounds assinane to me to hhave that approach.

[Raves]

Ohio State's secondary was bad all year and their DL was missing 2 starters so not exactly a good comparison, especially since his WRs were often wide open.

He did make some good throws but I wouldn't put him and the tools he has above others.

[Raves]

2 hours ago, tyler735 said:

The most important traits for a QB are:

Accuracy

Quick decision making

Pocket presence

Ability to read a defense

Anticipation 

I'll give you Accuracy and Anticipation.

Quick decision making?  Not sure never really saw him pressured.

Pocket Presence?  One time Ohio State actually got pressure that I remember the ball was stripped.

Ability to read a defense?  Questionable as they had some pretty good play calls that got players that were constantly wide open and once again never really pressured to have to make a tough decision.

I'll give you I'd take him in the early 2nd after a trade back, but I wouldn't take him in the 1st.  IMO much closer to Leinart than he is Kirk Cousins.

[whodatworm23]

7 minutes ago, Raves said:

I'll give you Accuracy and Anticipation.

Quick decision making?  Not sure never really saw him pressured.

Pocket Presence?  One time Ohio State actually got pressure that I remember the ball was stripped.

Ability to read a defense?  Questionable as they had some pretty good play calls that got players that were constantly wide open and once again never really pressured to have to make a tough decision.

I'll give you I'd take him in the early 2nd after a trade back, but I wouldn't take him in the 1st.  IMO much closer to Leinart than he is Kirk Cousins.

If your willing to take him early 2nd... Then if he hits then how much do you value the 5th year option? Enough to take him a couple spots sooner?

 

Their are so many variables that go into drafting a QB and where you draft them.

[whodatworm23]

I still think its much to do about nothing however... Reports are pouting out in NOLA about how much Sean Payton wants Jamies Winston back in 2021 which reading between the lines tells me the following...

 

1. Payton has seen enough to realize Hill is not his future QB.

 

2. Payton has seen enough from Winston to give him his shot in 2021.

 

3. If Winston feels like he will bolt in FA the Saints are now in the rookie QB market.

[tyler735]

 

20 minutes ago, Raves said:

I'll give you Accuracy and Anticipation.

Quick decision making?  Not sure never really saw him pressured.

Pocket Presence?  One time Ohio State actually got pressure that I remember the ball was stripped.

Here's a few examples:

20 minutes ago, Raves said:

Ability to read a defense?  Questionable as they had some pretty good play calls that got players that were constantly wide open and once again never really pressured to have to make a tough decision.

There are several plays highlighting his ability to get through reads and manipulate defenders. He did a brilliant job on one of his touchdowns last night looking the safety off and throwing a beautiful deep ball for a touchdown. At 3:20 in this video is good breakdown of the play.

As for getting through his reads. Looks like he got through the whole field in a very short amount of time on this play despite being a bit off on the throw:

 

20 minutes ago, Raves said:

I'll give you I'd take him in the early 2nd after a trade back, but I wouldn't take him in the 1st.  IMO much closer to Leinart than he is Kirk Cousins.

Added this and some other stuff late to my last post, so reposting this part as it has some excellent info in it:

Interesting read from PFF here showing just how good Mac Jones has been this season

https://www.pff.com/news/college-football-alabama-crimson-tide-qb-mac-jones-best-in-cfb-history

 

"The Bama quarterback has thrown an uncatchable ball on just 18.7% of his 10-plus-yard passes, which is over four percentage points better than any other Power 5 quarterback since we began charting QB accuracy and ball location back in 2018.

Further cementing his place at the top is Jones' ability to limit negative plays. One of the most important and stable statistical measures to quarterback play is negatively graded throw rate, and there hasn’t been a better quarterback in that metric this season than the Crimson Tide passer. Not only does he lead all quarterbacks in negatively graded play rate this year, but he also leads every single QB of the PFF College era.

And all of this success isn’t entirely because he has open throw after open throw. He's actually thrown into a tight window on 15.2% of his passes this season, a rate that is about four percentage points higher than Tagovailoa's last season and is nearly double that of Justin Fields (8.3%) this year. Oh, and Jones has also been the most accurate passer on tight-window throws this season — by a large margin."

 

[whodatworm23]

Ive watched Jones all year... Hes a 1st round QB if you value accuracy, anticipation, ability to manipulate the pocket, distribution of the football and are ok with a lack of athleticism at the QB position. 

[tyler735]

29 minutes ago, whodatworm23 said:

I still think its much to do about nothing however... Reports are pouting out in NOLA about how much Sean Payton wants Jamies Winston back in 2021 which reading between the lines tells me the following...

 

1. Payton has seen enough to realize Hill is not his future QB.

 

2. Payton has seen enough from Winston to give him his shot in 2021.

 

3. If Winston feels like he will bolt in FA the Saints are now in the rookie QB market.

Mentioned this a few weeks ago on here, it may have been a strategy by Payton to play Hill this year given our cap situation as Payton seemed to consistently praise Winston's ability prior to Brees getting hurt. If we don't draft a QB my money is on Winston being our guy next year.

"Not usually one for "conspiracy theories", but I think part of the reason Winston didn't play while Brees was out is we probably couldn't afford him next year (our cap situation isn't ideal) if he went off in our offense like Teddy Bridgewater did last year. Given Sean Payton knew that while Brees was out, we would be playing the Falcons twice, the Broncos, and Eagles (by far the easiest stretch in our schedule), I'd imagine Payton had a belief that he could have some short term success with Taysom Hill during that span.

Especially since defenses didn't have any idea of how our offense would look with Hill behind center. Plenty of examples of QB's having some early success before defenses learn how to game plan for them. Also gave Payton a chance to stroke his ego and show how "smart" he is completely changing his offense briefly."

[Raves]

I'll argue that a "tight window" doesn't really count when it's a jump ball to a dominant WR.  I mean does a tight window mean the same thing when targeting CGM or Megatron as it does when targeting say Emmanuel Sanders or Robert Woods?

Though the uncatchable rate is a good one to use IMO.  But once again it's easier to do that when you aren't as rushed.

42 minutes ago, whodatworm23 said:

If your willing to take him early 2nd... Then if he hits then how much do you value the 5th year option? Enough to take him a couple spots sooner?

 

Their are so many variables that go into drafting a QB and where you draft them.

Probably not.  I mean the team has enough going on that unless I'm 100% sold on a QB I don't want to draft them in the 1st.  Honestly I don't know if I would want Fields in the 1st right now if it means we have to trade up for him.  With the salary crunch we'll be under the best option is to probably look to fill areas like OL/WR/Defense which are going to be losing quite a few key members due to being salary cap casualties it'd be best to look to address those problems in the draft this year and with the team likely taking a step back next year they'll be in a better position to draft a QB.

[whodatworm23]

Help me understand something... Why is it that Jones get knocked for the talent around him but Fields and Lawrence do not?

 

Yes its Alabama but this is also Clemson and Ohio State were talking about. All 3 are basically top 5 in recruiting each year. So sorry, im not buying that argument. Burrow had a ton of talent around him and he was doing fine in the NFL. Also this myth that Jones wasnt rushed this year is false and is made by people who really didnot watch Alabama all year. Many times Jones was rushed and moved off his spot. The difference... He didnt take off for a 8 yard run, he manipulated the pocket, slidr up or out, reset his feet and threw an accurate pass to his 2nd or 3rd option.

 

Another issue i have is yes he was throwing to Heisman winner. A guy thats not the biggest or the fastest. A guy that excels on technique, route running and timing. You know what you need to have a reviever like that have the year he had? A quarterback with great accuarcy and anticipation. 

[tyler735]

8 minutes ago, whodatworm23 said:

Help me understand something... Why is it that Jones get knocked for the talent around him but Fields and Lawrence do not?

Totally agree!

8 minutes ago, whodatworm23 said:

Yes its Alabama but this is also Clemson and Ohio State were talking about. All 3 are basically top 5 in recruiting each year. So sorry, im not buying that argument. Burrow had a ton of talent around him and he was doing fine in the NFL. Also this myth that Jones wasnt rushed this year is false and is made by people who really didnot watch Alabama all year. Many times Jones was rushed and moved off his spot. The difference... He didnt take off for a 8 yard run, he manipulated the pocket, slidr up or out, reset his feet and threw an accurate pass to his 2nd or 3rd option.

Yep he had an insane Burrow type season this year in a similar situation in terms of roster talent. Burrow is certainly a bit more athletic, but beyond that they have quite a few comparable high level traits.

Granted there's also a good chance NFL scouts are much higher on him than many draft pundits currently are, could be a Baker Mayfield situation where at one point in the draft process he was viewed as a mid to late 1st round prospect, then as the draft approached was viewed as a potential top pick. Could see Jones rising as the draft approaches.