Broncofan Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 (edited) We might not win the bid - but as I've said before - the contract Dak just got, and the contracts that Lamar Jackson & Baker Mayfield will get soon (and then followed by Kyler Murray & Josh Allen next year) - they're going to make Watson's 5/148M deal look like an absolute bargain, and likely as soon as 2022. I mentioned it before - but this is the new TV deal money teams are projecting. Once the cap returns to pre-Covid baseline, the new TV money is going to increase the cap in a HUGE way (it was supposed to be 210M and 220M for 2021 & 2022 before the 17th game came in - and the MNF & 17th game already increased the 2021 cap from 175M to likely 188M - and all losses from 2020 will be cleared after this year). MNF deal added 30 percent - apparently the Sunday deal is going to be at least 2x that increase. And TV revenues account for 60 percent of league overall revenue. And when revenue goes up, players get a 48 percent piece of that pie. So add it up - the 2023-24 cap is likely going to be north of 250M, if not higher. And it's not guesswork, this has been reported consistently. This probably sums up the NFL team's sentiment... Again, ppl can debate the pick/player price and if we can match the highest bid - but the argument of Watson's contract is actually the reverse - for 5/148M and the new wage scale we're about to see, that's getting top 5 QB play at what's likely going to be below-market price for a top 10 QB salary range. Edited March 9, 2021 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul-mac Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 7 hours ago, Broncofan said: We might not win the bid - but as I've said before - the contract Dak just got, and the contracts that Lamar Jackson & Baker Mayfield will get soon (and then followed by Kyler Murray & Josh Allen next year) - they're going to make Watson's 5/148M deal look like an absolute bargain, and likely as soon as 2022. I mentioned it before - but this is the new TV deal money teams are projecting. Once the cap returns to pre-Covid baseline, the new TV money is going to increase the cap in a HUGE way (it was supposed to be 210M and 220M for 2021 & 2022 before the 17th game came in - and the MNF & 17th game already increased the 2021 cap from 175M to likely 188M - and all losses from 2020 will be cleared after this year). MNF deal added 30 percent - apparently the Sunday deal is going to be at least 2x that increase. And TV revenues account for 60 percent of league overall revenue. And when revenue goes up, players get a 48 percent piece of that pie. So add it up - the 2023-24 cap is likely going to be north of 250M, if not higher. And it's not guesswork, this has been reported consistently. This probably sums up the NFL team's sentiment... Again, ppl can debate the pick/player price and if we can match the highest bid - but the argument of Watson's contract is actually the reverse - for 5/148M and the new wage scale we're about to see, that's getting top 5 QB play at what's likely going to be below-market price for a top 10 QB salary range. Debatable whether Watson is top 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsthomp2007 Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 After the Dak contract, Watson looks like a bargain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroncosFan2010 Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 Quote Debatable whether Watson is top 5. Its a debate either way, but he isnt lower than top-8, and at age 25 he is very likely to keep climbing those rankings as he ages. Kid is arguably top-5 and isnt even in his prime years yet. You could be getting a decade of top 5-8 play from him. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zukhyubern Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 10 hours ago, paul-mac said: Debatable whether Watson is top 5. How debatable? Can you name five QBs that are better than Watson? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsthomp2007 Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, Zukhyubern said: How debatable? Can you name five QBs that are better than Watson? Mahomes Rogers Brady Wilson J. Allen Lamar Ryan Brees Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncofan48 Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 1 minute ago, jsthomp2007 said: Mahomes Rogers Brady Wilson J. Allen Lamar Ryan Brees Not sure on Lamar, and 3 of these are on their way out of the league in the next few years even if Brady does play to 45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsthomp2007 Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 1 hour ago, broncofan48 said: Not sure on Lamar, and 3 of these are on their way out of the league in the next few years even if Brady does play to 45 Lamar was the MVP of the league last year, I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul-mac Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Zukhyubern said: How debatable? Can you name five QBs that are better than Watson? Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Wilson are all clearly better than Watson. Prescott, Murray, Tannehill, Ryan I'd have in the same tier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncofan48 Posted March 9, 2021 Share Posted March 9, 2021 3 hours ago, jsthomp2007 said: Lamar was the MVP of the league last year, I think. Yeah I'm probably wrong there, but I still have concerns about him holding up long term. I know he avoids hits pretty well but he's a skinny guy. If we're talking the next decade, in my opinion, Watson is at least on par with Lamar. Again just an opinion I'll probably end up regretting haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroncosFan2010 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 Quote Prescott, Murray, Tannehill, Ryan I'd have in the same tier Even if they were all the same age I dont think there is an argument for Tannehill or Ryan. I also think he is much more likely to go out and win a game than Prescott, who is much more of a game manager in my eyes. Kyler would be the only one that I think about, but thats due to age, projection and contract. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul-mac Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 I don't know where all this revisionist history on Deshaun Watson has come from. I mean he's very very good, but he's hardly Tom Brady and there are quite a few QBs who can help you win as many games as Watson. Plus the thing that really puts me off, do we really want to be trading for a locker room nuisance QB who demands trades and tries to whine his way out of town? We went through the exact same thing with Cutler and looking at his career after we moved him, we definitely were better off rid of him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broncos67 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 1 hour ago, paul-mac said: I don't know where all this revisionist history on Deshaun Watson has come from. I mean he's very very good, but he's hardly Tom Brady and there are quite a few QBs who can help you win as many games as Watson. Plus the thing that really puts me off, do we really want to be trading for a locker room nuisance QB who demands trades and tries to whine his way out of town? We went through the exact same thing with Cutler and looking at his career after we moved him, we definitely were better off rid of him. You are ignoring a bunch of key variables around age and contract. No one is saying he's Tom Brady. But he's 25 years old, on an inexpensive deal, and has played incredibly well for a disaster of a franchise with little talent on the offensive side of the ball, including leading his team to the playoffs. Yes, there are QBs who can win games, BUT over the longer term, Watson is a better investment than Brady, Ryan, maybe Rodgers, maybe Prescott given his contract, and Tannehill. Comparing Watson to Cutler is ludicrous and shows me you don't know the specifics of the situation. Watson isn't a locker room nuisance-- haven't heard one of his teammates have an issue with him. His problem is with the Houston FO, who, from all reports, told Watson he'd be involved in certain things and then turned around and went against those promises. JJ Watt leaving that mess of a franchise tells me all I need to know. Watson is doing exactly what Elway did for his career, by the way. And no one gives Elway grief for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jolly red giant Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 2 hours ago, paul-mac said: I don't know where all this revisionist history on Deshaun Watson has come from. I mean he's very very good, but he's hardly Tom Brady and there are quite a few QBs who can help you win as many games as Watson. Plus the thing that really puts me off, do we really want to be trading for a locker room nuisance QB who demands trades and tries to whine his way out of town? We went through the exact same thing with Cutler and looking at his career after we moved him, we definitely were better off rid of him. 1. I don't think anyone ever claimed he was Tom Brady 2. Of these QBs who would win as many games as Watson - how many are or potentially are available? 3. It is clear that Brady wielded a lot of influence within the Pats organisation (and has continued to do so in Tampa Bay). In the past couple of weeks Russell Wilson has effectively demanded a trade and Aaron Rodgers has questioned the actions of the Packers FO. Jerry Jones came out a couple of days ago and said that Zak had all the leverage in the negotiations and ended up getting $40m+ a year with $125m guaranteed. 4. There is zero evidence that Watson is a locker room nuisance. I remember reading somewhere that after Houston's last game of the season, JJ Watt apologised to Watson for the team wasting a year of his career. This is from a few days ago - "I love Deshaun. I love Deshaun," Watt said. "We speak often. He's an incredible player, but he's also an incredible person. He's a special human being, and he's obviously unbelievably talented as an athlete, but he is also just a great person. And I tell him, the one thing I want for Deshaun Watson is for him to be happy. He deserves it, and I want him to be happy. So whatever that looks like for him, that's what I want for him." The article went on to say - Watt is just one of many former teammates and mentors to speak on just how high Watson's character and professionalism as a player is. https://www.si.com/college/clemson/football/j-j-watt-reverberates-support-for-former-teammate-and-clemson-tigers-qb-deshaun-watson-i-want-him-to-be-happy 5. As Broncos67 said - comparing Watson with Cutler is ludicrous - and is also correct when he said that nobody had a problem when Elway told the Colts he wouldn't play for them and then when they selected him, he demanded a trade, threatening to play baseball if they refused. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted March 10, 2021 Share Posted March 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, jolly red giant said: . As Broncos67 said - comparing Watson with Cutler is ludicrous - and is also correct when he said that nobody had a problem when Elway told the Colts he wouldn't play for them and then when they selected him, he demanded a trade, threatening to play baseball if they refused. I agree with most of what you both said but this comparison is god awful. Elway was using leverage he had entering the drafts in two different sports kinda a Murray comparison. He used the other sport to leverage his was out he never signed a contract. Watson literally signed a contract last august knowing Easterby was in the organization. That's not even a year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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